A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm surprised there is not yet a bandwagon for Aviles as a trade candidate.  An average to above average defender with a good bat has value and if you think Iggy is ready for the big time it makes Aviles expendable.  

    For the record, I don't want this trade (at least not yet) because I think Aviles has tremendous current value and he should be our 2013 insurance policy on Will and/or Iggy not working out as planned.  I am just surprised the idea hasn't gone viral on BDC yet.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Considering the premium on power hitting 3B's in MLB historically I think trading Middlebrooks is risky business. Just because the RS have other 3B prospects does not mean they will pan out.  I don't see Gonzalez as a very long term solution in RF (particularly for home games) either. Gonzo in the OF was in my opinion a short term, desperation move created by have so many OFers already on the DL. It is pretty clear IMO that they won't be picking up Youk's option for 2013. And I am sure the RS would like to see Youk increase his trade value before making a mid-year move. The current configuration is just kicking the can a further down road for the moment...
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]
    "Pan out" is your key phrase. The Sox are waiting to see if Middlebrooks will really pan out. He is showing great promise at the ML level. Why trade him when he's in that phase? Perhaps some of the other infield prospects are also showing great promise -- but in the minors. And we all know how that can go.
    Middlebrooks appears to have the qualities of a classic third baseman -- and in a home park that will do no harm to his chances for big power numbers.  If he pans out, he will probably be the Boston third baseman in 2013 and for many years after that. Maybe with Iggy to his left. Not bad.


     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I think a trade involving Middlebrooks is extremely unlikely and risky for any GM. As I mentioned earlier it probably would not happen but are we basically going to just dump Youk for next to nothing? It would be great to let Youk reestablish his value. Who knows, maybe he can do that and some team would love to have him for $13 mil on a one year deal.

    I've gotta agree though that it's not likely Youk is going to be able to pull that off either though. It's a quandry. And what about this year? We have to pay him anyway. We might as well get some value from him and the only way to do that is to pick up part of his salary and basically dump him or use him as originally projected as our 3rd baseman. And keep Middlebrook's from starting his 6 year clock this year or trade Middlebrooks.

    Ok Baltimore, if Dylan Bundy is available you can have Middlebrooks! You can see why this sort of deal just isn't going to happen. It is a very rare deal to arrange. Man, I hate not hearing the "Yooooouuuukkkk" refrain every time he gets up. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : "Pan out" is your key phrase. The Sox are waiting to see if Middlebrooks will really pan out. He is showing great promise at the ML level. Why trade him when he's in that phase? Perhaps some of the other infield prospects are also showing great promise -- but in the minors. And we all know how that can go. Middlebrooks appears to have the qualities of a classic third baseman -- and in a home park that will do no harm to his chances for big power numbers.  If he pans out, he will probably be the Boston third baseman in 2013 and for many years after that. Maybe with Iggy to his left. Not bad.
    Posted by expitch[/QUOTE]The pan out context was for the other highly regarded 3B prospects in the system behind Middlebroooks not Middlebrooks who clearly looks like he can play in MLB and it is a matter of where his ceiling will be.

    So basically we agree that the RS won't trade Middlebrooks and barring injury I full expect he will be the starting 3B in 2013. OTOH I am not sure that the RS are going to sell low on Youk just yet to make MLB PT for Middlebrooks just yet or play Gonzalez in RF to keep both in the line-up. At any rate, one of the happier problems the RS have.   
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, I agree that we might want to look at Agon as our LF at least for a while in Fenway. Imagine the lineup then if Youk, Middlebrooks and Gonzalez are all producing.

    But what about our best hitter.....Daniel Nava!

    JK but he has shown to be able to produce offensively so far and on a career basis he did put up unreal numbers in the minors. Is he a trade candidate or what when everyone comes back.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Top Sox OPS after 44 games: Nava 1.091 Ortiz   .966 Midd   .889 Shop  .888 Ross  .883 Avile  .871 Salty  .857 Pede  .810 Swee .784 AGon .739 Youk  .716 DMac .634 Ells    .569 Byrd  .477 Punto .460 If I had said that AGon, Youk, and Ells would be in the bottom 6 out of 15 Sox hitters after 44 games, who'd have believed it?
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    AGon's numbers are most surprising considering he hasn't had an injury.  FWIW, Aviles is actually at .771, not .871.  

