A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.

    [/QUOTE]

    One more thing: do you think Dempster's' low 2014 projected numbers reflect the possibility he may be our 6th starter.

    If he was traded to a team with weak 4/5 slot strters would his WAR projection go up?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Random thoughts (or my best Southpaw impersonation)...

    If we're going to spend over $100mil on anybody, which I doubt we will, we'll spend it on Ellsbury and no one else in this year's free agent class. In other words, Choo ain't happening. I also don't buy any interest in Kemp and his $20+mil per year price tag.

    I think one of the three, Dempster, Peavy, Lackey in order of likelihood, gets dealt this off-season and I hope we're not regretting the move by August. You know, you can never have too much pitching.

    It makes zero sense to me to deal Daniel Nava, a cost-controlled, high-on-base, versatile switch-hitter just to create space for an overpriced Choo or Granderson or an aging Beltran.

    The Fielder deal dramatically increases the odds that Napoli returns, maybe a deal like was originally offered? 3/$39? Although Hart is very intriguing on a one-year, make good deal.

    I still think Salty will be our opening day catcher next year on a deal similar to what Ruiz signed.

    Players that I think will be gone...Ells, Drew, Lavarnway, Hanrahan, Morales and one of the three starters listed above.

    Players most people think are gone but may stick at the right price...Salty and Bailey.

     

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    In response to hill55's comment:

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.

    One more thing: do you think Dempster's' low 2014 projected numbers reflect the possibility he may be our 6th starter.

    If he was traded to a team with weak 4/5 slot strters would his WAR projection go up?

    That's what I was getting at when I wrote: "I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas."

    Steamer projects Ryan Dempster with a 2014 WAR of 0.9 in 40 games, including 10 starts, while projecting Jason Vargas with a 2014 WAR of 2.0 in 32 starts.

    Still, it would be hard to justify Dempster's nearly double 2014 salary of $13.25 million (to the $7 million in the first season of the Vargas contract).

    The sobering thought is FanGraphs columnist Dave Cameron's assertion that in the current market a player need only accumulate 5 WAR over the life of a four-year contract to justify the $32 million price tag. Cameron gives the example of a player who posts 2.0, 1.5, 1.0 and 0.5 WAR in the four years.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/royals-sign-jason-vargas/

    A long-term contract carries risks, but Vargas may well be a bargain in 2017 dollars if salary inflation continues.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Random thoughts (or my best Southpaw impersonation)...

    If we're going to spend over $100mil on anybody, which I doubt we will, we'll spend it on Ellsbury and no one else in this year's free agent class. In other words, Choo ain't happening. I also don't buy any interest in Kemp and his $20+mil per year price tag.

    I don't see us spending big on Ellsbury or Choo. LA would have to pay a big chunck for me to think about Kemp.

    I think one of the three, Dempster, Peavy, Lackey in order of likelihood, gets dealt this off-season and I hope we're not regretting the move by August. You know, you can never have too much pitching.

    Trading Dempster makes the most sense, and if someone gets hurt we can trade for the same type pitcher this summer.

    It makes zero sense to me to deal Daniel Nava, a cost-controlled, high-on-base, versatile switch-hitter just to create space for an overpriced Choo or Granderson or an aging Beltran.

    I love Nava and his high OBP, but the cost-controlled, high-on-base, versatile switch-hitter attributes is what makes him wanted by other GMs and raises the return value in trade.

    I hope we hold onto him, but I do see Beltran as the best available "papi protector" on the open market today.

    The Fielder deal dramatically increases the odds that Napoli returns, maybe a deal like was originally offered? 3/$39? Although Hart is very intriguing on a one-year, make good deal.

    Even before the Fielder trade, I thought Napoli had the best chance of returning out of all our FAs.

    I still think Salty will be our opening day catcher next year on a deal similar to what Ruiz signed.

    I think watching Ross play out the last games of the WS was the balance tipper. I want him back, but seriously doubt he returns.

    Players that I think will be gone...Ells, Drew, Lavarnway, Hanrahan, Morales and one of the three starters listed above.

    Hanrahan is a FA this winter.

    Players most people think are gone but may stick at the right price...Salty and Bailey.

    Maybe.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    They didnt have a ton of power in the OF this year so I really think your reading too much into whatever comment you heard.

