A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Gomes and carp arent redundant. On is a RHH the other is LH. Gomes is strictly a LF'er where Carp can play 1b if needed also. If anything Carp and Nava are redundant. I also wouldnt just assume Middy cant play 1b this year. Hes never done it and Im sure they arent just going to throw him in there. he could possibly learn the position at some point, but you can just include him in there. its unreslistic this year.

    Middy played 1B a game in 2013. He also practiced there some during the season, but your point is well taken. I feel that if Middy works out this winter at 1B and sring training, he could become a fine 1Bman very quickly, but I agree, it is no sure bet.

    Yes, Nava and Carp might be more redundant than Gomes and Carp, but I don't see Nava being traded. If we do trade Gomes, we may lose the platoon advantage in LF, but Carp does hit lefties much better than Nava, and Gomes did not do as well against LHPs as expected in 2013. Carp actually has better numbers vs LHPs than RHPs over his MLB career, although one sample size is too small to use as a projection tool.

    Career:

    Carp vs LHPs .792 (685 PAs)

    Carp vs RHPs .779 (166 PAs)

    Note: Gomes hit .795 vs LHPs in 2013, but is career .859 and had some great numbers vs lefties from 2010-2012.

     

    I think a couple complimentary pieces like you mentioned at the end is what they will do. UOF'er, and UIF'er Depending on the return and/or the Tanaka situation, we could deal a starter too.

    Signing Tanaka would blow the roof off. I'd love it!

    It would certainly mean we'd could trade 1 or maybe even 2 back-end SP'ers. We might even still be under the luxury limit by doing so.

    [/QUOTE]


    Looks like the new posting system w/ 20mil max bid will drive the payouts to the player much higher, which will be a bigger salary cap hit for teams. If I'm interpeting it correctly if multiple teams place 20 mil bid on Tanaka [if posted] then Tanaka will be able to chose the team and deal he prefers ? In essance a bidding war. Would think in this case  20 mil per for Tanaka not unrealistic, not sure I would want to invest so heavily in someone who has not pitched in MLB or been proven? Don't think RS need to be desperate like other teams are and take such a high risk move w/ the depth of talent in the minors. While IMO Tanaka will be succesful in MLB, not sure the risk - reward for RS in there?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If it takesd $20M to get tanaka, then I'd have to think long and hard about trading Dempster & peavy to make budget room, but I do see it as an upgrade.

    [/QUOTE]


    Just not sure investing that amount of $ for that amount of years isn't what got this franchise in the trouble it just recently escaped, and while we both agree Tanaka will be a good player. How Good? Darvish Good or Dice K Good, thats the what I worry about. Just think safer bet is to let Owens / Raunado / Webster / Barnes develope and get better from within. If Ben goes Tanaka route better hope he's Darvish good! Sounds like we're talking a 100-140 mil investment for a player who never pitched a inning in MLB. These ard the type of moves if they backfire can cause havoc on a roster for many yrs, just not sure RS with there depth need to roll the dice so to speak?

    [/QUOTE]


    Base salary of 15M + incentives. He can make 20M, but he has to really earn the last 5M. 6 year deal. Hows that sound?

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Base salary of 15M + incentives. He can make 20M, but he has to really earn the last 5M. 6 year deal. Hows that sound?

    Sounds good, but it may not be the top offer.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I've mentioned many times now the scenario that has Drew, Bogey, Middlebrooks and Napoli splitting the 1800 or so at bats for three positions, 3b, ss and 1b. If I'm negotiating Drew's signing I tell him right up front that he should be prepared to play all four infield positions. And if that's acceptable, and he'll take something in the order of 2/$16mil, or 3/$21, then I'd sign him in a second.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Funny, I thought of doing the same with Michael Young... but doing it with Drew never crossed my mind.  How great would that defense play out around the diamond?  I have all the confidence that he would do an amazing job in that role.  That said, Borass might have something to say about that and might see more value with him as a starting SS somewhere.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew is a better fielding SS than Bogey, so why move Drew off SS?

    Bogey and Middy are better fielding 3Bmen than Drew, so why play Drew at 3B?

    Carp, Nava, Papi and Middy are better back-up 1Bmen than Drew, so why move Drew there?

    If we did sign Drew and trade Middy, it would make sense to sign him to play FT SS with some rest vs LHPs.