    AGon, Ortiz and Pedroia have played every game this year.  Aviles has had one day off.  Surprisingly, Cody Ross is next on the list at 37 of 44 games played.  Given the injuries, I don't think BV will be handing out any off-days for a while unless there is a pressing need.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Guys, just for the record, I don't like Gonzo, Youk, or Middlebrooks being in the outfield for anything but a very occasional game.  Though considering the hitters in the lineup, it looks good, but the possibility for injury is just too great in my humble opinion.  You are asking guys to use muscles and perform in ways they are not accustomed.  Furthermore, Youk, Middlebrooks have had leg issues
    as recently as this year.  Nava for one has filled in nicely and Posey did fine in his first game.  Though these options were't on the horizon early, I think they are safer.

    When is the trading deadline?
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    111, interesting about the games played.  Maybe AGon and Pedey should get a day off though--even though they probably don't want it. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Nava for one has filled in nicely and Posey did fine in his first game.  Though these options were't on the horizon early, I think they are safer. When is the trading deadline?
    Posted by Critter23[/QUOTE]

    Crit - Sweet jesus!!! When did we get Buster Posey?  Trade Salty immediately!!! :)

    Yeah, Pedey and AGon will need to tied down to sit out a game, especially right now.  Personally, I think they should get a day off every 4-6 weeks whether they want it or not.  

    Anyone want to take a side on whether Nava or WMB will keep up their hot streak longer?  To date, Will was last above 1000 OPS after his 11th game and last above 900 after his 18th.  Nava is above 1000 after his 14th game.  Interesting game considering their vastly different profiles.  Welcome to the other side of the rabbit hole.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon,

    The only young player who was a one year wonder I can think of was Lou Clinton (played for the Sox in the early 60's) After bouncing back and forth between the minors and the Sox for a couple of years he put together a good season in 1962. Clinton hit just short of a 300 BA with power that year and joined Yaz and Malzone as one of the teams top hitters. He never came close to those numbers again and spent the rest of his short career (8 or so years) as a utility player.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Moon, The only young player who was a one year wonder I can think of was Lou Clinton (played for the Sox in the early 60's) After bouncing back and forth between the minors and the Sox for a couple of years he put together a good season in 1962. Clinton hit just short of a 300 BA with power that year and joined Yaz and Malzone as one of the teams top hitters. He never came close to those numbers again and spent the rest of his short career (8 or so years) as a utility player.
    Posted by Thomasmtom[/QUOTE]

    Good call Tmt

    How about Dave Stapleton?

    26yo  802 and then     747   703   661   568   590   325

    A bit before my time I saw on BBRef that Cecil Cooper was a Sox. I remember him as a Brewer only.  He wasn't a one hit wonder but he did put up an .899 at 25 yo and a .761 the next year and then was traded.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Stapleton sure did a slow fade. One really good season and downhill from there on.  I was unhappy when the Sox traded Cooper, he was one of my favorite players.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    But I wake up this morning just feeling that our starting needs a boost as you've been promoting Moon, but if we wait until the deadline, will that be too late? 

    I'm fine with making a deal now if it is a good one, but it is very rare at this time of year.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon,

    The only young player who was a one year wonder I can think of was Lou Clinton (played for the Sox in the early 60's) After bouncing back and forth between the minors and the Sox for a couple of years he put together a good season in 1962. Clinton hit just short of a 300 BA with power that year and joined Yaz and Malzone as one of the teams top hitters. He never came close to those numbers again and spent the rest of his short career (8 or so years) as a utility player.

    Well, Lind's career isn't over, but I thought you were asking for names of players that had a great season at a youngs age and then dropped off steeply the next year or two.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Sorry Moon,
    I should have directed my response to Tom-uk, who was asking for the name of Red Sox players who had a big year at a young age and then dropped off thereafter.   
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    No prob. I like conversations about this kind of thing.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I think Crit was talking about Posednik ( Posey ).

    Two other Redox guys who started strong and basically tanked were Eric Hinske and Jeremy Hermida.

    There have been many I'm sure.  
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 111SoxFan111. Show 111SoxFan111's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    :) <=== No one notices these any more. Got it, Pods not Posey.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Stapleton sure did a slow fade. One really good season and downhill from there on.  I was unhappy when the Sox traded Cooper, he was one of my favorite players.
    Posted by Thomasmtom[/QUOTE]

    I agree on Cooper.