    Choo is looking at the same kind of deal as Ells and hes about 1.5 years older, so my guess is if they dont sign Ells, then its probably no on signing Choo. He also has huge splits vs LHP (sub 700OPS). Choo is also an average of 15-20HR a year and gets caught stealing at about a 30-35% clip. Not good. Im not saying his not a good player, because he is. All Im saying is committing 6-7 years and the kind of $$ him and Boras are looking for to a guy thats going to be 32 in July isnt the smartest thing to do taking everything into consideration. You cant say a player would have hit .300 playing in Fenway with a ton of 2b and HR. Thats ridiculous. theres no way of knowing that. They said Naps would have 35HR playing in Fenway. That didnt work out so well. Actually, I think Naps had better numbers away from Fenway. Nava and Choo are actually very similar. Slightly lower numbers for Nava, but hes a .300 hitter that can hit 10-15HR with an OBP around .380-.400 at a 500K salary compared to a possible 20M per deal.

    Corey Hart on a 1yr make good deal makes sense instead of a multiple player platoon at 1b. You should look at his numbers before posting. Yes, he had knee issues in 2013, not the last 2 years though. Hart is a 30HR hitter who can drive in 80-100RBI (87 HR 2010-12) hes a  280 BA, .340OBP and almost .500SLG. Hes averaged an .850OPS 2010-12. His splits  are both north of .825 vs LH and RHP. In 103 games at 1b hes looked good. He doent need to be platooned. maybe rested a few games. He can also go to the corner OF in NL parks so papi can play too. Id rather have a proven player at 1b than mess with a bunch of platoons. Thats overthinking things.

    They seem to really be interested in Beltran in the OF though. Not sure I like him for 3 years. After Thanksgiving things should heat up a bit.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, Hart did play in 2012. My bad.

    Is that what you want though, Hart at 1st base? About the same hitter as Napoli maybe but much worse defensively, and playing fulltime at around $9 mil or more or a platoon of Carp and someone like Morse at 1/2 the cost optimized right to left. Aging with 2 bad knees? Carp put up decent numbers and he's cheap. Why not promote from within when we have Nava also and Ortiz to back them up?

    Virtually no one thinks Choo will get the same deal as Ellsbury besides you but beyond that he is much worse defensively and not even a real CF in most team's eyes. They are apples to pears but the bottom line is that according to their hit charts Ellsbury is hurt by Fenway and Choo is helped by Fenway. Yes, hit charts do matter. They are significant data. Ellsbury can barely play wall ball with like 2 balls which would have even touched the wall or gone over last year. His best stroke is to line it to left field but pitchers don't even give him that outside pitch much any more and Fenway being so small in LF he is hurt plus it's tough to hit it out in RF so Ellsbury is not optimized at all offensively in Fenway. Choo, on the other hand, according to his hit chart looks more  like David Ortiz according to his hit chart:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/shin-soo-choo/hitchart/288287?q=shin-soo-choo

    Overlay Choo's hits over Fenway park and you will see why i made my BOLD prediction. One could also say FOOLISH prediction as there is no indication they want to sign Choo in the news but from a data driven perspective, Choo is a solid sign as a corner OF particularly in LF. And according to one report Farrell said they wouldn't want to go with JBJ as the starter in CF unless they had more power from the corner slots. So we looked at who would represent power in the corner slots ( other than trades which of course could certainly happen ) and it came down to the power based FA like Granderson, Choo, Beltran...etc. I think Beltran and Choo are the best fits. Choo's hit chart indicated he is a better fit.

    I don't know, do you think Choo's .423 OBP would look good as our lead off guy when he also hit twice as many HR last year as Ellsbury and has proven to be more durable and is clearly more optimized in Fenway and will probably be cheaper than Ellsbury? 

    Southpa, you say you like Hart's .850 OPS over the period of 2010-2012. Look at Morse's OPS in the same period and he should cost less:

    .870

    .910

    .791

    By the way, I don't want to trade Nava but Farrell is obviously not a fan if he starts Gomes over and over him against RH pitchers in the playoffs. I like Nava. I hope they keep him as he can back up in LF, RF, 1st and DH and he's cheap but if they could get some decent talent for my mother I'd trade her in a heartbeat if she were a baseball player!