    If we signed Drew and traded Carp, any rotation plan would go something like this:

     

    PAs       vs RHPs                              vs LHPs

    SS   Drew 450                              Bogey 175/Drew 75

    3B  Bogey 450/Middy 50          Middy 250

    1B  Naps  350/Middy 100          Naps 250

    2B  Pedroia 450                           Pedey 250  

    Total PAs:

    Pedey 700

    Bogey 625

    Napoli 600

    Drew   525

    Middy 400

    If Papi get hurt or needs rest, Napoli, Bogey or Middy get his PAs, so it could end up like if Papi gets 600 PAs:

    Pedey 700

    Bogey 650

    Napoli 625

    Drew  525

    Middy 450

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, I'm not saying I'm for this arrangement, only saying it is a possibility. I think that for it to work most effectively Carp and either Dempster or Peavy must be dealt.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I've mentioned many times now the scenario that has Drew, Bogey, Middlebrooks and Napoli splitting the 1800 or so at bats for three positions, 3b, ss and 1b. If I'm negotiating Drew's signing I tell him right up front that he should be prepared to play all four infield positions. And if that's acceptable, and he'll take something in the order of 2/$16mil, or 3/$21, then I'd sign him in a second.

     

    [/QUOTE]


     

    Funny, I thought of doing the same with Michael Young... but doing it with Drew never crossed my mind.  How great would that defense play out around the diamond?  I have all the confidence that he would do an amazing job in that role.  That said, Borass might have something to say about that and might see more value with him as a starting SS somewhere.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew is a better fielding SS than Bogey, so why move Drew off SS?

    Bogey and Middy are better fielding 3Bmen than Drew, so why play Drew at 3B?

    Carp, Nava, Papi and Middy are better back-up 1Bmen than Drew, so why move Drew there?

    If we did sign Drew and trade Middy, it would make sense to sign him to play FT SS with some rest vs LHPs.

    If we signed Drew and traded Carp, any rotation plan would go something like this:

     

    PAs       vs RHPs                              vs LHPs

    SS   Drew 450                              Bogey 175/Drew 75

    3B  Bogey 450/Middy 50          Middy 250

    1B  Naps  350/Middy 100          Naps 250

    2B  Pedroia 450                           Pedey 250  

    Total PAs:

    Pedey 700

    Bogey 625

    Napoli 600

    Drew   525

    Middy 400

    If Papi get hurt or needs rest, Napoli, Bogey or Middy get his PAs, so it could end up like if Papi gets 600 PAs:

    Pedey 700

    Bogey 650

    Napoli 625

    Drew  525

    Middy 450

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Moon, I'm not saying I'm for this arrangement, only saying it is a possibility. I think that for it to work most effectively Carp and either Dempster or Peavy must be dealt.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Carp and Dempster will be dealt by opening day, but I guess we could go to the deadline.

    The money saved on Dempster will give us enough to have some flexibility with roster additions either this winter or at the deadline.

    My suggestion to trade Gomes or Carp is baed on the assumption that we will try and stay under the budget limit and the need for a CF'er in case JBJ struggles overall or vs LHPs only. I do not want Victorino in CF, Nava in RF (not sitting vs LHPs), and a Gomes/Carp platoon in LF.

    I do not want to "dump" either of these guys. If we do not get plus value in return, I'll be against the trade.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I have a lot of faith in JBJ, Bogey and our young pitchers. I'm not sold on Middy, but I certainly feel he could provice a big boost over 2013's 3B production. On paper, it looks scary, but the game is not played on paper.

    Losses:

    PAs                    OPS  (other)

    636  Ellsbury  .781  (52 SB/4CS)

    501  Drew       .777  (50 XBHs)

    470  Salty       .804  (54 XBHs)

    234  Iggy        .785  (Great D)

    58  Ciriaco      .646

    IP                  ERA   WHIP

    37  Aceves  4.86  1.730

    30  Morten.  5.34  1.582

    29  Bailey     3.77  1.221

    15 Thornton 3.52  1.761

    10  Beato      3.60  1.765

    7  Hanrahan 9.82  1.400

    1.0  Bard       9.00 2.182 

     

    Gains:

    AJ Pierzynski

    Edward Mujica

    Burke Badenhop

    Alex Castellanos

    A Full (possible) season of:

      Jake Peavy, Workman, Britton, B Villareal, Buchholz, Ross and other injured players

      

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Not much of a hot stove right now.  I've read all the tweets and twerps and the words "Red Sox" aren't there anywhere.  We're not on the burner or even in the kitchen.  In the pantry somewhere on a shelf--covered and out of sight.  Please Santa, is there some GM out there facing some serious challenges who loves our starters, Carp, Nava, Gomes, etc. and maybe young pitching --who has a young outfielder with bulging biceps and 30 HR potential?  We need a star on the tree...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Not much of a hot stove right now.  I've read all the tweets and twerps and the words "Red Sox" aren't there anywhere.  We're not on the burner or even in the kitchen.  In the pantry somewhere on a shelf--covered and out of sight.  Please Santa, is there some GM out there facing some serious challenges who loves our starters, Carp, Nava, Gomes, etc. and maybe young pitching --who has a young outfielder with bulging biceps and 30 HR potential?  We need a star on the tree...

