A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    well, then, 5, as usual the Sox will have banked money to keep the wrong guys or the guys who least produce, while the guys who actually do produce or do well in a Sox jersey are deemed "out of their price range." 

    Hardly anyone agreed with me when I claimed that the CC deal would cripple us for 7 years.

    Then when the Sox have money again after Ellsbury leaves, they undoubtedly will spend it all on one guy, a pitcher, and then we will all cringe when we learn the pitcher has arm trouble and is age 31.

    danny, I love Jacoby and want him here until he is 34-35 years old or so. However, he really is not a proven player worthy of $20M a year x 6 or 7 years at age 30 (winter of 2013-2014). As much as I disagreed with the CC signing, at least he had put up several years of decent numbers.

    I didn't think CC was worth anywhere near $20M/yr, but unfortunately that will set the bar for Ellsbury. If Jacoby comes back this year and hits like he did in 2011 for 1.5 more years, he will want and get $20M+ x 6 or 7. If we sign him for that, our budget will be severely restricted, unless we dump other high salary players. Yes, Papi should be gone by 2014, and that alone would pay for his raise, but I still am not sure we want about 1/4th of our salary budget spent on just our OF.

    I get your point, but I just am not sure the Sox will offer what others will, and I don't think Jacoby will take even an equal offer. These two reasons lead me to believe he should and will be traded.

     I'm going to take this time to say I'm sick and tired of the mantra that the Sox are always out of the bidding on their own players. It's pretty weak, and right now, pretty pathetic.

    Most of their "own players" were not worth what others signed them for, with the possible exception 1 or 2 guys. I had hoped we traded Youk and kept Beltre, but would that be any more loyal? (Youk was a longtimer-Beltre a 1 yr stud.)

    Damon had no place to play here, and would not have put up the numbers that Yankee stadium helped him achieve. His cost and length were both too much. Letting Pedro, Bay, and the trading of Nomar were all clearly the right choices. The VMart situation was debatable, but once we got AGon, it was really hard to keep VMart and Papi, since no way could VMart be a FT catcher for 2+ years, let alone 4.

    danny, do you see the possibility of us signing Jacoby for $140M/7 and then watch him never come close to 2011 nmbers again, of get hurt often? I'm not sure any FA at 30 years old or older is worth that kind of length.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    A few times tonight, Sox pitchers did get a second strike from a foul from a high and tight pitch. They ought to do more of it. But they give away the 1 and 2 pitch too often. That should be the killer pitch. Though Jiminez did not pitch well, he used the circle change effectively against lefties when he was ahead in the count. It fades and sinks. IMO, Buchholz would do well to learn that pitch. Ditto Bard. It would make them more effective against lefties, because it gives them one more pitch to worry about. Sometimes it's a good idea to show it on a first pitch to a lefty. That gets in his head.

    I just got through watching the game on delay. I thought Salty handled Buch very well. It's interesting that Buch did well with VMart too (one of the few that did).

    Salty had a fine night behind the plate. He scooped every pitch in the dirt. He denied the plate to Hannahan. And he called a good game. His pitchers did not have good enough control to benefit consistently from how he set up batters. The kept missing on the out pitch.

    Agreed.

    We won't speak about his bat. What bat, you say?

