A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 5m

    If the likes of Jason Vargas can get four years and $32 million, the #RedSox have valuable trade chips in Dempster, Peavy and Lackey

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon et al, I don't think Beltran is the right guy at this point.  I was reading your views two pages back.  A plus that his power would be away from first base, but as you infer his age and ability tie up the other two outfield slots.  Last winter you were talking about building the team to be competitive in 2014 and 2015 and beyond.  I think we have all the resources and depth at the major and minor league to go get Stanton, a type of guy we don't have on the farm.  I think he's the only guy on my wish list this offseason.  He's a great young player with power who would help us for ten years, and I've read he has a good attitude.  

    Polly want a Stanton, Polly want a Stanton.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I like Stanton too. Affordable, and a legit DH when Papi leaves.

    However, the Marlins said that they will not trade him.


    On the other hand, the Marlins have so many holes that a package of our seasoned players and prospects could upgrade many positions.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to J-BAY's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 5m

    If the likes of Jason Vargas can get four years and $32 million, the #RedSox have valuable trade chips in Dempster, Peavy and Lackey

    [/QUOTE]


    I was thinking this also...along with "Holy #%@$, I'm glad we're not looking for a SP in free agency this winter"...

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to J-BAY's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 5m

    If the likes of Jason Vargas can get four years and $32 million, the #RedSox have valuable trade chips in Dempster, Peavy and Lackey

    [/QUOTE]

    People who think we will have to pay most of Dempster's

    deal should look closely at this 4 year signing.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    In response to J-BAY's comment:

    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 5m

    If the likes of Jason Vargas can get four years and $32 million, the #RedSox have valuable trade chips in Dempster, Peavy and Lackey

    People who think we will have to pay most of Dempster's

    deal should look closely at this 4 year signing.

     

    For what it's worth, 36-year-old Ryan Dempster this season posted a WAR* of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts, and Steamer** projects a 2014 WAR of 0.9 in 40 games, including 10 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    Despite an injury, 30-year-old Jason Vargas this season posted a WAR of 1.5 in 24 starts and Steamer projects a 2014 WAR of 2.0 in 32 starts:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8044&position=P

    Dempster is owed $13.25 million next year in the final season of his contract while Vargas will have an average AAV of $8 million under his reported four-year contract.

    The length of the Vargas contract represents a risk, although with the influx of new television revenues the salary may look like a bargain*** come February and in later years (or not).

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

    ** http://steamerprojections.com/blog/about/

    *** Vargas earned $8.5 million this year in his final arbitration season

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    In response to J-BAY's comment:

    Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 5m

    If the likes of Jason Vargas can get four years and $32 million, the #RedSox have valuable trade chips in Dempster, Peavy and Lackey

    People who think we will have to pay most of Dempster's

    deal should look closely at this 4 year signing.

     

    For what it's worth, 36-year-old Ryan Dempster this season posted a WAR* of 1.3 in 32 games, including 29 starts, and Steamer** projects a WAR of 0.9 in 2014:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=517&position=P

    Despite an injury, 30-year-old Jason Vargas this season posted a WAR of 2.0 in 24 starts and Steamer projects a WAR of 2.0 in 2014:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8044&position=P

    Dempster is owed $13.25 million next year in the final year of his contract while Vargas will have an average AAV of $8 million under his reported four-year contract.

    The length of the Vargas contract represents a risk, although with the influx of new television revenues the salary may look like a bargain come February and in later years (or not).

    * Wins Above Replacement as reported at FanGraphs

    ** http://steamerprojections.com/blog/about/

    [/QUOTE]



    I see 1.5 WAR for Vargas on his fangraph's page.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8044&position=P

     

    WAR  Demp  Varg

    '08    4.8        n/a

    '09    3.6        0.3

    '10    2.9        2.7

    '11    2.6        2.2

    '12    3.1        0.8

    '13    1.3        1.5

     

    2012-2013 combined:

    Dempster  (342 Inn)  20-17  4.00  (WAR 4.7)

    J Vargas    (367 Inn)  23-19  3.92  (WAR 2.4)

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    We still would have to pick up some of Dempster's salary if we traded him. A team near the cap isn't going to want him and a lower salary team won't want to pay him that much. It does depend how desparate they are though doesn't it!

    We could wait until next Spring and see what we have. unload whoever we want then. The salary cap issue kicks in the moment spring training ends though if I remember correctly. We probably will want to move someone by then. But if we have several injuries maybe not.

