A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    If we load up on pitching in the off season I really think we have a chance at the playoffs next year. We have the money to spend. Kuroda and Sanchez would really solidify the rotation and chances are the lineup can make a comeback if we get any sort of health next year. Middlebrooks, Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury all can potentially put up great numbers and maybe 1 or 2 other guys step up or we sign someone else in the off season. Experience has shown that when guys go for intense conditioning in the off season they come back with career years. For example Yaz, Ellsbury, Youk, Pedroia all had tremendous years after starting intense conditioning programs in the off season. Iglesias might come back and actually win the SS job in 2013.

    I still cannot believe how Lavarnway has tanked. I don't understand how he could be so consistent for so long and now can't connect when the ball is over the plate and seems to be consistently guessing wrong when that outside slider is coming. Something is very wrong somewhere. Maybe he never dealt with a slump in the minors and has no idea what to do now. Maybe it's overuse this year at catcher. Maybe some small injuries he's struggling with. It doesn't seem to make sense that he would project as a middle of the order bat his entire minor league career and now is struggling to hit. 160. This sort of thing seems to happen to catchers a lot at the end of the year. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    I looked at Loney's career stats, it's "okay" and not "bad".  

    Twice he had seasons with at least 90 RBIs and in 2008 and 2009, he batted .280 and better.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I still cannot believe how Lavarnway has tanked. I don't understand how he could be so consistent for so long and now can't connect when the ball is over the plate and seems to be consistently guessing wrong when that outside slider is coming. Something is very wrong somewhere. Maybe he never dealt with a slump in the minors and has no idea what to do now. Maybe it's overuse this year at catcher. Maybe some small injuries he's struggling with. It doesn't seem to make sense that he would project as a middle of the order bat his entire minor league career and now is struggling to hit. 160. This sort of thing seems to happen to catchers a lot at the end of the year. 

    So, had we traded Salty and made Lava the FT catcher this year, would it have been a good idea? (In hindsight)

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    I looked at Loney's career stats, it's "okay" and not "bad".  

    Twice he had seasons with at least 90 RBIs and in 2008 and 2009, he batted .280 and better.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    But that was 3+ years ago...

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from SanCap. Show SanCap's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Here is one a bit wild and extensive idea on what we could do to improve our team for 2013, but more importantly for 2014 and beyond:

    1) Offer Papi $13M/1. If he walks and signs elsewhere we get a comp pick. If not, we keep our legend where he belongs: retiring in Fenway.  Chances are nobody will come close to offering him that, so I get the argument about lowballing him, but this is Papi we are talking about, folks.

    2) Sign Brandon McCarthy at $26M/3 or $32M/4. He will turn 30 next July. Yes, he has an injury history, but I'd prefer this gamble than Greinke at about $20M/yr. 

    3) Sign Cody Ross at $20M/3. Turns 32 this December. He is a great fit for Fenway, especially as a LF'er and future DH when Papi retires. 

    4) Sign Hiruyoki Nakajima (SS) according to notin, no posting fee is needed.

    5)
    Trade: Jacoby Ellsbury &  Junichi Tazawa
    to SF
    For: Hector Sanchez (Switch-hitting catcher who turns 23 in November and is pre-arb)& Sergio Romo (Turns 30 in March and has 2 arb years left).

    6)
    Trade: Mike Aviles, Bryce Brentz, Jose Iglesias, Garin Cecchini  , & Henry Owens or Anthony Ranaudo

    For: Justin Upton (Just turned 25 & is under team control for 3 years @ 13:$9.75M, 14:$14.25M, 15:$14.5M )

    7)
    Trade: Ryan Lavarnway,  Brandon Jacobs, Jose Vinicio, and Sean Coyle

    For: Brett Anderson (LHP who turns 25 in February & is under team control for 3 years)  13:$5.5M, 14:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout),15:$12M club option ($1.5M buyout)

     

    8)
    Trade: Alfredo Aceves, Ryan Kalish, , and  Che-Hsuan Lin
    to Nats
    For: Mike Morse (Turns 31 in March makes $7M in 2013 and then is a FA: a bridge to Gomez, Travis Shaw, Jerry Sands, Bogaerts who could be moved to 1B)

    We keep Bogaertts, Bradley & Barnes, and have this for 2013 and beyond...

