A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Not saying it's going to happen but this is what I would do:

    Rather than speculate on trades which may or may not be realistic, and factoring the real salary limitations the team has ( They are not going over the luxury tax limit this year guys ), I think we really need to think about getting the most value from our off season spend. What results in the most wins?

    Given: $30 mil in available resources roughly against the luxury tax limit

    Option A: Make a $52 mil bid for negotiating rights to Tanaka. If he accepts keep it under $60 mil for at most for 5-6 years. If it's really the top 3 bids having an equal shot at Tanaka make it a $42 mil negotiating bid.

    I go with this first to see if it works. The guy was 17 - 0 last year if I remember correctly with an ungodly low ERA and he's 25. He sure appears to be decent from the numbers and since no one has seen him in mlb he probably at least starts well in mlb and we are in win now mode. He appears to be Koji or Kuroda with better stuff! And a starter. Teams pay a fortune for talent like that and he needs to be target A on this team. It's like acquiring the rights to the next Felix Hernandez potentially. You know what, he might just be incredibly good and in his prime. He costs no picks and much of the money doesn't count against the luxury tax limit, no small consideration. Of course he is Option A. Sometimes you just have to roll the dice if you want to win. It may fail but the potential upside is so great that it is worth this risk.

    If that falls through and we lose out on that opportunity go to:

    Option B; Make Kuroda think seriously about joining a World Championship team with Koji and Junichi by offering him $20 mil to join the Sox. We may not get him either but if the Yanks do at least they will have to pay big bucks for him. The Yanks only paid $15 mil last year. Why wouldn't Kuroda consider $20 mil this year, to join a championship level team? My bet is that he wants that kind of cash still. And he joins a world championship team with international success and popular Japanese players already. It's not crazy to think that $20 mil might get that done. And he is possibly one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Consistently great numbers for the last 4 years in a row in the AL east, in a park not suited for his game. If anything, he should be even better in Fenway. I recognize he is 39 but he has been consistently solid every year.

    If either of these two options take place, and preferably Tanaka's since it's $10 mil less against the luxury tax limit, we trade Peavy who actually costs more than Tanaka against the luxury limit probably. Even Kuroda would essentially only cost us $4-$5 mil or so against the $30 mil we have to spend to keep us under the luxury tax limit. We want those revenue sharing dollars badly. It's important that we stay under the luxury tax limit and we probably even get some talent back in the Peavy trade. 

    Hopefully Napoli declines soon and we pass on his option but use that money for a 2 year deal with Beltran. He's better Papi protection than Napoli by a significant margin. Much better numbers. Helps bolster our OF with the loss of Ellsbury. Make him our primary LF option. Move Nava to 1st, with Carp and Ortiz as backup. I think that is fine at 1st. We can probably sign Youk as deep backup for 3rd and 1st for $3-$5 mil.

    Sign Rajai Davis as our 5th OF. So the OF would be Beltran, JBJ, Victorino with RH subs of Davis and Gomes. I think Davis costs $5 mil per year but he is the best available pinch runner we can get for late inning opportunities when we need a stolen base. That alone gets us 2-3 wins a year and he's a decent hitting sub also. I think this keeps us under the luxury tax limit and maximizes our team's opportunity for success.

    Rotation:

    Lester
    Lackey
    Kuroda/Tanaka ( adding no more than $4-5 mil against the luxury tax limit if we sign Kuroda and trade Peavy. We gain money against the luxury tax limit if we sign Tanaka )
    Doubront
    Buchholz

    Possibly the best rotation in baseball.

    Lineup:

    Victorino
    Pedroia
    Ortiz
    Beltran/Gomes ($14 mil per year for Beltran, less per year if 3 year deal )
    Bogaerts
    Nava/Carp/Youk ($3 - $5 mil per year as backup)
    Middlebrooks/Youk
    Ross/Lavarnway/Ruiz (If we can do Tanaka and trade Peavy, we then can sign a catcher like Ruiz for up to $8 mil per year and still have $3-$5 mil left over for contingencies )
    JBJ/Rajai Davis ( $5 mil )

    [/QUOTE]

    Every year since I have been a Sox fan, I have advocated a winter upgrade to one of the top 3 slots of our pitching rotation. This year, we have much higher need areas. With 6 veteran starters and several young arms knocking on the door, I don't see this as the way to go.