    Add Ellis Burks to that list too, IMO.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Thomasmtom. Show Thomasmtom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : I agree on Cooper. Add Ellis Burks to that list too, IMO.
    Posted by summerof67[/QUOTE]

    Ellis gets my vote as well. I was working in Colorado Springs in the 90's and watched him play for the Rockies. The Fans in Denver thought the world of him.
    Good player and a good person.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Switching gears here, I like our chances in this next series, even with all of our injuries.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Guys, I have two questions to ask first.  (1) Can we win this year?  (2)  Do we have any glaring weaknesses other than starting pitching?

    If the answer to the first question is no, then I think we listen to Boom and make our trades with eyes to the future.  We can go for more talented prospects and not costly front line players.  If the answer is yes, then I think we have to go for a solid pitcher, 1 through 3.  Imo our biggest problem is consistentcy of our starters.

    Ex, you asked a lot of questions but I'm not sure I'm ready to wear the mantle of GM, but I will try to answer.  Right now we can see what Salty is, how far he's come, how well he's doing at the top level, how much potential he still has. He's blossoming.  What we can't see is what Moon suggests:  how consistent will he be?  What I think about Lava is he should be cerebral, he should be a better offensive player than Salty, and I think he will be just as good defensively as Salty at some point.  I like both, I really feel I would trade either depending on who the other team wanted, but Ex, I don't want to be wishy washy here, I think you want me to commit, so I'm trading Salty if I have to chose.  His stock is high, he may cost a lot soon, and we have enough hefty contracts already.  I think he gets us more right now.

    Ok, I love Nava like I think a lot of us do.  I think he's one of the few "clutch" hitters we have right now.  I'd love to see him stay.  BUT he's hot too and let's be realistic, what's going to happen when Ells and CC come back?  I would love to trade CC, but with his money, that's going to be tough.  If one of our strengths in the minors is OF's, then this is our chance to turn someone from a Montana farm team (or some equivalent) into a bigger resource.

    So yes, right now IF we think we can win this year, I want to turn Softy or Lava, Nava, Youk, and any of the relievers Moon has mentioned into a solid starter.  I would exchange Middlebrooks for Youk only if we think we can get a #1.  I wouldn't trade Middlebrooks if we don't think we can win this year.  Sorry Boom, I just don't see Shop getting us much.

    Just a couple of more comments.  Sometimes it seems like Theo gets a lot of flack, and we know he mades some mistakes.  I've always felt CC wasn't Theo's choice, but who knows.  Anyway, to okay guys like Nava and Softy, he doesn't get appreciated enough in my book.
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]I2011: Barnes & Owens (VMart) Swihart & Bradley (Beltre)
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    As a sidenote, it was a crime that the Seattle Mariners got only one compensatory draft pick for losing Beltre to free agency one year before the Red Sox got two compensatory draft picks for losing Beltre to free agency. Beltre failed to gain Type A free agent status in Seattle largely because Safeco Field suppressed his hitting statistics.

    On a positive note, the Mariners did well with their one compensatory draft pick (in the sandwich round at No. 43): Taijuan Walker, the now 19-year-old righthander who entered this season as Baseball America's 20th-ranked prospect.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Guys, I have two questions to ask first.  

    (1) Can we win this year? 
    Yes, but as our roster is right now, even if healthy, we will not be favorites or even runner ups. I'm not sure we should push hard to get a 2 month rental. Any deal we make should be for beyond just this year.

    (2)  Do we have any glaring weaknesses other than starting pitching?
    We could use a solid power RH'd bat in the middle of our line up, but getting Ells back leading off and maybe Middlebrooks staying strong (or Youk returning to form) can solve that issue from within.

    If the answer to the first question is no, then I think we listen to Boom and make our trades with eyes to the future.  We can go for more talented prospects and not costly front line players.  If the answer is yes, then I think we have to go for a solid pitcher, 1 through 3.  Imo our biggest problem is consistentcy of our starters.

    I mentioned earlier this year (and then a Globe writer stole my idea) that we could be sellers and buyers at the same time this summer.