    All that said, I think they probably trade one starter this winter. Teams want to plan ahead.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, I corrected the 2013 WAR for Jason Vargas before you posted.

    The key is the projected production going forward for 36-year-old Ryan Dempster and 30-year-old Jason Vargas. Steamer is the only publicly available projection I've found and it suggests that Dempster would cost 65 percent more for less than half the production. Other projections might tell a different story.

    I've now added the projected number of games and starts, which I admit slant the WAR projections in favor of Vargas.

    [/QUOTE]

    I would project slightly better numbers for Vargas in 2014 as well, but I ask you, how much would Vargas make for a one year deal?

    $10-12M?

    If Vargas is worth $12M/1, then Dempster is probably worth $9-11M to somebody out there desperate for a SP.

    I'd love to trade Dempster and only have to pay $1-3M of his deal. That extra $10-12M could help us fill a big hole.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    We still would have to pick up some of Dempster's salary if we traded him. A team near the cap isn't going to want him and a lower salary team won't want to pay him that much. It does depend how desparate they are though doesn't it!

    We could wait until next Spring and see what we have. unload whoever we want then. The salary cap issue kicks in the moment spring training ends though if I remember correctly. We probably will want to move someone by then. But if we have several injuries maybe not.

    All that said, I think they probably trade one starter this winter. Teams want to plan ahead.

    [/QUOTE]

    Almost any contending team could use Dempster, but I agree, not many fit the salary demands.

    I think we may see some very marginal FA SP'ers get some hefty salaries as desperation sets in. Vargas could end up being a steal by future 2013-2014 winter standards.

    Without any health issues, except age, some GM may surpise us with the numbers offered.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    There was an interesting comment by Farrel today on the radio, as was reported on soxprospects this afternoon. Something to the effect of JBJ being maybe in CF if they have more power from the corner OF's. What does that mean do you think?

    Beltran?

    Choo? 

    A trade option?

    What does he mean by that. Was it a slip?

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    To me that might mean that plan A is to put Victorino in CF. And more pop in the corner OF slots.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Granderson?

    Cruz?

    Morse?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There was an interesting comment by Farrel today on the radio, as was reported on soxprospects this afternoon. Something to the effect of JBJ being maybe in CF if they have more power from the corner OF's. What does that mean do you think?

    Beltran?

    Choo? 

    A trade option?

    What does he mean by that. Was it a slip?

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Beltran is plan A.

    Napoli is plan B.

    I'm not sure they can do plan A + plan B, since that would mean we go over the limit or do without an out of house catcher, RP, and utility IF'er (unless we trade Dempster or Peavy).

    I'm not sure about the hit our defense takes if we go with Nava at 1B (No Naps) or RF (Shane to CF). Our IF could be worse defensively without Drew/Iggy at SS and Napoli at 1B. 

    Beltran could actually be better in LF than the Nava/Gomes platoon, but moving SV to CF and nava to RF hurts.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Actually I would like Granderson if we can get him reasonably.  But I'm not coming off Stanton until someone can prove to me he wouldn't be good for the RS...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Mike Morse would make a lot of sense to me. But then what would we do with Gomes unless Morse was primarily the 1st baseman? If we wanted a stronger lineup against LH pitching sometimes a platoon at first with Carp against RH pitching and Morse against LH pitching would be decent. In LF go with the Nava / Gomes platoon. Maybe add Rajai Davis for a platoon with JBJ and as a safety mneasure in case JBJ doesn't succeed? Davis has had decent splits until the last year or 2. 

    Saves a ton of money and would be a decent approach overall if they want to spend elsewhere.

    Would that platoon maybe even be better than Napoli as almost the full time guy?

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I like the Morse option. In place of Napoli. He probably costs about 1/2 as much and might put up comparable numbers in Fenway. Tough to say for sure of course but I would certainly talk to the scouts and look at the option.

