A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Big Papi is a luxury, not a need. Salty is at best a question mark to succeed this year. Scutaro is pretty due to have a lesser season offensively, which then dwarfs his eroding defensive skills. CC will likely not start the season and may not ever be the same player he was in Tampa. Hard for Ellsbury to match last year's production. Youkilis is a bigger question mark at 3b due to his ability to breakdown during the past few seasons with nagging injuries. If a guy ever needed the DH position to help him throughout a year, it would be Youkilis getting 40 games there, and AGON maybe 10 there, and Salty maybe 15 there, and Lavarnway 70 games there, and you get my point. You can rotate guys to DH and therefore rest them, something you can't do with Ortiz clogging the full-time DH spot. Who's in RF? Who's in LF? Who's backing up Scutaro? Can't wait for the 176 Shoppach to unseat the poor fielding Salty as regular catcher....ugh

    Finally, you have Lester back as a quality starter, and you have an injured Clay, whose back could give out permanently and the fact he has back issues at his young age is a bad sign. And you have Beckett and the fan-back lash and his own ego possibly causing potential problems with Bobby V. Then you have a question mark in Bard as a starter (not as a reliever), and Aceves as a starter (leave him as best middle man out there), and then you have the clown car of rehab projects coming to ST. In relief, you have an up-and-comer closer who may or may not completely replace the overall effectiveness of a Papelbon. And you have some set up guys, but no true lefty shutdown guy...again.

    There's my realistic look at 2012--It's up to Pedroia, AGON, Ellsbury, Lester, Bailey, Beckett to lead the team. No way this is a playoff team, even though last year's team missed by a single game. So maybe it is a playoff team if everyone else is not improving. Or maybe it's an 83-79 waiting to happen.

    Danny, I feel your pain, and nothing you wrote here isn't true or a genuine concern, but one could also portray a lot of the points you made and others in a positive light.

    Big Papi is a luxury, not a need. 

    Papi could repeat his 2011 numbers but with a few more timely hits.

    Salty is at best a question mark to succeed this year. 

    He's less of a question mark than spring 2011 and Shoppach should be better defensively in some ways than VTek.

    Scutaro is pretty due to have a lesser season offensively, which then dwarfs his eroding defensive skills. 

    Maybe it will force Ben/Bobby's hand to play the better SS anyway: Iggy.

    CC will likely not start the season and may not ever be the same player he was in Tampa.

    If he can just give us a .775 OPS for a couple years, it will be way better than 2011...the year we missed the playoffs by 1 game.

    Hard for Ellsbury to match last year's production. 

    Agreed, but he could do even better.

    Youkilis is a bigger question mark at 3b due to his ability to breakdown during the past few seasons with nagging injuries. 

    But, there is a chance he stays healthier than 2011 and bounces back. (We also have Punto & Aviles to back him up and maybe even Scutaro.)

    If a guy ever needed the DH position to help him throughout a year, it would be Youkilis getting 40 games there, and AGON maybe 10 there, and Salty maybe 15 there, and Lavarnway 70 games there, and you get my point. You can rotate guys to DH and therefore rest them, something you can't do with Ortiz clogging the full-time DH spot. 

    I agree.

    Who's in RF? 

    Who was in Rf last year?
    Drew  (270 PAs) .638
    Redd  (192)  .676
    DMac   (86)  .801
    Cam    (84)  .542

    Hard to imagine 2012's combination being any worse tahn .652
    (.233  14  58  OBP .299/Slg .353)

    Who's in LF? 

    Isn't anyone going to do better than this?
    .258  16  75  (.304/.419/.723)
    Not to mention the fielding of 2011.

    Who's backing up Scutaro? 

    The back-ups combined are better than Lowrie, and in my opinion, better than Scutaro.

    Can't wait for the 176 Shoppach to unseat the poor fielding Salty as regular catcher....ugh

    We can still hope for Lava.

    Finally, you have Lester back as a quality starter, and you have an injured Clay, whose back could give out permanently and the fact he has back issues at his young age is a bad sign.

    But, Buch could also give us 30 starts and 190+ IP.

    And you have Beckett and the fan-back lash and his own ego possibly causing potential problems with Bobby V. 

    I look forward to Josh's 2012 season.

    Then you have a question mark in Bard as a starter (not as a reliever)

    Maybe not.

    ... and Aceves as a starter (leave him as best middle man out there)

    Probably not.

    ...and then you have the clown car of rehab projects coming to ST. 

    Most will not be on the 25man come opening day.

