A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Talented players but guys who don't care nonetheless. Even Longoria's head doesn't appear to be in the game as much.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    That play Drew made today with the bases loaded was pretty cool and the coolest part of it was Pedroia's reaction. Pedroia remains the absolutely heart of that team. Did you see Drew peak over to see if Pedroia was still raving as he went into the dugout? Looking to him for confirmation of that play for what it was. And Dempster was right there with them. These guys are in the trenches together, even when it probably doesn't seem to mean much any more. Their heads are still in the game. They know they are involved in something special.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    It will be extremely interesting to me to see what they do next year. There really isn't that much talent out there to sign for FA. Maybe they continue to try to hold onto their own ( Napoli, for example ) with QO and if they go they go and if not they still have a talented team. Holding onto their picks and maybe even getting a few more. 

    I think Drew gets a QO but walks anyway. Would you want Bogaerts breathing down your neck for PT? I think he walks.

    I think Ellsbury is a near automatic pick. I really think he's a special player who will be missed but I'd be less than honest if I didn't recognize Victorino as nearly his equivalent for 1/3 the cost, and JBJ can step in and be at least decent. Netting us a valuable pick and saving a whole lot of cash. But what do we spend it on?

    One priority would be to extend Buchholz again maybe. The guy is a heck of a talent and he seems to be a #1 if we can keep him on the field. When he's healthy, he's as good as anyone right now. And if you think about it, his arm should be relatively healthy. He didn't even pitch much in high school or college.

    I'm rolling the dice with a QO to Salty also. And hoping to God he takes the multiyear deal. I honestly think we would be fine with Lavarnway/Ross and Vasquez as injury back up but McCann is one area they may chose to spend their money on.

    Maybe they play bigtime for that new Cuban megastud Abreu. Besides extending Buchholz again, maybe signing Abreu would be one heck of a good use of the cash we have available. That deal might get completely out of control though. But he is RH and we do need a 1st baseman. He's still in his prime and might be a 40 HR guy with relatively decent overall numbers at 1st. Maybe even a top 5 guy at 1st or better. If you look at his numbers, he might be the best 1st baseman in baseball right now. Not saying he will be but you know it's possible. What a jackpot that would be but it's a roll of the dice for sure. At least he doesn't cost more than money though and the Dodgers and Yanks already are set at 1st. We have a shot there.

    The Napoli situation is really interesting. They may well lose the guy if they monkey around and can't get the Abreu sitiation closed. Whether to offer him a QO is one heck of a decision. At least it would be 1 year though, and he would be tradeable at the July deadline if Abreu makes it.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Overall, with the sox being basically 1st in mlb's power rankings right now and Buchcholz looking good, and the farm poised with so much talent in the wings with Bogaerts, Cechinni and Owens we are looking good going forward! What a time to be a Redsox fan guys. We need to recognize this for what it is and thank our lucky stars. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

     

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:

     

     

     


    Love the salary numbers--thanks, moonslav.

    I think the front office will be driven by a desire to keep as much of this team as possible without driving up the overall salaries too much.  They will certainly want to avoid paying luxury tax. 

    Keeping everyone is obviously jeopardized by all those guys becoming free agents, especially Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty.  I am a huge Ellsbury fan, but think he is the least likely to be retained because of his WAR and ability to command $100M or more in salary.  It helps that Bradley had a AAA OPS over .850 this year and plays a good CF.  Just guessing, but I think the Sox keep Drew and and Salty and play Bogaerts at 3B and Middlebrooks at 1B next year.  So I think Napoli goes elsewhere even though right now he is having a heckuva September and overall a pretty good year, plus he handles 1B well.  I also see Gomes, Nava, Ross, etc returning.  Salty stays because right now I think he is the best defensive and offensive catcher on the team. 

    If Buchholz can just stay healthy, he is a bonafide ace with three very capable guys after him in Lester, Peavy, and Lackey.  Plus Doubront might just get into shape for a whole season next year.  So the rotation looks good with or without Dempster.  And the bullpen should be OK too.  I see no big investments in pitching and maybe even use one or more for trades.

    The undeniable but hard to measure factor about this team is the chemistry.  If Ellsbury and Napoli leave, does that affect the chemistry adversely? 

     

     



    So, basically this is your idea...

