A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    m
     
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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]To me, reserve OF usually are easily available for around $1 mil. Kapler and I believe most of our recent reserve OF have been in that range, even the typical #4. For this reason, why would someone give up a good catcher to pay Cam $7.5M when they can get close to that for $1-2M? The reasons you use to want to get rid of Cam are the same reasons nobody will trade a good catcher for him and his contract. We lose a very important RH platoon bat for sure but we still had McDonald and Linares who both projected to be close to the same RH bats at this point in their careers, for well over $6.5 mil less per year. The problem is we need a righty bat for Drew and Crawford, as well as for Salty an maybe Papi as the season pregresses. DMac fills one slot: Linares is not a sure thing. Cameron, at 39 years old, is probably not the same bat he was in Milwaukee 2 years ago, in a very cozy HR park. Again, so why would someone give up a helpful catcher for him? Isn't Fenway a cozy HR park also? Cameron could well be a starter on a lot of teams and we had likely problems at catcher. I would rather they picked up a guy like Russell Martin with the cash Cameron was costing even if we had to eat his salary. 1) In hindsight, so far, it seems like Martin was a great choice. I had pushed for a catcher pick up all winter long. 2) If we ate some of Crawford's salary, or most of it, we could have signed Martin and broke about even, cost wise. 3) Linares has not done well so far in AAA. DMac has not done great either. Good platoon catchers are generally available in the $3-4 mil range. Even Russell Martin ended up costing under $6 mil if I remember correctly. I heard he didn't want to play here. That's where I was coming from.  In theory, I agree boom. I' like to have a $7Mcatcher instead of Cam as well, but then we'd need another righy bat a well... who? and at what cost?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I was assuming we would have to eat some of Cameron's salary and if the deals were not there then we live with it. I never expected someone to pick him up at full salary.

    The Right handed bat could have been a catcher!

    I don't see Crawford as a platoon player almost at all. They have to play him 150 games or more. Anything else and why pay him $142 mil?

    I do not see that much difference between Cameron and the other reserve OF we have available. He's 39 years old. He's probably regressing some since Milwaukee and he played in a big hitters park then for RH hitters. I think he would be very unlikely to be even a 15 HR guy this year even if he played 150 games. He's 39. He may be pretty close to being finished by now and I would prefer to not be in that position, relying on him a lot this year. Even if he's in shape physically, the eye sight and reflexes start going. He probably is close to the end of his career at this point IMO.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I'm projecting a big year from Ellsbury. He plays nearly every game in my book. Even if he hits over .300 with 20 HR, softy ( baseball GM ) will dump on him daily.
     
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    Ranaudo got shelled today. No HR but lots of hits. 6 runs in under 2 innings. He's not going to see AAA ball any time soon!

    Still a tremendous prospect but I think they slotted him correctly. He's not used to pitching every 5th day. He needs to get used to the routine.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I don't see Crawford as a platoon player almost at all. They have to play him 150 games or more. Anything else and why pay him $142 mil?

    Just because he is getting paid way more now won't make him a plus .700 hitter vs LHPs. He's a platoon player that wont be platooned because of the money, but that doesn't change what he is and should be.

    Since he will play, he makes it more necessary to get a big RH'd bat.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

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    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II : The smart fans never wanted Cameron to be traded.
    Posted by Hfxsoxnut[/QUOTE]

    However the smarter than smart fans never wanted to sign Cameron.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    This current edition simply can't rise to expectation. The team reminds me of a scenario where one buys a brand new car. The owner expects a flawless performance. That's what he's paying out the azz for.

    The car has a problem right off the bat. So, the owner brings it back to the manufacturer to resolve it. He's agitated to no end. He gets the car back, and it purrs like a kitten.

    Then the problem resurfaces. The owner can't understand why they can't find the problem. And the more inconsistent the car performs, the more frustrated he gets.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    This current edition simply can't rise to expectation. The team reminds me of a scenario where one buys a brand new car. The owner expects a flawless performance. That's what he's paying out the azz for.

    The car has a problem right off the bat. So, the owner brings it back to the manufacturer to resolve it. He's agitated to no end. He gets the car back, and it purrs like a kitten.

