A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    hill,

       What's your take on this situation:

    We have 8 opening day locks for the staff barring injury or trade(s):
    Beck, Lest, Buch, Bard, Aceves, Bailey, Melan & Jenks
    That leaves 4 slots, but we have 5 guys with no ptions left:
    Doubront
    Morales
    Albers
    Atchison
    Bowden
    Plus we have A. Miller (nonguaranteed contract) and Tazawa (2 options)

    I like Tazwa to make the opening day roster, so we may have just 2-3 slots for the 5 guys listed above. Do you think any are worth anything in trade? Is it possible some team would team 3 for 1? (If yes, anyone in mind?) How about a trade of Sweeney, Atchison and Bowden for a better RP or a RP and a RH'd RF'er?

    I know us Sox fans tend to overvalue our prospects, but are these gusy worth anything?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I look forward for someone to diminish Bayleys numbers based on venue and division.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I look forward for someone to diminish Bayleys numbers based on venue and division.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    It was already done weeks ago.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Gracers1225. Show Gracers1225's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Great thread first of all! I personlly like this as our rotation next year if the team doesn't pick up another starter.
    Lester
    Beckett
    Buchholz
    Bard
    Doubront

    I am not sure if it has been mentioned and I would hate to lose him, but I feel we could get a decent package together with Aceves in a trade.  The team does have Matsuzaka coming back and I know he is not dependable but can bring some depth. I also understand that we can't count on Doubrant and Bard to throw 200+ innings so even more (obvious) depth is needed. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Maine, a big rain two nights ago washed away all the snow.  Now it's bare ground and about 5 degrees--ouch!  Not a great time to hit a baseball but a great time to talk about baseball.  I for one hope RS will build present team as strong as possible and not count at all on anyone who might come back.  If pitching comes back strong, then great, that's a great situation.  Also I have always liked Doubie and Bowden with no background knowledge of pitching to support my views--just a feeling that they could be good.  I am hoping that Valentine with new perspective might be a key to turning these guys around; I hope he and the new pitching coach might build some fires.  I do like your idea Moon of making a trade to get more right handed in the outfield or in the bullpen.  I wouldn't object to any of those names being dealt--maybe it's time to clear out a few guys IF WE ARE PRETTY SURE they aren't going to rise above where they are.  Looks like that's already happening with some we've traded.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I am keeping my fingers crossed that we get some kind of a young starter from the Cubs.  I can't believe that whole thing is taking so long unless there is some serious negotiating in process.  It would seem the Commissioner would have stepped in by now if nothing was happening.  I wonder if the Chicago papers are saying anything about this?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Well, we have so many guys out of options and only so many ML slots for them, so it makes sense to trade 2 or 3 for 1 better guy.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Trade to Atl:
    Iggy ($2.1M) Atl appreciates great fielding SSs.
    Albers ($1.1M)
    Middlebrooks (Pre-arb) Chipper's last season before 2013 club option.
    Lars Anderson (Pre-arb) Blocked & we have Youk,Papi, Lava, & Salty.
    Doubront (Pre-arb) Out of options.

    to Bos:
    Jair Jurrjens (2nd or 3 arbs) Made $3.25M in 2011.
    Eric O'Flaherty (2nd of 3 arbs) Made $895K in 2011.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Curious factoid:  O'Flaherty has had 8 save opportunities in his career, and has failed to record a single save.  (He also had a higher WHIP than ERA last season.  How often do you see that?)

    If you then cut ties with Miller, you save more money.  You will need to because Jurrjens and O'Flaherty are due for raises that would amount to an additional 4 or 5 million, or thereabouts, by my guesstimate.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    How about Salty, Iggy, Albers and Doubront (maybe Wilson, too) for Niese and Byrdak and/or Herrera?

    What I like about Niese is that he is another lefty for the rotation, and he is about the same age as Miller, making Miller completely superfluous.  Then the Sox could safely cut ties with Miller and save his million plus.  All told, the Sox would cut over 5 million in salary and take on 2 (or 3) guys who all made less than a million last season.  And the sox get another decent lefty or two for their pen that way as well.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think we have to look at these types of deals if we want to get quality pitching without raising salary payroll.

    Look at what a few "low cost" free agent pitchers have gotten so far:

    Bedard    $4.5x 1 year
    Capuano $5M x 2
    B. Chen   $4.5M x 2
    Garcia      $4M x 1
    Harang    $6M x 2
    Marquis   $3M x 1
    Talbot      $.3M x 1
    Wada       $4M x 2
    Wang       $4M x 1
    Willis        $1M x 1

    Free agent starters still out there:

    Wei-Yin Chen
    B. Colon
    A. Cook
    K. Davies
    D. Davis
    Z. Duke
    J. Francis
    Gallarraga
    Garland
    R. Harden
    Hensley
    L. Hernandez
    Iwakuma
    E. Jackson (type B)
    Kazmir
    Kuroda (type B)
    R. Lopez
    Maholm
    Millwood
    Mitre
    Ohlendorf
    Oswalt (type A)
    Penny
    Pineiro
    J-J Reyes
    Saunders
    Vazquez
    Wakefield
    C. Young

    How many of these guys can be signed and keep us under the tax limit?
    Answer: not many.



