Re: A Realistic View at 2013: Part III
posted at 9/12/2013 4:06 AM EDT
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to maxbialystock's comment:
Love the salary numbers--thanks, moonslav.
I think the front office will be driven by a desire to keep as much of this team as possible without driving up the overall salaries too much. They will certainly want to avoid paying luxury tax.
Keeping everyone is obviously jeopardized by all those guys becoming free agents, especially Ellsbury, Napoli, Drew, and Salty. I am a huge Ellsbury fan, but think he is the least likely to be retained because of his WAR and ability to command $100M or more in salary. It helps that Bradley had a AAA OPS over .850 this year and plays a good CF. Just guessing, but I think the Sox keep Drew and and Salty and play Bogaerts at 3B and Middlebrooks at 1B next year. So I think Napoli goes elsewhere even though right now he is having a heckuva September and overall a pretty good year, plus he handles 1B well. I also see Gomes, Nava, Ross, etc returning. Salty stays because right now I think he is the best defensive and offensive catcher on the team.
If Buchholz can just stay healthy, he is a bonafide ace with three very capable guys after him in Lester, Peavy, and Lackey. Plus Doubront might just get into shape for a whole season next year. So the rotation looks good with or without Dempster. And the bullpen should be OK too. I see no big investments in pitching and maybe even use one or more for trades.
The undeniable but hard to measure factor about this team is the chemistry. If Ellsbury and Napoli leave, does that affect the chemistry adversely?
So, basically this is your idea...
1B Middlebrooks/Carp (Papi @ NL)
It's just about the same team as now, but minus Naps and Ells and plus JBJ and Boggy FT.
I seriously doubt we let Ellsbury and Napoli go without getting anyone new to replace one. I'm not saying this isn't a very promising team: it is, but I doubt Ben hands over 3 slots to young players (Middy, Boggy, JBJ) and expanded roles by Carp and others.
I would try to keep Napoli or sign K Morales if we can't keep Napoli.
One big trade for the right-handed bat...
1B Napoli or Morales/Carp
5) Napoli or Morales
As you pointed out in another thead, Moon, package Lackey (or Doubront in my opinion because he is younger) plus Workman and 2-3 others for Stanton.
Stanton = Lackey (plus some cash) + Workman + Lava (Miami's catching is lacking this year) + 1-2 solid prospects
I would rather keep Napoli and Gomes if possible. Together with Pedroia and Papi, these four are great for team chemistry. Carp is a great pinch-hitter and I think that spelling Napoli every 4th or 5th game probably would make sense to keep him fresh. Would need Nava and JBJ as I doubt that Victorino and Stanton would play full seasons.
Ellsbury is a great player, and nothing against him, but I think he will find greener pastures for longer years than the RS are willing to go. Stanton will be expensive in players but RS will have a pretty strong farm for one big move like this. Obviously, Stanton is inexpensive compared to Ells.