    One thing we have learned is that Seattle is the place power hitters go to die. Often when they are rescued from there they blossom.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Morse saves money plus gives the team more flexibility in using him in the OF sometimes or at DH with Ortiz at 1st or just as a straight platoon with Carp and Nava. If Gomes gets hurt a guy like Morse would be a huge help. I might even want him more than Rajai Davis. A close call though to me.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Choo fits the Redsox in so many ways guys. If they spend big money I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's on Choo. They love that OBP. He protects Papi very well. He has some pop and is good enough defensively for RF, enabling Victorino to slide over to CF. He's a significant bat. A strong case could be made that he would be our 2nd best bat in the lineup. And he could even lead off if they want.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If you are going to lose a pick, why not make it for a top guy like Choo and sign him for 4-5 years? He has been consistently solid. The guy has Fenway written all over him. Look at his hit chart:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/shin-soo-choo/hitchart/288287?q=shin-soo-choo

    Over time he could slide over to LF. He's a very safe sign. 

    Prediction: Choo is our big sign of the off season.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from mattc355. Show mattc355's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    _

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Actually I would like Granderson if we can get him reasonably.  But I'm not coming off Stanton until someone can prove to me he wouldn't be good for the RS...

    [/QUOTE]

    Maybe I'm too high on guys like cecchini, Ranaudo and Owens, but it would take at least 2 of these guys plus another 2-3 good prospects to even get the Marlins to talk trade. They may even insist on Bogey before evn answering the phone.

    I really like Stanton, but value our future with our farm and projected extra draft picks.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Choo fits the Redsox in so many ways guys. If they spend big money I wouldn't be at all surprised if it's on Choo. They love that OBP. He protects Papi very well. He has some pop and is good enough defensively for RF, enabling Victorino to slide over to CF. He's a significant bat. A strong case could be made that he would be our 2nd best bat in the lineup. And he could even lead off if they want.

    [/QUOTE]

    I like Choo more than Beltran, but do not want to move Victorino to CF.

    If we got Choo to play LF in in 2014 and moved Nava to 1B, we'd have a lot invested in JBJ, Bogey, Middy and Nava to perform well.

    If we got Choo for LF and Napoli, I'd have no problem with JBJ in CF. We could maybe trade Gomes and have Nava to rotate between LF, RF and 1B vs RHPs. He could play RF with Shane in CF a few games as well. In a sense he'd be playing vs RHPs almost every game as JBJ, Victorino, Napoli and Choo get some rest or are benched in JBJ's case.

    Let's say we face 115 RH'd starters, Nava could start in all 115 of them like this:

    CF 75 for JBJ (via RF as Victorino slides to CF)

    1B 20 for Napoli

    RF 10 for Victorino

    LF 10 for Choo

    I'm not sure I like the idea of jerking Victorino from RF to CF half the time, but adding Choo's high OBP to the leadoff slot would be a big gain.

    My guess is if we get Choo, we'd move Nava to 1B or trade him rather than jerk guys around left and right.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I like the Morse option. In place of Napoli. He probably costs about 1/2 as much and might put up comparable numbers in Fenway. Tough to say for sure of course but I would certainly talk to the scouts and look at the option.

    One thing we have learned is that Seattle is the place power hitters go to die. Often when they are rescued from there they blossom.

    [/QUOTE]

    You like Morse more than Hart?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If you are going to lose a pick, why not make it for a top guy like Choo and sign him for 4-5 years? He has been consistently solid. The guy has Fenway written all over him. Look at his hit chart:

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/shin-soo-choo/hitchart/288287?q=shin-soo-choo

    Over time he could slide over to LF. He's a very safe sign. 

    Prediction: Choo is our big sign of the off season.

    [/QUOTE]

    Choo would obviously help the Sox, but I don't see the Sox being a serious player at all for several reasons:

    He is very likely going to get a 100+ million dollar contract and I don't think the Sox are going to spend another 100+ million on an outfielder from outside the organization anytime soon, especially one who is on the wrong side of 30.  

    Over the last 2 years covering 463 plate appearances, he's hit .207 against lefties. If he shouldn't sit against lefties now, how soon will it be?

    While he can technically play center & right, his defensive metrics aren't good. While I'm not a big believer in defensive metrics, this guy has looked bad to the naked eye in the outfield.  

    Over the last 2 years, he's stolen 41 bases, but he's been caught 18 times.  That's not good at all and unlikely to improve as he turns 32 in July.  

    His wife & kids live in Arizona, so my guess that if all things are equal, he'd want to sign with a team that trains there, although I've never heard that was a deal breaker as it is with some guys. There may also be some intangibles that would be a concern, but I won't post them as it may just be unfair speculation on my part.

    Overall, my guess is that the Sox will never seriously consider him at all, and in my opinion, rightfully so. 

     

     

     

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