    Seriously though, as much as I like Nava, that real estate in LF is valuable. We need major pop in that slot and Nava's defensive value is the biggest reason why he never got much of a shot coming up. There was no obvious place for him defensively. He's probably best off as Kansas City's DH or something like that if they trade Butler...etc. and as a reserve OF / 1st base guy. Defense matters.

    Finally, when I look at Hart's 100 plus games at 1st base I don't think of the word "good". He's a major liability defensively.

    Our brains must be wired differently. We look at the same data and see completely different outcomes. I'm a democrat. I bet you are a Republican!

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

     

    They didnt have a ton of power in the OF this year so I really think your reading too much into whatever comment you heard.

    Choo is looking at the same kind of deal as Ells and hes about 1.5 years older, so my guess is if they dont sign Ells, then its probably no on signing Choo. He also has huge splits vs LHP (sub 700OPS). Choo is also an average of 15-20HR a year and gets caught stealing at about a 30-35% clip. Not good. Im not saying his not a good player, because he is. All Im saying is committing 6-7 years and the kind of $$ him and Boras are looking for to a guy thats going to be 32 in July isnt the smartest thing to do taking everything into consideration. You cant say a player would have hit .300 playing in Fenway with a ton of 2b and HR. Thats ridiculous. theres no way of knowing that. They said Naps would have 35HR playing in Fenway. That didnt work out so well. Actually, I think Naps had better numbers away from Fenway. Nava and Choo are actually very similar. Slightly lower numbers for Nava, but hes a .300 hitter that can hit 10-15HR with an OBP around .380-.400 at a 500K salary compared to a possible 20M per deal.

    Corey Hart on a 1yr make good deal makes sense instead of a multiple player platoon at 1b. You should look at his numbers before posting. Yes, he had knee issues in 2013, not the last 2 years though. Hart is a 30HR hitter who can drive in 80-100RBI (87 HR 2010-12) hes a  280 BA, .340OBP and almost .500SLG. Hes averaged an .850OPS 2010-12. His splits  are both north of .825 vs LH and RHP. In 103 games at 1b hes looked good. He doent need to be platooned. maybe rested a few games. He can also go to the corner OF in NL parks so papi can play too. Id rather have a proven player at 1b than mess with a bunch of platoons. Thats overthinking things.

    They seem to really be interested in Beltran in the OF though. Not sure I like him for 3 years. After Thanksgiving things should heat up a bit.

     



    Yes, Hart did play in 2012. My bad.

     

    Is that what you want though, Hart at 1st base? About the same hitter as Napoli maybe but much worse defensively, and playing fulltime at around $9 mil or more or a platoon of Carp and someone like Morse at 1/2 the cost optimized right to left. Aging with 2 bad knees? Carp put up decent numbers and he's cheap. Why not promote from within when we have Nava also and Ortiz to back them up?

    Virtually no one thinks Choo will get the same deal as Ellsbury besides you but beyond that he is much worse defensively and not even a real CF in most team's eyes. They are apples to pears but the bottom line is that according to their hit charts Ellsbury is hurt by Fenway and Choo is helped by Fenway. Yes, hit charts do matter. They are significant data. Ellsbury can barely play wall ball with like 2 balls which would have even touched the wall or gone over last year. His best stroke is to line it to left field but pitchers don't even give him that outside pitch much any more and Fenway being so small in LF he is hurt plus it's tough to hit it out in RF so Ellsbury is not optimized at all offensively in Fenway. Choo, on the other hand, according to his hit chart looks more  like David Ortiz according to his hit chart:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/shin-soo-choo/hitchart/288287?q=shin-soo-choo

    Overlay Choo's hits over Fenway park and you will see why i made my BOLD prediction. One could also say FOOLISH prediction as there is no indication they want to sign Choo in the news but from a data driven perspective, Choo is a solid sign as a corner OF particularly in LF. And according to one report Farrell said they wouldn't want to go with JBJ as the starter in CF unless they had more power from the corner slots. So we looked at who would represent power in the corner slots ( other than trades which of course could certainly happen ) and it came down to the power based FA like Granderson, Choo, Beltran...etc. I think Beltran and Choo are the best fits. Choo's hit chart indicated he is a better fit.

    I don't know, do you think Choo's .423 OBP would look good as our lead off guy when he also hit twice as many HR last year as Ellsbury and has proven to be more durable and is clearly more optimized in Fenway and will probably be cheaper than Ellsbury? 