    In your opening paragraph, you state "Rather than speculate on trades which may or may not be realistic, and factoring the real salary limitations the team has ( They are not going over the luxury tax limit this year guys ), I think we really need to think about getting the most value from our off season spend. What results in the most wins?   " But, your whole plan hinges on trading Peavy.

    I'm not saying your plan is a bad one, in fact I kind of like the philosophy behind it, as trading good pitching should net excellent returns from desperate trade partners. But, you plan can never work unless we trade Peavy or Dempster or both.

    The biggest weakness to your plan, in my opinion, is the 4 positions are being handed to rookies, young players, or clear downgrades from what we had in 2012 (assuming no Ruiz):

    CF: Ellsbury to JBJ/Davis

    C: Salty/Ross/Lava to Ross/Lava/Butler

    1B: Napoli to Nava/Carp/Youk

    SS: Drew to Bogey

    (Also, 3B goes from Middy, Iggy, Snyder, Holt, Bogey to Middy/Youk)

    We also become a worse fielding team at SS, 1B and C.

     

    The pluses:

    LF: from Nava/Gomes to Beltran

    To me, the Nava/Gomes platoon represented one of our best offensive positions on the team in 2013, and that was the one slot on offense, you chose to clearly upgrade (on paper).

    SP: The upgrade is not assuerd with either Tanaka or Kuroda, but on paper, I will concede that both are clearly better than Dempster and almost clearly better than Peavy.

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I keep hearing $100 mil for McCann but I'm not buying it. Probably under $90 mil if he's lucky and I think closer to $80 mil. The Yanks want him I would think but this year they want to stay under the luxury tax limit and they have lots of other needs. I think lower cost catchers get snapped up and McCann takes less of a deal. If the Yanks aren't able to drive the market and the Dodgers are a little restrained, it helps keep costs down a lot. Even the Redsox only have $30 mil to spend with lots of needs also.

    With the influx of new television revenues, we should brace ourselves for some sticker shock in free agent contracts this offseason. The early deals for Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence are evidence of what to expect. I would not project salaries this offseason on contracts from previous years.

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree. This years FA's are chomping at the bit to get to FA this year. Each team has signifigantly more $$ to spend. Word is by some insiders is the Tanaka bidding could easily pass the 75M mark for negotiating rights.

    Guys are going to get paid this year.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I say we get that 4m a year over the next 3 years back (and more) by trading Dempster for Ethier.

    Ethier and 4m for Dempster in '14 is a salary wash. Ethier and 4m a year for the 3 years after that gives us the guy at the same 3/39 we just paid for Victorino ages 32-34 for Ethier age 33-35 years. Ethier is the slightly better player and far healthier player. Shane's 3 years before his 2012 disaster, ages 28-30, he was a .280/.345/.800 guy with 15 HR's a year.

    Ethier last 3 years ages 29-31 was a .285/.360/.800 guy who was VERY durable, avg 510 AB's a year, was a 15 HR/30 2B guy in a pitchers park and is versatile enough to play all 3 OF spots like Victorino. He is also one of Dusty's best friends from ASU.

    If ages 32-35 he drops down to a .270/.345/.785 guy, who keeps the same power #'s b/c of Fenway, I am fine with that in our 7-8 hole as LA picks up some of the tab.

    Trading for Ethier does allow for Victorino to stay in RF and probably means JBJ gets traded, but what concerns me most about him is the splits:

    vs RHPs: .309/.388/.518/.906  Excellent numbers!

    vs LHPs: .235/.294/.351/.644 Not worthy of starting on the Sox in 2014!

    His away splits are a bit concerning as well: .276/.354/.435/.789

     

    Just like I said with Crawford, Ethier appears to be a "glorified platoon player".

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I just don't get the McMann talk when we've got someone who does the same thing and already has a comfort level with the pitchers.  Furthermore it sounds like we have catchers about two years away.  If we don't land Salty, then pick up a serviceable catcher who teams with Ross.  McCann controls the run game better, but Salty's his equal elsewhere.

    [/QUOTE]

    McCann has just a marginally better CS%. Yes, better, but not by much.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    I keep hearing $100 mil for McCann but I'm not buying it. Probably under $90 mil if he's lucky and I think closer to $80 mil. The Yanks want him I would think but this year they want to stay under the luxury tax limit and they have lots of other needs. I think lower cost catchers get snapped up and McCann takes less of a deal. If the Yanks aren't able to drive the market and the Dodgers are a little restrained, it helps keep costs down a lot. Even the Redsox only have $30 mil to spend with lots of needs also.

