A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    As the trade deadline approaches, the Sox are looking at several options:
    1) Status quo
    2) Be sellers and shoot for a ring in 2013 and beyond
    3) Be buyers and go for a ring this year and maybe beyond
    4) Be sellers and buyers by trading dead weight and then picking a player(s) that can help us now and hopefully beyond

    Although this thread is about 2012, no moves should be made without thinking of our future. Here`s an earlier breakdown I posted on part II:

    Assuming nobody gets traded and every arb player is signed, I figured the Sox will have a little over $20M to spend next season and still stay under the luxury tax limit. This does not include Papi’s possible deal. We can probably get by without Dice-K, Jenks, Padilla, Cook and Shoppach, but losing Papi would be a huge loss. Here’s a quick look at our 2013 team and beyond: 

    Sox players listed in reverse order of years of team control: 

    2012 is Their Last Year (unless extended or accept arb):

    Dice-K: Almost certainly gone after this year if not sooner.

    Podsednik: probably worth more to us than what we’d get by trading him, but we’d have to trade someone else or get creative with the DL, or send/keep Nava, Kalish and Sweeney to AAA.

    Cook: 5/ 6th starter and then maybe offered arb or extended.

    Padilla: Set-up man: arb offer?

    Shoppach: May want to seek a more meaningful role elsewhere next year, especially with Lava breathing down his neck.

    Ortiz: The big off-season decision that will affect several further moves. His Red Sox heroics are legendary. His performance has been grand. There are a lot of reasons to extend Papi, and there are areas of team weakness that need fixing as well. We probably can’t do both via signings.

     

    Trading some of these players to contenders for prospects could help us going forward, but some of these guys will not bring much in return. Some could be replaced without hurting our chances this year too much at all.

     

    Free Agents after 2013:

    Ellsbury: Trading Jacoby makes a lot of sense to me, since in my opinion, he will not want to play here after 2013, even if we match or offer slightly more than the highest bidder. New rules dictate that trading him after next year begins means the team getting him can not get the comp picks if they lose him to free agency after 2013. To me, this means his value will be highest from this deadline to the day before 2013 starts. I would not just give Jacoby away. We could use the comp picks ourselves, and 1.5 years of Jacoby playing hard for us as he seeks to raise his open market free agent status would help our chances this year and next. We also have some great OF prospects on the rise. This decision may be even bigger than the Papi one.

    Saltalamacchia: To me, how this season ends for Salty will determine a lot. Stamina and durability seemed like an issue last year, so this year is a good test in that area.  With Lavarnway itching to get his shot, Salty’s durability/stamina test this August and September may determine our willingness to extend him beyond 2013. Extension or not, Salty could be a trade candidate as well, if we decide to go with Lava. Conversely, we could extend Salty and trade Lava. The Papi decision also has a lot to do with this call, since Lava could be our DH/back-up catcher (or 3rd string catcher) if Papi walks.

    Sweeney: With so many lefty OF’ers in the system, I see Sweeney as the odd man out. I think he could be traded this deadlinenow that CC or Ells are up. He is so bad vs LHPs, and not really that great vs RHPs that it really forces him to be at most a platoon OF’er/late inning defensive type OF’er.

    Punto: I never understood why we gave this guy 2 years, but he may end up being traded before his 2 years are up anyways, especially if Aviles is pushed to the utlity IF’er position or if somehow we keep Lillibridge instead.

    R. Hill: Depending on his health and performance, he may be traded or offered arb or an extension.

    (Lester has a team option at $13M with a $250K buyout for 2014. My guess is he stays or gets traded, but this option is given.)

    (I believe Iglesias is out of options after 2013, but he is still under team control. I am not sure about his arb status, but I read somewhere he will be out of options after this year.)

     Trading any of these guys this deadline or this winter could happen, especially if we look beyond 2013 as out best chance to win it all. 

    Free Agents after 2014:

    Beckett: Big guy to lose. Big money freed up as well.

    Bailey: Expected to be our closer until at least his contract expires.

    Aceves: Hard to lose this guy.

    Aviles: May be our super-utility IF’er by 2013 or 2014.

    Miller: Expendable.