    I was Ok with VTek's bat and arm as long as the pitcher's did better with him. Any plus from Salty's bat and arm would be gravy, if he can keep up the improvement.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]well, then, 5, as usual the Sox will have banked money to keep the wrong guys or the guys who least produce, while the guys who actually do produce or do well in a Sox jersey are deemed "out of their price range."  Hardly anyone agreed with me when I claimed that the CC deal would cripple us for 7 years. Then when the Sox have money again after Ellsbury leaves, they undoubtedly will spend it all on one guy, a pitcher, and then we will all cringe when we learn the pitcher has arm trouble and is age 31. danny, I love Jacoby and want him here until he is 34-35 years old or so. However, he really is not a proven player worthy of $20M a year x 6 or 7 years at age 30 (winter of 2013-2014). As much as I disagreed with the CC signing, at least he had put up several years of decent numbers. I didn't think CC was worth anywhere near $20M/yr, but unfortunately that will set the bar for Ellsbury. If Jacoby comes back this year and hits like he did in 2011 for 1.5 more years, he will want and get $20M+ x 6 or 7. If we sign him for that, our budget will be severely restricted, unless we dump other high salary players. Yes, Papi should be gone by 2014, and that alone would pay for his raise, but I still am not sure we want about 1/4th of our salary budget spent on just our OF. I get your point, but I just am not sure the Sox will offer what others will, and I don't think Jacoby will take even an equal offer. These two reasons lead me to believe he should and will be traded.  I'm going to take this time to say I'm sick and tired of the mantra that the Sox are always out of the bidding on their own players. It's pretty weak, and right now, pretty pathetic. Most of their "own players" were not worth what others signed them for, with the possible exception 1 or 2 guys. I had hoped we traded Youk and kept Beltre, but would that be any more loyal? (Youk was a longtimer-Beltre a 1 yr stud.) Damon had no place to play here, and would not have put up the numbers that Yankee stadium helped him achieve. His cost and length were both too much. Letting Pedro, Bay, and the trading of Nomar were all clearly the right choices. The VMart situation was debatable, but once we got AGon, it was really hard to keep VMart and Papi, since no way could VMart be a FT catcher for 2+ years, let alone 4. danny, do you see the possibility of us signing Jacoby for $140M/7 and then watch him never come close to 2011 nmbers again, of get hurt often? I'm not sure any FA at 30 years old or older is worth that kind of length.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]

    you make valid points on what do you get from a high-priced contract. it's a tough call, but Ellsbury is a valuable player at least in my opinion.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    you make valid points on what do you get from a high-priced contract. it's a tough call, but Ellsbury is a valuable player at least in my opinion.

    Only softy disagree with this point. I think we'd have 3-5 more wins this year if he had been here and healthy. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    If Ellsbury can come close to replicating what he was last year, he would be worth more than Crawford. He's a true CF, while Crawford isn't. He would have way more pop than Crawford did even in Crawford's peak year. I hope we get 2 picks for him. I'm not even thinking about trying to sign him. He'd be worth way more to the Yanks or Phillies. Some team like that.

    I'm a huge fan but we should take the picks. What a difference a guy like that can make in a team though. This lineup would have been a juggernaut if he were rolling.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    So many fans resigned to thinking he's gone. That means the Sox PR spin machine is working to perfection. Allow all fans to think Ellsbury wants out of Boston, is leaving no matter what, has hurt feelings from 2 years ago. Makes it easier for the organization to just shrug its shoulders and say "well, we just didn't have the resources to pay Ellsbury his worth"....and the contenders did.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    If Ellsbury can come close to replicating what he was last year, he would be worth more than Crawford.

    But, the tricky part is that Crawford is not worth what he is getting paid.

    At the time of the signing, I thought he might be worth up to $12-13M x 6, but he's not eveen living up to that either. So, if Crawford was worth $12-13M and is now worth way less than even that, how much is Ellsbury worth?

    You shouldn't look at CC making $20M+ and go from there. If that were the case, if Ellsbury has 1.5 more years of 2011 ball, he'd be worth $40M a year. He isn't. And at 30 years old when his contract runs out, I'd shy away from a 6 or 7 year mega-deal.

    My main point is really from jacoby's point of view. I am 99% sure that he does not want to play here. It's not just about Youk, but also management, the media, some fans, and maybe even the culture here vs the left coast. 

    I am certain he will be gone, so I look to get something for him. That is not to say I want to give him away, or that I think less of him than you do. I think there is a team out there that would give a king's ransom to get Jacoby for 1.33 years (and 2 playoff seasons). If we could get him to agree to extend (not likely), we could get even more. If we are out of it by July 31st, I'd be OK with trading him for 3-5 prospects, and then use some prospects to deal this winter for a top starter and a big right-handed bat (OF'er).
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]So many fans resigned to thinking he's gone. That means the Sox PR spin machine is working to perfection. Allow all fans to think Ellsbury wants out of Boston, is leaving no matter what, has hurt feelings from 2 years ago. Makes it easier for the organization to just shrug its shoulders and say "well, we just didn't have the resources to pay Ellsbury his worth"....and the contenders did.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]I don't think the PR machine is working on fan perception rearding Ellsbury at this point. They have much bigger issues.