    Southpa, you say you like Hart's .850 OPS over the period of 2010-2012. Look at Morse's OPS in the same period and he should cost less:

    .870

    .910

    .791

    By the way, I don't want to trade Nava but Farrell is obviously not a fan if he starts Gomes over and over him against RH pitchers in the playoffs. I like Nava. I hope they keep him as he can back up in LF, RF, 1st and DH and he's cheap but if they could get some decent talent for my mother I'd trade her in a heartbeat if she were a baseball player!

    Seriously though, as much as I like Nava, that real estate in LF is valuable. We need major pop in that slot and Nava's defensive value is the biggest reason why he never got much of a shot coming up. There was no obvious place for him defensively. He's probably best off as Kansas City's DH or something like that if they trade Butler...etc. and as a reserve OF / 1st base guy. Defense matters.

    Finally, when I look at Hart's 100 plus games at 1st base I don't think of the word "good". He's a major liability defensively.

    Our brains must be wired differently. We look at the same data and see completely different outcomes. I'm a democrat. I bet you are a Republican!

     



     

    I dont like Choo because of the $$ and years, not because hes not good, well, besides his defense, which has got a lot worse the last 2 years. And No, Im not the only one that thinks Choo can very well get north of 100M. He will prob get a year or 2 less than Ells, but the same anual AAV is what I was talking about and what Im concerned about.

    http://mlb.si.com/2013/11/22/what-is-he-really-worth-shin-soo-choo/

    I saw Hart play 1b a number of times. Hes NOT a liability, but you rely on the numbers like everyone did with Drew. How'd that work out? Take defensive metrics with a grain of salt and do not rely soley on them. Just out of curiosity, what defensive metrics at 1b did you look at?

    I dont have an issue with Morse. I just like Hart better. His War of -05 and Harts of 2.0 is why Hart costs more. Hart is the obvious better all around player. I dont care for a Platoon. Carp will get his share of AB's this year somewhere. Personally, Im not a huge fan for a lot of platoons. Maybe thats why we look at different players. Regardless whether it was Morse or Hart, they would both be my FT starter at 1b with no platoon. The difference for me is Morse made just under 7M this year (Hart 10M), and I imagine he will require more than a 1yr deal that would be close to what Hart could get for only 1yr. I dont want to sign someone like Morse for 3 years. Hart may cost slightly more, or not, but its only for one year and we probably can get a draft pick out of it after 2014 if hae has a good year. Those 1yr make good deals have some solid benefits to them. See Beltre/Drew. And since this is a realistic thread...Realistically, Papi is NOT going to be a BU 1b option. He will play 1b in NL parks only.

    Beltran on no more than a 2yr deal around 14-16M wouldnt bother me either. Any more than that, I pass.

    Oh, and I dont follow politics...They are all fake, liars and thieves :) And yes, I would say our brains are certainly "wired" differently.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
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    In response to southpaw777's comment:

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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

     

     

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree with all of the above!

    Not saying RS couldn't do the impossible and win a WS 2yrs in a row, but I sure wouldn't bet the house on it. Time to start moving in the young talent and look at 15-16 as more likely target dates. Give WMB chance to prove 12 wasn't a fluke that wrist injury slowed him last yr, JBJ to CF; Boegarts SS. Cecchini / Owens / Swihart / Webster & others on the way. Great time to be a RS fan = 3 WS titles last 10 years and a very bright future looking at farm system.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that we are going to have to let some kids that have nothing left to prove in AAA get a shot. Xander, JBJ, even Middy since hes had 2 injuries in both of his MLB years. Then theres Workman who looks ready for a shot in the rotation.

    I certainly dont expect a B2B WS title, but I do expect to field a competetive team and we'll see what happens. I also expect some growing pains with a couple young players. Im looking at catcher, bullpen, and 1b as the big needs. Ideally, Id like a FT 1bman who can play OF if need be (see Corey Hart). I still want to resign Ellsbury, and Im interested to see what his market value is.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Lester will be a solid starter through age 35

     

     

    Corey Hart is a much better option than Mike Morse.

    Dempster is much more important to this team than people give him credit for.

    Choo is NOT a good option for his price. Id rather pay Ells that $$ if we even go there.

    The Sox are not going to have a bunch of crazy platoons and shift guys all over the field.