    Then the problem resurfaces. The owner can't understand why they can't find the problem. And the more inconsistent the car performs, the more frustrated he gets.

    It's still too early, but I get the feeling of frustration. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Today, we turn it around.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

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    The starting pitching this team is getting, if there is no long DL to any of the starters, is going to take it places. The Mariners are going nowhere. That's what anyone who has followed baseball a long time is able to discern.

    1. Pen is truly deeper, even with a dead weight like Wakefield. This will pay dividends as dogdays approach. Oki looks healthy and Eck was very impressed and complimentary. Eck should be hired and Remdog fired. Eck calls it like he sees it and is very good at what he does. If they get Orsillo to stop giggling and bellowing, they'll have something.

    2. Cameron should not have been sitting the next night after the 2 homers, even against the righty. Cameron still offers speed, good defense, good arm, in addition to good career slugging v. LHP.  

    3. The "game changer/speed" notion is one of the worse urban legends in baseball. It was on base, and didn't change a zero.

    4. The starting pitching staff looks solid, and if healthy for most of the season, will take this team past the current pretenders.

    5. Tito isn't very good at taking veterans and getting them to play with enthusiasm. He's good at keeping things calm, but this team needs to knock off the robotic "I'm a professional" approach and start enjoying the game more and playing with enthusiasm. Pedroia and Ortiz are islands, in that regard. And that comment has nothing to do with where the team is in April.

    6. Fenway in April does not work as a big boost to an over lefty balanced lineup. 

    7. Crawford is too young and talented not to get at or near the bottom of his career standard deviations. However, there is noting about this guy that is superstar performance. His swing is terrible, but he has a powerful athletic body to compensate to a degree. His defense was overrated as he is not graceful and efficient at all in running routes to the ball. He'll have his season moments, but long term, whatever 2 year value they have left in Ellsbury will need to be shipped off to help cushion the blow of what has to be one of the most completely non sequitur GM decisions on record. Also note that Crawford, though in his late twenties, is not young in baseball mileage. Theo's PR stunt on "speed ages slower than power" will most surely be refuted. It depends upon the player, his natural athletic talents and motions, and the mileage on the particular player.

    8. Another brilliant pitching performance from Salty, starter and pen.

    9. Wheeler was a good value move and fit.

    10.Wakefield finally leaves the de facto DL for one spot start. Given the restrictions imposed on pen depth over the first month, hardly a defensible way to manage a 25 man active roster. AAA or a pen profile like Aceves is the way to handle spot stats. Not old man Wakefield. Nothing Wakeifeld does in every blue boom starts validates the decision to park Wakefield on the de facto DL between spot starts.

    I wish all my good fellows and friends here at the BG good health, weather, and the enjoyment that comes from the long and entertaining jourey of another long Red Sox season. Cheerio!      

    PS: For all you ladies that love reading GM's commentary, remember, Prince Harry is still available. Don't give up on the pipe dream of wealth, prestige and royalty. Having to live lives with dull husbands or wives that share the social background you privately are ashamed of is not necessarily set in stone. You, too, could be the envy of all your girlfriends and get that special call from Prince Harry. If Kate Middleton can do it, you, too, can do it.        

    Currently doing paperwork and listening to an old episode of Batman, with special guest star, Liberace. He's working a number on Aunt Harriet.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Don't expect the cyber gals to be knocking UR door down. But good luck anyway.
    The Batman/Harriet line was UR best. Liberace still has his celluloid pedestal.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Man needs to understand how the female mind works, at a very young age. And Women need to understand how the male mind works, at a very young age. The Bible tells one what to do, but the hormones interfere with logic and wisdom.

    GM has a big day tomorrow, sweet dreams to all of my kind friends. It's tough job trying to get fans to insist on Theo mistake corrections, but someone has to do it. Going to Bible study in the morning, golf match with my good young friend from Maine, in the afternoon, then do what Theo can't do, play some smoking guitar for "Big Oil & Skin from the Game".  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    The starting pitching this team is getting, if there is no long DL to any of the starters, is going to take it places. The Mariners are going nowhere. That's what anyone who has followed baseball a long time is able to discern.