    [/QUOTE]

    Meh.   That doesn't mean much to me.  One thing I've learned is that sometimes the biggest trades come out of nowhere. 

    Or not.  :-)

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If they bring back Drew on any level I will tear up my Redsox Nation card and seek the kind of help Softy needs! Because for me if that were true, reality would have broken up into little tiny pieces and I would be an orange and afraid people were going to eat me.
    That's how unlikely I think it is for Drew to get re signed!

    You know what would rally impress me right now? It would be for the Redsox to say the heck with it, we are the current world series champions and we want to stay that way and that's why we are willing to go over the luxury tax limit and go after Choo and Tanaka!

    Do you hear me Ben? Ben?

    Oh well, I don't think he's listening!

     

    DRATS!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thats what I was hoping when I saw 65IP by the time august/sept rolled around.

    NYY lost their 1st round and both comp picks as well as their 3rd comp pick for resigning Kuroda. They dont pick until like #58 in the draft now. Not exactly a way to build a team for the long haul.

    The Yanks are locking themselves into the signing a free agent answer to any hole that arises over the next few years.

    [/QUOTE]


    As Cashman said recently: "It's the Yankee Way!".

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Tanaka looks like the kind of breakthrough player that only comes around once in a while. Darvish has definitely panned out. The team that signs Tanaka probably is in the playoffs next year IMO. He's that important. Look what Kuroda did for the Yanks last year. Carried them on his freaking back all year and they almost got in mainly because of him! Add Tanaka to that rotation and you might as well pencil the Yanks in the playoffs right now.

    This off season has been very ho hum so far. We have not improved. We haven't even come close to improving. Will it be enough?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Tanaka looks like the kind of breakthrough player that only comes around once in a while. Darvish has definitely panned out. The team that signs Tanaka probably is in the playoffs next year IMO. He's that important. Look what Kuroda did for the Yanks last year. Carried them on his freaking back all year and they almost got in mainly because of him! Add Tanaka to that rotation and you might as well pencil the Yanks in the playoffs right now.

    This off season has been very ho hum so far. We have not improved. We haven't even come close to improving. Will it be enough?

    [/QUOTE]

    On paper we have not improved, but...

    1) A healthy Buch and a whole year of Peavy would be a big boost.

    2) + Mujica and no Bailey, Aceves & Hanrahan as our closers for half the season.

    3) Bogey could be a big plus, right?

    4) Our 3B cannot be as bad as 2013, can it?

    5) If Victorino stays healthy, Nava stays in LF in a pure platoon with Gomes.

    6) Pedey had an OPS over .860 in 2010 and 2011, but only .787 this year. It's not a lot to expect .860+ at age 30, is it?

    7) Napoli had an OPS 200 points lower than 2 years ago, could he stike lightening again?

    8) Workman & Britton for a full season- not a third.

    9) Morales and Miller back from injury.

    10) Gomes did not reach expecations vs LHPs, in fact he was way off. Could that change in 2014?

     

    Yes, there are many ifs here, and I avoided gushing over JBJ, but we still have a nice team here. I know last winter I was claiming we needed too many ifs to come true to have a chance, so I can see your points here, but we have a nice team here with lots of depth, lots of kids banging on the door that could surprise us, and good management top to bottom.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Tanaka looks like the kind of breakthrough player that only comes around once in a while. Darvish has definitely panned out. The team that signs Tanaka probably is in the playoffs next year IMO. He's that important. Look what Kuroda did for the Yanks last year. Carried them on his freaking back all year and they almost got in mainly because of him! Add Tanaka to that rotation and you might as well pencil the Yanks in the playoffs right now.

    This off season has been very ho hum so far. We have not improved. We haven't even come close to improving. Will it be enough?

    [/QUOTE]


    I read the article Gabe Kapler wrote about Japanese baseball and difficulties, culturally etc., the transition is.  He, of course, has experience from his Japanese baseball playing days.  It was an interesting article.

    In it, he compares Tanaka to Uehara and the similarities are incredible.  Interestingly, Uehara was initially expected to be a starter here in the States.  We all know now where Koji's claim to fame will be.  Also, Kapler's opinion is that Tanaka's stuff is not as overwhelming as Darvish's is...fastball movement, K potential etc.

    Whatever, but I think that if Tanaka has the control(I'm old school..I hate the term 'command') Uehara has, along with his splitter, he'll certainly be an effective addition to a pitching staff.  The big question is how effective? His big pitch is the splitter and we all know how effective it is for Uehara.

    In essence, any signing of that potential monetary amount will be a gamble.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Gomes and carp arent redundant. On is a RHH the other is LH. Gomes is strictly a LF'er where Carp can play 1b if needed also. If anything Carp and Nava are redundant. I also wouldnt just assume Middy cant play 1b this year. Hes never done it and Im sure they arent just going to throw him in there. he could possibly learn the position at some point, but you can just include him in there. its unreslistic this year.

