A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    By my calculations if we win tonight (10 to 5 now) then we only have to win one vs. Balt. to get the best overall record for home field throughout--is that right?  I think A's have one fewer game left than we do...

    Critter

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:

    Salty is having an excellent season.



    Some context:

    Salty's .338 OBP is better than all but 6 team catcher OBPs.

    Salty's .465 SLG is better than every team in MLB catcher SLG%.

    Salty's .803 OPS is better than all but one team's catcher OPS (CLE .823).

     

    To think that softy the clown called him a "back-up profile" is laughable.

     

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Moon, I sill appreciate Theo for most of what he did and believe he had an eye for talent.  He really wanted Salty and saw something that hadn't as yet bloomed.  The last catching coach worked him hard too, and Salty himself seemed to come with a great attitude of wanting to turn things around.   Those numbers are impressive.

    Critter

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    By my calculations if we win tonight (10 to 5 now) then we only have to win one vs. Balt. to get the best overall record for home field throughout--is that right?  I think A's have one fewer game left than we do...

    Critter



    We are 96-63 (3 games to play).

    Oak is 94-65 (3 games to play).

    If Oakland wins out, we need to win 2 of 3 games to avoid a tie.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Moon, I sill appreciate Theo for most of what he did and believe he had an eye for talent.  He really wanted Salty and saw something that hadn't as yet bloomed.  The last catching coach worked him hard too, and Salty himself seemed to come with a great attitude of wanting to turn things around.   Those numbers are impressive.

    Critter



    Salty was tried at 1B for a bit with Atlanta. He was benched and yo-yo'd between MLB and AAA numerous times.

    Theo gave him a legitimate chance. Salty has improved in every area of his game, except CS%, but sadly, that is one stat so many people value way out of proportion.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from youkillus. Show youkillus's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Compare this year's team to last year's and notice that the offens is producing at about the same clip. 734 runs in 2012, and 815 this year; (factor in the loss of Papi, and A-Gon last year). Next look at the pitching, a big statisitical difference is in HR's allowed.

    2012: 190

    2013: 152

     The starting pitching accounts for most of this differential, although it's been popular to credit the hard working bullpen. Starters in 2012 gave up 126 long balls. The 2013 starting staff sits at 85.

    Lester  25-18

    Doubie 24-13

    Buck    25-2

    Lackey/Demp 52

    Beckett/Cook/Dice 42

     The 2012 bullpen threw more innings but gave up 3 less homers than the 2013 celebrated mop up men. Credit the starting staff with the turnaround. Give a nod to the new manager, the "clubhouse guys" added, and the emergence of Nava, or the leadership of Papi and Pedroia if you want, but none of them threw even one pitch! Let's have a day at Fenway for Juan Nieves, the best addition to the team in 2013.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to youkillus' comment:

    Compare this year's team to last year's and notice that the offens is producing at about the same clip. 734 runs in 2012, and 815 this year; (factor in the loss of Papi, and A-Gon last year). Next look at the pitching, a big statisitical difference is in HR's allowed.

    2012: 190

    2013: 152

     The starting pitching accounts for most of this differential, although it's been popular to credit the hard working bullpen. Starters in 2012 gave up 126 long balls. The 2013 starting staff sits at 85.

    Lester  25-18

    Doubie 24-13

    Buck    25-2

    Lackey/Demp 52

    Beckett/Cook/Dice 42

     The 2012 bullpen threw more innings but gave up 3 less homers than the 2013 celebrated mop up men. Credit the starting staff with the turnaround. Give a nod to the new manager, the "clubhouse guys" added, and the emergence of Nava, or the leadership of Papi and Pedroia if you want, but none of them threw even one pitch! Let's have a day at Fenway for Juan Nieves, the best addition to the team in 2013.



    I also think a more balanced scoring output has helped a lot. Our mean runs scored is a solid 5. We've had less blowout wins, and more 5-8 run games.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    While handing out kudos to the pitchers, and they are rightly deserved, let's not forget the tandem of Salty and Ross who are catching this staff very effectively. Salty is not just having a good offensive season.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    W hile handing out kudos to the pitchers, and they are rightly deserved, let's not forget the tandem of Salty and Ross who are catxhing this staff very effectively. Salty is not just having a good offensive season.



    Salty showed growth with the staff after a rough April last year. He has continued to improve this year. 

    I know the staff improvement is not all about Salty & Ross, but they do deserve some credit.

    The CS% blinds so many Sox fans to just how much softy has grown behind the plate.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Updated OPS leaders:

    .960  Ortiz

    .887  Carp

    .839  Napoli

    .822  Nava

    .809  Vict

    .804  Salty

    .784  Pedey

    .776  Ells

    .775  Drew

    .772 Gomes

    .714  Middy

     

    Pretty awesome to have 10 guys with an OPS over .770 (11 if you count Iggy). If Drew and Gomes heat it up over the last 2 games, we may see Ellsbury end up with the 10th best OPS on the team.