    In relief, you have an up-and-comer closer who may or may not completely replace the overall effectiveness of a Papelbon. And you have some set up guys, but no true lefty shutdown guy...again.

    We didn't last year either and had one of the best pens in MLB against RHBs and LHBs.

    There's my realistic look at 2012--It's up to Pedroia, AGON, Ellsbury, Lester, Bailey, Beckett to lead the team. No way this is a playoff team, even though last year's team missed by a single game. So maybe it is a playoff team if everyone else is not improving. Or maybe it's an 83-79 waiting to happen.

    How hard is it to replace the 2011 seasons of
    Lackey
    Wake
    Miller
    Weiland
    Wheeler
    Jenks

    These are things I think are entirely possible:

    1) AGon is fully over his injury and hits 45 HRs with 140+ RBIs.
    2) Bailey and Melancon pitch over 110 innings to replace Paps/Wheeler's 114 IP pretty well.
    3) Games started: Bard, Aceves, and Doubront replace Lackey (28), Wake (23), Miller (12), Bedard (8), Weiland (5). I can't see a decline here, even if Bard and Aceves go back to the pen and we end up with Doubie, Silva, Cook, and whoever else.
    4) Buch and Dice-K go from 21 GS'd to 35-45 to make up some of the above GS'd.
    5) Salty turns the same age VTek was when he made the big step to stardom.
    6) Pedey has a year like 2011 without the slow start.
    7) Youk stays healthy and has an OPS near .900.
    8) Lava gives us 430 PAs instead of 43.
    9) Bobby V makes a difference.
    10) Our new 3B coach saves us 3 games. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    im not expecting a lot, especially after the yanks bolstered their pitching w/thos two workhorses...but, you never know.....Im hoping we pick up Oswalt, if just for entertainments sake...

    but if i had to predict a record....high 80s again for wins....all of our AL rivals look stronger to me...us, not so much so because of our shaky pitching situation....

    pray Bard is a stud starter, and Clay comes back strong....lester is the most dependable, and beckett might come into camp motivated and conditioned.....
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Geo,

    You know Beckett has been hearing about all that is being said and written about him. 2012 will be a test that may show his true colors. I think we may see a lot of Beckett bashers going silent (or people like me admitting I was wrong).

    No way does our staff compare to the Rays or Yanks as of right now, but if these 7 guys stay healthy, our staff should be better than most MLB teams:
    Beckett (200+ IP) , Lester (~200) , Buchholtz (180+), Bard (~120), Aceves (~120), Bailey (~60), and Melancon (~80).

    To piggyback on the 7, if they all stay healthy and eat a lot of innings, it's not unrealistic to think that 2-4 of these guys rise to the occasion and have a decent or better 2012 season:
    Morales, Doubront, Tazawa, Albers, Atchison, Bowden, Miller, Silva, Cook, Dice-K, Jenks, Padilla, R. Hill, Alex Wilson, Haeger, Carlson, Duckworth, Tony Pena or someone else. Yeah, this list looks scary, but asking for just 2-4 out of 18+ is not terrible odds.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I know it is discouraging with Crawford but now we find out he was affected most of the year by an injury he tried to play through. It makes a lot more sense now doesn't it. The guy is to be admired. He never mentioned it once to the press and yet again, the medical staff appear to have made a poor decision. One that again leaned toward not taking care of the player.

    We are all leary of wrist injuries but even though some players never come back the same we also have had many who did come back well. If I remember correctly Ortiz and Reddick, Lowrie and others have done so recently. Hopefully they don't rush Crawford back too soon. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    well said, moon. It is a glass half-empty v. glass half-full analysis. I like them both because, like you said, the Sox have some areas where they may greatly improve, others where they will clearly show a weakness. I think the big thing though is that how does the team respond to Bobby V as manager. Will he be able to right the ship so to speak that Francona lost control of, or was it that Italian Cruise ship captain. 