    Middy played 1B a game in 2013. He also practiced there some during the season, but your point is well taken. I feel that if Middy works out this winter at 1B and sring training, he could become a fine 1Bman very quickly, but I agree, it is no sure bet.

    Yes, Nava and Carp might be more redundant than Gomes and Carp, but I don't see Nava being traded. If we do trade Gomes, we may lose the platoon advantage in LF, but Carp does hit lefties much better than Nava, and Gomes did not do as well against LHPs as expected in 2013. Carp actually has better numbers vs LHPs than RHPs over his MLB career, although one sample size is too small to use as a projection tool.

    Career:

    Carp vs LHPs .792 (685 PAs)

    Carp vs RHPs .779 (166 PAs)

    Note: Gomes hit .795 vs LHPs in 2013, but is career .859 and had some great numbers vs lefties from 2010-2012.

     

    I think a couple complimentary pieces like you mentioned at the end is what they will do. UOF'er, and UIF'er Depending on the return and/or the Tanaka situation, we could deal a starter too.

    Signing Tanaka would blow the roof off. I'd love it!

    It would certainly mean we'd could trade 1 or maybe even 2 back-end SP'ers. We might even still be under the luxury limit by doing so.

    [/QUOTE]


    Looks like the new posting system w/ 20mil max bid will drive the payouts to the player much higher, which will be a bigger salary cap hit for teams. If I'm interpeting it correctly if multiple teams place 20 mil bid on Tanaka [if posted] then Tanaka will be able to chose the team and deal he prefers ? In essance a bidding war. Would think in this case  20 mil per for Tanaka not unrealistic, not sure I would want to invest so heavily in someone who has not pitched in MLB or been proven? Don't think RS need to be desperate like other teams are and take such a high risk move w/ the depth of talent in the minors. While IMO Tanaka will be succesful in MLB, not sure the risk - reward for RS in there?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If it takesd $20M to get tanaka, then I'd have to think long and hard about trading Dempster & peavy to make budget room, but I do see it as an upgrade.

    [/QUOTE]


    Just not sure investing that amount of $ for that amount of years isn't what got this franchise in the trouble it just recently escaped, and while we both agree Tanaka will be a good player. How Good? Darvish Good or Dice K Good, thats the what I worry about. Just think safer bet is to let Owens / Raunado / Webster / Barnes develope and get better from within. If Ben goes Tanaka route better hope he's Darvish good! Sounds like we're talking a 100-140 mil investment for a player who never pitched a inning in MLB. These ard the type of moves if they backfire can cause havoc on a roster for many yrs, just not sure RS with there depth need to roll the dice so to speak?

    [/QUOTE]


    Base salary of 15M + incentives. He can make 20M, but he has to really earn the last 5M. 6 year deal. Hows that sound?

    [/QUOTE]


    and if he turns out to be Dice K or worse Hidecki Irabu or Kei Igawa. Then how does that deal look? RS have to much depth to make a move like that. If your the Yanks short on player developement and tons of $, its a move worth making. Just not sure its a move RS should make. and I believe Tanaka will be something in between Darvish and Dice K, just IMO too much risk thats not worth it if RS, with the talent they have in minors.

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Tanaka looks like the kind of breakthrough player that only comes around once in a while. Darvish has definitely panned out. The team that signs Tanaka probably is in the playoffs next year IMO. He's that important. Look what Kuroda did for the Yanks last year. Carried them on his freaking back all year and they almost got in mainly because of him! Add Tanaka to that rotation and you might as well pencil the Yanks in the playoffs right now.

    This off season has been very ho hum so far. We have not improved. We haven't even come close to improving. Will it be enough?

    [/QUOTE]


    He was part of the reason they missed the playoffs. He was nothing short of terrible in Aug/Sept

    in 10 games he was 1-7. he did go about 6IP per game, but with a 5.40ERA 71 H 41R gave up 8HR and batters had an .837OPS against.

    Kuroda has been a solid and reliable pitcher, but he fell off a cliff last year.

    Our bullpen has improved and at some point you have to let some of the "kids" play. Offseason isnt over yet. still early december. hang in there.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Gomes and carp arent redundant. On is a RHH the other is LH. Gomes is strictly a LF'er where Carp can play 1b if needed also. If anything Carp and Nava are redundant. I also wouldnt just assume Middy cant play 1b this year. Hes never done it and Im sure they arent just going to throw him in there. he could possibly learn the position at some point, but you can just include him in there. its unreslistic this year.

