A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

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    A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    The Peavy trade has changed the make-up of this team as well as some future choices at a number of positions.

    The 2013 Depth chart as it seems to stand now:

    SP: (DL Buchholz) Lester, Peavy, Lackey, Doubront, Dempster, Workman

    RP: Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Britton, Thornton, Beato, de la Torre, A Wilson

    C: Salty, (DL Ross), Lava, Vazquez, Butler 

    1B: Napoli, Carp, Nava, Papi (at NL parks), Snyder, Sutton

    2B: Pedroia, Holt, Diaz

    SS: Drew, Holt, Boggy

    3B: Holt, Snyder, Middlebrooks, Boggy

    LF: Nava, Gomes, Carp, Hazelbaker

    CF: Ellsbury, Victorino, Nava, JBJ

    RF: Victorino, Nava, Carp, Brentz

    DH: Papi, Carp, Nava, Napoli

     

    If Buchholz comes back strong, our pen will gain a strong long relief man, or some of our starters may get a rest here and there. Lackey may need a breather, and maybe Doubront too, but I's hate to mess with Doubie's groove.

    Uehara needs a breather as well, but it is hard to give your closer a break.

    Salty is on pace to play more innings than ever, but has a history of hitting a wall in the late season. Fluke or something to worry about? I am not convinced lava can carry a heavy load.

    Naps, Gomes and Victorino seem to be coming around a bit.

    We need good health from here on out.

    We may see a waiver-wire deal or two to fill some needs after things shake out with Buch and our 3Bmen.

    Here's a look at 2014... (using average contract yearly salary):

    2014

    $16.5M Lackey (then club option at min. wage*)

    $14.5M Peavy (then very likely a FA- perhaps after a QO)

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (then $13M for 2015 and then FA)

    $13M Ortiz (then FA)

    *$13M Club Option on Lester (with $.25M buyout

    $7.5M Buchholz (through 2015 with club options for $13M '16 & $13.5M '17 w .5M buyout)

    $6.75M Pedroia (signed through 2014 with 2015 club option @ $11M w $.5M buyout)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $3.1M Breslow (then FA)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub Total: ~$96M without Lester (10 players) and $107.5M with Lester (11 players).

    Arbitrations:

    Uehara (3 of 3) made $4.25M in 2013 > $6M

    Bailey (3 of 3) made $4.1M > $5.5M

    Aceves (3 of 3) made 2.65M > $3M

    Bard (2 of 3) made $1.86M > 1M (or DFA'd)

    Morales (3 of 3) made $1.49M > $2M

    Miller (3 of 3) made 1.48M > $2M

    Tazawa (1 of 3) made $815K > $1.25M

    Carp (1 of 3) made $508K > $1.25M

    Sub Total Arb estimate: $23M (8 players)

    Doubront (pre- arb, then 3 arbs) made $518K

    Nava (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Mortensen (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $505K

    Kalish (pre-arb, then 3 arbs) made $498K

    Middlebrooks (pre-arb) made $498K

    Pre-arbs that make $490K this year: Bradley, Britton, Butler, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Lavarnway, Vazquez, Wilson, and Wright.

    Sub Total Pre-Arb estimate: $8M (16 players)

    TOTAL : ~ $139M (35 players with Lester) / 127M (34 players with no Lester)

    That's a total of 31-35 players depending on Lester and Bard, but a few other players might be dealt or cut (Butler, Hassan, Wright)

    5-10 players (Rule 5 pending) that might be added to 40 man roster this winter or lost: add about $3-4M to the total.

    40 man roster total: ~$154M with Lester/ $143M without Lester

    The following players will be eligible for the 2013 Rule 5 Draft if they are not added to the 40-man roster by November 20, 2013:

    Mario Alcantara, Michael Almanzar, Chris Balcom-Miller, Carson Blair, Xander BogaertsBryce Brentz, Chris Carpenter, Garin Cecchini, Keith Couch, William Cuevas, Keury De La Cruz, Luis Diaz, Leonel Escobar, Derrik Gibson, Dreily Guerrero, Jeremy Hazelbaker, Jayson Hernandez, Chris Hernandez, Peter Hissey, Brandon Jacobs, Jeremy Kehrt, Aaron King, Aaron Kurcz, Juan Carlos Linares, Mario Martinez, Heiker Meneses, Boss Moanaroa, Nefi Ogando, Gerardo Olivares, Yunior Ortega, Oscar Perez, Rafael Perez, Mathew Price, Anthony Ranaudo, David Renfroe, Pete Ruiz, Felix Sanchez, Brandon Snyder, Alfredo Soto, Kyle Stroup, Francisco Taveras, Raynel Velette, Jose Vinicio, Kolbrin Vitek, Stefan Welch, Shannon Wilkerson, Brandon Workman, Madison Younginer

     

    So, basically our luxury tax budget will be between $119 and $130M depending on Lester, plus the player pension ($11.1M?) and the Dodger payment of $3.9M for 2014 (then one more for 2015). 

