A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Moon, you know I'm partial to catchers, but I like Vasquez an awful lot. I place more value on the position so therefore I value him more than most any other position player unless it's that rare potential super-star like Bogey. Lots of people like Swihart but I'm not sold. I could see him as a change of position guy at some point as he's pretty small for the day-to-day rigors of catching at the MLB level. Time will tell. Cecchini should also be a mainstay in our everyday lineup by next season at the latest and at a position to be determined. His ultimate position may be determined more by the development of others rather than his own development. I see him as more likely to be patrolling left field or first base long-term. I would rank them in this order, Bogey, Vasquez, Cecchini, Bradley, Swihart and I've never seen Betts.

    As for the pitchers, I like Workman and Webster more than Barnes or Renaudo and Owens better than any of them, but he's still a year or more away. So I would rank Owens, Workman, Webster, Barnes, Renaudo and haven't seen Ball. Looking forward to seeing them all in less than three months in the Fort.

    [/QUOTE]

    Certainly the young catchers in our organization are valued highly. I feel very confident that at least one out of Vazquez, Swihart and Denny will become more than a capable MLB starter.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Was Jose Iglesias the only player (or Boston farmhand) to lose his prospect* status after entering the 2013 season as a Red Sox prospect?

    The Red Sox farm system witnessed some fine individual performances this season, but the farm's ranking among other franchises was bolstered as well by its relative lack of graduated prospects. Highly regarded farm systems in Minnesota, Florida and Seattle suffered attrition with the graduations of at least eight prospects apiece. The Sox could face attritrion in 2014 if Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Drake Britton and/or Christian Vazquez emerge.

    * a widely held definition of a prospect is a player who at the MLB level has not exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or, before Sept. 1, 45 days of MLB service.

    [/QUOTE]


    The great thing is Boston doesnt have to rush guys to the show like the twins, Marlins and M's do. So while we will see more 21-22yo who may not be 100% "ready" from said teams, the Sox can wait until they are a little older and more prepared for MLB. They also can have control over them into their prime years insteam of watching them leave at age 27-28.

    We have another group of prospects at AA and A+ ready to move up, so Im not sure there will be much of a fal off, if any. Names like Henry Owens, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, and Luis Diaz to name a few. They are prospects, so anything can happen. But its a good problem to have when there is good talent throughout the system that you dont have to rush.

    [/QUOTE]


    Good points. But remember at some point you have to put them on the 40 man roster or subject them to the Rule 5 Draft. Moons point of packaging a few prospects for a player makes sense in this regard but you hate to get burned when dealing prospects because of team control and low cost of control. What you may see happen is RS being forced to dump a player like F.Morales for next to nothing, because of need to make room on the 40 man for others, while everyone knows Morales has talent and is still young, but RS can't wait forever for him to put it all together. It would be a shame if he blossomed elsewhere. But these are good problems to have. Think this is also reason RS are trying to keep contracts a short as possible in terms of yrs, makes for more roster flexibility moving forward.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Was Jose Iglesias the only player (or Boston farmhand) to lose his prospect* status after entering the 2013 season as a Red Sox prospect?

    The Red Sox farm system witnessed some fine individual performances this season, but the farm's ranking among other franchises was bolstered as well by its relative lack of graduated prospects. Highly regarded farm systems in Minnesota, Florida and Seattle suffered attrition with the graduations of at least eight prospects apiece. The Sox could face attritrion in 2014 if Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Drake Britton and/or Christian Vazquez emerge.

    * a widely held definition of a prospect is a player who at the MLB level has not exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or, before Sept. 1, 45 days of MLB service.

    [/QUOTE]

    All systems go through cyclical periods where the talent is lopsided towards the bottom or top.  Sometimes it's due to a team switching from drafting more or less high school kids and also teams just have good/bad drafts, a bit of luck into who pans out is in play as well.  The sox didn't accumulate the prospects they have now solely by sheer luck and just because a bunch of guys are set to graduate doesn't mean they don't have other guys moving up.  Doesn't mean our system will be as highly regarded in two years as it is now, but it also doesn't mean it won't.

    We have a very large group of high ceiling talent that could be top 100 talents.  I understand that is not a guarantee, but we also knew Xander Bogaerts and Garrin Cecchini were special before they broke onto the top 100 scene.  Guys like Margot, Rijo, Denney, Ball, Kukuk, Devers, Longhi really intrigue me and all have tremendous upside in the lower minors (amongst many others). Yes other teams have their own Margots and Balls as well but I like our track record of drafting and developing talent.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm fine with dealing a few kids, especially blocked ones.