    With the influx of new television revenues, we should brace ourselves for some sticker shock in free agent contracts this offseason. The early deals for Tim Lincecum and Hunter Pence are evidence of what to expect. I would not project salaries this offseason on contracts from previous years.

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree. This years FA's are chomping at the bit to get to FA this year. Each team has signifigantly more $$ to spend. Word is by some insiders is the Tanaka bidding could easily pass the 75M mark for negotiating rights.

    Guys are going to get paid this year.

    [/QUOTE]

    There are a lot of teams that have more than $32M to spend and stay under the limit.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Trading for Ethier does allow for Victorino to stay in RF and probably means JBJ gets traded, but what concerns me most about him is the splits:

    vs RHPs: .309/.388/.518/.906  Excellent numbers!

    vs LHPs: .235/.294/.351/.644 Not worthy of starting on the Sox in 2014!

    His away splits are a bit concerning as well: .276/.354/.435/.789

    Just like I said with Crawford, Ethier appears to be a "glorified platoon player".

    [/QUOTE]

    Choo is also a glorified platoon player - 932/680.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I know Ben has said he is not planning on trading away a SP, but with the budget constraints we have this winter and 4-5 big holes to fill, I can't see how we get around not doing so.

    If we can unload Dempster by paying just $3M of his deal, we'd be adding $10M to our winter spending budget, giving us about $42M to spend. That's about 3 guys at $14M.

    We could go:

    Beltran $16M x 2

    Napoli  $14M x 3

    Drew   $12M x 3

    or

    Ellsbury $18M x 5

    Napoli $14M x 3

    or

    Napoli $14M x 3

    Drew  $12M x 3

    Salty  $9M x 3

    Mujica $7M x 3

    or 

    Napoli  $14 x 3

    Drew   $12m x 3

    Mujica  $7M x 3

    R Davis $5M x 2

    Suzuki  $4M x 2

     

    The combinations are near limitless.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to LagunaJose's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The posting fee for Tanaka doesn't count towards the revenue sharing amount so it is my guess that the Yankees will open up their safe finally and go after him.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think you're right.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Trading for Ethier does allow for Victorino to stay in RF and probably means JBJ gets traded, but what concerns me most about him is the splits:

    vs RHPs: .309/.388/.518/.906  Excellent numbers!

    vs LHPs: .235/.294/.351/.644 Not worthy of starting on the Sox in 2014!

    His away splits are a bit concerning as well: .276/.354/.435/.789

    Just like I said with Crawford, Ethier appears to be a "glorified platoon player".

    [/QUOTE]

    Choo is also a glorified platoon player - 932/680.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed, but there is one major distinction beyond the 35 point better OPS vs LHPs:

    If Choo leads off for us, he still has a .340 OBP vs LHPs compared to .294 for Either, but if we plan on putting Ethier up 5th or 6th, he does have a slightly better SLG vs LHPs .351 to .341.

    Ethier in CF allows Victorino to stay in RF. That's a plus.

    My guess is, we go with JBJ in CF and acquire a capable back-up CF'er (R Davis?).

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from rameakap. Show rameakap's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I say we get that 4m a year over the next 3 years back (and more) by trading Dempster for Ethier.

    Ethier and 4m for Dempster in '14 is a salary wash. Ethier and 4m a year for the 3 years after that gives us the guy at the same 3/39 we just paid for Victorino ages 32-34 for Ethier age 33-35 years. Ethier is the slightly better player and far healthier player. Shane's 3 years before his 2012 disaster, ages 28-30, he was a .280/.345/.800 guy with 15 HR's a year.

    Ethier last 3 years ages 29-31 was a .285/.360/.800 guy who was VERY durable, avg 510 AB's a year, was a 15 HR/30 2B guy in a pitchers park and is versatile enough to play all 3 OF spots like Victorino. He is also one of Dusty's best friends from ASU.

    If ages 32-35 he drops down to a .270/.345/.785 guy, who keeps the same power #'s b/c of Fenway, I am fine with that in our 7-8 hole as LA picks up some of the tab.