    .

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Any thoughts on the last roster spots for the PS? Bradley Jr. or Berry? Boegarts or McDonald? Do they REALLY need Thornton? Would you value extra-fast base-stealing speed and excellent defense? Or would the more well-rounded rookies make more sense? Could we atleast have Boegarts on it instead of Thornton? I'm expecting a lot from our starting pitching anyway 'cause it's do or die time.  

     

     

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to emp9's comment:

    Any thoughts on the last roster spots for the PS? Bradley Jr. or Berry? Boegarts or McDonald? Do they REALLY need Thornton? Would you value extra-fast base-stealing speed and excellent defense? Or would the more well-rounded rookies make more sense? Could we atleast have Boegarts on it instead of Thornton? I'm expecting a lot from our starting pitching anyway 'cause it's do or die time.  

     

     

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"



    I could see us going with just 10 pitchers due to all the rest we will have before our first series begins.

    (Does anybody else think 5 days between games is too much and borders on being a disadvantage, especially if a team is hot going in to thye playoffs?)

    I think a 10 man staff could be dangerous, if we have to use a bunch of pitchers in game 1 or two, or we have a 15 inning game somewhere.

    As of now, I'd go with this:

    Lester (game 1 starter and gm 5, if needed)

    Buch (game 2 starter)

    Peavy (game 3 starter)

    Lackey (game 4 starter, if needed)

    Doubront (Mid-long relief)

    Dempster (Mid-long relief)

    Morales (Mid-long relief)

    Breslow 

    Tazawa

    Uehara

    (11th pitcher?  Workman, Thornton, or Britton)

     

    The 15 positional players (or 14, if we go with 11 pitchers):

    Ellsbury

    Victorino

    Pedroia

    Ortiz

    Napoli

    Nava

    Salty

    Drew

    Middy

    Ross

    Gomes

    Carp

    Bogaerts (not McDonald, IMO)

    Bradley (possibly Berry instead)

    Berry (if we go with 10 pitchers)

     

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I'd go with Bradley over Berry. When the pressure is on I'm not certain Berry will even pull the trigger on the only thing he does well...steal bases? He's not going to give us the value Bradley does, as our OF is still very tenuous. Both Victorino and Ellsbury could go down at aany time. I would almost definitely take Bradley.

    Bogaerts is a given. Absolutely, as our reserve infielder. Maybe even a start or 2 against LH pitching.

    Gotta say, Salty has come on strong lately. Go Salty. I still want my pick!

    Just kidding guys. I'm not a Saltyu advocate but I can't deny he has given good value this year.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here is the guy I want to talk about:

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/onenationmlb09172013/sizing-cuban-slugger-jose-dariel-abreu

    Scouts are complaining that he's not in shape. Imagine is you were in  Cuba working for $10 a day and think about the kind of shape you would be in.

    If this guy is available for $60 mil i'm a buyer. I'd roll the dice with him.

    Look at some of his numbers:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Jos%C3%A9_Dariel_Abreu

    One year he had an OBP of .592 in the Series Nacionale and slugged 1.544! He was a potential triple crown winner in Cuba every year recently. He hits for average and power.

    The guy is supposed to have some flaws, such as his conditioning, but he is still just 26 years old and he has been working out with a trainer since defecting. The same rap was out there for Puig also but look at him now. I'm rolling the dice with this guy if at all possible.

    His rep is that he gets hit by pitches at a record pace as they try to bust him inside constantly. Even in 90 game seasons the guy gets hit 30 times. This looks to me like he wants to pull the ball and in Fenway, for a right handed hitter his size, that might not be such a bad idea. My guess is that the Sox will be all over Dariel Abreu in the next 6 months. All over him like a wet blanket. What....if....the ....guy....is ... a....megastud! Imagine the lineup then for years to come!

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I'd go with Bradley over Berry. When the pressure is on I'm not certain Berry will even pull the trigger on the only thing he does well...steal bases? He's not going to give us the value Bradley does, as our OF is still very tenuous. Both Victorino and Ellsbury could go down at aany time. I would almost definitely take Bradley.

    Bogaerts is a given. Absolutely, as our reserve infielder. Maybe even a start or 2 against LH pitching.

    Gotta say, Salty has come on strong lately. Go Salty. I still want my pick!

    Just kidding guys. I'm not a Saltyu advocate but I can't deny he has given good value this year.

     



    Salty was a great deal last year too.

    I agree on Bradley over Berry, but with 10 pitchers we can have both.