    C: Salty / Sanchez  (Swihart)
    1B: Morse  /Gomez or Sands (Shaw)
    2B: Pedey / DeJesus
    3B: Midds / Ciriaco (Valencia)
    SS: Nakajima / Bogaerts (Marrero/ T-W Lin)
    LF: Ross / Linares
    CF: Sweeney / Bradley
    RF: Upton /  de la Cruz
    DH: Ortiz

    SP1: Buch
    SP2: Lest
    SP3: Anderson
    SP4: McCarthey
    SP5: Lackey
    SP6: Morales/Doubront (de la Rosa/ Webster/ Barnes/ Workman)

    CL: Bailey
    RP: Romo:
    RP: Breslow
    RP: Mortensen
    RP: Miller (Stewart)
    RP: Hill   (Carpenter)
    RP: Melancon/ Bard / Atchison  (Wilson/ Beato)

     

     

    Bold thinking.  Just what is needed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from pumpsie-green. Show pumpsie-green's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    SP1: Buch
    SP2: Lest
    SP3: Anderson
    SP4: McCarthey
    SP5: Lackey
    SP6: Morales/Doubront (de la Rosa/ Webster/ Barnes/ Workman)

    This rotation, listing Buchholtz as our #1, is not good enough. I think Delarosa might be better than #6, but he is unproven. We will need a lot of luck in getting a bona fide #1 SP.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from cassvt2004. Show cassvt2004's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I think Jake Peavy is a realistic target for the top of the rotation.  Lester, Buch, Felix and Lackey/De la Rosa all slide in nicely behind him.  He would require a lot per year in salary but not a long term deal in terms of years.  He also seems like he has the personality/temperment to handle Boston.  For positin players, I'd target Kendry Morales in a trade scenario.  The Angels have a surplus at 1B/DH.  Thoughts?

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The 93-win Oakland Athletics, who shed more than $10 million in salaries with the exits of Kurt Suzuki and Brian Fuentes, should have no problem meeting the modest $2.5 million raise owed next year to 24-year-old ace lefthander Brett Anderson.

    Anderson is not a realistic trade target (certainly not for Boston's struggling 25-year-old former No. 4 prospect and its current No. 17, No. 18 and No. 35 prospects, according to SoxProspects).

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The 93-win Oakland Athletics, who shed more than $10 million in salaries with the exits of Kurt Suzuki and Brian Fuentes, should have no problem meeting the modest $2.5 million raise owed next year to 24-year-old ace lefthander Brett Anderson.

    Anderson is not a realistic trade target (certainly not for Boston's struggling 25-year-old former No. 4 prospect and its current No. 17, No. 18 and No. 35 prospects, according to SoxProspects).

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree with you.  Oakland can afford to keep him.

    The Oakland clubhouse looks like a bunch of hardworking guys who work hard and play hard. 

    They are now 7 outs away from winning the AL West. 

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from GreenPartyCelt. Show GreenPartyCelt's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The A's clinch the Al West division...Watch out, Detroit....They have to be the AL faorites to reach the Fall Classic...Down 5-1 in the  third, and they destroy the suddenly limping Rangers 12-5... If ever a team looked like it had destiny written on its forehead, this is the one...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom2. Show proftom2's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I don't see many changes this off season other than a new manager. I see a new 1b, not sure who. I see 2b Dustin, SS iggy, 3B Mids, CF Jacoby, RF Sween, LF not sure, DH Papi, C Salty/Lav.

    Starters I see Lester, Buch, Lacky, Dupo, and not sure, bullpen I think remians the same.

    All the not sures I see filled with mid-range injury recovery type guys, kind of high rick low pay types.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to pumpsie-green's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    SP1: Buch
    SP2: Lest
    SP3: Anderson
    SP4: McCarthey
    SP5: Lackey
    SP6: Morales/Doubront (de la Rosa/ Webster/ Barnes/ Workman)

    This rotation, listing Buchholtz as our #1, is not good enough. I think Delarosa might be better than #6, but he is unproven. We will need a lot of luck in getting a bona fide #1 SP.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree. I'd much rather have Buch as a number 2, but I think trying to get an ace will be too costly, both financially and in players needed to trade (unless we sign Greinke). Maybe we can get "lucky" as we did years ago with Pedro. Maybe one of our young pitchers will morph into the next Clemens. Maybe we can find a salary dump old vet with a couple of great & clutch years left in him like Schill. Maybe.

    I do not thinbk Greinke is the answer. I do not thinbk trading for Cliff Lee is the answer. I do not think trading for Felix Hernandez is possible, unless we give up all of our top prospects.