    Morales: May be a key player from here on out. Extending him might become a priority between this winter and next.

    (Pedroia has a team option at $11M with a $500K buyout. Given.)

    (Lackey has injury clause option at min wage.)

     

    Free Agents after 2015:

    Pedroia: (see above)

    Lackey: (see above)

    Bard: Who knows.

    Lillibridge?

    (Buchholtz has a team option at $13M with a $245K buyout)

     

    Free Agent after 2016:

    Buchholtz: (see above) plus, he has a team option for 2017 at $13.5M or a $500K buy out.

    Atchison: He’ll be 40 by 2016.

    Melancon: Could be retained if doing well.

     

    Free Agent after 2017:

    Crawford

     

    Free Agent after 2018:

    Gonzalez

     

    Pre-arb players:

    Middlebrooks

    Lavarnway

    Doubront

    Mortensen

    Kalish

    Nava

    Tazawa

    Lin

    Carpenter

    Stewart

    Anderson

    Britton

    Gomez

    Pimental

     

    Prospects not on the 40 man roster:

    Barnes

    Bogaerts

    Bradley

    Brentz

    T Shaw

    Linares

    Marreo

    Swihart

    Cecchini

    Jacobs

    Ranaudo

    Wilson

    Workman

    Owens

    Johnson

    De la Cruz

    Light

    T-W Lin

    Vinicio

    Coyle

    Hassan

    Butler

    And more…


    Let`s keep this thread "real" and try to keep politics and personal vendettas off this thread... PLEASE!

    Part II reference:

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Back from Lencois and no internet. Am in Salvador, Bahia for another week.

    The last 7 games missed. I need to replay them.

    Boom, the Papi decision is the big choice from which everything else follows.  I can`t see us letting him walk, but his contract will take up almost all of the budget. (Unless we go over the limit.)
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Moon...you didn't miss much!

    I say let's off Papi arb again. If he leaves we get a pick if he stays near the same numbers he has now. If he stays hopefully we get the same stud we had this year.

    I'm fine with either.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    What do you think Moon? 

    Wandy?
    Johnson?
    Felix?
    Garza?

    It looks like no one is giving away short term talent. I hope they don't make any deal if it involves a top 8 prospect.

    We have about a week left. My vote is Felix!
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : And this is why the Sox will always be considered NY's little brother. They don't take care of their hero's & their history like they should. It takes away from the team. If you ask casual fans off the street & outside of the NE area to name the 10 greatest Sox players ever, you will get Williams, Fox, Yaz, and 7 other names who differ. Now ask the same fan the same question about NY outisde of NY area and you will probably see that they all agree with at least 70 % of the names. I will say it again, Papi and Pedey must retire as Boston Red Sox, just like Pedro should have.
    Posted by jesseyeric[/QUOTE]

    Absolutely no offense intended, but what about Bernie Williams and Matsui?
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I didn't want to sign Ortiz last winter and I don't want to spend the money required for him next year either. I certainly agree that from a PR standpoint it's huge to sign him and from a performance standpoint he has earned every penny. I look at guys like Mauro Gomez though, who is hitting .329 right now with 20 HR in AAA at 27 years old. He can't field worth a darn but he can rake. And he is dirt cheap. He's even hit .300 in 30 AB in the majors this year and just came off a 5 for 5 game. He's a "Pocket Ortiz" for 1/30th the price. And we could rest some others at DH from time to time also. Or use Lavarnway there for additional roster flexibility at catcher, enabling more pinch hitting options late in the game. We could have had Buerhle for less than Ortiz cost us. I'd STILL rather use that money for a starting pitching stud. And eventually Ortiz is going to tank.
    Posted by Boomerangsdotcom[/QUOTE]