    If Victorino or Ellsbury get hurt during the playoffs, we can always go with Nava in RF and Gomes in LF, so Bradley or Berry would still be on the bench.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Pence has evidently been offered 90 mil/5 yrs by Giants.  That's way more than I think he's worth.  Great attitude and team play...but yikes!  Also Pandas been told to get in shape.  Should we be interested in Timmy "The Freak" L ?  He has interest in the Northwest so speculation about Seattle.  He's learning how to pitch with a diminishing fastball and changing body and has done well in last several starts.  His W-L the last two years is not impressive.

    Critter

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to jcri's comment:

    Pence has evidently been offered 90 mil/5 yrs by Giants.  That's way more than I think he's worth.  Great attitude and team play...but yikes!  Also Pandas been told to get in shape.  Should we be interested in Timmy "The Freak" L ?  He has interest in the Northwest so speculation about Seattle.  He's learning how to pitch with a diminishing fastball and changing body and has done well in last several starts.  His W-L the last two years is not impressive.

    Critter



    If those rumors are true, I think that puts to bed the earlier talk that the Giants could not have afforded Ellsbury.

    If they sign Pence to that, they probably can't afford Ellsbury too, but that contract may set the level for Choo and Ellsbury.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Both Choo and Ellsbury might top that. It just goes to show the new reality since the recent CBA change. It will be tougher for the teams with money to differentiate themselves. They can't do overslot draft signings any more. Their international signings are limited with 16 year olds. The big opportunities this winter are that young Japanese pitcher and Dariel Abreu. Both can be had mainly just for cash. 

    Top market teams will play for the Abreu types and scour the FA market because they will not be able to compete for draft picks since generally they will draft in slots 20 - 30. 

    The Redsox had this figured out early. They held on to their top prospects and did some short term FA signings which could potentially turn over for picks. The Redsox are the bomb!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Both Choo and Ellsbury might top that. It just goes to show the new reality since the recent CBA change. It will be tougher for the teams with money to differentiate themselves. They can't do overslot draft signings any more. Their international signings are limited with 16 year olds. The big opportunities this winter are that young Japanese pitcher and Dariel Abreu. Both can be had mainly just for cash. 

    Top market teams will play for the Abreu types and scour the FA market because they will not be able to compete for draft picks since generally they will draft in slots 20 - 30. 

    The Redsox had this figured out early. They held on to their top prospects and did some short term FA signings which could potentially turn over for picks. The Redsox are the bomb!



    Right.

    It makes me wonder if we end up with Abreu. He may take up a large part of the luxury tax amount we have to spend this winter, but how else can we get top young talent like this drafting 20-30?

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Both Choo and Ellsbury might top that. It just goes to show the new reality since the recent CBA change. It will be tougher for the teams with money to differentiate themselves. They can't do overslot draft signings any more. Their international signings are limited with 16 year olds. The big opportunities this winter are that young Japanese pitcher and Dariel Abreu. Both can be had mainly just for cash. 

    Top market teams will play for the Abreu types and scour the FA market because they will not be able to compete for draft picks since generally they will draft in slots 20 - 30. 

    The Redsox had this figured out early. They held on to their top prospects and did some short term FA signings which could potentially turn over for picks. The Redsox are the bomb!

     



    Right.

     

    It makes me wonder if we end up with Abreu. He may take up a large part of the luxury tax amount we have to spend this winter, but how else can we get top young talent like this drafting 20-30?

    [/QUOTE]

    i also wouldn't be surprised if he jumped the luxury tax line this coming offseason either. Henry has always invested back into the team. They could have gone cheap AKA "the softlaw route" after the megadeal and punted on 2013. Instead they dumped the cash back into the team and produced world beaters. IMO i think it's more likely we go over the tax in 2014 than stay under. just my hypothesis though.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

      If memory serves, the last time Tito got to playoffs, he was resting all regulars going in and team seemed to lose rhythm.  Glad to see Farrell resting selectively but I for one don't like it when  hearing "Oh these games are just scrimmages now."  Think that's a dangerous button to turn off and on.  Sounds like he's keeping team busy this week so he may have remembered --I just don't like this layoff.  And Doobie's  2nd inning today, wow.  I guess if he's doing one inning stints ok, but that was'nt reassuring about long relief.                 

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    He may have pitched himself right off the playoff roster.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Right.

     

     

    It makes me wonder if we end up with Abreu. He may take up a large part of the luxury tax amount we have to spend this winter, but how else can we get top young talent like this drafting 20-30?

     



    i also wouldn't be surprised if he jumped the luxury tax line this coming offseason either. Henry has always invested back into the team. They could have gone cheap AKA "the softlaw route" after the megadeal and punted on 2013. Instead they dumped the cash back into the team and produced world beaters. IMO i think it's more likely we go over the tax in 2014 than stay under. just my hypothesis though.