    The next best option (as exampled here) is to try and get 2 starters who can be as good as solid #2-3 type starters. Then, next winter we try hard to get an ace, and our 2-5 slots will compliment the ace nicely and be close to top notch- in theory.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think Jake Peavy is a realistic target for the top of the rotation.  Lester, Buch, Felix and Lackey/De la Rosa all slide in nicely behind him.  He would require a lot per year in salary but not a long term deal in terms of years.  He also seems like he has the personality/temperment to handle Boston.  For positin players, I'd target Kendry Morales in a trade scenario.  The Angels have a surplus at 1B/DH.  Thoughts?

    [/QUOTE]


    I like Peavy, but think he will be way over-priced.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The 93-win Oakland Athletics, who shed more than $10 million in salaries with the exits of Kurt Suzuki and Brian Fuentes, should have no problem meeting the modest $2.5 million raise owed next year to 24-year-old ace lefthander Brett Anderson.

    Anderson is not a realistic trade target (certainly not for Boston's struggling 25-year-old former No. 4 prospect and its current No. 17, No. 18 and No. 35 prospects, according to SoxProspects).

    [/QUOTE]


    In theory, yes, but then why did they dump Gio, Bailey & Sweeney last winter under very similar conditions?

    Anderson now is not as good as Gio was after last season. It didn't take the Nats that much to get Gio.

    My offer may be a bit weak, but I do not think it is way off the mark. I'd consider sweetening the deal as well. It's hard to tell what the A's think about the prospects I listed. I am a firm believer that some GMs think radically different than others about other team's prospects. The A's may not want Lava at all, or they may view him as our top prospect. I'm flexible, and I hope Ben is as well.

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from iamme17. Show iamme17's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The 93-win Oakland Athletics, who shed more than $10 million in salaries with the exits of Kurt Suzuki and Brian Fuentes, should have no problem meeting the modest $2.5 million raise owed next year to 24-year-old ace lefthander Brett Anderson.

    Anderson is not a realistic trade target (certainly not for Boston's struggling 25-year-old former No. 4 prospect and its current No. 17, No. 18 and No. 35 prospects, according to SoxProspects).

    [/QUOTE]


    In theory, yes, but then why did they dump Gio, Bailey & Sweeney last winter under very similar conditions?

    Anderson now is not as good as Gio was after last season. It didn't take the Nats that much to get Gio.

    My offer may be a bit weak, but I do not think it is way off the mark. I'd consider sweetening the deal as well. It's hard to tell what the A's think about the prospects I listed. I am a firm believer that some GMs think radically different than others about other team's prospects. The A's may not want Lava at all, or they may view him as our top prospect. I'm flexible, and I hope Ben is as well.

     

    [/QUOTE] The difference between last year and this year is the A's win the division this year and stunk last year.After winning this year they will at least want to challenge next year so the chances of trading an important cog for leftovers ain't gonna happen.
    Instead of dumping key personel i can see Beane going the other way and actually invest in a high priced free agent....he did it with Cespedes so i wouldn't be shocked if he did it again if he thinks he has the backbone of a good team now.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to iamme17's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The 93-win Oakland Athletics, who shed more than $10 million in salaries with the exits of Kurt Suzuki and Brian Fuentes, should have no problem meeting the modest $2.5 million raise owed next year to 24-year-old ace lefthander Brett Anderson.

    Anderson is not a realistic trade target (certainly not for Boston's struggling 25-year-old former No. 4 prospect and its current No. 17, No. 18 and No. 35 prospects, according to SoxProspects).

    [/QUOTE]


    In theory, yes, but then why did they dump Gio, Bailey & Sweeney last winter under very similar conditions?

    Anderson now is not as good as Gio was after last season. It didn't take the Nats that much to get Gio.

    My offer may be a bit weak, but I do not think it is way off the mark. I'd consider sweetening the deal as well. It's hard to tell what the A's think about the prospects I listed. I am a firm believer that some GMs think radically different than others about other team's prospects. The A's may not want Lava at all, or they may view him as our top prospect. I'm flexible, and I hope Ben is as well.

     

    [/QUOTE] The difference between last year and this year is the A's win the division this year and stunk last year.After winning this year they will at least want to challenge next year so the chances of trading an important cog for leftovers ain't gonna happen.
    Instead of dumping key personel i can see Beane going the other way and actually invest in a high priced free agent....he did it with Cespedes so i wouldn't be shocked if he did it again if he thinks he has the backbone of a good team now.

    [/QUOTE]


    Yes, they signed Cespedes, but only because they cut more salary elsewhere. The A's budget is over $10M less this year than last. Yes, they may raise the budget now that they are looking more competitive, buit their recent model has shown that they look to trade players who are close to making more than $2M with further arb or scheduled raises in sight.