    Boomer, I've always respected your opinion and farm knowledge, but as far a Ortiz goes, I think sometimes it's best to go with a 'given' as opposed to a 'potential'.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Sign Ortiz for 2 years, 30 million or 112 million less than CC for 7. One thing's for sure, Big Papi will hit for power, RBI, and OBP, all the things that CC is incapable of providing.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Iggy has 2 options left Moon, Lilly was traded for a 26yr old AAA pitcher today....
    Bottom line is if this team doesnt address the pitching situation, there will be no playoffs...Tazawa and Morales should be starters IMO...Since Tazawa had TJS hes gained 3-4MPH on his FB and his secondary pitches, although good before, are better with more seperation of his FB...He should be in the rotation along with Morales, if not this year than def next year...Doubront will not make it through this season IMO, although next year we could see 160+ innings from him...Its all about our pitching...If we can solve that problem we have a shot..If we cant, well.....see you in 2013...
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Boomer, I've always respected your opinion and farm knowledge, but as far a Ortiz goes, I think sometimes it's best to go with a 'given' as opposed to a 'potential'.
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]

    Heh Amp! I know only 10% of the people here agree with me. They didn't agree with me about Beltre versus Adrian Gonzalez either but I'm not sure that worked out in our favor considering what we gave up in that deal and the added cost of Gonzalez. Did you see that bare handed play Beltre down the 3rd base line on Ciriaco? Ask yourself if anyone else in baseball makes that play. I don't think Ciriaco had a clue what he was getting into there. That might be the best play on a bunt I've ever seen down the 3rd base line:


    Put Andrus and Beltre on the left side and you probably can knock .35 runs off your entire pitching staff's ERA. Beltre was relatively cheap, still has hit well, could have been signed for fewer years and the defensive value and positional value are way better than Adrian's. Just saying! I think I was right on that one.

    Regarding Ortiz last winter, I would have preferred spending that money on Buerhle. To me an ideal situation is that Ortiz gets a FA deal and we get a pick plus another 17 mil or so to spend. That's a lot of moolah for a DH. And at 37, wanting a 2 year deal, Ortiz will eventually go down hard. I offer him arb AGAIN and hopefully take the pick if he leaves! If not we keep him motivated and are only on the hook for 1 year.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Iggy has 2 options left Moon, Lilly was traded for a 26yr old AAA pitcher today....

    Thanks for the updates. I`ve been out of the loop for a week.

    I read somewhere that after Iggy`s deal runs out, he loses the options and must remain on the ML roster or DFA`d.

    Bottom line is if this team doesnt address the pitching situation, there will be no playoffs...Tazawa and Morales should be starters IMO...Since Tazawa had TJS hes gained 3-4MPH on his FB and his secondary pitches, although good before, are better with more seperation of his FB...He should be in the rotation along with Morales, if not this year than def next year...Doubront will not make it through this season IMO, although next year we could see 160+ innings from him...Its all about our pitching...If we can solve that problem we have a shot..If we cant, well.....see you in 2013...

    I have said it is all about the pitching since day 1. Having 3 solid starters (in theory this spring), and a bunch of question marks to fill the 4-5 slots is not the way to build a rotation. I`d rather have quality than quantity, as long as we have guys like Cook as our 6th starter.

    I said from the start that Bard and Doubront cant go 160+ IP, so there has always been an obvious need for another top starter, even if everyone stayed healthy and was on top oif their game.

    I haven`t given up on this year, but I think any trade we make has to be as much about 2013 and beyong than 2012. I would not trade good prospects for a 2 month rental.

     I would trade Sweeney or Nava for a prospect.

     I would trade Salty or Shoppach for a prospect(s)...or Lava as part of a package for a 2-slot starter or better.

     I would trade Albers and/or Atchison for a prospect.

     I`d think about trading a starter in a package deal to upgrade at starter pitching with several years of team control.

     I`d look to trade Crawford to the team willing to pay the most of his deal.

     I`d look to trade Ellsbury for a hefty return.

     I would offer Papi arb or a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option that lessens the luxury tax hit... something like $28M/2 with incentives to make up to $30M/2 and a 3rd year club option at $12M with a 2M buyout making the deal essentially a 2 year $30M guaranteed with $2M in incentives. I know this eats up a lot of our spending budget, but Papi is the man, and by making the other trades I listed, we will have saved enough money to be under the cap this year and set up nicely for next year.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from harv53. Show harv53's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Jessey, I don't disagree with you at all, from the point of view of a fan who gets emotionally attached to the players.  It would kill me to see Papi playing for another team.  I also agree that it would be good PR and that Boston could use some of that. I actually think that offering him arb this year was giving him somewhat of a thank you contract, although it was also in the Sox' best interest to do so.  I just don't know how far the FO would be willing to go in terms of a thank you contract. With the new luxury tax rates and the way that those big contracts seem to be handcuffing the Sox, I don't see the Sox handing out a deal that doesn't make business sense, regardless of who the player is.  The Yankees historically have been much more willing to take care of their own.  The Red Sox, not so much.  Maybe with Ben it will be different.
    Posted by RedSoxKimmi[/QUOTE]

