A Big "What If" Concerning Middlebrooks, Bogaerts and Drew; What Would You Do?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to Bill-806's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As  DAD would say ..........  "SON, in 1967 Dick Williams gave a few kids the keys, and the Red Sox NATION was born and the rest is HISTORY" !!!!    Why, all this talk about holding the "kids back"????    Baseball is now going with the "youth" more than the tired vets !!     IMO  !!

    [/QUOTE]


    By the way -- who are the veterans out there who can't get a job because team are going with youth?

    Name ONE -- just one.

     

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fizsh. Show fizsh's posts

    Re: A Big

    If Middlebrooks has a good spring as in your scenario, it may give the Sox an opportunity to trade him as well.  If there is no good deal to be had, then yes Bogaerts starts in AAA and Middlebrooks is the starter at 3B.  During the season the Sox can then see what opens up in the trade market for both Drew and Middlebrooks if Bogaerts continues to improve in AAA.  After a while though, I think he has to be on the major league squad.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Big

    Sell high on Middlebrooks...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: A Big

    Drew starts at SS and Middlebrooks at 3b while Bogarts goes to Pawtucket.  In fact, I'd be tempted to send Bogarts to Pawtucket anyway, long enough to gain that extra year of team control. 

    The Red Sox have very little leverage with Boras but one thing they can do is to hold these "kids" who are his clients back a year if there's any doubt at all about their ability to play at the ML level.  That would defer their entry into MLB and Boras Payday by a year - or maybe more than one year. 

    Possibly some of the "kids" would sign with other agents if they saw that signing with Boras could keep them out of the Majors for a year or two.  I'd even be tempted to send JBJ down for another year for that same reason.

    IMO it may be time to start fighting fire with fire with Mr. Boras.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sell high on Middlebrooks...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why? If he's the player of the final two months of last year or the first three month of 2012, why would you want to trade a RH power hitting 3B. They're hard to find nowadays.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sell high on Middlebrooks...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why? If he's the player of the final two months of last year or the first three month of 2012, why would you want to trade a RH power hitting 3B. They're hard to find nowadays.

    [/QUOTE]


    People forget how tough a write injury can be on a player, even when they come back it can take them up to a year to recover at the plate.  That same injury that WMB indured seemed to take an entire season away from Big Papi until he was back to normal.  People forget he was the #1 ranked prospect in our system 2 years ago for good reason...if he is showing that in ST then I think the move you make is you trade Drew.

    Yes we could send Boggy down...but why? what else does he have to prove?

     

    At this point we are rationilizing keeping Drew in a hypothetical scanerio in which we have zero use for him

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jgallag1. Show jgallag1's posts

    Re: A Big

    In this case I don't sign Drew to begin with. I like Drew, and I think he's a good player, but this is the time to build towards the future. Papi won't be around forever, and Pedroia is 31. This is the time to be letting your future stars and team leaders blossom. If they think x Bo can't benefit from any more time in the minors, then he is your starting SS, and Middlebrooks is your starting 3B. If Middlebrooks doesn't work out, then you have Cechini waiting in the wings for his time. And if he does, then he can move to 1st or DH in in a couple of years.

    With the goodwill built up by a WS win, you now have a year or two buffer to replenish from within, like they did when they brought up Youk and Pedroia...Lester...Buch..etc. They may not have instant success, but the franchise is better off for it in the long run.

     

    All in all, it's definitely a nice problem to have.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from lasitter. Show lasitter's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    "Again, we should take the draft pick and give the kids a chance."
    I'm all in for this.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think you trade Drew, maybe not right away.....but there are plenty of teams that would love that upgrade.  at least that is what I would do. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't understand the trade Logic? Why would a team trade for Drew? They would have to assume his contract AND give up assets. That same team could simply sign Drew now and NOT give up assets. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't understand the trade Logic? Why would a team trade for Drew? They would have to assume his contract AND give up assets. That same team could simply sign Drew now and NOT give up assets. 

    [/QUOTE]

    This is a very easy question to answer.