    Middy played 1B a game in 2013. He also practiced there some during the season, but your point is well taken. I feel that if Middy works out this winter at 1B and sring training, he could become a fine 1Bman very quickly, but I agree, it is no sure bet.

    Yes, Nava and Carp might be more redundant than Gomes and Carp, but I don't see Nava being traded. If we do trade Gomes, we may lose the platoon advantage in LF, but Carp does hit lefties much better than Nava, and Gomes did not do as well against LHPs as expected in 2013. Carp actually has better numbers vs LHPs than RHPs over his MLB career, although one sample size is too small to use as a projection tool.

    Career:

    Carp vs LHPs .792 (685 PAs)

    Carp vs RHPs .779 (166 PAs)

    Note: Gomes hit .795 vs LHPs in 2013, but is career .859 and had some great numbers vs lefties from 2010-2012.

     

    I think a couple complimentary pieces like you mentioned at the end is what they will do. UOF'er, and UIF'er Depending on the return and/or the Tanaka situation, we could deal a starter too.

    Signing Tanaka would blow the roof off. I'd love it!

    It would certainly mean we'd could trade 1 or maybe even 2 back-end SP'ers. We might even still be under the luxury limit by doing so.

    [/QUOTE]


    Looks like the new posting system w/ 20mil max bid will drive the payouts to the player much higher, which will be a bigger salary cap hit for teams. If I'm interpeting it correctly if multiple teams place 20 mil bid on Tanaka [if posted] then Tanaka will be able to chose the team and deal he prefers ? In essance a bidding war. Would think in this case  20 mil per for Tanaka not unrealistic, not sure I would want to invest so heavily in someone who has not pitched in MLB or been proven? Don't think RS need to be desperate like other teams are and take such a high risk move w/ the depth of talent in the minors. While IMO Tanaka will be succesful in MLB, not sure the risk - reward for RS in there?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    If it takesd $20M to get tanaka, then I'd have to think long and hard about trading Dempster & peavy to make budget room, but I do see it as an upgrade.

    [/QUOTE]


    Just not sure investing that amount of $ for that amount of years isn't what got this franchise in the trouble it just recently escaped, and while we both agree Tanaka will be a good player. How Good? Darvish Good or Dice K Good, thats the what I worry about. Just think safer bet is to let Owens / Raunado / Webster / Barnes develope and get better from within. If Ben goes Tanaka route better hope he's Darvish good! Sounds like we're talking a 100-140 mil investment for a player who never pitched a inning in MLB. These ard the type of moves if they backfire can cause havoc on a roster for many yrs, just not sure RS with there depth need to roll the dice so to speak?

    [/QUOTE]


    Base salary of 15M + incentives. He can make 20M, but he has to really earn the last 5M. 6 year deal. Hows that sound?

    [/QUOTE]


    and if he turns out to be Dice K or worse Hidecki Irabu or Kei Igawa. Then how does that deal look? RS have to much depth to make a move like that. If your the Yanks short on player developement and tons of $, its a move worth making. Just not sure its a move RS should make. and I believe Tanaka will be something in between Darvish and Dice K, just IMO too much risk thats not worth it if RS, with the talent they have in minors.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I guess you have to trust the scouts and place a value on him that the organization is comfortable with. They have a ton of $$ off the books after 2014, then more after 2015, so 15M wouldnt be a big hit. He looks to be the real deal. Thats a nasty splitter.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    Boom, I know my memory is bad so this might be senility speaking.  But I don't recall you being so animated as this winter ever before!  You are pedal to the metal right now.  I think you've said we've got most of the pieces so we should strike while the iron is hot...I wouldn't mind Tanaka at all, but I'm a little dubious the RS are presently going for that kind of deal.  I guess we'll see.  I really like how agressive you want to be and how positive you are.  No demure Polly sitting on the sidelines this winter...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We have 3 youngsters starting this year.

    Here's a list of ages and 2013 innings of our youngsters:

    25 Lava  164 at C

    25 Holt    160  (152 at 3B, 8 at 2B)

    24 Middy 811 (798 at 3B, 9 at 1B, 4 at 2B)

    23 Iggy   531  (279 at 3B, 240 at SS, 12 at 2B)

    23 JBJ    242  (146 in CF & 2 in RF)

    20 Bogey 110 (53 at SS, 57 at 3B plus playoff innings at 3B)

    I'm not trying to say 2014 is going to rely equally on youngsters; obviously we are going to rely more on them next year, but then again, they will be a year older and more experienced.

    We had over 2,000 innings by the youngsters in 2013. We may not see Lava or Holt in 2014, and Iggy is gone.

    If we get 1,000 innings each from Bogey, JBJ and Middy, it would just be a 50% increase over the total innings by youngsters in 2013. 