    Vic is our best RF option. Why move a GG RF'er, especially in Fenway.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Agree with all of the above!

    Not saying RS couldn't do the impossible and win a WS 2yrs in a row, but I sure wouldn't bet the house on it. Time to start moving in the young talent and look at 15-16 as more likely target dates. Give WMB chance to prove 12 wasn't a fluke that wrist injury slowed him last yr, JBJ to CF; Boegarts SS. Cecchini / Owens / Swihart / Webster & others on the way. Great time to be a RS fan = 3 WS titles last 10 years and a very bright future looking at farm system.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree that we are going to have to let some kids that have nothing left to prove in AAA get a shot. Xander, JBJ, even Middy since hes had 2 injuries in both of his MLB years. Then theres Workman who looks ready for a shot in the rotation.

    I certainly dont expect a B2B WS title, but I do expect to field a competetive team and we'll see what happens. I also expect some growing pains with a couple young players. Im looking at catcher, bullpen, and 1b as the big needs. Ideally, Id like a FT 1bman who can play OF if need be (see Corey Hart). I still want to resign Ellsbury, and Im interested to see what his market value is.

    [/QUOTE]


    I like Hart over Morse as well. Hopefully healthy following 2 knee surgeries, but that is for med. staff to determine. Just think we continue with orginal plan that was to build the next great RS team thru our Farm system. Agree we need help at 1B and C that we don't have in the farm right now. But seems everytime we win a WS title there is this need to go out and spend big to win again and we know how that turns out. Resign Naps or a Hart, get a C on 2 yr max [would do 3 w/ salty if $ is right] til  Vasquez / Swihart / or Denney are ready. Seems alot of people are very down on WMB, I still have high hopes that he can be a very good player for us, last yr down yr following wrist injury. Many a player have had bad yr following wrist injury, then bounced back hope thats the case w/ WMB. Just so much talk about trading pitching, just hope Ben doesn't go there, PITCHING WINS!

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Boom, after that crack, I wouldn't be expecting much from Mommie Dearest under the tree this year.  But honestly I feel the same way--about trading my mother if it would help.

    Moon, where are you?  Traveling for TG?  

    OK, at the risk of sounding like a rooster, I mentioned during WS I have a new friend who's been a long time friend of Pedey, has lots of RS items on the walls of his restaurant, etc.  Anyway I went in this week, he went to his safe, and presented me with an official "WS" ball signed by Pedey with "15" on it.  I have no idea what it might be worth, but it's priceless to me.  I got a little emotional holding this plastic encased ball.  I started watching the RS when Dick Stuart was playing first (Dr. Strangleglove) and Frank Malzone was playing 3rd and I remember seeing Ted Williams hit a HR in his last game on my grandmother's black and white tv.  I watched all those teams lose to NY all the time I was growing up--that ball might just go in my coffin with me!  2014 Baby!  

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.

    [/QUOTE]

    One more thing: do you think Dempster's' low 2014 projected numbers reflect the possibility he may be our 6th starter.

    If he was traded to a team with weak 4/5 slot strters would his WAR projection go up?

    [/QUOTE]

    If a player has a positive WAR and is given more PA/IP they will have a higher WAR.  You know that, and I know you know that...and you know I know you know that.  But I think you asked that question in the context of making a point, no? Which I agree with and which is why with his track record and the market for pitching his value is higher than most give him credit for.  But that doesn't come without saying he holds a lot of value because he doesn't, but he holds enough to be a tradeable piece.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.

    [/QUOTE]

    One more thing: do you think Dempster's' low 2014 projected numbers reflect the possibility he may be our 6th starter.

    If he was traded to a team with weak 4/5 slot strters would his WAR projection go up?

    [/QUOTE]

    If a player has a positive WAR and is given more PA/IP they will have a higher WAR.  You know that, and I know you know that...and you know I know you know that.  But I think you asked that question in the context of making a point, no? Which I agree with and which is why with his track record and the market for pitching his value is higher than most give him credit for.  But that doesn't come without saying he holds a lot of value because he doesn't, but he holds enough to be a tradeable piece.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'm not a big Dempster fan and never was. I thought it was our worst winter move at the time and afterwards as well.

    I was making a point about WAR projections on Dempster vs Vargas. I wasn't trying to make a point about what I feel his value is.