    Trading for Ethier does allow for Victorino to stay in RF and probably means JBJ gets traded, but what concerns me most about him is the splits:

    vs RHPs: .309/.388/.518/.906  Excellent numbers!

    vs LHPs: .235/.294/.351/.644 Not worthy of starting on the Sox in 2014!

    His away splits are a bit concerning as well: .276/.354/.435/.789

    Just like I said with Crawford, Ethier appears to be a "glorified platoon player".

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Well Nava and Drew are worse vs. lefties than that. Since Gomes and Shane CRUSH them:

    Gomes (.277/.387/.881)  Victorino (.316/.391/.916)

    I guess you have one black hole there who plays well. Shane is the 2 hitter vs. lefties and 8-9 hitter vs. righties and Ethier the opposite. or we promote JBJ and trade Nava. Have an Ethier/Gomes platoon in LF with JBJ not exactly handed the job full-time.

    Still rather have Ethier and his abiliity to play CF for about 40 million over the next 4 years over Dempster (13m) and paying someone like Beltran 35 million for 2 years, forcing Shane and JBJ into CF, weakening corner OF spots on D AND making us unable to afford Napoli and Salty or McCann.


    This lineup in 2014 would make me VERY happy:

    2B - Pedroia

    * begrudgingly takes leadoff spot, agrees to post .400 OBP's for remainder of extension;-)

    CF - Ethier

    * loves leaving a pitcher's park for a hitter's one, Pedy is a close friend from ASU. hits 9th vs. lefties and Shane plays here.

    3B - Middlebrooks

    * Put the potential 30 HR guy whose weakness is chasing bad pitches in front of the teams best power hitter in order to get him lots of strike zone pitches

    DH - Ortiz

    * 'Pop' is still there

    1B - Napoli

    * A 2 year deal guarantee of the 26m he would have made, + up to 4m in incentives per year and THEN a player option for 2 more years at around 13m a year (if health incentives reached in '14/'15) to 1B/DH when Papi reties

    C - McCann

    * Pay a lot upfront for a guy who will be an elite catcher the next 2-3 years, then less on the backend as he moves to DH duties after Papi leaves and mentors the young (cheap) catchers/pitchers we will have coming up like his buddy Ross did

    SS - Xander

    * Rookie of the year? .285/.385 with 20 HR's?

    LF - Nava/Gomes

    * platoon worked out pretty well for us this year. Ethier moves here in '15 when JBJ takes over CF

    RF - Victorino

    * Not asking him to replace Ells in CF or in setting the table with a high OBP (never his thing) is very wise and will make for another successful .285/.345 15 HR season. Hits 2nd vs. lefties.

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

     


    This lineup in 2014 would make me VERY happy:

    2B - Pedroia

    * begrudgingly takes leadoff spot, agrees to post .400 OBP's for remainder of extension;-)

    I'd put Victorino up 1st vs LHPs and maybe Nava vs RHPs.

     

     

    CF - Ethier

    * loves leaving a pitcher's park for a hitter's one, Pedy is a close friend from ASU. hits 9th vs. lefties and Shane plays here.

    Ethier has hit much better in LA than away, so I'm not sure this will be a boost.

     

    3B - Middlebrooks

    * Put the potential 30 HR guy whose weakness is chasing bad pitches in front of the teams best power hitter in order to get him lots of strike zone pitches

    I'm still not sold on Middy yet. He was benched twice in 2013.

     

    DH - Ortiz

    * 'Pop' is still there

    To think of what we are going to do when he retires is frightening.

     

     

    1B - Napoli

    * A 2 year deal guarantee of the 26m he would have made, + up to 4m in incentives per year and THEN a player option for 2 more years at around 13m a year (if health incentives reached in '14/'15) to 1B/DH when Papi reties

    That's about what I suggested.

     

    C - McCann

    * Pay a lot upfront for a guy who will be an elite catcher the next 2-3 years, then less on the backend as he moves to DH duties after Papi leaves and mentors the young (cheap) catchers/pitchers we will have coming up like his buddy Ross did

    There's no way I want to spend big and long on this guy. He is not worth it. I'd rather just keep Ellsbury. Plus, we have 3 young catchers coming up quickly.

     

    SS - Xander

    * Rookie of the year? .285/.385 with 20 HR's?

    He represents our biggest hope for a gain from 2013 without spending big or trading away players to gain at another position.