    n Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    Big Papi is a luxury, not a need. Salty is at best a question mark to succeed this year. Scutaro is pretty due to have a lesser season offensively, which then dwarfs his eroding defensive skills. CC will likely not start the season and may not ever be the same player he was in Tampa. Hard for Ellsbury to match last year's production. Youkilis is a bigger question mark at 3b due to his ability to breakdown during the past few seasons with nagging injuries. If a guy ever needed the DH position to help him throughout a year, it would be Youkilis getting 40 games there, and AGON maybe 10 there, and Salty maybe 15 there, and Lavarnway 70 games there, and you get my point. You can rotate guys to DH and therefore rest them, something you can't do with Ortiz clogging the full-time DH spot. Who's in RF? Who's in LF? Who's backing up Scutaro? Can't wait for the 176 Shoppach to unseat the poor fielding Salty as regular catcher....ugh Finally, you have Lester back as a quality starter, and you have an injured Clay, whose back could give out permanently and the fact he has back issues at his young age is a bad sign. And you have Beckett and the fan-back lash and his own ego possibly causing potential problems with Bobby V. Then you have a question mark in Bard as a starter (not as a reliever), and Aceves as a starter (leave him as best middle man out there), and then you have the clown car of rehab projects coming to ST. In relief, you have an up-and-comer closer who may or may not completely replace the overall effectiveness of a Papelbon. And you have some set up guys, but no true lefty shutdown guy...again. There's my realistic look at 2012--It's up to Pedroia, AGON, Ellsbury, Lester, Bailey, Beckett to lead the team. No way this is a playoff team, even though last year's team missed by a single game. So maybe it is a playoff team if everyone else is not improving. Or maybe it's an 83-79 waiting to happen. Danny, I feel your pain, and nothing you wrote here isn't true or a genuine concern, but one could also portray a lot of the points you made and others in a positive light. Big Papi is a luxury, not a need.  Papi could repeat his 2011 numbers but with a few more timely hits. Salty is at best a question mark to succeed this year.  He's less of a question mark than spring 2011 and Shoppach should be better defensively in some ways than VTek. Scutaro is pretty due to have a lesser season offensively, which then dwarfs his eroding defensive skills.  Maybe it will force Ben/Bobby's hand to play the better SS anyway: Iggy. CC will likely not start the season and may not ever be the same player he was in Tampa. If he can just give us a .775 OPS for a couple years, it will be way better than 2011...the year we missed the playoffs by 1 game. Hard for Ellsbury to match last year's production.  Agreed, but he could do even better. Youkilis is a bigger question mark at 3b due to his ability to breakdown during the past few seasons with nagging injuries.  But, there is a chance he stays healthier than 2011 and bounces back. (We also have Punto & Aviles to back him up and maybe even Scutaro.) If a guy ever needed the DH position to help him throughout a year, it would be Youkilis getting 40 games there, and AGON maybe 10 there, and Salty maybe 15 there, and Lavarnway 70 games there, and you get my point. You can rotate guys to DH and therefore rest them, something you can't do with Ortiz clogging the full-time DH spot.  I agree. Who's in RF?  Who was in Rf last year? Drew  (270 PAs) .638 Redd  (192)  .676 DMac   (86)  .801 Cam    (84)  .542 Hard to imagine 2012's combination being any worse tahn .652 (.233  14  58  OBP .299/Slg .353) Who's in LF?  Isn't anyone going to do better than this? .258  16  75  (.304/.419/.723) Not to mention the fielding of 2011. Who's backing up Scutaro?  The back-ups combined are better than Lowrie, and in my opinion, better than Scutaro. Can't wait for the 176 Shoppach to unseat the poor fielding Salty as regular catcher....ugh We can still hope for Lava. Finally, you have Lester back as a quality starter, and you have an injured Clay, whose back could give out permanently and the fact he has back issues at his young age is a bad sign. But, Buch could also give us 30 starts and 190+ IP. And you have Beckett and the fan-back lash and his own ego possibly causing potential problems with Bobby V.  I look forward to Josh's 2012 season. Then you have a question mark in Bard as a starter (not as a reliever) Maybe not. ... and Aceves as a starter (leave him as best middle man out there) Probably not. ...and then you have the clown car of rehab projects coming to ST.  Most will not be on the 25man come opening day. In relief, you have an up-and-comer closer who may or may not completely replace the overall effectiveness of a Papelbon. And you have some set up guys, but no true lefty shutdown guy...again. We didn't last year either and had one of the best pens in MLB against RHBs and LHBs. There's my realistic look at 2012--It's up to Pedroia, AGON, Ellsbury, Lester, Bailey, Beckett to lead the team. No way this is a playoff team, even though last year's team missed by a single game. So maybe it is a playoff team if everyone else is not improving. Or maybe it's an 83-79 waiting to happen. How hard is it to replace the 2011 seasons of Lackey Wake Miller Weiland Wheeler Jenks These are things I think are entirely possible: 1) AGon is fully over his injury and hits 45 HRs with 140+ RBIs. 2) Bailey and Melancon pitch over 110 innings to replace Paps/Wheeler's 114 IP pretty well. 3) Games started: Bard, Aceves, and Doubront replace Lackey (28), Wake (23), Miller (12), Bedard (8), Weiland (5). I can't see a decline here, even if Bard and Aceves go back to the pen and we end up with Doubie, Silva, Cook, and whoever else. 4) Buch and Dice-K go from 21 GS'd to 35-45 to make up some of the above GS'd. 5) Salty turns the same age VTek was when he made the big step to stardom. 6) Pedey has a year like 2011 without the slow start. 7) Youk stays healthy and has an OPS near .900. 8) Lava gives us 430 PAs instead of 43. 9) Bobby V makes a difference. 10) Our new 3B coach saves us 3 games. 
    Posted by moonslav59