     

    Ben may have to get the OK from Henry to go over the luxury limit, but I think for the right set of players, he will be allowed to go over. We lose a lot of salary after 2014, so it can reset itself.

    I figured after arbs, we'll have about $35M to spend, assuming we let Thornton go. I think there are two ways we can add significantly to that number:

    1) Trade Dempster for a low level prospect, which also adds a 40 man roster slot to save a borderline rule 5 player. This adds about $13M to our spending budget.

    2) Restructure Lackey's deal from $16.5M (luxury number for 2014) + $500K team option for 2015 to

    $8.6M x 2. Lackey gets slightly more money, but the luxury cost is reduced from $16.5M to $8.6M. This adds about $8M to the 2014 spending budget, but takes away about $8M from 2015.

    If we did both of these things, we'd have about $56M to spend for 2014. That is more than enough to fill the 3 major open slots (C, 1B, CF) and 2 minor slots (UIF'er & RP). We could even do this:

    (Warning: not my plan)

    Ellsbury $18M/yr

    Napoli $14M/yr (or Abreu)

    Salty  $12M/yr

    Mujica $8M/yr

    B Ryan $4M/yr

     

    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    On Salty and CERA...

     

    Sox4ever2013 Pitcher by Pitcher (IP) CERA & OPS against:

    (Red indicates a differential of 0.25 or more on ERA or .030 in OPS Against)

                           w/ Salty                  w/ Ross                 w/ Lava

    Lester     (143)  3.58/ .671      (70) 4.11/ .770            n/a

    Lackey   (147)  3.06/ .687     (11) 2.38/ .715          (31) 5.81/ .774

    Demp    (103)  4.62/ .750 )    (48) 3.00/ .711         (19)  8.38/ .985 

    Doub     (135)  3.86/ .708      (9)  8.31/ .871         (17)  3.18/ 711

    Buch       (67)  1.75/.558        (43) 1.73/ .529                   n/a

    Peavy     (33)  4.64/ .743       (20) 2.75/ .573      (12)  4.50/ .599

    The 6 starters:  Ross is significantly better than Ross with 3 of 6 starters, but one of them (Lackey) has a small sample size of just 11 IP. Salty is significantly better with 2 of 6 starters. With OPS Against, Salty is significantly better than Ross with 3 out of the 6 starters, and Ross with just 2 of 6, of which both are small sample sizes of 11 and 20 IP.

                         w/ Salty                   w/ Ross                   w/ Lava 

    Uehara  (54)  1.01/ .379       (14)  1.32/ .432        (6) 1.50/ 4.50

    Tazawa (49)  2.55/ .716       (15)  4.11/ .763        (4) 7.36/ .954

    Breslow (43) 2.32/ .677        (7)  0.00/ .390         (9) 0.96/ .590

    Workm (18) 5.00/ .728        (4) 4.15/ .635         (19) 5.12/ .800

    On the surface, it looks like a clean split: 2-2, but the two that Ross leads in are tiny sample sizes.

     

    If you look at the top 8 Sox pitchers by innings pitched, the record is like this:

    Significant disparity:

    CERA:  Salty +4 and Ross +3 (1 very close).

    OPS:  Salty +5 and Ross +2 (1 very close)

     

    Now, let’s look at how Sox pitchers have done with Salty from year to year:

     

    CERA & OPS against with Salty from 2011 to 2013:

                          2011                                                   2102                                   2013

    Lester:   3.77/ .717 (VTek 2.48/ .577) 5.62/ .869 (Shopp 3.70/ .638)  3.58/ . 671

    Lackey:  6.31/ .874 (VTek 6.82/ .769)             n/a                                   3.06/  .687

    Doubr:  5.19 .828  (VTek 10.80/.875)   4.95/ .777 (Shopp 4.18/.769)  3.86/  .708

    Buchh:  3.52/ .662 (VTek  3.38/ .841)   6.30/ .935 (Shopp 3.23/ .622) 1.75/  .558

    Taza:   6.75/ 1.000 (Lava  5.40/ .946)  1.45/ .604(Shopp 0.00/1.100)   2.55/ .716

    Bres:     n/a                                               3.95/.670  (Shopp  0.00/ 5.00)   2.32/ .677

     

    Of the 6 pitchers who have pitched to Salty over the last 2-3 years with the most IP, 5 of the 6 have had better CERAs with Salty this year. Only Tazawa has declined. 4 of 6 have improved in OPS Against with 1 being all but equal.

    If you look at the disparities between Salty and VTek in 2011, then Salty and Shoppach in 2012, and compare them to the disparities in 2013 with Ross and Lava, it is more than clear that Salty has not only improved in this area immensely, one could even say he is now a plus in the area of handling a pitching staff.

     

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