     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I think we have to look at these types of deals if we want to get quality pitching without raising salary payroll. Look at what a few "low cost" free agent pitchers have gotten so far: Bedard    $4.5x 1 year Capuano $5M x 2 B. Chen   $4.5M x 2 Garcia      $4M x 1 Harang    $6M x 2 Marquis   $3M x 1 Talbot      $.3M x 1 Wada       $4M x 2 Wang       $4M x 1 Willis        $1M x 1 Free agent starters still out there: Wei-Yin Chen B. Colon A. Cook K. Davies D. Davis Z. Duke J. Francis Gallarraga Garland R. Harden Hensley L. Hernandez Iwakuma E. Jackson (type B) Kazmir Kuroda (type B) R. Lopez Maholm Millwood Mitre Ohlendorf Oswalt (type A) Penny Pineiro J-J Reyes Saunders Vazquez Wakefield C. Young How many of these guys can be signed and keep us under the tax limit? Answer: not many.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Not many is right!  I see about three:  Wakefield, Kazmir and Millwood.  And Millwood has about as much chance pitching for the Sox as I do (I am a knuckle ball specialist, since I cannot throw hard without much pain at my age). Even Wei-Yi Chen is expected to get around 4-5 million a year!
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    That has been my point all along when I said Wake might still be one of our best low cost options available. Some silly clown said we could get a number of guys for about $1M, so far the ones that have signed have gone for $4M or more per year.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Willis went for around 1 million and I would want to see him in a Sox uni far less than I would want to see Wakefield back in one.  But you and I have been standing alone on this for awhile now.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Willis went for around 1 million and I would want to see him in a Sox uni far less than I would want to see Wakefield back in one.  But you and I have been standing alone on this for awhile now.
    Posted by parhunter1[/QUOTE]


    It's hard to know how much money we will have to spend (if any) after all the arb guys are signed, but there's a chance we may only have enough for one or two guys like Wake.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I think we may be looking at Bard and Aceves as starters. Doubront as depth. We need more of course and I have very little confidence in Bard and Aceves but it is slim pickings out there. We let too many options go earlier this winter. We might have to trade for pitching at this point and it's not going to come cheap. It might even come down to Wake. I love the guy but I'd pay money to watch someone else pitch! 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    There are certainly better pitchers than Wake still "out there", but I'm not sure how much we have to spend.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I


    H A P P Y 

    N E

    Y E A R
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I think we may be looking at Bard and Aceves as starters. Doubront as depth. We need more of course and I have very little confidence in Bard and Aceves but it is slim pickings out there. We let too many options go earlier this winter. We might have to trade for pitching at this point and it's not going to come cheap. It might even come down to Wake. I love the guy but I'd pay money to watch someone else pitch! 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    So, as of now, our 6-7-8-9 starters look to be...
    Doubront
    Miller
    Wilson 
    Tazawa (from relief)

    And people complained about... 
    Bedard
    Wake
    Miller
    Weiland


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheExaminer. Show TheExaminer's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Need one more SP, and we can have a decent chance.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I agree, but I'd like a 2nd pitcher (6th starter-type) to add depth.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxPatsCelts1988. Show SoxPatsCelts1988's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I agree, but I'd like a 2nd pitcher (6th starter-type) to add depth.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I'd still prefer a solid #5 option.

    Livan Hernandez?

    Maybe go the low-risk high reward route with Harden or Webb?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    We might be able to get 2 of those 3 guys and stay under the limit.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxFanInIL. Show SoxFanInIL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]I think we may be looking at Bard and Aceves as starters. Doubront as depth. We need more of course and I have very little confidence in Bard and Aceves but it is slim pickings out there. We let too many options go earlier this winter. We might have to trade for pitching at this point and it's not going to come cheap. It might even come down to Wake. I love the guy but I'd pay money to watch someone else pitch! 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    The reason I cant see this is that converting both Bard AND Aceves to SP assures the team of having barely 150 IP guys at #4 and #5.  Im not sure Dice 's addition later on will counteract that.  Not to mention Buch's low chance of pitching 200 innings, and Beckett's inevitable injury.

    I see either/or Bard/Aceves, with the signing of a guy who could throw 175 innings for the back of the rotation like a Saunders. Anyone but Wake. They do need a #6 guy for depth, too.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from SoxFanInIL. Show SoxFanInIL's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Trade to Atl: Iggy ($2.1M) Atl appreciates great fielding SSs. Albers ($1.1M) Middlebrooks (Pre-arb) Chipper's last season before 2013 club option. Lars Anderson (Pre-arb) Blocked & we have Youk,Papi, Lava, & Salty. Doubront (Pre-arb) Out of options. to Bos: Jair Jurrjens (2nd or 3 arbs) Made $3.25M in 2011. Eric O'Flaherty (2nd of 3 arbs) Made $895K in 2011.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    Jerrjensssssss ... mmmmmmm [/Homer Simpson voice/]
     

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