    The final number will be about:

     

    $146M without Lester

     

    $157M with Lester 

     

     

     (not counting extensions, FA signings, trades or player releases)

     

    I'm assuming we keep Lester, so if our intention is to stay below the luxury tax limit, we should have about $32M to spend on a few holes left by departing players.

    My take on our biggest needs with possible in-house solutions in parenthesis (not in any particular order):

     

    1) Big RH'd middle of the order hitter

    2) CF  (Victorino, JBJ)

    3) C    (Ross, Lava, Vazquez, Butler)

    4) 3B  (Middlebrooks, Boggy if we find a SS, Snyder, Holt, Cecchini)

    5) SS (Boggy, Holt, Marrero, Lin, Vinicio)

    6) RP (too many to name)

    7) 1B  (Carp, Nava, Snyder, Papi)

     

    It's pretty certain Boggy will be given every chance to play FT. Carp, Nava and Gomes could maybe handle LF/1B between them. Middlebrooks may be counted on. But, I doubt we go with Ross, Lava and kids at catcher.

    We will probably sign a catcher (Salty?), a corner IF'er (Napoli/Morales/Morneau/Morse?) that eases the pressure at 3B and 1B, and an OF'er who can play CF (Ellsbury?) 3 signings for $32M is not too bad, but if Ellsbury is one of them, it might not leave much to sign a good quality catcher and corner IF'er.

     

    (Note: Maybe this should be Part I of the 2014 Realistic thread.)

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Lava starting tonight against a RHP. I think we should try and give Salty rest vs lefties.

    de la Torre and Workman sent down: Wright and Peavy added.

    Workman cannot be called back up for 10 days. Hmmm...

    Sox4ever

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Lava starting tonight against a RHP. I think we should try and give Salty rest vs lefties.

    de la Torre and Workman sent down: Wright and Peavy added.

    Workman cannot be called back up for 10 days. Hmmm...

    Sox4ever




    After catching for 15innings Im not surprised Lava is in there.

    Workman should start a game in AAA (Wrights spot?) then get called back up

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    weird that they sent Workman back down. I thought for sure that they would move him to the pen. Maybe since he will be unavailable for a few days from starting the game a few days ago and due to the marathon last night they sent him down to give the pen a boost with available players.

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    weird that they sent Workman back down. I thought for sure that they would move him to the pen. Maybe since he will be unavailable for a few days from starting the game a few days ago and due to the marathon last night they sent him down to give the pen a boost with available players.

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?




    exactly why they sent him down. DeLaTorre too. They needed a long man just in case. Wright can pitch 5IP+ if need be,

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Lava starting tonight against a RHP. I think we should try and give Salty rest vs lefties.

    de la Torre and Workman sent down: Wright and Peavy added.

    Workman cannot be called back up for 10 days. Hmmm...

    Sox4ever

     




    After catching for 15innings Im not surprised Lava is in there.

    Yeah, I guess it makes sense, but I still think Salty needs to rest vs LHPs. He's on pace for more innings than ever and has been used more and more vs LHPs since Ross went on the DL.

     

    Workman should start a game in AAA (Wrights spot?) then get called back up.

    I get why they did it, but in 5 days we may regret it.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    Lava starting tonight against a RHP. I think we should try and give Salty rest vs lefties.

    de la Torre and Workman sent down: Wright and Peavy added.

    Workman cannot be called back up for 10 days. Hmmm...

    Sox4ever

     

     




    After catching for 15innings Im not surprised Lava is in there.

     

    Yeah, I guess it makes sense, but I still think Salty needs to rest vs LHPs. He's on pace for more innings than ever and has been used more and more vs LHPs since Ross went on the DL.

     

    Workman should start a game in AAA (Wrights spot?) then get called back up.

    I get why they did it, but in 5 days we may regret it.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    [/QUOTE]


    Then again, I bet they use him in relief in AAA. Its actually good because he can get adjusted to it in AAA and then come up here and not have to do worry about it at the MLB level.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    Lava starting tonight against a RHP. I think we should try and give Salty rest vs lefties.

    de la Torre and Workman sent down: Wright and Peavy added.

    Workman cannot be called back up for 10 days. Hmmm...