    One could argue that Middy is not a youngster anymore as he turns 26 next season and has over 620 professional games. Bogey looks to be a very mature youngster, so I'm not too worried about him wilting under the Boston spot light. JBJ seems like the only "raw talent" out there as a FT'er, although I certainly can see 2 or 3 of these guys struggling in 2014.

    This is another reason I'd like to see us get 2 more players:

    1) A veteran defensive SS. He could play late innings as a defensive replacement that would also allow Bogey some rest, so he could start more games. This wpick-up would also provide insurance against a bad season by Middy, as we could slide Bogey to 3B and start the vet at SS.

    2) A good defesnive CF'er who can hit lefties very well (like Ruggiano?). This could take some pressure of JBJ, if he struggles out of the gate. It could end up being a platoon, if JBJ struggles only against LHPs (which is more likely than struggling vs RHPs).

    I know I have suggested trading Gomes or Carp, and we almost have to if we get a CF'er, unless that CF'er can start in AAA. I have also suggested trading Dempster or Peavy to free up budget space for this winter and or next July, but there is no rush to do that.

    I'd look to trade Gomes, but I think it will be Carp (if anyone) for that CF'er or SS. Then, I'd try and trade some blocked prospects like Coyle, Butler, or maybe Alex Wilson or Steven Wright, or 2 or more of these guys for a decent back-up SS or platoon type CF'er.

    It's nothing major.

     

    On the major front, I would kick the tire on Tanaka. If we win the bidding war, we could deal Peavy and or Dempster and still be under the budget limit, while strengthening the here and now as well as our future rotation outlook. I think this kid is the real deal.

     

    That being said, I have no issues with what Ben has done so far. I'd prefer Salty at $21M/3 over AJ Pierzynski, but the one year deal has its advantages. I love the Mujica signing, and Badenhop might raise some eyebrows as well.

    Yes, losing Ellsbury will hurt badly. His speed should not be underestimated, but the guy was our 9th best OPS guy in 2013. There's no way he was worth even close to $153M. Losing Drew will hurt our SS defense, but Bogey could easily outhit what our SSs gave us in 2013.

    I know we cannot expect perfect health in 2014. We had pretty good luck with inkuries in 2013, despite the loss of Buch for much of the season, but here's a positive outlook on 2014:

    2013 Position and positional OPS/ 2014 positive (perhaps "pink glasses" outlook)

    C   .787 / AJ P had an OPS of .773 from '12 to '13 (Salty: .774) 

    1B .841 / Napoli has a 3 year trend of big years: '08 .960, '11 1.046, &'14?)

    2B .786 / Pedey will be 30 in '14. He had OPS over .860 3 times from '08-'11 

    3B .683 / '12 Middy shows up (.835), but even the '13 Middy (.696) is better.

    SS .771 / Might be hard for a rookie SS to top .771, but with Bogey ...

    LF .790 / Injuries forced the planned Nava/Gomes platoon off schedule as

                     they only started in LF 121 games. If we can stick to a true L/R

                     platoon, take a look at these 2010-2013 splits:

                                 Vs RHPs: .833 Nava

                                 Vs LHPs: .874 Gomes

    CF .774 / I doubt JBJ tops .774, but if we pick up a nice platoon CF'er maybe close.

    RF .786 / More games by Shane (.801) could raise this number.

    DH .958 / Papi may decline, but it's not a stretch to hope for a 4th straight .950+ 

    PH .923 / This will be hard to duplicate, but with Gomes or Nava & Carp...

     

    It's not likely all these good things will happen at once, but we don't need all of them to occur at once.

     

    The pitching staff looks better on paper:

    1) A full season of Buch

    2) A full season of Peavy

    3) Full seasons from Workman and Britton

    4) Full seasons from Morales and Miller

    5) Full season of Uehara as the closer

    6) No Hanrahan, Bailey or Aceves as closers and whatever

    7) Add Mujica

    8) Add Badenhop

    9) Several good prospects banging on the door:

            Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, Hinojosa & maybe even Owens

     

    Again, 100% health is not going to happen, but with the depth of this team, I think we can handle injuries better than almost every other MLB team.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I guess you have to trust the scouts and place a value on him [Tanaka]  that the organization is comfortable with. They have a ton of $$ off the books after 2014, then more after 2015, so 15M wouldnt be a big hit. He looks to be the real deal. Thats a nasty splitter.

     

    I agree. Trust the scouts, and my guess is they will be  very high on this kid.

    I understand the high risk involved, but with Lester, Peavy and Dempster all in their last year, and Lackey 2 away, I don't trust our prospects to fill all those slots.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but with the posting fee reduced to "only" $20mil, isn't it possible that Tanaka stays at home in 2014?

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, great breakdown position by position. you know I'm not a numbers guy, but here's my non-numeric take on 2013 vs. 2014...