    The team has made some big commitments already, the Werth and Crawford deals last year set bad market comps. The player will be looking to maximize his earnings in his next contract, it will be the vast majority of the wealth he will collect while in baseball.

    A hard look at the RS, their roster, current contract obligations and future contract requirements is going to make it very hard to retain Ellsbury. No bad guys here on either side, it will just be business... 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fivekatz. Show fivekatz's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]well, then, 5, as usual the Sox will have banked money to keep the wrong guys or the guys who least produce, while the guys who actually do produce or do well in a Sox jersey are deemed "out of their price range." Then when the Sox have money again after Ellsbury leaves, they undoubtedly will spend it all on one guy, a pitcher, and then we will all cringe when we learn the pitcher has arm trouble and is age 31.  I'm going to take this time to say I'm sick and tired of the mantra that the Sox are always out of the bidding on their own players. It's pretty weak, and right now, pretty pathetic.
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]Under this ownership group the RS have let so many of their own players walk because they have been very good at accessing the value of their own guys at contract time.

    The RS failing has been their inability to be as objective and accurate in their assessments of FA from other teams.

    Damon and Lowe are the closest things to arguing the RS FO made a mistake in letting those guys go. Whil DLowe worked through it his issues off the field at the time were ominous nd he brought them on to the diamond often in 2004. While Damon hit well during his contract with the NYY, for the majority of it he ddid so in LF and DH, positions the RS had entrenched superstars already. And Damon's subtraction facilitated Ellsbury's addition in 2008.

    Just my take
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II : I don't think the PR machine is working on fan perception rearding Ellsbury at this point. They have much bigger issues. The team has made some big commitments already, the Werth and Crawford deals last year set bad market comps. The player will be looking to maximize his earnings in his next contract, it will be the vast majority of the wealth he will collect while in baseball. A hard look at the RS, their roster, current contract obligations and future contract requirements is going to make it very hard to retain Ellsbury. No bad guys here on either side, it will just be business... 
    Posted by fivekatz[/QUOTE]

    What if we traded CC for Zito, or Wandy, or Santana, or Peavy? We save some cash and maybe fill a starter slot. Now, is signing Ellsbury more possible?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, just one example. Salty and his pitchers drove Santana crazy. First time, he was sure they were trying to get him low and in. On three and two, he opened his front foot  slightly. They got him to ground out easily on an outside FB. That AB messed him up for the day. That's what a well-called AB can do. 
    All in all, Salty had another very good day between the ears. But, of course, the pitchers did the real work!
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I know Ellsbury has been through a lot in Boston but there have been some great things here also. If they ponied up a Crawford like contract he would consider staying. I just don't see that happening again unless big changes happen in the next 2 years with available cash. 

    Also, it's tough to hit HR over the RF fence in Boston. Ellsbury would hit 10 more per year in Philly or for the NYY. Also, Fenway's CF isn't optimized for him defensively and it's probably not in our interest for him to run as much here in boston.

    Rather than pay him the contract he probably is going to get I would take the picks. I just hope he plays well enough to earn the picks. Besides, we may well have his replacement on the near horizon in JBJ.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, just one example. Salty and his pitchers drove Santana crazy. First time, he was sure they were trying to get him low and in. On three and two, he opened his front foot  slightly. They got him to ground out easily on an outside FB. That AB messed him up for the day. That's what a well-called AB can do. 
    All in all, Salty had another very good day between the ears. But, of course, the pitchers did the real work!

    I watched tonights game on delay, but was distracted for much of it (it's my birthday). I'll go back and watch the AB.

    I'm glad Salty and our pitchers are doing much better. If Salty turns the whole CERA thing around, he'll be doing it at an earlier age than VTek!
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Rather than pay him the contract he probably is going to get I would take the picks. I just hope he plays well enough to earn the picks. Besides, we may well have his replacement on the near horizon in JBJ.

    You'd rather have the picks under the new system than what we could get in trade?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I was thinking of starting a thread called "Where are all the sourcoaters?"
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Small sample sizes, but the two pitchers I mentioned trading for the most this past winter were:

    Wandy R.  ERA:  1.99  WHIP: 0.994
    Ga. Floyd  ERA:  2.43  WHIP: 0.950 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, regarding trading Ellsbury, this team still has a chance to turn things around. He was one of the top 4-5 players players in baseball last year. I'm not trading him if I think we can still win this year or next. This is Boston, not Pittsburgh!