     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    well said, moon. It is a glass half-empty v. glass half-full analysis. I like them both because, like you said, the Sox have some areas where they may greatly improve, others where they will clearly show a weakness. I think the big thing though is that how does the team respond to Bobby V as manager. Will he be able to right the ship so to speak that Francona lost control of, or was it that Italian Cruise ship captain.  n Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I :
    Posted by dannycater

    I agree and think Bobby V might have a great initial impact on this team.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from law2009a. Show law2009a's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    m
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]There's doom, then there's gloom, and then there's Boom! Lighten up buddy! A few teams have improved themselves, no doubt, but mostly from simply throwing money around. Cherington is working within limitations to be sure, but he has improved the club without spending a lot nor without giving up key pieces to our future. And if you think Lowrie or Reddick were keys to our future you are seriously over-valuing them. Last year's collapse notwithstanding, the Sox entered this offseason already ahead of most teams in terms of talent. Texas appears to me to be the best of the bunch with two straight WS appearances and an improved team, but the Yankees are a year older and Tampa still is in search of consistent offense. We'll be right in the thick of things when the dust settles, I'm sure.
    Posted by jidgef[/QUOTE]

    The Red Sox have lost Papelbon, but essentially its the same team we asll got excited about 1 year ago.  Tampa is pretty muich the same team, too.  They added Luke Scott to a team that needed someone else to fall apart so they could  get into the post-season....
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Big Papi is a luxury, not a need. Salty is at best a question mark to succeed this year. Scutaro is pretty due to have a lesser season offensively, which then dwarfs his eroding defensive skills. CC will likely not start the season and may not ever be the same player he was in Tampa. Hard for Ellsbury to match last year's production. Youkilis is a bigger question mark at 3b due to his ability to breakdown during the past few seasons with nagging injuries. If a guy ever needed the DH position to help him throughout a year, it would be Youkilis getting 40 games there, and AGON maybe 10 there, and Salty maybe 15 there, and Lavarnway 70 games there, and you get my point. You can rotate guys to DH and therefore rest them, something you can't do with Ortiz clogging the full-time DH spot. Who's in RF? Who's in LF? Who's backing up Scutaro? Can't wait for the 176 Shoppach to unseat the poor fielding Salty as regular catcher....ugh Finally, you have Lester back as a quality starter, and you have an injured Clay, whose back could give out permanently and the fact he has back issues at his young age is a bad sign. And you have Beckett and the fan-back lash and his own ego possibly causing potential problems with Bobby V. Then you have a question mark in Bard as a starter (not as a reliever), and Aceves as a starter (leave him as best middle man out there), and then you have the clown car of rehab projects coming to ST. In relief, you have an up-and-comer closer who may or may not completely replace the overall effectiveness of a Papelbon. And you have some set up guys, but no true lefty shutdown guy...again. There's my realistic look at 2012--It's up to Pedroia, AGON, Ellsbury, Lester, Bailey, Beckett to lead the team. No way this is a playoff team, even though last year's team missed by a single game. So maybe it is a playoff team if everyone else is not improving. Or maybe it's an 83-79 waiting to happen.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]

    I was disappointed they offered arbitration to Ortiz.  His acceptance was a guarantee given that no one was going to top that one year salary, and no one was going to give him as many as 2 years with the possibility of expanded interleague play looming.  I also agree Youkilis should DH.  He simply cannot play 3B every day anymore. 

    The solution is obvious: trade (do all my solutions involve trading someone?) Ortiz to the Rangers for Michael Young.

    The Rangers are extremely right-handed with only Hamilton and Moreland (who is injured) from the left side.  They are reportedly in on Fielder, but that probably ended with the Darvish signing.  Young is limited to DH/super sub duties.  While he is not much defensively at 3B, he certainly can play every day.  He also could be the 2-spot hitter the Sox need Crawford to be.