     

     

    C Salty/Ross

    1B Middlebrooks/Carp (Papi @ NL)

    2B Pedroia/Holt

    3B Boggy/Middlebrooks/Holt

    SS Drew/Boggy/Holt

    LF Nava/Gomes/Carp

    CF JBJ/Victorino

    RF Victorino/Nava

    DH Papi

    It's just about the same team as now, but minus Naps and Ells and plus JBJ and Boggy FT.

    I seriously doubt we let Ellsbury and Napoli go without getting anyone new to replace one. I'm not saying this isn't a very promising team: it is, but I doubt Ben hands over 3 slots to young players (Middy, Boggy, JBJ) and expanded roles by Carp and others.

     

     



    I would try to keep Napoli or sign K Morales if we can't keep Napoli.

     

    One big trade for the right-handed bat...

    C Salty/Ross

    1B Napoli or Morales/Carp

    2B Pedroia/Holt

    SS Boggy/Holt

    3B Middy/Holt

    RF Stanton/JBJ

    CF Victorino/JBJ

    LF Nava/Gomes/Carp

    DH Papi/Napoli/Stanton

    Line-up:

    1) Victorino

    2) Pedroia

    3) Papi

    4) Stanton

    5) Napoli or Morales

    6) Nava/Gomes

    7) Boggy

    8) Salty/Ross

    9) Middy

     

    As you pointed out in another thead, Moon, package Lackey (or Doubront in my opinion because he is younger) plus Workman and 2-3 others for Stanton.  

    Stanton = Lackey (plus some cash) + Workman + Lava (Miami's catching is lacking this year) + 1-2 solid prospects

    I would rather keep Napoli and Gomes if possible. Together with Pedroia and Papi, these four are great for team chemistry. Carp is a great pinch-hitter and I think that spelling Napoli every 4th or 5th game probably would make sense to keep him fresh. Would need Nava and JBJ as I doubt that Victorino and Stanton would play full seasons. 

    Ellsbury is a great player, and nothing against him, but I think he will find greener pastures for longer years than the RS are willing to go. Stanton will be expensive in players but RS will have a pretty strong farm for one big move like this. Obviously, Stanton is inexpensive compared to Ells. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    That play Drew made today with the bases loaded was pretty cool and the coolest part of it was Pedroia's reaction. Pedroia remains the absolutely heart of that team. Did you see Drew peak over to see if Pedroia was still raving as he went into the dugout? Looking to him for confirmation of that play for what it was. And Dempster was right there with them. These guys are in the trenches together, even when it probably doesn't seem to mean much any more. Their heads are still in the game. They know they are involved in something special.

     


    Yes. Great play!

    As I have said Before, I was terribly wrong about Drew's fielding ability, and last night drove the point home.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Here's an interesting angle.

    Ben got Loeny included in the AGon deal, who turned out to be a pretty fine player this year. He got Carp for very cheap, and had Overbay in camp as well. He reduced Napoli's deal from 3 to 1 year with incentives that will end up paying about $12-13M this year.

    Here's how these 1Bmen have faired this year out of 46 1Bmen with 210+ PAs:

    WAR

    7) Napoli

    9) AGon

    10) Loney

    18) Carp (but WAR per game played would jolt him near the top)

    32) Overbay (the guy softy wanted)

     

    OPS

    2) .938  Carp

    9) .836 Napoli

    15) .802 AGon

    17) .793 Loney

    35) .720 Overbay

     

    I'm not trying to say the other guys on this list are better than AGon, but at the time of the trade, I countered all thos posters lamenting the loss of AGon with the fact that 1Bmen are basically "a dime a dozen", and that the loss of AGon's salary could basically allow us to sign other players that would more than make up for the drop-off at 1B.

    As it turned out, any choice other than Overbay has turned out to be a minimal drop off, if any, on offense at 1B. Napoli has also made some nifty defensive plays this year. He's no AGon on defense, but he is better than advertised. Not having to play catcher has allowed Naps to break his season high in PAs and RBIs this year. Nice job, Ben!

    The Carp deal was a steal. Even if he turns out to be no more than a quality platoon/PH guy, it was a great deal by Ben.

     

    Sox4ever

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    Here's an interesting angle.

    Ben got Loeny included in the AGon deal, who turned out to be a pretty fine player this year. He got Carp for very cheap, and had Overbay in camp as well. He reduced Napoli's deal from 3 to 1 year with incentives that will end up paying about $12-13M this year.