    All you have to do is recall that Oakland traded for Drew in August 2012, assuming about 25% of his 2012 salary, or about $2 million, and giving up a prospect they had drafted in the 17th round.  

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Kingface12. Show Kingface12's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think you trade Drew, maybe not right away.....but there are plenty of teams that would love that upgrade.  at least that is what I would do. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't understand the trade Logic? Why would a team trade for Drew? They would have to assume his contract AND give up assets. That same team could simply sign Drew now and NOT give up assets. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Simple:

    1) Injuries

    2) The other teams current SS is not as good as they hoped

    3) Trying to make a playoff push and need defense to shore up the middle

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sell high on Middlebrooks...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why? If he's the player of the final two months of last year or the first three month of 2012, why would you want to trade a RH power hitting 3B. They're hard to find nowadays.

    [/QUOTE]

    The concern is that WMB's only asset is power.  What if he's Mark Reynolds with a better glove?  Reynolds is out there without a team.  If he was our everyday third baseman I'm  sure he would pop 25-30 HR's, but that doesn't make it a good idea.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: A Big

    I don't understand the eagerness to trade Middlebrooks. The guy has great power but is coming off a wrist injury. Isn't this the same guy everyone was falling all over themselves for in 2012 when he was doing great. Injuries are part of the game and sometimes when a player comes off an injury ( especially wrist/arm/shoulder) it takes time to get everything back.  Middy has great power. To me that is reason enough to keep him at least for another season.

    To me..those talking trade for Middlebrooks reveal themselves as fair weather fans.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to rkarp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't understand the trade Logic? Why would a team trade for Drew? They would have to assume his contract AND give up assets. That same team could simply sign Drew now and NOT give up assets. 

    [/QUOTE]

    This is a very easy question to answer.

    All you have to do is recall that Oakland traded for Drew in August 2012, assuming about 25% of his 2012 salary, or about $2 million, and giving up a prospect they had drafted in the 17th round.  

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If the Sox sign Drew in the next 10-30 days, I am going to venture we would see something in the 2/$22 range. 

    If Drew is starting at SS for the Sox, do you seriously see them trading him for a 17th round draft choice? 

    Until WMid and Boegardts are firmly established, I can't see the Sox moving Drew. Maybe if he does sign with the Sox for 2 years, the Sox would trade him after this season.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sell high on Middlebrooks...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why? If he's the player of the final two months of last year or the first three month of 2012, why would you want to trade a RH power hitting 3B. They're hard to find nowadays.

    [/QUOTE]


    People forget how tough a write injury can be on a player, even when they come back it can take them up to a year to recover at the plate.  That same injury that WMB indured seemed to take an entire season away from Big Papi until he was back to normal.  People forget he was the #1 ranked prospect in our system 2 years ago for good reason...if he is showing that in ST then I think the move you make is you trade Drew.

    Yes we could send Boggy down...but why? what else does he have to prove?

     

    At this point we are rationilizing keeping Drew in a hypothetical scanerio in which we have zero use for him

    [/QUOTE]

     

    And not long before that, he was not ranked in the top ten at all.

     

    He had one terific minor league season, and spent less time as a ranked prospect that a lot of other less distinguished names (Lars Anderson, for example).  

     

    And he still has the same major flaws in his game, even back then.  Yes, he has power.  but he does not have good plate dicipline, strike zone recongnition, or contact ability.  That has ALWAYS been there, and his ability to go through off-and-on hot stretches that make or break his season is what he has always gotten by on.

     

    Middlebrooks does not have a skillset I have a lot of faith in, and his red hot 2012 that rocketed him through the system appears to be more of the utlier than the norm.  Unless you look beyond the traditional split, and then the flaws are still there...

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If Drew returns, it's safe to say he'd likely be the starting SS.

    So conventional wisdom has Bogaerts becoming the starting 3B with Middlebrooks being the odd man out.

    But WHAT IF ...