    Money is roughly equal, and pending Ortiz hearing could be very equal.  Young is one year older and signed for one year longer.  I hate his contract, especially for his age, but at least the player going out would be in a similar spot.

    Both players have 10/5 rights and could nix any potential deal.  Young probably would not, given that he has asked out of Texas before for reasons related to playing time.  Would Ortiz be an obstacle?

     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]We're not going anywhere next year. I say screw it and start Lavarnway and Iggy.  What more is there to lose?
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]

    That's what we all said about the Cardinals last March when it was announced Wainwright was going to miss the season wth TJ surgery...
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Jasko, the RS consistently bring their young players along slowly with so many vets in the line up, work them in gradually to have some success, then pull them back out or send them down when the vet gets healthy or whatever.  Actually I see the sense in this.  But other teams don't have that luxury and with much smaller budgets, they start lots of young guys and every year lots of those teams have one or two guys who pop out of nowhere to assert themselves and catch your eye.

    It seems now with CC's salary pushing us to the edge--along with some others--we are going to have to give more rein to these younger players.  I like Scut, but he's a very average defensive player who may have some trade value.  Why not go with the young guy, shore up our left side defense, save some money or trade for more pitching.  Same with Lava.  He looked okay to me at the end of last year. 

    I don't think this scenario is going to happen.  I think the RS are into the slow and steady approach but with the salaries we have on the books, bringing along younger players more quickly could be more imperative.  I also think Bi-Valve might be more adept at working with young players.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The solution is obvious: trade (do all my solutions involve trading someone?) Ortiz to the Rangers for Michael Young.

    Interesting scenario, notin. If Papi squaks, tell him he will be platooning with Lava this year, then let him decide
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

     Tampa is pretty muich the same team, too.  They added Luke Scott to a team that needed someone else to fall apart so they could  get into the post-season....

    I get your point, notin, but you may be oversimplifying TB's 2012 outlook.

    1) Almost all their starting pitchers are at ages where they should be improving.
    2) Jennings and Moore should play way more than 2011.
    3) Longoria and Joyce are poised for better years.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]The solution is obvious: trade (do all my solutions involve trading someone?) Ortiz to the Rangers for Michael Young. Interesting scenario, notin. If Papi squaks, tell him he will be platooning with Lava this year, then let him decide
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    I'm a fan of Young, he reminds me of Molitor late in his career. A guy who is a sure thing to produce offensively regardless of defense. It's an interesting scenario. I'd do it.  Let me be clear about Big Papi because I am also understanding of his now long tenure as a Sox. He's a great Sox, he's been a big hitter and pretty consistent in terms of production. He's probably the best DH ever or pretty close. And now here's the problem. The Sox play NL games, so you lose him there. The Sox feel compelled to bat him v. lefties who often dominate him, especially late in games. Then you have guys like Youkilis, like Lavarnway, and the Sox in need of a RH bat for that DH spot against lefty starters and both of those guys taking that DH spot for different reasons. Then you have the whole idea of resting by using the DH--something Francona could not apply because Ortiz had the spot full-time. So you'd see the mandatory rests of good hitters who otherwise would be in the lineup if not for Papi. Would you lose the production that Ortiz provides? Probably, but it opens up possibilities for not pressing a slumping hitter in that spot because you are compelled to by contract (a la Crawford in LF). I never thought the DH spot in those terms, but watching how the Sox suffer in NL games in recent years because Ortiz simply gets eliminated from the lineup. It's like the team loses right away. If the team adjusted to the rotating DH idea, the team wouldn't miss a beat by the time they played NL road games. Since the Sox are in new frontier mode, it's time to end ties with Ortiz. But I respect everything he did as a Sox. He's a helluva guy and a great hitter over the years. Of course, if Papi hits 35 homers, 110 RBI, then it would justify his re-up.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    I'll admit I was wrong about Papi vs LHPs going into last year, but I seriously doubt he repeats 2011's numbers vs lefties.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Danny, great evaluation of Papi to a T.  One thing I would add, he can really plug up the bases.  Last year a couple of times at the end of the season when we were desperate to get an extra run he not only didn't score but prevented others from scoring.  He has done his best not to be a liability there--but he still is.  Of course when he racks up the 30 HR's and 100 RBI's, it's hard to question those numbers.  I just think 14 mil is off by about 6 mil--is there any team out there right now who would pay him 8 mil a year?  Chicago WS?  It's better to get rid of an older player a year too early than a year too late--see Mike Lowell.  What happens now if the two sides can't agree on arb?