    Here's how these 1Bmen have faired this year out of 46 1Bmen with 210+ PAs:

    WAR

    7) Napoli

    9) AGon

    10) Loney

    18) Carp (but WAR per game played would jolt him near the top)

    32) Overbay (the guy softy wanted)

     

    OPS

    2) .938  Carp

    9) .836 Napoli

    15) .802 AGon

    17) .793 Loney

    35) .720 Overbay

     

    I'm not trying to say the other guys on this list are better than AGon, but at the time of the trade, I countered all thos posters lamenting the loss of AGon with the fact that 1Bmen are basically "a dime a dozen", and that the loss of AGon's salary could basically allow us to sign other players that would more than make up for the drop-off at 1B.

    As it turned out, any choice other than Overbay has turned out to be a minimal drop off, if any, on offense at 1B. Napoli has also made some nifty defensive plays this year. He's no AGon on defense, but he is better than advertised. Not having to play catcher has allowed Naps to break his season high in PAs and RBIs this year. Nice job, Ben!

    The Carp deal was a steal. Even if he turns out to be no more than a quality platoon/PH guy, it was a great deal by Ben.

     

    Sox4ever



    Napoli has a Plus 10 DRS this year. Who would have thought that? A 12.1 UZR/150. The guy can field his position. He's a potential gold glove candidate this year although it is so unimaginable for most of us he will never get it. The numbers indicate that he is a top defender at 1st though.

    I'm not seeing him miss many throws to 1st and he seems to have decent range. He is an underappreciated 1st baseman overall this year. Not saying I'm satisfied with him but he has been a top 5 type 1st baseman and a significant part of our success this year. Another extremely astute signing by Cherington. You could make a case that he is better than Fielder this year ( who has not been that much better offensively but has a -12 DRS ). 

    Detroit needed Iglesias SO BAD. I still think it will be Detroit and us in the playoffs before we are done.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Not long ago believed it would be Detroit and LA in the world series and it still might be, but Sox look now to have as good if not better chance of getting there as have the Tigers.  Just hope we're not peaking too early!

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    Here's an interesting angle.

    Ben got Loeny included in the AGon deal, who turned out to be a pretty fine player this year. He got Carp for very cheap, and had Overbay in camp as well. He reduced Napoli's deal from 3 to 1 year with incentives that will end up paying about $12-13M this year.

    Here's how these 1Bmen have faired this year out of 46 1Bmen with 210+ PAs:

    WAR

    7) Napoli

    9) AGon

    10) Loney

    18) Carp (but WAR per game played would jolt him near the top)

    32) Overbay (the guy softy wanted)

     

    OPS

    2) .938  Carp

    9) .836 Napoli

    15) .802 AGon

    17) .793 Loney

    35) .720 Overbay

     

    I'm not trying to say the other guys on this list are better than AGon, but at the time of the trade, I countered all thos posters lamenting the loss of AGon with the fact that 1Bmen are basically "a dime a dozen", and that the loss of AGon's salary could basically allow us to sign other players that would more than make up for the drop-off at 1B.

    As it turned out, any choice other than Overbay has turned out to be a minimal drop off, if any, on offense at 1B. Napoli has also made some nifty defensive plays this year. He's no AGon on defense, but he is better than advertised. Not having to play catcher has allowed Naps to break his season high in PAs and RBIs this year. Nice job, Ben!

    The Carp deal was a steal. Even if he turns out to be no more than a quality platoon/PH guy, it was a great deal by Ben.

     

    Sox4ever

     



    Napoli has a Plus 10 DRS this year. Who would have thought that? A 12.1 UZR/150. The guy can field his position. He's a potential gold glove candidate this year although it is so unimaginable for most of us he will never get it. The numbers indicate that he is a top defender at 1st though.

     

    I'm not seeing him miss many throws to 1st and he seems to have decent range. He is an underappreciated 1st baseman overall this year. Not saying I'm satisfied with him but he has been a top 5 type 1st baseman and a significant part of our success this year. Another extremely astute signing by Cherington. You could make a case that he is better than Fielder this year ( who has not been that much better offensively but has a -12 DRS ). 

    Detroit needed Iglesias SO BAD. I still think it will be Detroit and us in the playoffs before we are done.

    [/QUOTE]

    Detroit still has the best starting 4 in MLB, but getting Peavy helped us gain ground. With our balanced offensive attack, I think we may end up being the favorite to win the AL, especially if we end up with homefield advantage.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Of the 9 Sox players with over 20 PAs the last 12 games, 7 have an OPS over .798. Four are over .944 (Naps, Nava, Middy & Papi).