    C) I see an offensive push or slight improvement. I think the slight improvement comes from a healthy Ross all year with Salty vs AJ being pretty equal. Ditto for defense.

    1b) No reason to think this year should be any different, solid performance mixed with lots of K's.

    2b) I look for a little offensive bump from a healthier Pedey.

    3b) Call me crazy, but I look for big improvement from Middlebrooks (.270, 30, 100) as he continues to mature. And as his o improves so will his d.

    ss) I think Bogey is the real deal and before the year is over could be in the three spot in the order. I wouldn't be surprised by .300, 20, 90 numbers. Defensively he will be no Drew, but ok.

    lf) We will be hard-pressed to exceed last year's production. I look for better numbers from Gomes but a little coming down to earth for Nava. Hope I'm wrong.

    cf) Bradley will have an OBP of around .325-.340 and coupled with his defense will be an adequate replacement for Ells. In spite of the ho-hum attitude around here in regards to his departure (and I admit that the Yankee salary is absurd) he will be sorely missed offensively.

    rf) Here again a drop-off will not surprise me.

    dh) Nothing in 2013 indicates that Papi is aging. And this year he will start in April. The dh "position" is a great way to prolong a career.

    sp) Really, along with the pen, the team's core strength. No reason to think otherwise this year and depth is unbelievable, the best I can remember in 60 years of fandom! I can see double-digit win totals and more from Lester, Lackey, Buck, Peavy and Doubie.

    rp) Better and healthier than last year. I don't expect Uehara to duplicate 2013, but there's much more depth to ease his burden. Getting Miller back could be huge. 

    depth) I think before the 2014 season starts we will have moved Dempster, Lavarnway, Carp & Morales, and those four should allow us to pick up a quality b/u centerfielder (maybe that fast guy who finished the season with us who's name I can't remember) who hits right-handed and a uif who maybe hits left-handed. Could even be Drew if we move enough money. Depth, outside of the pitching staff, is easily found. Depth within a pitching staff is a godsend, and this pitching staff is loaded and deep.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but with the posting fee reduced to "only" $20mil, isn't it possible that Tanaka stays at home in 2014?

    [/QUOTE]

    There was talk the team would not allow Tanaka to leave for just $20M, but I doubt they leave that much on the table.

    The new system makes it more likely Tanaka gets paid much more, since all the teams that bid the $20M will be able to bargain against each other driving up the price.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but with the posting fee reduced to "only" $20mil, isn't it possible that Tanaka stays at home in 2014?

    [/QUOTE]

    There was talk the team would not allow Tanaka to leave for just $20M, but I doubt they leave that much on the table.

    The new system makes it more likely Tanaka gets paid much more, since all the teams that bid the $20M will be able to bargain against each other driving up the price.

    [/QUOTE]

    I admit to being in the dark on this Moon. Can his Japanese team simply say "no you're not going" if they can't cash in more?

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedSoxDOrtiz. Show RedSoxDOrtiz's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but with the posting fee reduced to "only" $20mil, isn't it possible that Tanaka stays at home in 2014?



    There was talk the team would not allow Tanaka to leave for just $20M, but I doubt they leave that much on the table.

    The new system makes it more likely Tanaka gets paid much more, since all the teams that bid the $20M will be able to bargain against each other driving up the price.

    [/QUOTE]

    I admit to being in the dark on this Moon. Can his Japanese team simply say "no you're not going" if they can't cash in more?

    [/QUOTE]


    They can and they have two more years of control of the player, so they could let him play next year and cash in on his drawing power and post him next year and still make the same $20 million posting fee.  That is exactly what the team is threatening to do right now and they were the only team in Japan to vote against the new posting fee structures because they were set to get about $60 million by estimates.  The team he is on over there is considered a small market team and that is something to consider. 

    If they can have the best pitcher in the league back on the team for a full year, get the production from him again... they are all but guarenteed to get the same posting fee even if the guy gets injured unless it is a shoulder injury.  It is a gamble that they would have to consider to maximize the value out of an asset.

    It would be the same thing as the Rays shopping Price right now.  Yes they have two years of control, but they want to sell out on him at his peak before he starts to lose value.  The difference over there is that there is now a limit and they will get the same money next year to post him.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Thanks Papi

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, great breakdown position by position. you know I'm not a numbers guy, but here's my non-numeric take on 2013 vs. 2014...

    That was my "pink glasses" outlook, not my actual projections, but it does show the potential gains we can make at several positions to offset the projected losses at others.

     

    C) I see an offensive push or slight improvement. I think the slight improvement comes from a healthy Ross all year with Salty vs AJ being pretty equal. Ditto for defense.

    I think Salty would have had a better offensive year with Boston in 2014 than AJ will have, but I think AJ will be slightly better on defense and maybe significantly better handling the staff. I agree that Ross being healthy could be a big boost.