    Here is my opinion: I'd trade Dempster for nothing but his contract being paid. We can do much better with $13M.

    Maybe I'd even trade him for nothing and pay $3-5M of his deal.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, where are you?  Traveling for TG?

    My mother-in-law was here from Mexico for 3 weeks and took a nasty fall on our driveway. She's okay now, but had to spend lots of time in the hospital. My parents are coming down from Maine for TG, so I'm trying to get the homestead in shape.

     

    Cool connection to Pedey. That play he made that Salty threw the ball wide of third was unforgetable.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, I'm sorry.  Hope she's doing better.  Hope your family has a great TG--then you can leave one hot stove for another!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, I'm sorry.  Hope she's doing better.  Hope your family has a great TG--then you can leave one hot stove for another!

    [/QUOTE]

    She's much better, thanks. She's in Brownsville now and will head back to Mexico Saturday.

     

    So, Badenhop makes #40. If we sign 2-4 free agents, who do we trade or cut?

    Bailey?

    Butler?

    Dempster?  (Maybe Peavy)

    Morales? (Maybe Miller)

    Castellanos? (Maybe Hassan)

    Villareal? (Maybe Wilson)

    Holt?

     

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Crit, your killing us man! You've got connections! And you might even be older than me so we better get together soon before its too late!

    Assuming Choo is signed for a year or 2 less and slightly less cash per year, wouldn't you prefer Choo? I know Ellsbury's a better base runner and better defender etc..but he will clearly cost more also. Choo appears to me to be a better fit. He sees a ton of pitches, gets on base more often, has had fewer injuries, hits with more power, is more consistent and is much more optimized for Fenway. 

    If they spend some cash and some picks, I hope they at least buy quality.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    Assuming Choo is signed for a year or 2 less and slightly less cash per year, wouldn't you prefer Choo? I know Ellsbury's a better base runner and better defender etc..but he will clearly cost more also. Choo appears to me to be a better fit. He sees a ton of pitches, gets on base more often, has had fewer injuries, hits with more power, is more consistent and is much more optimized for Fenway. 

    If they spend some cash and some picks, I hope they at least buy quality.

    Signing Shin-Soo Choo would cost the Red Sox their first-round draft pick (currently at No. 29 after the Yankees apparently forfeited their first-round pick by signing Brian McCann).

    Re-signing Jacoby Ellsbury would effectively cost the Red Sox one of their sandwich-round compensatory draft picks currently at Nos. 40-42:

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131111&content_id=63845866&c_id=mlb

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Assuming Choo is signed for a year or 2 less and slightly less cash per year, wouldn't you prefer Choo? I know Ellsbury's a better base runner and better defender etc..but he will clearly cost more also. Choo appears to me to be a better fit. He sees a ton of pitches, gets on base more often, has had fewer injuries, hits with more power, is more consistent and is much more optimized for Fenway. 

    Defensively, CF Ellsbury and RF Victorino is better than CF Victorino and RF Choo.

    Speed, Ellsbury leadoff and Victorino 2nd is better than Choo-Victorino.

    Almost everything else I give the edge to Choo.

    I'm a big OBP fan, so I'd prefer Choo, especially if the cost and years were better.

    Is this about what you had in mind?

     

    Choo $85M/5  >  Ellsbury $110M/6

    or

    Choo $70M/4 > Ellsbury $95M/5

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from emp9. Show emp9's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    With McCann gone to the Yanks for $17M a yr, looks like Salty is departing the FA on-Deck circle. 2 yrs/$20M would be great. Hope it's atleast close to that. I don't see him getting $14 a yrfrom the Red Sox (Maybe the White Sox?). The way I'd like to look at it, even if the Red Sox just save a couple Million on Salty, Badenhop is virtually free. Maybe I'd be wrong? 

     

    Personally, I'm still trying to define my expectations for the 2014 campaign. The Post-Season, as always, would be nice. The thing about having these shorter contracts is that they'll be more often in transition, it seems. I can't hide my indifference. As long as that strategy continues to build a solid core.

    I'm for trading pitching (Demp, Peavy, Lack) only if that means bringing-up BETTER pitchers via the farm.

    Seems like there has to be a trade somewhere to get protection for Papi. If there's any surprises this off-Season, I hope it's that. 

     

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, I'm sorry.  Hope she's doing better.  Hope your family has a great TG--then you can leave one hot stove for another!