     

    In spring training, Middlebrooks is tearing it up, batting .400 and ripping the ball all over the place and playing decent defense. Meanwhile, Bogaerts is struggling -- poor at-bats, hitting under .200. Who would you start at 3B?

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    End of the day it's safe to assume IF the Sox sign Drew that it'll impact both Bogaerts and Middlebrook's chances of being penciled in as the starters when camp opens. Until then it's safe to assume that both will be counted on to man the leftside of the infield...

    your WHAT IF Middlebrook's is tearing it up this spring and Boagaerts struggles senerio (assuming Drew is on the roster). Won't impact the organizations long term plans regarding one or the other.

    First off, Middlebrooks has already shown the ability to go on a tear for a month or so before cooling off and slumping. So his hitting 400 this spring wouldn't be all that surprising...His challenge is to prove that he can sustain his production over the coarse of an entire season and figure out how to make adjustments, be more consistent and lessen the valleys while maintaining his peaks. End of the day sans Drew and assuming Middlebrooks is the opening day 3B the true test is how well he hits in the first half of the season and has he shown improvements with his plate discipline.... if he opens the year on a tear, then slumps for two months and hits below .200 my guess his chances of securing his spot on the team and being the 3B of the now and future will be in doubt....

    As for the second part of your WHAT IF. While it's possible that Bogaerts regresses and struggles this spring, given his track record, I don't see him struggling for two months. If the Sox see him as ready with little or no upside for him to play in Pawtucket...Bogaerts not unlike when Pedrioa was brought up will be given the chance to play everyday and allow his true ability to emerge...

    Finally, back to the hypothetical of WHAT IF the Sox sign Drew, depending on the terms and length of the deal.  My guess is that heading into spring training the Sox will have already made the decision on where they see Bogaerts playing both in near and long term. We might well have seen the future in the postseason when Boggy replaced the slumping Middlebrooks. 

    We'll soon find out....

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to miscricket's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To me..those talking trade for Middlebrooks reveal themselves as fair weather fans.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think it's a question of being a fair weather fan.  I just happen to like Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, like on that team that, you know, won the World Series.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to miscricket's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To me..those talking trade for Middlebrooks reveal themselves as fair weather fans.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think it's a question of being a fair weather fan.  I just happen to like Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, like on that team that, you know, won the World Series.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Touché 

    That said, I'm fine either way...it's not like they can't address under performace or defensive liabilities if one or the other struggles or it's seen as a fatal flaw in our chances to compete for a playoff spot. 

    Personally, I would like to see Bogaerts and Middlebrooks over Drew, simply because if both prove themselves worthy, it frees up millions to invest in other more pressing needs like starting pitching begining in 2015 and almost as important free up resources to bolster thier ability to sign or acquire an impact middle of the order bat to replace the inevitable decline of Ortiz...Who is now entering the twilight of his career...

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: A Big

    If the Sox resign Drew, the Contract is very important, to net Good Prospects down the road, if the Sox look to trade.
    It has to be Team friendly in years and money.
    One year deal at this point makes no sense, 2 years not bad, I'm thinking more like a 3 year deal at 9M a year, would be an easy contract to move.

    Gives the Sox leverage for Prospects.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from miscricket. Show miscricket's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to miscricket's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To me..those talking trade for Middlebrooks reveal themselves as fair weather fans.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think it's a question of being a fair weather fan.  I just happen to like Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, like on that team that, you know, won the World Series.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I see what you are saying...but I don't believe in making long term decisions based on a small sample size...even if that small sample size is the World Series. Don't forget..they all (including Middy) made contributions to you know..get the Sox to the point of being in the World Series in the first place.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to miscricket's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To me..those talking trade for Middlebrooks reveal themselves as fair weather fans.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think it's a question of being a fair weather fan.  I just happen to like Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, like on that team that, you know, won the World Series.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not getting that one either.  I liked Iggy, thought we lost value on the trade, but still pretty happy we won the WS.  I wouldn't care to trade the oldtimers, but none of the kids have earned any tenure or anything.  You always have to build for the future.  If someone like WMB can get us a 20 year old rightfielder prospect who will play for us from 2016-2021, why wouldn't anyone do it?  We had 48 players on the team last year.  Not all 48 are keepers.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to miscricket's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    To me..those talking trade for Middlebrooks reveal themselves as fair weather fans.