     

    LF - Nava/Gomes

    * platoon worked out pretty well for us this year. Ethier moves here in '15 when JBJ takes over CF

    I wouldn't give up on Nava so easily.

     

     

    RF - Victorino

    * Not asking him to replace Ells in CF or in setting the table with a high OBP (never his thing) is very wise and will make for another successful .285/.345 15 HR season. Hits 2nd vs. lefties.

    Shane has a .373 OBP career vs LHPs. That's way better than Jacoby's vs LHPs or overall OBP.

    I agree, his .330 OBP vs RHPs is not good enought o bat 1st or 2nd on a team like the Sox.

    Pedey bats best in the 4 slot, then 2 slot, then 3 slot then leadoff is last.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, this is what I think at this time and reserve right to change as events change the scene.  I've said before I want to go after our own free agents within reason.  If Ells would sign for 90 mil, good.  If more, then move on.  I don't think Ells will be here.  The other three, I'd offer the figures I've seen here.  Personally, I think we need Drew and Naps more than Salty--no disrespect to him.  He's really improved but I think we need that defense up the middle and I don't know where we get power without Naps.  I would be happy getting those three back.

    Whomever we might not get, replace in house or with a steady low cost option.

    The one extravagance I want is Stanton and I don't really care if we have to go a liittle steep.  Farm guys are not yet proven guys, we have a lot of depth right now, and this guy brings a lot: Why not use strength to get what we need, power not coming through first base, youth and skill, good attitude, and an outfielder we need?

    Moon, have you yet formulated your off season druthers?  Sounds to me like you don't think we need pitching or high priced free agents...I guess we're all waiting to see how we do with our free agents...

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, have you yet formulated your off season druthers?  Sounds to me like you don't think we need pitching or high priced free agents...I guess we're all waiting to see how we do with our free agents...

     

    I'd love to see us add 3 draft picks, not have to sign any QO free agenst and still end up with a team in the running for a 2014 ring. That is not going to be easy, and I realize we probably will have to sign 1 QO free agent, or keep 1 or 2 of our own guys and lose the draft picks we could have gained by letting them walk.

    Going off the $32M number to spend and stay below the luxury limit, which I am assuming we will do, I will outline my winter suggestions of which I reserve the right to adjust as more and more information becomes avaialble.

    1) Restructure Lackey's deal to $8.5M x 2. He makes $1M more spread over 2 seasons, and we save about $8M on the luxury budget. (Now at $40M to spend.)

    2) I'd look to trade Peavy ($14.5M) and Middlebrooks for Andre Ethier ($17M through 2017) plus have LA negate the $3.9M for 2014 and 2015 we owe them. Net luxury budget cost about zero. (Still at about $40M to spend). I'm not a big Ethier fan due to his poor splits vs LHPs (.644) and on the road (.789), but he would help keep Victorino in RF where he belongs and allow JBJ more time to grow or be traded.

    3) Sign Salty to $24M/2 or maybe $30M/3 or $33M/3, but I'd try to avoid 4 years, since we have so many young and promising catching prospects. This may not be enough, but let's assume he takes $24M/2. That leaves us with $28M to spend.

    4) Sign Napoli to $28M/2 with PA incentive that could bring him to $30M/2. 3rd year club option at $13M with $2M in PAs incentives and a $2M buyout. Essentaially, it is a $30M/2 deal or $41M/3 deal with incentives that could make it $32M/2 or up to 45M/3.  This leaves us with $13-14M to spend.

    5) I'm not a huge Drew fan, but I really want Bogey at 3B next year and going forward. I've already traded away Middy, so we need a SS. We could sign drew for $36M/3 or $46M/4 and still be under the limit. I would not be against this idea, but I'd rather do this: Sign Brendan Ryan or Clint Barnes for $3-4M/1 of $7M/2. That leaves us about $10M to spend.

    6) Sign Mujica to $14M/3 or $20M/3.  This leaves us about a $2-4M buffer to cover incentives or to pick up someone at the deadline.