     

    We have 11 guys with 10+ PAs and an OPS over .800 (12 over .798).

     

    In the last 28 days, we have 8 guys over .788 and 25+ PAs.

    Sox4ever

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Home field is huge this year. We don't want to have to face Oakland away for most of those games. I think we are consciously trying to finish with home field advantage, even at the expense of some PT for the rookies.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Home field is huge this year. We don't want to have to face Oakland away for most of those games. I think we are consciously trying to finish with home field advantage, even at the expense of some PT for the rookies.



    I think after 2011, nothing is taken for granted.

    Once we clinch the non WC playoffs, we'll see how much they care about homefield vs resting the vets and setting up the rotation for the right sequence and 4 well-rested starters.

    It's a tough call which is worth more. We may try and play it both ways, but if the Tigers get hot, it might not be possible.

    If the season ended as the standing are now, would it go like this?

    1) Boston

    vs WC Winner (TBR vs TEX)

     

    2) Detroit

    3) Oakland

     

    If so, I'd rather face , Oakland with our homefield advantage, than TB or TEX, however, once beyond the first round, we'd lose hoemfield to Detroit.

     

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    I'd actually rather face the Rays or Texas!

    Oakland seems to have our number and it's been that way for a while

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I'd actually rather face the Rays or Texas!

    Oakland seems to have our number and it's been that way for a while



    Tampa has had our number in recent years as have the A's & Rangers.

    Texas has for at least 4 straight years.

                  2013  2012  2011  2010

    vs OAK    3-3     1-8    6-2    4-5

    vs TBR  12-7     9-9   6-12   7-11

    vs TEX   2-4      2-6   4-6     4-6

    vs DET  3-4      5-5    5-1     3-3

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Big game by Salty.

    He's got his OBP back up over .333.

    His OPS is approaching .800 again.

     

    Nava is really an on base machine. 

    He's up to .390 now- just .007 behind Papi.

     

    Here's the updated team OPS leaders:

    1.444 Berry

    .962  Ortiz

    .927  Carp

    .835  Nava

    .829  Napoli

    .801  Victorino

    .793  Lavarnway

    .788  Saltalamacchia

    .785  Iglesias

    .780  Pedroia

    .779  Ellsbury

    .767  Drew

    .765  Bogaerts

    .748  Gomes

    .720  Middlebrooks

    .672  Ross

    .617  Snyder

    .552  Bradley

    .512  Holt

    .327  McDonald

     

    Sox4ever

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    If Buchholz is for real we have to be considered front runners right now. Lots of these teams are flawed, particularly among the wild card teams. We have a great shot this year. But as always breaks have to fall our way and we need some hot pitchers going into the playoffs.

    If Buchholz can be dominant and we take it to Breslow and Koji in game one with a win, I like our chances a lot. The longer the series goes the better I like our chances. We have more depth at the 3rd and 4th starter slots IMO than most teams. And we have better hitting than just about any team. Detroit again is potentially best positioned to beat us IMO.

    And no doubt the Rangers have been good but I think they will miss Cruz and their pitching is not insurmountable. Oakland can get hot with a couple pitchers shutting us down so I'm concerned there. Anything can happen of course with any team.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    If Buchholz is for real we have to be considered front runners right now. Lots of these teams are flawed, particularly among the wild card teams. We have a great shot this year. But as always breaks have to fall our way and we need some hot pitchers going into the playoffs.

    If Buchholz can be dominant and we take it to Breslow and Koji in game one with a win, I like our chances a lot. The longer the series goes the better I like our chances. We have more depth at the 3rd and 4th starter slots IMO than most teams. And we have better hitting than just about any team. Detroit again is potentially best positioned to beat us IMO.

    And no doubt the Rangers have been good but I think they will miss Cruz and their pitching is not insurmountable. Oakland can get hot with a couple pitchers shutting us down so I'm concerned there. Anything can happen of course with any team.



    I see Oakland's starters as the worst of all AL playoff teams. As long as we have home field against them, they are the least of my worries. I'm not saying they aren't tough, but I fear Tampa's 2 lefty starters (Price & Moore) and Archer/Cobb are no pushovers either.

    Texas always plays us tough.

    Detroit has the best 4 starters in MLB, so they will always be my biggest worry.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Looks like Softy has returned, as 'Red Sox Fireman'.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    Salti has been huge this past week. He had a nice stretch of throwing out base stealers, the grand slam last night. I know much of the talk is about re-signing Ells, but... Think I'd rather lockup Salty for the next 3-4 yrs as a first priority. It's been a long road for him but it's looking like, dare I say it, Theo was right about Salty. 