    I agree with the ones you want to keep. My list of those I'd try hard to keep goes like this:

    A+ Bogey & Owens

    A  Cecchini, Ranaudo & Swihart

    A- JBJ, Betts, T Ball

    B+  Workman

    B Vazquez, Barnes

    B- Britton, Webster

     

    I could see putting Cecchini at A+ and maybe JBJ & Betts at A. Workman could also be under-rated here.

    [/QUOTE]


    IMO would rate Barnes as equal or possibly higher than Raunado. Barnes did struggle early last year [command of offspead], but not nearly as bad as Raunado did in 2012. Both reached AAA the same yr and Barnes is younger. Barnes did pitch 5.1 ip 3 hits 0 runs final start at AAA, to complete strong 2nd half. Good problem to have? probably splitting the hairs w/ 2 good young RHP starters w/ bright futures. But seem many have kind of forgotten about Barnes IMO, who was rated even higher than Owens or Raunado to start yr, but because of slow start seems not getting alot of attention. Be careful could be the 2014 surprise guy! 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I actually think Barnes has a chance of being the best pitcher in our system now ten years down the road.  I still have Owens ahead of him but not by much.  People are too quick to get low (and high) on a prospect.  No one cared about Raunados projection, stuff, tools etc ect when he had a bad season but now everyone is quick to speculate his future and slap a higher ceiling on him than most scouts.  I love Raunado, he was my draft binky a few years back but I think Barnes has better stuff.  Matt Barnes has the best fastball in our system and he can control it, so if nothing else were to develop for him (and there's almost no reason to assume his stuff won't develop to some degree at least) then he's easily a back end rotation, late inning reliever.  And while guys like Ball and Owens may have higher ceilings, you just can't say the same thing about them right now.  I actually think Barnes has the highest floor of our pitching prospects and a ceiling higher than most.  I'm glad that others realize his season was not all too bad, and finished strong and maintain that strength against better competition in Pawtucket.  

    Im a homer and always hope for the best in our prospects, but I'd like to think I give myself doses of reality as well.  I wouldn't be surprised or worried if Barnes goes through some adversity next year, but I'd be equally un surprised if he breaks into Boston by theey ears end.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    There seems to me to be a big drop off when you get down to A ball. Betts seems like the only guy who is highly likely to excel to me. Some of those guys like Longhi, Ball and Denney might end up being great or they could also end up being worthless. It's way too early to tell.

    The guys in AA ball and AAA ball though look to be as solid as any in the minors.

    I hope they chose to spenmd their money on real premium guys and allow some of the younger guys to get some PT like Bogaerts, Workman, Lavarnway, Britton, JBJ, even Cechinni. Webster, De Larosa by year end. Why not use them? It saves money and builds value. If some don't work out go on to plan B.

    This team is good enough to take some chances on young guys. Again, if they don't work out move on but give some of these guys a chance.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There seems to me to be a big drop off when you get down to A ball. Betts seems like the only guy who is highly likely to excel to me. Some of those guys like Longhi, Ball and Denney might end up being great or they could also end up being worthless. It's way too early to tell.

    The guys in AA ball and AAA ball though look to be as solid as any in the minors.

    I hope they chose to spenmd their money on real premium guys and allow some of the younger guys to get some PT like Bogaerts, Workman, Lavarnway, Britton, JBJ, even Cechinni. Webster, De Larosa by year end. Why not use them? It saves money and builds value. If some don't work out go on to plan B.

    This team is good enough to take some chances on young guys. Again, if they don't work out move on but give some of these guys a chance.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think most teams have that drop off, it's really hard to project guys below AA ball.  Every team has high upside guys down there.  But I still like the next wave of talent we have coming in, I understand guys like Ball and Denney and Margot have to show us more, but not every prospect in the lower minors can be Buxton.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

    There seems to me to be a big drop off when you get down to A ball. Betts seems like the only guy who is highly likely to excel to me. Some of those guys like Longhi, Ball and Denney might end up being great or they could also end up being worthless. It's way too early to tell.

    The guys in AA ball and AAA ball though look to be as solid as any in the minors.

    I hope they chose to spenmd their money on real premium guys and allow some of the younger guys to get some PT like Bogaerts, Workman, Lavarnway, Britton, JBJ, even Cechinni. Webster, De Larosa by year end. Why not use them? It saves money and builds value. If some don't work out go on to plan B.

    This team is good enough to take some chances on young guys. Again, if they don't work out move on but give some of these guys a chance.