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think it's a question of being a fair weather fan.  I just happen to like Drew at SS and Bogey at 3B, like on that team that, you know, won the World Series.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not getting that one either.  I liked Iggy, thought we lost value on the trade, but still pretty happy we won the WS.  I wouldn't care to trade the oldtimers, but none of the kids have earned any tenure or anything.  You always have to build for the future.  If someone like WMB can get us a 20 year old rightfielder prospect who will play for us from 2016-2021, why wouldn't anyone do it?  We had 48 players on the team last year.  Not all 48 are keepers.

    [/QUOTE]

    It's only natural for fans to pull for homegrown players and show loyalty to them almost to a fault. I think it's a paternal instict or rooted in our evolution from hunters to gatherers...

    Those same loyalist are also quick to gut the same players when they fail....

    My own personal feelings are that prospects have but one purpose and that is to serve the greater good of the major league team, in the now and the future. I root for the name on the front of the jersey...My loyalty is to the Boston Red Sox Baseball Club of the American League.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from royf19. Show royf19's posts

    Re: A Big

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to royf19's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sell high on Middlebrooks...

    [/QUOTE]


    Why? If he's the player of the final two months of last year or the first three month of 2012, why would you want to trade a RH power hitting 3B. They're hard to find nowadays.

    [/QUOTE]


    People forget how tough a write injury can be on a player, even when they come back it can take them up to a year to recover at the plate.  That same injury that WMB indured seemed to take an entire season away from Big Papi until he was back to normal.  People forget he was the #1 ranked prospect in our system 2 years ago for good reason...if he is showing that in ST then I think the move you make is you trade Drew.

    Yes we could send Boggy down...but why? what else does he have to prove?

     

    At this point we are rationilizing keeping Drew in a hypothetical scanerio in which we have zero use for him

    [/QUOTE]

     

    And not long before that, he was not ranked in the top ten at all.

     

    He had one terific minor league season, and spent less time as a ranked prospect that a lot of other less distinguished names (Lars Anderson, for example).  

     

    And he still has the same major flaws in his game, even back then.  Yes, he has power.  but he does not have good plate dicipline, strike zone recongnition, or contact ability.  That has ALWAYS been there, and his ability to go through off-and-on hot stretches that make or break his season is what he has always gotten by on.

     

    Middlebrooks does not have a skillset I have a lot of faith in, and his red hot 2012 that rocketed him through the system appears to be more of the utlier than the norm.  Unless you look beyond the traditional split, and then the flaws are still there...

    [/QUOTE]

    I think it's unfair to say he had just one terrific year in the minors. Not all prospects are going to tear it up from the get go. His minor league trek was that of consistent improvement from on year to the next as he went on to higher level.

    His only hiccup was 16 games in Pawtucket at the end of 2011 but then he was great at the start of 2012.

    Middlebrooks was then great in the first three months in the majors of 2012 before he got hurt then the last two months 2013. The only time he struggled the last two years was the first two months of 2013. So why isn't that the outlier, rather than all the times he's been good.

    As for flaws, all players have flaws. He's going to strike out a lot, but so do a lot of players nowadays. As for OBP, his career OBP for about 1,900 minor league PAs is .332 to go along with a .275 BA. It's not a great leap to suggest he can do that in the majors.

    He was .288/.325 in three months of 2012 and .276/.329 in the last two months last year. With his power, that's very acceptable, and players do get better. There still seems to be more evidence that the two months at the beginning of last year is the outlier when you consider his coming back from the wrist injury and the stereotypical sophomore slump. Teams made an adjustment on how to pitch to him and it took him awhile to adjust.

    But when you look at how he ended the year, it's pretty good evidence that he learned to make adjustments too.

     

     

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