    It's not certain they will trade Anderson. But, I am sure they will entertain offers. Anderson was not even a big part of this season's success, so losing him this offseason does not really weaken the 2013 team as compared to this year's team.

    I'm not locked into Anderson. I mentioned his name as a possible trade option for a younger pitcher rather than spending big on older over-priced vets,

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

     

    Oakland won the AL West despite the long-list of misfortunes

    1. Dallas Braden: Never pitched a single game this year
    2. Brandon McCarthy: Got hit on the head by a line-drive
    3. Bartolo Colon: Being stupid and got suspended 50 games
    4. Brett Anderson: Coming off Tommy John

    I wonder how the Red Sox franchise would be now if Billy Beane did decide to become the Red Sox GM ten years ago. 

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    I would definitely be interested in Shields and Peavy if they became available.  Greinke will cost a lot , but he is easily the best of the free agents. Certainly better than our current starters.  This is not a great year for free agent pitchers.  What is clear is that we have got to do a better job in developing our own young pitchers.  I would absolutely give Tazawa a shot at the rotation. He has the best stuff on the staff.  I'm not sure how much another pitching coach can help , but it can't be any worse than it is.  Basically , the whole organization has some soul searching to do this off season.  We now have plenty of money to spend. The key will be to spend it wisely.  I am not too big on improving through trades.  The chances are too great that Ben will be out foxed on any deal with a sharper G.M.  Let's hope things change quickly , because many of us do not have the patience for a lenghty rebuilding program. 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    The A's will lose Brandon McCarthey ($4.3M in 2012) to free agency, but the also shed $5.5M from poor-producing Brandon Inge ($0.5M buyout), $2M for Bartolo Colon, and $1M for Gomes. Total: just over $10M.

    They will likely not take Stephen Drew's $10M option (but no real savings).

    The following set raises are set to take place:

    Anderson: +$2.5M

    Cespedes: +$2M

    Crisp: +$1M

    Balfour: +$0.5M (assuming they take his $4.5M option)

    Total: $6M not counting arb or pre-arb raises which shouldn't be too much.

     

    They look to have about the same player budget if they make no signings or contract additions. They will miss McCarthey and Colon & Gomes to some extent, but could probably replace some of them if they wish to raise the budget. 

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Right now I'm thinking that I'd like to see Webster and DeLaRosa given every shot to make the 2013 rotation, as well as Tazawa and Morales. I would also have to seriously consider overpaying Peavy if he could be had on a one year deal.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to carnie's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Right now I'm thinking that I'd like to see Webster and DeLaRosa given every shot to make the 2013 rotation, as well as Tazawa and Morales. I would also have to seriously consider overpaying Peavy if he could be had on a one year deal.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'd be fine with 2 slots open to Doubront, Morales, Tazawa, Webster & de la Rosa (maybe Moretensen too). Chances are someone will get hurt, so 3 slots might be open in 2013 as well. However, I do think we should look to add one solid young starter with 3+ years of team control to the roster this winter. This pitcher, along with Buch and Lester would be 1-3, and the rest compete for 4 & 5.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    Final Sox OPS (200+ PAs):

    Papi  1.026

    Midds  .835

    AGon  .812

    Ross   .807

    Shop  .798

    Pedey .797

    Salty  .742

    Nava  .742

    Chir   .702

    Ells    .682

    Swee .675

    Pods  .674

    Aviles .663

     

    Our top 6 IP pitchers had an ERA over 4.56.  Five were over 4.82 & three over 5.23.

    Out of our top 12 pitchers by IP (45 IP+), only Morales (3.77) and Atchison (1.58) had ERAs below 4.50.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121004&content_id=39485296&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

     

    Mr. moonslav Brian McCann might be aquirable.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnchiladaT. Show EnchiladaT's posts

    Re: A Realistic Look At 2013: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I still cannot believe how Lavarnway has tanked. I don't understand how he could be so consistent for so long and now can't connect when the ball is over the plate and seems to be consistently guessing wrong when that outside slider is coming. Something is very wrong somewhere. Maybe he never dealt with a slump in the minors and has no idea what to do now. Maybe it's overuse this year at catcher. Maybe some small injuries he's struggling with. It doesn't seem to make sense that he would project as a middle of the order bat his entire minor league career and now is struggling to hit. 160. This sort of thing seems to happen to catchers a lot at the end of the year. 

    So, had we traded Salty and made Lava the FT catcher this year, would it have been a good idea? (In hindsight)

    [/QUOTE]


     

    So would we still be in last place? Yes we would. 

     

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