    Sox4ever

     

     

     




    After catching for 15innings Im not surprised Lava is in there.

     

     

    Yeah, I guess it makes sense, but I still think Salty needs to rest vs LHPs. He's on pace for more innings than ever and has been used more and more vs LHPs since Ross went on the DL.

     

    Workman should start a game in AAA (Wrights spot?) then get called back up.

    I get why they did it, but in 5 days we may regret it.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Then again, I bet they use him in relief in AAA. Its actually good because he can get adjusted to it in AAA and then come up here and not have to do worry about it at the MLB level.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    i don't think you should start him in AAA. because then he will be unavailable for another 4-5 days. Give him an inning or two in the enxt 10 days then get him back into the bigs. WOW! he was VERRRY good!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    i don't think you should start him in AAA. because then he will be unavailable for another 4-5 days. Give him an inning or two in the enxt 10 days then get him back into the bigs. WOW! he was VERRRY good!

    He can't come back for 10 days, so if they start him in AAA after 5 days, he'll be ready to go after 10 days.

    I agree though, using him in relief may help get him ready for that role.

    We could also use Workman as a starter when he comes back and give Doubront, Dempster and Lackey a start or two off.

    Sox4ever

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Sox OPS the last 28 days:

    .970  Papi

    .876  Naps

    .808  Carp

    .778  Ells

    .758  Salty

    .725  Gomes

    .719  Vict

    .708  Snyder

    .700  Drew

    .699  Nava

    .623  Holt

    .556  Pedey

    .455  Lava

    .391  Iggy (to DET)

     

    Opponents OPS against:

    .244 Uehara

    .396 Wright

    .439 Britton

    .551 Beato

    .653 Doubront

    .666 Workman

    .713 Thornton

    .731 Breslow

    .736 Lester

    .784 Lackey

    .851 Dempster

    .855 Tazawa

    .898 de la Torre

     

    Sox4ever

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    A look at the top contenders on offense....

     

    OPS vs RHPs

    Boston  .811 (.788 vs RH'd starter)

    Detroit  .785 (.783)

    Texas    .742 (.707)

    Tampa  .734 (.742)

    Oakland .709 (.719)

     

    OPS vs LHPs

    Detroit   .789 (.796 vs LH'd starter)

    Tampa   .781 (.765)

    Texas     .723 (.800)

    Oakland .722 (.701)

    Boston .721 (.765)

     

     

    Runs vs RH'd starter

    Boston   387/74 gms

    Detroit   391/77

    Oakland 346/73 

    Tampa   325/73

    Texas     296/75

     

    Runs vs LH'd starter

    Tampa   173/35 gms

    Detroit   158/29

    Boston   158/35 

    Texas     160/33

    Oakland 135/35

     

    Home OPS

    Detroit  .830

    Boston  .808

    Texas   .763

    Tampa  .759

    Oakland .706

     

    Away OPS

    Boston   .754

    Detroit   .745

    Tampa   .740

    Oakland .720

    Texas     .710

     

    OPS by Position:

          <.625  .626-.675  .676-.725  .726-.775  .776-.825   .826-.875  .876>

    BOS     -      3B             -            RF, SS, C, LF     CF, 2B          1B         DH

    DET     -      C             2B,DH,CF    LF              1B,SS, RF          -           3B                

    TBR     -      C              DH, SS       CF, LF       2B, RF, 3B, 1B    -           -

    TEX    SS     -            LF, 1B, 2B, C    DH, CF         -                 RF        3B

    OAK    -    DH, RF, 2B   CF,LF        C, SS, 1B         -                  3B        -

     

    OPS by Line-up Slot:

    BOS      -         -          8, 9           2, 5            3, 7, 1, 6      4               -

    DET      -         -          8, 9, 1       5,6, 7         4                  2               3  

    TBR      -      6, 8          3               1, 9, 7       2, 5              -               1                   

    TEX      2      -            8, 6, 9        3, 1, 7, 5     -                  -               4 

    OAK     9      8, 3         2, 4           1, 7, 6        5                  -                -

     

     

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Contender Pitching (AL only)

    WAR:

    1) Detroit  18.9

    2) Texas    16.1

    5) Boston   13.9

    6) Oakland 11.0

    7) Tampa    10.9

     

    ERA-

    1) Texas  88

    3) Boston 90

    4) Detroit   90

    6) Oakland 92

    8) Tampa 98

     

    WHIP

    1) Oakland 1.19

    2) Tampa    1.20

    3) Detroit   1.24

    7) Texas     1.29

    11) Boston  1.33

     

    xFIP

    1) Detroit  3.39

    4) Tampa   3.71

    5) Texas    3.79

    6) Boston  3.80

    12) Oakland 4.20

     