    I do not think it would hurt our 2012 chances too much by "selling off" our players that will or can be FAs next year: Youk, Dice-K, Ross, Cook, Padilla, Shoppach, Podsednik and Jenks. ("Selling off" Papi would greatly effect our odds of winning this year.) We could get some decent prospects for some of these guys and still be left with this 25 man roster:

    C: Salty/Lava
    1B: AGon
    2B: Pedey
    3B: Middlebrooks
    SS: Aviles
    UT: Punto 
    LF: Crawford/Nava
    CF: Ellsbury
    RF: Sweeney/DMac, Kalish or Pods
    DH: Ortiz 

    SP: Beck, Lest, Buch, Doub, Bard
    RP: Bailey, Aceves, Morales, Albers, Atchison, Miller, Hill

    We could even "sell off" some players that may walk after 2013 or marginal players for some nice prospects and still have a good team on the field this year, such as: Ellsbury (Sweeney/Kalish in CF)  , Papi (Lava/Ross DH), DMac, Salty (Lava C), Punto (Iggy UT), or Sweeney (Ross/Nava/Kalish in RF).

    We could then us some of the prospects we get and some of our own, to trade for some very good players who are under team control for several years, thereby becomming "buyers" at the same time. We could be contenders this year still, but more importantly, we'd be better set up for 2013 and beyond.

    I am not saying I want to do this, but it is a viable plan.

    Ex, you asked a lot of questions but I'm not sure I'm ready to wear the mantle of GM, but I will try to answer.  Right now we can see what Salty is, how far he's come, how well he's doing at the top level, how much potential he still has. He's blossoming.  What we can't see is what Moon suggests:  how consistent will he be?  What I think about Lava is he should be cerebral, he should be a better offensive player than Salty, and I think he will be just as good defensively as Salty at some point.  I like both, I really feel I would trade either depending on who the other team wanted, but Ex, I don't want to be wishy washy here, I think you want me to commit, so I'm trading Salty if I have to chose.  His stock is high, he may cost a lot soon, and we have enough hefty contracts already.  I think he gets us more right now.

    I do think if we are going to truly get a top player via trade, hopefull a starting pitcher, Salty or Lava would likely have to be part of the deal, and as ex has pointed out, there may be issues coming up involving keeping both of them happy at the same time anyways. How well Swihart does to finish the year may make that decision easier for Ben.

    Ok, I love Nava like I think a lot of us do.  I think he's one of the few "clutch" hitters we have right now.  I'd love to see him stay.  BUT he's hot too and let's be realistic, what's going to happen when Ells and CC come back?  I would love to trade CC, but with his money, that's going to be tough.  If one of our strengths in the minors is OF's, then this is our chance to turn someone from a Montana farm team (or some equivalent) into a bigger resource.

    I'm not sure other GMs believe in Nava enough to give us much in return. Trading Ellsbury would net us the best return, and this OF left behind would not be so bad:
    LF: CC/DMac
    CF: Sweeney/Kalish/Pods
    RF: Nava/Ross
    with Bradley and Brentz coming on strong.
    Trading Ross might be what ends up happening.

    So yes, right now IF we think we can win this year, I want to turn Salty or Lava, Nava, Youk, and any of the relievers Moon has mentioned into a solid starter.  I would exchange Middlebrooks for Youk only if we think we can get a #1.  I wouldn't trade Middlebrooks if we don't think we can win this year.  Sorry Boom, I just don't see Shop getting us much.

    I can see this happening. If we do move Middlebrooks with the above guys to get a starter under team control for 2+ years, we still have Aviles, Punto, Cecchini, Bogaerts, and maybe Coyle to fill in over the next year and beyond at 3B. (Aviles could play 3B and Iggy at SS as well.)

    Just a couple of more comments.  Sometimes it seems like Theo gets a lot of flack, and we know he mades some mistakes.  I've always felt CC wasn't Theo's choice, but who knows.  Anyway, to okay guys like Nava and Softy (You mean Salty, right?) , he doesn't get appreciated enough in my book.

    People remember what you recently did more than long ago, especially on this board, where posters will turn on a hero after one bad week, game or even AB!
     
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    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : As a sidenote, it was a crime that the Seattle Mariners got only one compensatory draft pick for losing Beltre to free agency one year before the Red Sox got two compensatory draft picks for losing Beltre to free agency. Beltre failed to gain Type A free agent status in Seattle largely because Safeco Field suppressed his hitting statistics. On a positive note, the Mariners did well with their one compensatory draft pick (in the sandwich round at No. 43): Taijuan Walker, the now 19-year-old righthander who entered this season as Baseball America's 20th-ranked prospect.
    Posted by hill55[/QUOTE]

    I agree, but do not think Beltre's great season with Boston was all park related. He did have a 70 point higher OPS on the road in 2010. 

    (I realize many road games with Seatlle were in Oak & LAA-not hitters parks, but you get my point.)

     

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