    [/QUOTE]

    She's much better, thanks. She's in Brownsville now and will head back to Mexico Saturday.

     

    So, Badenhop makes #40. If we sign 2-4 free agents, who do we trade or cut?

    Bailey?

    Butler?

    Dempster?  (Maybe Peavy)

    Morales? (Maybe Miller)

    Castellanos? (Maybe Hassan)

    Villareal? (Maybe Wilson)

    Holt?

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Have to believe what many are speculating that the RS will indeed trade a starter. The trade for Badenhop was probably the first step. This allows Workman to move from pen, RS must feel he's ready. Look for Ben to acquire a C or 1B thru trade mkt w/ a starter + prospect. I didn't like the idea of moving Workman to rotation leaving a huge RH hole in the pen, but Ben took care of that.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to emp9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With McCann gone to the Yanks for $17M a yr, looks like Salty is departing the FA on-Deck circle. 2 yrs/$20M would be great. Hope it's atleast close to that. I don't see him getting $14 a yrfrom the Red Sox (Maybe the White Sox?). The way I'd like to look at it, even if the Red Sox just save a couple Million on Salty, Badenhop is virtually free. Maybe I'd be wrong? 

     

    Personally, I'm still trying to define my expectations for the 2014 campaign. The Post-Season, as always, would be nice. The thing about having these shorter contracts is that they'll be more often in transition, it seems. I can't hide my indifference. As long as that strategy continues to build a solid core.

    I'm for trading pitching (Demp, Peavy, Lack) only if that means bringing-up BETTER pitchers via the farm.

    Seems like there has to be a trade somewhere to get protection for Papi. If there's any surprises this off-Season, I hope it's that. 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I believe Salty will get at least a 3/30 deal somewhere.

    Although Ive been talking about Hart, my 1st choice has always been Naps.

    I really think WMB will breakout this year.

    Xander wont have much of a learning curve. Hes that good.

    Once again, people undervalue the security of having a back of your rotation pitcher who will give you 30+ games and 180IP without having to piece it together (Dempster). Id trade Peavy before Dempster. But thats just me.

    Rumors have it that the Sox like Trumbos power and Jepsen in the pen. Maybe a deal with the Halos will go down.

    All in all I always expect to be competetive. I dont expect B2B WS titles, although that would be sweet.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/11/24/will-middlebrooks-red-sox-already-preparing-for-next-season/rSVa5u1c5dt5DEOXOiJSZI/story.html

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Will Middlebrooks already preparing for next season   By  Peter Abraham |  GLOBE STAFF   

     

    HINGHAM — The cold, dark winter will soon envelop New England. But one Red Sox player still shows up at Fenway Park regularly to lift weights and work with the medical staff.

    Will Middlebrooks doesn’t know for sure what his role will be in 2014. Like everybody else, he is waiting to see how the roster comes together in the coming weeks. For now, he is preparing himself to be the starting third baseman.

    “That’s really all I can do,” Middlebrooks said Saturday after making an appearance on behalf of Good Sports, a nonprofit organization that gets sporting goods in the hands of disadvantaged kids. “I want to get my body right and be ready for next season.”

    Middlebrooks opened last season as the third baseman and batted fifth on Opening Day. He dropped steadily down the order because of a lack of production, and eventually off the roster in May when he was put on the disabled list with a back injury that was more significant than the team indicated at the time.

    When Middlebrooks returned in June, Jose Iglesias was entrenched as the third baseman. Middlebrooks was demoted to Triple A Pawtucket for two months, returning only after Iglesias was traded.

    Middlebrooks hit .276 with eight home runs and 24 RBIs over 41 games, helping the Sox secure the American League East title. Middlebrooks started eight of the first nine postseason games before Xander Bogaerts took over at third base.

    “It would have been selfish of me to complain. The important thing is that we won,” Middlebrooks said. “Our team, we played for each other. I may not have contributed much in the World Series but I feel like I helped us get to that point.”

    Middlebrooks had a .271 on-base percentage last season, which has to be improved. But he does have 32 home runs over the last two years, and that righthanded power has value. At 25, Middlebrooks remains very much a factor in the team’s future, barring a trade.

    Alex Hassan, an outfielder on the 40-man roster who is from Milton, will be a workout partner this winter. They will spend time at Fenway and in Woburn at the facility owned by team consultant Mike Boyle.