    2014 Red Sox

    Line-up:

            vs RHPs     vs LHPs

    1)  Nava  LF       Victorino RF

    2)         Pedroia  2B

    3)          Ortiz  DH

    4) Ethier CF       Napoli 1B

    5) Napoli 1B      Gomes LF

    6) Salty  C         Ethier CF

    7) Vict  RF         Bogey 3B

    8) Bogey            Ross C  

    9)           B Ryan

    Bench: Nava or Gomes, Salty or Ross, Carp  and Holt

     

    On call in AAA: JBJ, Kalish, Lava, Cecchini, Castellanos, or others

    13 Pitchers:

    SP: Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Doubront, Dempster, Morales (LR)

    RP: Uehara, Breslow, Mujica, Tazawa, Miller, Workman

    On call in AAA: Britton, Villareal, Webster, Wilson and de la Rosa or others

     

    I think this team would be highly competitive.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We are trying to replace 4 solid players plus pay arbitration raises and improve our depth with $32 mil. Something has to give. To me that is mainly at catcher where I like to go cheap since the discrepancy between good and mediocre catchers is almost indiscernable sometimes ( kind of like with relievers, they seem to fluctuate in their performances ). I have no problem even if it's Lavarnway/Ross as I think they would be better overall than Salty/Ross. I mean for real. I have faith that Lavarnway would be better than Salty eventually.

    I think Nava/Carp/Ortiz can handle 1st base for us without much a drop off ( if any from Napoli ), and for a whole lot less money. 

    Look at Beltran's numbers and he probably is a 3 year deal at most. He's still only 36 years old and Fenway's left field plus some DH opportunities probably make Fenway a better fit for him than almost anywhere else. We can always play Papi some at first, letting Beltran DH once in a while. He's capable of performing in a big market and in bigtime pressure situations. The problem with Beltran is his defense but Fenway is the perfect place to hide him defensively. He probably doesn't even get $14 mil per year. I bet closer to a $40 mil, 3 year deal. I like a short term deal with him:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=589&position=OF

    Check out his hit chart. He should have no problem hitting it out in Fenway: 

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/carlos-beltran/hitchart/85146?q=carlos-beltran

    Notice he had 6 HR directly down the RF line. His bat speed is fine. And he fits Fenway fine. He can hit it out in RF and is strong enough to knock it over the wall in LF also.

    I don't think we need to spend money on relievers at all. We have several coming back from injury, for example Miller, who can help plus Workman and potentially more from Pawtucket. I think Bogaerts can absolutely replace Drew and if I have money to spend at all I'm placing it mainly in reasonable depth and better starting pitching, plus a significant bat to protect Papi. Rajai Davis gives us a lot in an important depth need in the OF, with a right handed bat plus tons of speed for various situations including pinch running late in the game.

    If Middlebrooks doesn't cut it we may have Cechinni after the July break but I think Middlebrooks will be much better next year. I think his injury impact was underestimated. I think he's an animal next year. At least league average at 3rd.

    This team should be good enough to get back into the playoffs. If we get there that great starting pitching of the below rotation helps us win it:

    Kuroda/Tanaka

    Lackey

    Lester

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    I think even if we trade Peavy just for a salary dump only I like this rotation anyway. Peavy costs $16 mil towards the cap. He needs to go. There are other trade opportunities as well. i would really like to have a Right/Left platoon at 1st for example. That probably would require a trade to handle. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Choo is also a glorified platoon player - 932/680.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    This is true. But so what? Isn't a glorified platoon player still what they are when everything is combined? If Choo is a 5 WAR player, its not a negative that he has extreme splits. Yes, he might actually cost you a game in the playoffs against a lefty, but he probably wins you two games on his own against righties.

    If you have a gutsy manager who is willing to sit a star player with extreme splits in the playoffs, the "glorified platoon player" has even more value then their total sum. A Choo-Gomes combined player might have 8 WAR between them if they were platooned. Choo getting you 6 WAR against righties and Gomes getting you 2 WAR against lefties.

    You can't platoon every position. And sitting a star making big money is a very difficult thing. But if you did, you get not a very good player or excellent player when combing extreme splits, you get the best player in the game not named after a fish.

    And if you don't platoon Choo and suffer through his at bats vs. lefties? You get a 5 WAR player. Which is excellent. So its not a bad thing and could be a very good fact.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We are trying to replace 4 solid players plus pay arbitration raises and improve our depth with $32 mil. Something has to give.

    The $32M numbers reflects estimated arb raises and a nontender to Bailey.

    To me that is mainly at catcher where I like to go cheap since the discrepancy between good and mediocre catchers is almost indiscernable sometimes ( kind of like with relievers, they seem to fluctuate in their performances ). I have no problem even if it's Lavarnway/Ross as I think they would be better overall than Salty/Ross. I mean for real. I have faith that Lavarnway would be better than Salty eventually.