    No. Ben is all about bean counting and he is too young to have developed any people skills, let alone have any compassion.
    These young GMs have made baseball too much a business and not enough a pleasure.
    For the life of me, I can't understand how this bonehead got promoted to GM on the 2nd highest payroll team, unless it is just a title and LL is really running the show.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I have said it is all about the pitching since day 1. Having 3 solid starters (in theory this spring), and a bunch of question marks to fill the 4-5 slots is not the way to build a rotation. I`d rather have quality than quantity, as long as we have guys like Cook as our 6th starter.

    The problem is how do you get that solid starter?

                          starts     ERA     WHIP
    Morales             5         3.46    1.15 
    Cook                 6         3.50    1.03
    Doubront          19        4.54    1.40
    Floyd                18        4.46    1.32
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I think Theo was onto at least one thing. Getting players in their prime is important. Few would have thought that Morales would have done so well but he has emerged in his prime. Buchholz is emerging now in his prime. it happens. Waiting to sign guys after they are 30 is not ideal. Too expensive and their performance often degrades.
     
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  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    If we are a good team we should be able to put up a 5-4 sequence. We have been underperforming all year. Something is not right with the pitchers, especially the starters. Maybe a combination of just bad pitching ( control, stuff...etc ), not all that great run prevention including left side defense and catcher but overall not that great in terms of defense in the OF either in the OF. It's been a factor also I think.

    It seems like we hit the ball in a line drive and it gets caught. When other teams hit the same ball it doesn't seem to get caught as often. Overall team defense is an underated factor in baseball. Just look at Texas and how their entire staff seemed to improve when Andrus came on board.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Beltre did a nice job at 3b for Texas too
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]Beltre did a nice job at 3b for Texas too
    Posted by dannycater[/QUOTE]
    I absolutely agree Danny. I thought of citing both but their pitching started improving when it was Michael young at 3rd. Beltre has just taken it up another level. Texas is a great team.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I have said it is all about the pitching since day 1. Having 3 solid starters (in theory this spring), and a bunch of question marks to fill the 4-5 slots is not the way to build a rotation. I`d rather have quality than quantity, as long as we have guys like Cook as our 6th starter.

    The problem is how do you get that solid starter?

                          starts     ERA     WHIP
    Morales             5         3.46    1.15 
    Cook                 6         3.50    1.03
    Doubront          19        4.54    1.40
    Floyd                18        4.46    1.32
    tom, from ther start I said there is little chance that our big 3 starters (Beck/Lest/Buch) would all stay healthy and have good years all at the same time. This was the main reason I wanted a solid #2 starter. (Floyd was not the only guy I mentioned.) The fact that Morales and Cook have done better than Floyd has not changed the fact that we'd be a lot better off had we found a solid #2 starter who gave us 6 IP x 18 starts.

    I'm thrilled with Morales and Cook. Doubront has done about as expected, but can not give us 32 starts and 190+ IP this year.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I have said it is all about the pitching since day 1. Having 3 solid starters (in theory this spring), and a bunch of question marks to fill the 4-5 slots is not the way to build a rotation. I`d rather have quality than quantity, as long as we have guys like Cook as our 6th starter. The problem is how do you get that solid starter?                        starts     ERA     WHIP Morales             5         3.46    1.15  Cook                 6         3.50    1.03 Doubront          19        4.54    1.40 Floyd                18        4.46    1.32 tom, from ther start I said there is little chance that our big 3 starters (Beck/Lest/Buch) would all stay healthy and have good years all at the same time. This was the main reason I wanted a solid #2 starter. (Floyd was not the only guy I mentioned.) The fact that Morales and Cook have done better than Floyd has not changed the fact that we'd be a lot better off had we found a solid #2 starter who gave us 6 IP x 18 starts. I'm thrilled with Morales and Cook. Doubront has done about as expected, but can not give us 32 starts and 190+ IP this year.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Yes you did, Moon. You were right from the start, and are still right.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    This reminds me of the Smoltz/Penney year.