    1. Pen is truly deeper, even with a dead weight like Wakefield. This will pay dividends as dogdays approach. Oki looks healthy and Eck was very impressed and complimentary. Eck should be hired and Remdog fired. Eck calls it like he sees it and is very good at what he does. If they get Orsillo to stop giggling and bellowing, they'll have something.

    2. Cameron should not have been sitting the next night after the 2 homers, even against the righty. Cameron still offers speed, good defense, good arm, in addition to good career slugging v. LHP.  

    He's also been over .400 on OBP vs LHPs much of the last few years.

    3. The "game changer/speed" notion is one of the worse urban legends in baseball. It was on base, and didn't change a zero.

    It can work at times: other times not. It's not useless and involves more than just SBs.

    4. The starting pitching staff looks solid, and if healthy for most of the season, will take this team past the current pretenders.

    I agree. April is month for flash-in-the-pans. Thy will fizzle soon enough.

    5. Tito isn't very good at taking veterans and getting them to play with enthusiasm. He's good at keeping things calm, but this team needs to knock off the robotic "I'm a professional" approach and start enjoying the game more and playing with enthusiasm. Pedroia and Ortiz are islands, in that regard. And that comment has nothing to do with where the team is in April.

    I agree. I think he is too serious looking at times an that rubs off.

    6. Fenway in April does not work as a big boost to an over lefty balanced lineup. 

    Twar air and wind diection will change soon watch out.

    7. Crawford is too young and talented not to get at or near the bottom of his career standard deviations. However, there is noting about this guy that is superstar performance. His swing is terrible, but he has a powerful athletic body to compensate to a degree. His defense was overrated as he is not graceful and efficient at all in running routes to the ball. He'll have his season moments, but long term, whatever 2 year value they have left in Ellsbury will need to be shipped off to help cushion the blow of what has to be one of the most completely non sequitur GM decisions on record. Also note that Crawford, though in his late twenties, is not young in baseball mileage. Theo's PR stunt on "speed ages slower than power" will most surely be refuted. It depends upon the player, his natural athletic talents and motions, and the mileage on the particular player.

    I agree. It was not a good signing. It has nothing to do with his slow start.

    8. Another brilliant pitching performance from Salty, starter and pen.

    I am liking Salty more and more. The better he does, the less we need to rely on VTek, and he can perform better when used less.

    9. Wheeler was a good value move and fit.

    Relief pitchers are almost always a gamble, but it was a good gamble. I hope he has an up year.

    10.Wakefield finally leaves the de facto DL for one spot start. Given the restrictions imposed on pen depth over the first month, hardly a defensible way to manage a 25 man active roster. AAA or a pen profile like Aceves is the way to handle spot stats. Not old man Wakefield. Nothing Wakeifeld does in every blue boom starts validates the decision to park Wakefield on the de facto DL between spot starts.

    What would Wake have to do this year to make you apologize?
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Man needs to understand how the female mind works, at a very young age. And Women need to understand how the male mind works, at a very young age. The Bible tells one what to do, but the hormones interfere with logic and wisdom. GM has a big day tomorrow, sweet dreams to all of my kind friends. It's tough job trying to get fans to insist on Theo mistake corrections, but someone has to do it. Going to Bible study in the morning, golf match with my good young friend from Maine, in the afternoon, then do what Theo can't do, play some smoking guitar for "Big Oil & Skin from the Game".  
    Posted by BaseballGM[/QUOTE]

    Perhaps this will motivate you:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_tC-Bp-Lk4&feature=related
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from YOUKILLUS20. Show YOUKILLUS20's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

     With a month into the season played, a few lessons can be learned from the experience, and applied to right the ship. The line-up is unbalanced, the juggling and rigging to generate something really questions the roster construction. Carl Crawford was not signed without understanding where he would hit. In Tampa he batted leadoff like, never. Hitching him to Ellsburry to have speed at the top was a simpleton's pipe dream. Crawford will return to form, and hitting him third, where he is comfortable, and where he can take two bases or three when the power guys behind him do what they do will put some needed runs on the scoreboard. The second realization that must be accepted RIGHT NOW, is that Gonzales is still re-habbing from surgery. He presently is the second coming of Jose Offerman, go ahead, and loook it up, Jose first season with the Sox, and first April, was hitting .341 1 HR and 12 RBI. Putting this guy in the four hole is a mistake although may be a nod to respect. Respect this year, BTW is winless I might point out. Youkilis needs to be the lead-off hitter, the guy gets on base, can go yard and get you a quick lead or an answer to the opponents early start.
    The new and best line-up looks like this:

    Youk 3B
    Pedroia 2B
    Crawford LF
    Ortiz DH
    Lowrie SS
    Gonzales 1B
    Cam/Drew RF
    Salty C
    Ellsburry CF
     When Ells is on with a single, he gets plenty of pitches to steal second because Youk is up and taking pitches anyways, When Crawford is on base, a hole is opened up for Ortiz on the right side, negating the shift, and Gonzales can work on driving the ball as his shoulder recovers without any RBI pressure. Lowrie in the middle of the lineup, by virtue of being a switch hitter reduces the effectiveness of the opponent's bullpen L/R match-ups. The above line-up addresses the present make-up of the team REALISTICALLY, and not through the prism of what might be.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Crawford should never bat 3rd, especially vs LHPs. He did on TB because it was either Longoria 3rd and Crawford 4th or vice versa. There was no choice in TB: the is here.

    Even when Crawford hits like he did in 2010, we have about 10 better hitters to bat 3rd than Crawford vs LHPs and about 3-4 vs RHPs. No way-No how!
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    m
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    If it wasn't unthinkable for lots of non-performance issues right now Crawford should be batting 9th when Salty plays not 8th. If he got on base you have the back-to-back speedster effect. Right now he is the worst hitter on the team except for TEk, it is so bad it hurts to watch.

    This won't always be the case but the right guy is hitting three. In fact the top of the order seems OK even when Crawford eventually gets on track.

    To me the very fact that the RS struggled so much to find the right place in the order for CC, toyed with batting him 3rd when they have guys like Youk and A-Gon speaks to what a strange signing this was at $$$ and years it was done at.

    This team is very frustrating, playing well below the abilities of the parts. Down right painful to lose last night, have Wake going today against Felix. Wake when he is going good will usually need about 4 runs in support and that right now feels like a tall order. Maybe the reverse lock applies or BDC will light up with more negative Wake threads. 
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    u
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from -The-Babe----. Show -The-Babe----'s posts

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    I think we can just sum it all up by saying, "Realistically, this team sux".

    Just like last year moonpie and friends will spin all these stats that "show" that the red flops aren't as bad as they really are.

    This is probably the most "realistic" post on this thread.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from ChrisHouse. Show ChrisHouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Ellsbury is hitting .389 (14-for-36) over an eight-game hitting streak he carried into Saturday night's game with the Mariners at Fenway Park. That's the longest streak for any Red Sox hitter so far, and it's kept him at the top of the lineup, a spot he was removed from earlier in the season.

    "It's a short, quick stroke," manager Terry Francona said. "He hasn't been afraid to hit deep into the count. There's been a few strikeouts because of it, but he's worked the count real well."

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    Tito, blowing up his player with hyberbole and short sample snipets. Ellsbury's swing will be a life-long reverse pivot.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from sunslav. Show sunslav's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Ellsbury is hitting .389 (14-for-36) over an eight-game hitting streak he carried into Saturday night's game with the Mariners at Fenway Park. That's the longest streak for any Red Sox hitter so far, and it's kept him at the top of the lineup, a spot he was removed from earlier in the season. "It's a short, quick stroke," manager Terry Francona said. "He hasn't been afraid to hit deep into the count. There's been a few strikeouts because of it, but he's worked the count real well."
    Posted by ChrisHouse[/QUOTE]

    He's been hot.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2011: Part II

    I recall a game last year that felt similar to this situation today.
    Posters were in turmoil and the odds were stacked against us.

    The Sox were in 4th place at 23-21 (8.5 GB).
    The Sox were at Philly vs a hot Roy Halladay.
    Wakefield was out starter.

    Wake's line that day: 8 IP  5 Hits  0 ERs  2 BB and the win.

    3 days later, the Sox got to 5.5 GB, a few days after that 3.5 GB, then the injuries took over.


    Go WAKE!
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

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