    I totally disagree. A catcher makes a huge difference. Although Salty may not be a great defensive catcher or handler of the staff, I have to think our staff will take a beating if Lava catches 50-60% of the games.

     

    I think Nava/Carp/Ortiz can handle 1st base for us without much a drop off ( if any from Napoli ), and for a whole lot less money. 

    I think 1B represents the least projected downgrade. While Napoli was very good in 2013, I think that between Middy, Carp, Nava and Papi, we can put up some pretty good numbers in 2014.

     

    Look at Beltran's numbers and he probably is a 3 year deal at most. He's still only 36 years old and Fenway's left field plus some DH opportunities probably make Fenway a better fit for him than almost anywhere else. We can always play Papi some at first, letting Beltran DH once in a while. He's capable of performing in a big market and in bigtime pressure situations. The problem with Beltran is his defense but Fenway is the perfect place to hide him defensively. He probably doesn't even get $14 mil per year. I bet closer to a $40 mil, 3 year deal. I like a short term deal with him:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=589&position=OF

    Check out his hit chart. He should have no problem hitting it out in Fenway: 

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/carlos-beltran/hitchart/85146?q=carlos-beltran

    Notice he had 6 HR directly down the RF line. His bat speed is fine. And he fits Fenway fine. He can hit it out in RF and is strong enough to knock it over the wall in LF also.

    I like Beltran a lot, but I think his best spot is LF, and that is not even close to our weakest link.

     

    I don't think we need to spend money on relievers at all. We have several coming back from injury, for example Miller, who can help plus Workman and potentially more from Pawtucket. I think Bogaerts can absolutely replace Drew and if I have money to spend at all I'm placing it mainly in reasonable depth and better starting pitching, plus a significant bat to protect Papi. Rajai Davis gives us a lot in an important depth need in the OF, with a right handed bat plus tons of speed for various situations including pinch running late in the game.

    I like Rajai Davis too.

     

    If Middlebrooks doesn't cut it we may have Cechinni after the July break but I think Middlebrooks will be much better next year. I think his injury impact was underestimated. I think he's an animal next year. At least league average at 3rd.

    I hope you are right, but he's going to have to slug a lot to make up for the low OBP.

     

    This team should be good enough to get back into the playoffs. If we get there that great starting pitching of the below rotation helps us win it:

    Kuroda/Tanaka

    Lackey

    Lester

    Buchholz

    Doubront

    I think even if we trade Peavy just for a salary dump only I like this rotation anyway. Peavy costs $16 mil towards the cap. He needs to go. There are other trade opportunities as well. i would really like to have a Right/Left platoon at 1st for example. That probably would require a trade to handle. 

    Peavy is not a salary dump kind of player. Dempster is, but not Peavy.

     
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  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This is true. But so what? Isn't a glorified platoon player still what they are when everything is combined? If Choo is a 5 WAR player, its not a negative that he has extreme splits. Yes, he might actually cost you a game in the playoffs against a lefty, but he probably wins you two games on his own against righties.

    I get this, and I think that if we make line-up adjustments, the negative impact can be minimized.

    I'm Ok with us getting Choo or Ethier, but I was pointing out the issues they have.

     

    If you have a gutsy manager who is willing to sit a star player with extreme splits in the playoffs, the "glorified platoon player" has even more value then their total sum. A Choo-Gomes combined player might have 8 WAR between them if they were platooned. Choo getting you 6 WAR against righties and Gomes getting you 2 WAR against lefties.

    A Nava-Gomes LF platoon, if allowed to happen for a full year could put up very nice nice numbers... not much worse than a Choo or Ethier put up overall.

     

    You can't platoon every position. And sitting a star making big money is a very difficult thing. But if you did, you get not a very good player or excellent player when combing extreme splits, you get the best player in the game not named after a fish.

    I'm OK with platooning 2-3 positions, if the other slots are solid:

    C: Salty-Ross

    LF: Nava-Gomes

    1B/DH: Nava-Carp-Middy-Papi (Gomes could DH if Papi is hurt or at 1B)

     

    And if you don't platoon Choo and suffer through his at bats vs. lefties? You get a 5 WAR player. Which is excellent. So its not a bad thing and could be a very good fact.