    If we can get some pitching, and he comes back strong ( unlikely but possible this year at least ) we can still win this. I like our pen and Middlebrooks has changed things a lot. If we can just get some starting pitching....
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II:
    [QUOTE]Moon, just one example. Salty and his pitchers drove Santana crazy. First time, he was sure they were trying to get him low and in. On three and two, he opened his front foot  slightly. They got him to ground out easily on an outside FB. That AB messed him up for the day. That's what a well-called AB can do.  All in all, Salty had another very good day between the ears. But, of course, the pitchers did the real work! I watched tonights game on delay, but was distracted for much of it (it's my birthday). I'll go back and watch the AB. I'm glad Salty and our pitchers are doing much better. If Salty turns the whole CERA thing around, he'll be doing it at an earlier age than VTek!
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    For goodness sake, Moon, you let a little thing like your birthday distract you from baseball. Now I've heard everything.
    But HAPPY BIRTHDAY.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Boom I do not think you trade Elles for prospects that is for sure. However you could trade him for equal value whether it comes in the form of a starter or a masher. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'd trade anyone for better value but we don't usually look at trading our best players in Boston any more. Ellsbury had a tremendous year in 2011 and probably would have had a great year in 2012 if not injured. This is a guy who in large part made the Sox the best offensive team in baseball last year. Even with injuries to Youk and Crawford this team was tremendous offensively. Ells is still underappreciated in Boston.

    We are still only 6.5 games back. We are still way in this. We could be 3 games up by the all star break. Anything can still happen if we start getting the projected performances from our top 3 starters.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Moon, regarding trading Ellsbury, this team still has a chance to turn things around. He was one of the top 4-5 players players in baseball last year. I'm not trading him if I think we can still win this year or next. This is Boston, not Pittsburgh!

    If we can get some pitching, and he comes back strong ( unlikely but possible this year at least ) we can still win this. I like our pen and Middlebrooks has changed things a lot. If we can just get some starting pitching....

    I'm not saying trade Jacoby now. However, if we are down 10-12+ games at the deadline, I'd think we could get more for him then that the winter, since the team getting him will get 2 playoffs out of him.

    I'm not giving him away. If we don't get equal value, then he stays and we get the picks. My point about "equal value" is that the value we'd get in return would be for more than 2013 alone. I'm not giving up on 2013 by trading jacoby either. We'd have more money freed up on top of a hefty sum to begin with, plus the player we get for jacoby could help in 2013 or be part of a trade to get pitching and a RH'd slugger.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Boom I do not think you trade Elles for prospects that is for sure. However you could trade him for equal value whether it comes in the form of a starter or a masher. 

    Or, you flip the prospects gained in the trade, add a couple more, and get something really special.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    Ellsbury had a tremendous year in 2011 and probably would have had a great year in 2012 if not injured. This is a guy who in large part made the Sox the best offensive team in baseball last year. Even with injuries to Youk and Crawford this team was tremendous offensively. Ells is still underappreciated in Boston.

    Boom, I do agree some people undervalue Ells, but I do not think I do. You remember that it was mostly you and I who battled softy for pages and pages on Jacoby's value and upside. 

    Saying I think it is best if we trade him is not saying I do not think he is great. Yes, the Sox do not have a history of trading away their one of their best players in his prime, but the circumstances are different here. Much different. I wouldn't say trade him if I wasn'ty convinced he is walking after 2013. I think that what we can get in return for Jacoby probably will far outweigh the comp picks and 1 season of Ells in 2013. If not, he stays.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    I'm not saying you are devaluing Ellbury Moon. I'm not even saying trading Ellsbury is inherently a bad idea. I'm saying that it is extremely unlikely. We are probably going to ride him until his contract is through, because we are a big market team which attempts to win it all every year. Now if we are 10-15 games out by the all star break either this year or next ( particularly next ), then maybe. I don't think that is likely though.

    I've been maintaing for a while now that if we can just get some starting pitching, this team could go on a roll. We may be on one right now.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part II

    It all boils down to the obvious: Does the FO plan on over-paying Elles to stay here with a mege deal? They should already know.
     

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