    There are 107 MLB starting pitchers with 80+ IP this year. The contenders have these starters:

    ERA-

    1) BOS  Buch  41

    4) DET Sanchez 63

    5) Oak Colon  64

    7) TEX Darvish 65

    9) DET Scherzer 73

    11) TEX Holland 74

    15) BOS Lackey 77

    16) TBR Cobb  79

    17) BOS Doub 82

    21) TBR Moore 89

    22) DET Fister 89

    24) TBR Price  93

    26) DET Verlander 95

    29) OAK Griffin 99

    31) BOS Dempster 101 (before tonight)

    32) BOS Lester 102

    33) BOS Peavy 102

    35) OAK Parker 104

    38) OAK Milone 104

    42) DET Porcello 111

    45) OAK Straily 112

    50) TEX Tepesch 113

    52) TBR Hellickson 120

    53) TBR Hernandez 123

     

    The Sox are the only team with 3 guys in the top 17.

    The Tigers are the only team with 4 guys in the top 26.

    The Sox are the only team with 5 guys in the top 33 (we now have 6).

     

    Sox4ever

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    AL Contender Defense:

    UZR/150

    3) Tampa   6.3

    5) Texas    3.2

    6) Oakland 1.2

    7) Boston    0.0 (No Iggy now)

    8) Detroit  -1.7

     

    FP

    1) Detroit  .989

    2) Boston  .985

    3) Tampa  .985

    8) Texas   .973

    14) Oakland .957

    Sox4ever

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    AL

    9 out of 15 teams still within 5 games of a playoff slot:

    Boston   66-44

    Tampa   64-44 (WC1)

    Oakland 63-45

    Detroit   61-45

    Cleveland 60-48 (WC2)

    Baltimore   60-49  -0.5

    Texas         60-40  -0.5

    New York    56-51  -3.5

    Kansas City 54-51 -4.5

     

    The NL has only 6 teams within 8 games of making the playoffs. (The same 6 are with 5 games as well- 1 Pitt, 2 StL WC1, 3 Atl, 4 LAD, Cin WC2, AZ -4.5)

     

     

    Sox4ever

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from dannycater. Show dannycater's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Like Epstein-Francona in 04, it seems everything Cherington-Farrell touches in 13 turns to Gold....I love it.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    hey moon, i see you using ERA- a lot lately.... what does that indicate? and is it a more effective stat than ERA+ in your opinion?

    Some say a storm is coming, Some say the end is near.

    Some think it's all so hazy, I think it's all so clear.

    Some say they have the answers, some say they know the truth.

    Some people live in question, some people have no clue.

    If there was no tomorrow, if there was just today.

    would you make different choices? or would you stay the same?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    ERA- is a little more transparent in my opinion .... and correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA- is also park/league adjusted. 

    It's just a better stat. 

     
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    ERA- is a little more transparent in my opinion .... and correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA- is also park/league adjusted. 

    It's just a better stat. 

     



    thank you but that didn't really answer my question.... how does it differ from ERA+

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to mef429's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    ERA- is a little more transparent in my opinion .... and correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA- is also park/league adjusted. 

    It's just a better stat. 

     



    thank you but that didn't really answer my question.... how does it differ from ERA+

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Try these mef...

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3332194/era-plus-vs-era-minus

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-era-and-era?urn=mlb,wp27285

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Heh guys. I would just give Workman some light duty in AAA to keep him tuned. He's been working pretty hard for a young guy. Nearing his innings limit potentiually. 

    Great games recently huh!

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Heh guys. I would just give Workman some light duty in AAA to keep him tuned. He's been working pretty hard for a young guy. Nearing his innings limit potentiually. 

    Great games recently huh!




    I agree. Hes at 122IP and has never gone over 138IP.

    I think if he gets to about 160-170 he would be done. Thats 30 more than last year, which is usually how they do it. I dont see him getting any more than that working out of the pen the rest of the way.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    In response to mef429's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    [QUOTE]

     

     

    ERA- is a little more transparent in my opinion .... and correct me if I'm wrong, but ERA- is also park/league adjusted. 

    It's just a better stat. 

     

     



    thank you but that didn't really answer my question.... how does it differ from ERA+

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

     

    Try these mef...

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3332194/era-plus-vs-era-minus

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-era-and-era?urn=mlb,wp27285

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks. These articles answered some questions.

    I like pitching metrics that include park factoring.