    The age old argument: if you bench Choo vs LHPs, does he still produce vs RHPs at the same rate? Actually, since Choo still has a .340 OBP vs lefties, I would not bench him.

    Ethier is a close call as a strict platoon, and Victorino, Gomes and Drew are as well.

    All things being equal, I'd rather have a 5 WAR guy with pretty even splits than a wide split 5 WAR guy. It makes it harder for an opposing manager to bring in a late inning relief pitcher to minimize the chances of getting burned.

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BMav. Show BMav's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A Nava-Gomes LF platoon, if allowed to happen for a full year could put up very nice nice numbers... not much worse than a Choo or Ethier put up overall.

    I'm OK with platooning 2-3 positions, if the other slots are solid:

    C: Salty-Ross

    LF: Nava-Gomes

    1B/DH: Nava-Carp-Middy-Papi (Gomes could DH if Papi is hurt or at 1B)

    All things being equal, I'd rather have a 5 WAR guy with pretty even splits than a wide split 5 WAR guy. It makes it harder for an opposing manager to bring in a late inning relief pitcher to minimize the chances of getting burned.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Those are the spots we might platoon. Maybe CF-RF or even SS-3rd base aswell. And I am fine sticking with Gomes-Nava-Carp in LF. And Carp-Nava-Papi-Middlebrooks-Other rightie at 1st base. I think we have reasonable options on the team now.

    The key to extreme splits being a plus is you must sit the weak split. So if the mananger pinch hits the bench guy against the tough reliever, you gain in the process. So I still think its slightly positive. On the other hand, when a manager uses the weak split guy because of superstitions, it can be a big negative. But sometimes big negatives have a way of working out.

    I am not really pimping for Choo btw or any other extreme split guy. Just think its not that big of a deal. I think Choo's opposite field swing is a much more important point. He has a swing made for the Monster. And also plate discipline the team's offense is built on.

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Tim Dierkes envisions $150MM over seven years for Jacoby Ellsbury 

     

    No way do I come near that amount and years.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Right now, I'm for bringing em all back and do it again. Hang the price!

    -Daf.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Would you settle for the same team minus Dempster and Gomes?

    If we can dump Dempster at cost, trade Gomes, nontender Bailey and restructure Lackey's unbalanced deal, we could have about $55M to spend. That would put us in the ballpark to bring back the big 4:

    $19M/yr Ellsbury

    $14M/yr Napoli

    $12M/yr Drew

    $10M/yr Salty

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to DaffyDan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Right now, I'm for bringing em all back and do it again. Hang the price!

    -Daf.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Would you settle for the same team minus Dempster and Gomes?

    If we can dump Dempster at cost, trade Gomes, nontender Bailey and restructure Lackey's unbalanced deal, we could have about $55M to spend. That would put us in the ballpark to bring back the big 4:

    $19M/yr Ellsbury

    $14M/yr Napoli

    $12M/yr Drew

    $10M/yr Salty

    [/QUOTE]

    There is no way the Sox Front Office brings back the "Big 4." Even if they had a 100 million to spend, this Front Office is smart enough to realize that they caught lightning in a bottle and changes need to be made.  Ben Cherington said so last week.  

    I think that they realistically may bring back 1 or 2 of those guys at best, but I wouldn't be surprised if none of them return.  Napoli seems to be the most likely with Salty an outside shot.  I'd say Drew & Ellsbury both have a less than 20% chance.  It's obviously speculation at this point, but the point is that the Sox will never sign all 4 players and are well prepared to make some significant changes.

    I would also speculate that the chances of the Sox signing Choo are less than 1%.  They aren't giving another 100 million dollar contract to an outfielder who has never played here before any time soon.  Trust me on that one.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    For discussion sake, how would we feel about Pedey playing SS?  That was his position in college. Maybe it would be easier for us to find a 2nd baseman...This is prompted by the way by my new friend telling me TWICE on Fri. that Pedey could play SS making me wonder if he got that from him.  I'm not sure if I like the idea, but I am sure if anyone could do it...

    I would like to think that Workman or Webster might be able to duplicate what Dempster did, and Doobie could definitely have done better than Peavy in his playoff starts.  So I'd go along with trading them to improve the team.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Britton was the guy I couldn't remember.  He did well at the end of the season and Farrell seemed to trust him.  We have young guys on the doorstep and near the doorstep.l

     

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