    “It’s an important time for me. I want to be 100 percent going to spring training,” Middlebrooks said. “I want to have a clean state, start over, and help this team win another one.

    “I’ve been spending a lot of time with David [Ortiz] talking about baseball and everything else. It has really helped me.”

    On Saturday, Middlebrooks played Wiffle ball with about 30 kids in a cul-de-sac, the group taking advantage of the pleasant weather to take big cuts at his pitches.

    John Hussey won a Good Sports auction in the spring to host Middlebrooks at his home. He intended it as a gift for his twin sons, Ben and Sam, and daughter Casey.

    The game was delayed when Middlebrooks was sent down. Five months later, he kept his promise and pitched a few innings before taking questions from the kids. There were plenty of photos and autographs, too.

    “Will has been so helpful,” said Christy Keswick, chief operating officer of Good Sports. “He connects with the kids and understands what our mission is. It’s a great experience for him, too.”

    Quincy-based Good Sports has collected $10 million in new equipment from manufacturers over the last 10 years and donated it to 500,000 kids in 41 states, 300,000 in Massachusetts alone.

    Middlebrooks will spend a few weeks back in his native Texas around the holidays. But the bulk of his offseason will be spent in Boston. He is enjoying the post-Series glow still on the faces of fans.

    “People don’t congratulate us, they say ‘thank you’ and you can tell how much it means to them,” he said. “I’ll just go down to the corner for a sub and people want to talk about the team. It’s great to be a part of. I love being in this city.”

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to emp9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    With McCann gone to the Yanks for $17M a yr, looks like Salty is departing the FA on-Deck circle. 2 yrs/$20M would be great. Hope it's atleast close to that. I don't see him getting $14 a yrfrom the Red Sox (Maybe the White Sox?). The way I'd like to look at it, even if the Red Sox just save a couple Million on Salty, Badenhop is virtually free. Maybe I'd be wrong? 

     

    Personally, I'm still trying to define my expectations for the 2014 campaign. The Post-Season, as always, would be nice. The thing about having these shorter contracts is that they'll be more often in transition, it seems. I can't hide my indifference. As long as that strategy continues to build a solid core.

    I'm for trading pitching (Demp, Peavy, Lack) only if that means bringing-up BETTER pitchers via the farm.

    Seems like there has to be a trade somewhere to get protection for Papi. If there's any surprises this off-Season, I hope it's that. 

     

     

    [/QUOTE]
    I am of the opinion that the protection for Papi might well be on the left side of our infield, regardless of who ends up on first. I look for Middlebrooks to bounce back and feel that Bogey is on the "rookie of the year" track.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I haven't had much time this year to research options much. I think you and I are in agreement that maybe Choo is a better fit Moon ( correct me if I'm wrong ). I do think Choo will cost $90 mil or so minimum over 5 years though. Maybe even $100 mil. I have no problem with it if they pass. Just saying he's a solid fit for us and someone is going to have to pay him. Why not us?

    To me, we still need some top guys if we are going to contend. I think I read recently that in 2 years almost everyone comes off the books beyond Buchholz and Pedroia. We do not have a long term contract problem. We can afford to carry some 5 year type contracts. Choo's hit chart and proven record of consistent success are what I would write my big check for.

    We have to be realistic though. We can't talk about signing Napoli, Salty, Ellsbury etc...in the same breath. It's Choo OR Beltran. Napoli OR Salty in all likelihood even though they play different positions.

    We have $32mil available. We've already spent $2 mil for Badenhop. I don't think we are going to blow $10 mil of it for Salty. What is interesting is that they almost were willing to go $9 mil or so per year for Ruiz so it does seem that they are willing to spend at catcher, but is it Salty? I sure hope not.

    I hope they look at the situation and try to be value shoppers, and to me Kuroda and Tanaka are the best bang for the buck still. We can always trade a starter to free up some more cash.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree that some of our best "Papi Protection" might be on the left side of our infield but I bet they sign at least one slugging OF or 1st baseman to fill that roll. I don't think they count on Middlebrooks or Bogaerts. I hope they bring in a Beltran or someone like him to protect Papi. Or a Choo to provide a top leadoff option. I have no problem with Middlebrooks or Bogaerts protecting Papi if the rest of the team looks solid.

     

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