     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Another idea.  I think BV has a "National League" approach to situational baseball.  He won't coddle players.  Is Papi going to get disgruntled when he gets pulled?  I think there were times last year and the year before, previous to his getting it going, that we started to hear rumbling from him.  Just a thought.  If he starts out really slowly this year, it might get nasty early.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    It might get nasty if he loses the arb... day one.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    moon, I also think that was an anomaly, the better hitting last year he had v. lefties. His history is that lefty relievers own him and lefty starters either own him or get murdered by him. Seems like no in-between. I realize his numbers in comparison to the rest of the league, but as I said, it just seems like repeating the old Sox way. I wish I'm wrong on this, but I really can see him struggling this year as the full-time DH. It's almost like he's due to have an off-season due to age and slower bat speed, but Ortiz has tremendous bat speed and can drive an inside pitch off his hip like it was a ball over the middle of the plate. Ortiz is a question mark despite last year.

     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Critter, I agree on when is it the right time to let a great hitter go. As for money, Sox should feel like they have the leverage, not Big Papi. But with arbitration, it seems he's going to get more than I guess most people figured he was worth.
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    Little factoid about arbitration rules which may be pertinent this year:

    "The panel, without opinion, awards the player a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at one salary or the other. If the player is cut within 16 days before the season begins, he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay."

    In other words, If Ortiz is awarded the $16 mil he's asking for, the Redsox could cut him as his contract is not guaranteed. The cost would be as per the above. That is highly unlikely but I think possible. And I for one would sincerely consider it. 
     
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    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Little factoid about arbitration rules which may be pertinent this year: " The panel, without opinion, awards the player a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at one salary or the other. If the player is cut within 16 days before the season begins, he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay." In other words, If Ortiz is awarded the $16 mil he's asking for, the Redsox could cut him as his contract is not guaranteed. The cost would be as per the above. That is highly unlikely but I think possible. And I for one would sincerely consider it. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]

    What an ugly ending that would be!

    Someone said a player could only be releases for "baseball reasons", but it's not clear what that means.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]Little factoid about arbitration rules which may be pertinent this year: " The panel, without opinion, awards the player a one-year, non-guaranteed contract at one salary or the other. If the player is cut within 16 days before the season begins, he is entitled only to 30 days’ termination pay. If the player is cut during spring training but after the 16th day before the season begins, he is entitled only to 45 days’ termination pay." In other words, If Ortiz is awarded the $16 mil he's asking for, the Redsox could cut him as his contract is not guaranteed. The cost would be as per the above. That is highly unlikely but I think possible. And I for one would sincerely consider it. 
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]
    Jason Varitek turned down a Red Sox offer of arbitration following the 2008, reportedly in part because the arbitration process would result in a non-guaranteed contract.

    I believe boom's statement of the rules is correct, but it hardly seems fair. If the team can opt out before the end of Spring Training, shouldn't the player have the same option?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    The players agreed to the rules.

    I have to think if Papi wins the $16M figure, there has to be some discussion about saying "good bye". He'd put us over the limit or force a trade to get us under.

    The plus of helping Youk stay healthy could tip the balance.

    A strong spring by Lavarnway as well.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I

    In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic look at 2012: Part I : Jason Varitek turned down a Red Sox offer of arbitration following the 2008, reportedly in part because the arbitration process would result in a non-guaranteed contract. I believe boom's statement of the rules is correct, but it hardly seems fair. If the team can opt out before the end of Spring Training, shouldn't the player have the same option?
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    The player does have the same option. He could say "I'm retiring effective June 1st."

    I'm not saying this option is likely at all but I'm not convinced it isn't fair. The rules are the rules and both the team and the player chose to participate in this option. ( Edit ).

    Hypothetically, what if the first blood test of spring training shows something of risk with a given player ( not necessarily Ortiz ). Maybe passes but is borderline. What would you do then? If it were borderline then, indications are that a player would not be able to maintain whatever was making it borderline in the first place and he would potentially degrade in performance over the course of the season.

    Maybe the sox want Ortiz to come back because he is such a fan favorite and he put up good numbers last year. This is clearly the most plausible scenario but what were they thinking when they put themselves in this starting pitching situation? Is a Scutaro trade something they were considering? Something like that to be able to afford another starter? 

    For less than a $2 mil loss, they could choose to release him and have $14 mil to spend potentially. That $14 mil could land 2 decent starters potentially and Lavarnway could slot as the main DH. If I were Ortiz I would strongly consider signing a regular contract if it's available.
     

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