    No metric is perfect, but some are better than imperfect stats. Ideally, a pitching metric would include park factors, strength of opponent's offenses, defenses behind the pitcher, strength of the catcher's intangibles (pitch framing, pitch calling, pitch blocking, etc...), and more. Nothing comes that close to doing all this, but some are moving in the right direction.

    I've been a big WHIP fan, but even that needs to be adjusted to park factors, defense, etc...

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I find ERA-Ump especially helpful. It replaces crappy umpire strike zones with the actual ones. Laughing

     

    Great stuff here Moon. We'll get a better picture of the 40 Man when they expand soon. 

     

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Great stuff here Moon. We'll get a better picture of the 40 Man when they expand soon. 

    Here's the 40 man roster now (and last year of team control):

    2013: (5) Ellsbury, Salty, Napoli, Drew, Hanrahan

    2014: (11) Ortiz, Lester, Morales, Miller, Bailey, Breslow, D Ross, Gomes, Uehara, Demp, Peavy

    2015: (3) Lackey, Bard, Victorino

    2016: (2) Tazawa, Carp

    2017: (4) Buchholz, Doubront, Nava, de la Rosa

    2018+: (17) Kalish, Lava, Middlebrooks, Britton, Webster, Vazquez, Wilson, Butler, Hassan, Holt, JBJ, de la Torre, Beato, Synder, Workman, Villareal, Wright

    2021: (1) Pedroia

    43 players listed and Kalish, Hanrahan, Ross and Miller are on the 60-day DL. I'm not sure about Bailey, but I think Ross is due off the 60 day list soon, so unless Bailey is on the 60 day DL, we won't have room to add Bogaerts or others unless we trade or DFA someone.

    Looking to the future: we have 5 open slots after this season with Hanrahan's barely noticeable. CF may be filled by JBJ (or Victorino with Nava/Brentz in RF), SS may be filled by Bogaerts, Catcher may be filled by Ross, Lava and Vazquez, and 1B may be filled by Carp, Nava, and Papi in NL parks. I doubt all of these slots are going to be filled from within the system, but 1-2 may be so.

    Butler, Bard, Bailey, Hassan, Villareal and maybe a few others may end up being traded or DFA'd before the rule 5 deadline for resetting the 40 man roster for 2014. Some players that will almost certainly need to be protected or be lost: Bogaerts, Cecchini, Brentz, and Ranaudo.

    If we add these 4 players to the 40 man roster, that leaves just one slot for a free agent signing. That means someone has to go. I mentioned 5 likely candidates above, but anyone could be traded to make room for free agents. I mentioned early this summer, that we should look into trading 2 or 3 for 1 players to make room for borderline rule 5 players, so we don't lose some. The Iggy trade actually was a 1 for 2 trade, which tightens it up even more.

    After 2014, we lose 11 players. Rule 5 gains will likely be Barnes and Swihart plus maybe Coyle, Martin,  or Pena.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Let's compare our pitchers from 2012 to 2013:

                             2012         >         2013

    Lester (205) 4.82/1.383   (143) 4.52/1.367

    Buch    (189) 4.56/1.326    (84)  1.71/0.689

    Doub   (161) 4.86/1.447   (117)  3.77/1.410

    Aceves (84)  5.36/1.321    (37)  4.86/1.730

    Morales (76) 3.77/1.231    (12)  7.30/1.865

    D Bard   (59) 6.22/1.736      (1)  9.00/3.00

    Tazawa (44) 1.43/0.955     (48)  3.00/1.208

    Morten  (42) 3.21/1.214     (30)  5.34/1.582

    Miller    (40) 3.35/1.190     (31)  2.64/1.370

    Breslow (20) 2.70/1.150    (39)  2.54/1.256

    Bailey   (15) 7.04/1.891     (29)  3.77/1.221

    Beato     (8)  4.70/1.174      (9)  3.12/1.154

     

    Replaced:

    Beckett (127) 5.23/1.327  Demp (127) 4.54/1.496

    A Cook   (94)  5.65/1.468  Lack   (120) 3.23/1.192

    Atchison (51) 1.58/0.994  Ueha    (49)  1.46/0.689

    V Padilla (50) 4.50/1.480  Wils     (28)  4.88/1.735

    Dice-K     (46) 8.28/1.708  Web    (26)  9.57/1.899

    Melancon (45) 6.20/1.267  Work  (20)  3.54/1.131

     

    Albers     (39)  2.29/1.144  DLTor (11)  6.35/1.765

    R Hill       (20)  1.83/1.424  Thorn  (8)   2.16/1.560

     

    Team:  (1443)  4.70/1.371   (998)  3.83/1.342

     

    Better pitchers, better defense, better management, better catcher play.

     

    Sox4ever

     

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