     

    1b) No reason to think this year should be any different, solid performance mixed with lots of K's.

    I expect better from Napoli in 2014, but close enough to call it a push, since maybe Carp was a bit above his head.

     

    2b) I look for a little offensive bump from a healthier Pedey.

    Agree, and it could be a big bump. He's at that age where players have their career seasons.

     

    3b) Call me crazy, but I look for big improvement from Middlebrooks (.270, 30, 100) as he continues to mature. And as his o improves so will his d.

    This one is the hardest to call (other than maybe JBJ), but I am optimistic Middy can rebound.

     

    ss) I think Bogey is the real deal and before the year is over could be in the three spot in the order. I wouldn't be surprised by .300, 20, 90 numbers. Defensively he will be no Drew, but ok.

    I think Bogey is below average on defense right now. I believe he is the real deal and will be a very special player as he gains more experience. He may crack the .800 OPS this year, but we shouldn't put too much pressure on this kid, eben though he seemed to handle the WS pretty well.

     

    lf) We will be hard-pressed to exceed last year's production. I look for better numbers from Gomes but a little coming down to earth for Nava. Hope I'm wrong.

    I actually expected better in LF in 2013. Gomes had killed lefties from 2010-2012, and Nava has always been very good vs righties. However, we ended up having to play Nava in RF and even 1B to the point where the L/R Nava/Gomes platoon in LF only took place 121 times or about 75% of the time. Make it 100% and we shoudl see both of their overall numbers improve.

    Although Nava did better than expected when he started his 25 games vs LHPs, and Gomes did better than expected when he started 22 games vs RHPs, I don't expect that trend to continue in 2014. These two should only start vs the wrong handed pitcher in emergencies or vs certain pitchers they have good histories against. A straight platoon should bring better overall 2014 LF numbers in my opinion.

     

    cf) Bradley will have an OBP of around .325-.340 and coupled with his defense will be an adequate replacement for Ells. In spite of the ho-hum attitude around here in regards to his departure (and I admit that the Yankee salary is absurd) he will be sorely missed offensively.

    I think JBJ is already a plus defender. He may not have the speed of Jacoby, but he should get better breaks on the balls, have better instincts, and throw much better from day one. On offense, he has had good OBP and SLG numbers in the minors, but I do not expect much in 2014. The point is that Ellsbury was under .780 OPS in 2013, so the drop off may not be much in that area of offense, but admittedly, the loss of speed at the top of the line-up is going to hurt.

     

    rf) Here again a drop-off will not surprise me.

    Agreed. I'm just hoping for health and more great defense by Shane and less of Nava being forced out of LF.

     

    dh) Nothing in 2013 indicates that Papi is aging. And this year he will start in April. The dh "position" is a great way to prolong a career.

    Agreed. It's really not a hard position, and Papi has been a DH a long long time. He's in better shape and weighs less, so a healthy 2014 is not a stretch.

     

    sp) Really, along with the pen, the team's core strength. No reason to think otherwise this year and depth is unbelievable, the best I can remember in 60 years of fandom! I can see double-digit win totals and more from Lester, Lackey, Buck, Peavy and Doubie.

    Peavy is better than Dempster

      Peavy 4.04  1.160 WHIP

      Dempster 4.64  1.453

    Dempster is better than what we had last year as starter depth:

      Dempster 4.64  1.4453 (29 GS)

      Webster  8.59  1.807 in 10 GS

      Aceves   4.45  1.780 in 6 GS

      Workman 2.45  1.036 in 3 GS

      Wright/Morales 7.50 1.350 in 2 GS

      

    rp) Better and healthier than last year. I don't expect Uehara to duplicate 2013, but there's much more depth to ease his burden. Getting Miller back could be huge. 

    Uehara may not duplicate 2013, but he has had 3 straight excellent seasons, and he should be the closer all year long, so even if he does worse, the fact that he should close wire to wire may offset the overall downturn and make it a plus. Having a capable closer in Mujica helps keep Tazawa and Breslow in their suited roles as set-up men. Yes, Miller's return can be huge, even with all the lefties we have already.

     

    depth) I think before the 2014 season starts we will have moved Dempster, Lavarnway, Carp & Morales, and those four should allow us to pick up a quality b/u centerfielder (maybe that fast guy who finished the season with us who's name I can't remember) who hits right-handed and a uif who maybe hits left-handed. Could even be Drew if we move enough money. Depth, outside of the pitching staff, is easily found. Depth within a pitching staff is a godsend, and this pitching staff is loaded and deep.

    I think we move Dempster or Morales, but not both.

    I'd rather move Gomes than Carp, but think Carp is all but gone.

    Lava will not bring much in return, so we may hold onto him as a possible future DH and emergency 3rd catcher.

     

Share