Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II
posted at 6/10/2012 2:06 AM EDT
Guys, I have two questions to ask first.
(1) Can we win this year?
Yes, but as our roster is right now, even if healthy, we will not be favorites or even runner ups. I'm not sure we should push hard to get a 2 month rental. Any deal we make should be for beyond just this year.
(2) Do we have any glaring weaknesses other than starting pitching?
We could use a solid power RH'd bat in the middle of our line up, but getting Ells back leading off and maybe Middlebrooks staying strong (or Youk returning to form) can solve that issue from within.
If the answer to the first question is no, then I think we listen to Boom and make our trades with eyes to the future. We can go for more talented prospects and not costly front line players. If the answer is yes, then I think we have to go for a solid pitcher, 1 through 3. Imo our biggest problem is consistentcy of our starters.
I mentioned earlier this year (and then a Globe writer stole my idea) that we could be sellers and buyers at the same time this summer.
I do not think it would hurt our 2012 chances too much by "selling off" our players that will or can be FAs next year: Youk, Dice-K, Ross, Cook, Padilla, Shoppach, Podsednik and Jenks. ("Selling off" Papi would greatly effect our odds of winning this year.) We could get some decent prospects for some of these guys and still be left with this 25 man roster:
RF: Sweeney/DMac, Kalish or Pods
SP: Beck, Lest, Buch, Doub, Bard
RP: Bailey, Aceves, Morales, Albers, Atchison, Miller, Hill
We could even "sell off" some players that may walk after 2013 or marginal players for some nice prospects and still have a good team on the field this year, such as: Ellsbury (Sweeney/Kalish in CF) , Papi (Lava/Ross DH), DMac, Salty (Lava C), Punto (Iggy UT), or Sweeney (Ross/Nava/Kalish in RF).
We could then us some of the prospects we get and some of our own, to trade for some very good players who are under team control for several years, thereby becomming "buyers" at the same time. We could be contenders this year still, but more importantly, we'd be better set up for 2013 and beyond.
I am not saying I want to do this, but it is a viable plan.
Ex, you asked a lot of questions but I'm not sure I'm ready to wear the mantle of GM, but I will try to answer. Right now we can see what Salty is, how far he's come, how well he's doing at the top level, how much potential he still has. He's blossoming. What we can't see is what Moon suggests: how consistent will he be? What I think about Lava is he should be cerebral, he should be a better offensive player than Salty, and I think he will be just as good defensively as Salty at some point. I like both, I really feel I would trade either depending on who the other team wanted, but Ex, I don't want to be wishy washy here, I think you want me to commit, so I'm trading Salty if I have to chose. His stock is high, he may cost a lot soon, and we have enough hefty contracts already. I think he gets us more right now.
I do think if we are going to truly get a top player via trade, hopefull a starting pitcher, Salty or Lava would likely have to be part of the deal, and as ex has pointed out, there may be issues coming up involving keeping both of them happy at the same time anyways. How well Swihart does to finish the year may make that decision easier for Ben.
Ok, I love Nava like I think a lot of us do. I think he's one of the few "clutch" hitters we have right now. I'd love to see him stay. BUT he's hot too and let's be realistic, what's going to happen when Ells and CC come back? I would love to trade CC, but with his money, that's going to be tough. If one of our strengths in the minors is OF's, then this is our chance to turn someone from a Montana farm team (or some equivalent) into a bigger resource.
I'm not sure other GMs believe in Nava enough to give us much in return. Trading Ellsbury would net us the best return, and this OF left behind would not be so bad:
with Bradley and Brentz coming on strong.
Trading Ross might be what ends up happening.
So yes, right now IF we think we can win this year, I want to turn Salty or Lava, Nava, Youk, and any of the relievers Moon has mentioned into a solid starter. I would exchange Middlebrooks for Youk only if we think we can get a #1. I wouldn't trade Middlebrooks if we don't think we can win this year. Sorry Boom, I just don't see Shop getting us much.
I can see this happening. If we do move Middlebrooks with the above guys to get a starter under team control for 2+ years, we still have Aviles, Punto, Cecchini, Bogaerts, and maybe Coyle to fill in over the next year and beyond at 3B. (Aviles could play 3B and Iggy at SS as well.)
Just a couple of more comments. Sometimes it seems like Theo gets a lot of flack, and we know he mades some mistakes. I've always felt CC wasn't Theo's choice, but who knows. Anyway, to okay guys like Nava and Softy (You mean Salty, right?) , he doesn't get appreciated enough in my book.
People remember what you recently did more than long ago, especially on this board, where posters will turn on a hero after one bad week, game or even AB!