    Quantity over quality rarely works in MLB.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I´ve almost always been just about the last poster to give up on the Sox during any year since 2004, but I am really starting to think this team just won´t stay healthy enough and won´t get turn-arounds from Lester and others needed to have a strong chance at a 2012 ring. I´m sure Card´s fans might have thought the same in 2011 about their team, but I am hoping we don´t trade any of our top 4-6 prospects for a 2 month rental that won´t make us the favorites anyways. If we make a trade for a pitcher that is under team control for 2013 and beyond, then I´ll consider any trade.

    At this point, I think we should try and get under the luxury tax limit this year without giving up on 2012. Trading Crawford would be my first choice, but it would be hard. I´d look to trade Sweeney, Pods, Salty or Shoppach, and 2 of Padilla, Albers, Atchison, Miller along with a starter (Cook, Doubront, Lester?) for prospects. Look to trade Ellsbury now or this winter. Maybe try and get a pitcher under team control for 2+ years, but the price will likely be too high at this time of year... better to get one this winter. I don´t see this as giving up on this year, especially if we can get a ML ready pitcher for the stretch run.
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]I´ve almost always been just about the last poster to give up on the Sox during any year since 2004, but I am really starting to think this team just won´t stay healthy enough and won´t get turn-arounds from Lester and others needed to have a strong chance at a 2012 ring. I´m sure Card´s fans might have thought the same in 2011 about their team, but I am hoping we don´t trade any of our top 4-6 prospects for a 2 month rental that won´t make us the favorites anyways. If we make a trade for a pitcher that is under team control for 2013 and beyond, then I´ll consider any trade. At this point, I think we should try and get under the luxury tax limit this year without giving up on 2012. Trading Crawford would be my first choice, but it would be hard. I´d look to trade Sweeney, Pods, Salty or Shoppach, and 2 of Padilla, Albers, Atchison, Miller along with a starter (Cook, Doubront, Lester?) for prospects. Look to trade Ellsbury now or this winter. Maybe try and get a pitcher under team control for 2+ years, but the price will likely be too high at this time of year... better to get one this winter. I don´t see this as giving up on this year, especially if we can get a ML ready pitcher for the stretch run.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    Moon, just out of curiosity, is Salty on your "would trade" list ( in the right deal, I assume ) because you think the Sox would get more for him than, say, for Lavarnway? Or do you think, as several people do, that Lavarnway is the better long-term choice at catcher, and should not be traded, even in a nice deal for Boston?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    Noticing Shoppach starts again for Beckett. 2 starts in a row for Shoppach. I get the impression they are about to trade him. I like the tandem of Shopp-Salty and would rather the Sox just keep the two. Salty btw should be DHing tonight, not Ciriaco, who is now 2 for his last 20.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    I'm not trading Ellsbury before next winter, and probably not then either. He's one of the very best players in baseball. Would the Reds trade Votto? Would Detroit trade Cabrerra?

    There are times when I don't understand why the Ellsbury trade option comes up. I would trade anyone for the right deal but we do not have very many players even near Ellsbury in ability, in his prime, and we don't have anyone who can step in and give us nearly the same production from CF. 

    If we have any hope for the remainder of the year in making the playoffs, Ellsbury is one of the guys who makes that happen. He often starts slow but he usually finishes strong. 
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jesseyeric. Show jesseyeric's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III

    In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: A Realistic Look at 2012: Part III : Absolutely no offense intended, but what about Bernie Williams and Matsui?
    Posted by ampoule[/QUOTE]

    Bernie retired as a Yankee - a bit forced maybe, but a Yankee and they had a Bernie Williams Day within a year or two. He is an all-time great.

    Hated seeing Matsuii leave, but he is not going in the record books as one of the all-time great Yanks.

    See the difference.

    Big Papi may not have started in Boston, but he is an all-time great.
     

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