    "Don't you worry about blank, let me worry about blank"

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    As great as Salty has been this year, if I were him and he gets a QO, I'm probably taking the $14 mil. Everyone is saying he will get a QO. If we do though I bet he signs and will be back.

    I hope they make a run at Abreu but a smarter choice might just be to offer Napoli a QO and take him back if no one signs him. I would absolutely love getting 3 picks this winter from Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli. It is beyond dreaming for us to get a 4th from Salty. 

    If we slot JBJ and Bogaerts into the lineup that replaces 2. Lavarnway is a good replacement at catcher to me at least. And rolling the dice with Abreu could reap huge dividends without costing us a pick. Imagine 4 picks and a potential mega bopper at 1st with tons of payroll flexibility also:

    Drew - $9.5 mil

    Ellsbury - $9 mil

    Hanrahan - $7 mil

    Napoli - $13 mil

    Salty - $4.5 mil

    Thornton - $6 mil

     

    Total savings: $49 mil

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    And our entire starting pitching staff is under contract through next year. We have plenty of cash to fill whatever slots they want, if the FA talent is out there.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    As great as Salty has been this year, if I were him and he gets a QO, I'm probably taking the $14 mil. Everyone is saying he will get a QO. If we do though I bet he signs and will be back.

    I hope they make a run at Abreu but a smarter choice might just be to offer Napoli a QO and take him back if no one signs him. I would absolutely love getting 3 picks this winter from Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli. It is beyond dreaming for us to get a 4th from Salty. 

    If we slot JBJ and Bogaerts into the lineup that replaces 2. Lavarnway is a good replacement at catcher to me at least. And rolling the dice with Abreu could reap huge dividends without costing us a pick. Imagine 4 picks and a potential mega bopper at 1st with tons of payroll flexibility also:

    Drew - $9.5 mil

    Ellsbury - $9 mil

    Hanrahan - $7 mil

    Napoli - $13 mil

    Salty - $4.5 mil

    Thornton - $6 mil

     

    Total savings: $49 mil



    i would rather have Ells and Salty than the 2 comp picks..... comp picks are the consolation prize in regards to that duo IMO

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III


    Guys, the more I see JBJ play, the more concerned I feel about the future of CF.

    The guy just seem uncomfortable at the plate, and although he's made some real nice plays in center, he's also shown some weakness on breaking on the balls etc.  Granted, he's real young and maybe a little nervous etc., but I feel that X-man, although younger, seems more talented and mature at his position.

    So, it will be VERY interesting to see what eventually happens with Ellsbury.  Initially, I didn't think he'd re-sign with us in a million years.  Yet, with team chemisty the way it is and the way circumstances involved with Pedey's signing went, I suppose it isn't beyond belief that Pedey is trying to convince him to stay.  To be honest, he seems more durable this year and even playing through injuries that, in the past, would have kept him from playing.  Yes, maybe because it's a contract year, yet possibly the whole attitude change on the club is having a very positive influence on everyone.

    In essence, I think that if Ellsbury goes, even though we currently have coverage, the team would be substantially weakened.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    As great as Salty has been this year, if I were him and he gets a QO, I'm probably taking the $14 mil. Everyone is saying he will get a QO. If we do though I bet he signs and will be back.

    I hope they make a run at Abreu but a smarter choice might just be to offer Napoli a QO and take him back if no one signs him. I would absolutely love getting 3 picks this winter from Ellsbury, Drew and Napoli. It is beyond dreaming for us to get a 4th from Salty. 

    If we slot JBJ and Bogaerts into the lineup that replaces 2. Lavarnway is a good replacement at catcher to me at least. And rolling the dice with Abreu could reap huge dividends without costing us a pick. Imagine 4 picks and a potential mega bopper at 1st with tons of payroll flexibility also:

    Drew - $9.5 mil

    Ellsbury - $9 mil

    Hanrahan - $7 mil

    Napoli - $13 mil

    Salty - $4.5 mil

    Thornton - $6 mil

     

    Total savings: $49 mil



    I don't think "everyone" is saying Salty will get a QO.

    Also, it is not really $49M to spend. After all the arb signings and the Lester option, I have us at about $30M to spend and stay under the limit.

    We could let Bailey go and trade Dempster to free up more room.

     

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