    What about Luis Diaz and others listed below that were in A Ball this year?

     

    8. Swihart

    9. T. Ball

    10. Betts

    14. Margot

    15. B Johnson

    16. Stankiweicz

    19. Denny

    20. Rijo

    22. Diaz

    23. Buttrey

    24. Callahan

    25. Devers

    27. Coyle

    28. Kukuk

    31. Ramos

    32. de la Cruz

    33. Mercedes

    34. S Gomez

    35. Light

    36. McGrath

    37. Lin

    38. M Smith

    39. Littrell

    40. Longhi

    I'm not saying a bunch of names on this list jump out at me, but there is a lot of talent here. In a year or two, don't be surprised if several guys here are near the top of our prospect list.

    Plus, we will be adding several decent draftees to that level next spring.

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    A lot of teams don't even have one blue chip prospect.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    A lot of teams don't even have one blue chip prospect.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed. I guess my point is that many assume we have a ton of talent in A ball, maybe in part because the system is so strong right now in AA an above. I don't see any indication that the talent we had down in A ball beyond Swihart, Betts and Coyle is nearly as good as what we have at the higher levels. Last year's Greenville team was pretty miserble. I grant that the guys who were in rookie ball look pretty decent.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Was Jose Iglesias the only player (or Boston farmhand) to lose his prospect* status after entering the 2013 season as a Red Sox prospect?

    The Red Sox farm system witnessed some fine individual performances this season, but the farm's ranking among other franchises was bolstered as well by its relative lack of graduated prospects. Highly regarded farm systems in Minnesota, Florida and Seattle suffered attrition with the graduations of at least eight prospects apiece. The Sox could face attritrion in 2014 if Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Drake Britton and/or Christian Vazquez emerge.

    * a widely held definition of a prospect is a player who at the MLB level has not exceeded 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or, before Sept. 1, 45 days of MLB service.

    [/QUOTE]


    The great thing is Boston doesnt have to rush guys to the show like the twins, Marlins and M's do. So while we will see more 21-22yo who may not be 100% "ready" from said teams, the Sox can wait until they are a little older and more prepared for MLB. They also can have control over them into their prime years insteam of watching them leave at age 27-28.

    We have another group of prospects at AA and A+ ready to move up, so Im not sure there will be much of a fal off, if any. Names like Henry Owens, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, and Luis Diaz to name a few. They are prospects, so anything can happen. But its a good problem to have when there is good talent throughout the system that you dont have to rush.

    [/QUOTE]


    Good points. But remember at some point you have to put them on the 40 man roster or subject them to the Rule 5 Draft. Moons point of packaging a few prospects for a player makes sense in this regard but you hate to get burned when dealing prospects because of team control and low cost of control. What you may see happen is RS being forced to dump a player like F.Morales for next to nothing, because of need to make room on the 40 man for others, while everyone knows Morales has talent and is still young, but RS can't wait forever for him to put it all together. It would be a shame if he blossomed elsewhere. But these are good problems to have. Think this is also reason RS are trying to keep contracts a short as possible in terms of yrs, makes for more roster flexibility moving forward.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree with this as me and Moon had a discussion about it earlier in the year. Rule 5 players and some possible trades. Guys like Mookie Betts, that will be blocked in a couple (unless pedey goes down) years could be a big trade chip. Certain players wont be able to be protected, I understand that. Its a balancing act for sure. But the point being is we dont HAVE to add guys that arent ready like other teams.

    We are almost certain to lose a couple players because of that, but that just goes to prove what a strong Organization the Sox actually have. I like the short term, more $$ deals and trying to lock up some of our homegrown talent if we can. I really like the direction Ben is taking this team.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    A lot of teams don't even have one blue chip prospect.

    [/QUOTE]


    True. I just think you cant get too serious about a prospect until they prove themselves in AA.  But that doesnt mean they arent rated highly for their potential. I look at differnt things than just numbers in A Ball. They are learning the game, learning proper mechanics, new pitches, and all that. So I expect some numbers that might not look very desirable. by A+ you should see something and in AA is where they really start to get noticed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    A lot of teams don't even have one blue chip prospect.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed. I guess my point is that many assume we have a ton of talent in A ball, maybe in part because the system is so strong right now in AA an above. I don't see any indication that the talent we had down in A ball beyond Swihart, Betts and Coyle is nearly as good as what we have at the higher levels. Last year's Greenville team was pretty miserble. I grant that the guys who were in rookie ball look pretty decent.

    [/QUOTE]

    I am a bit of a homer too, and would like to think all the Manuel Margots of the world will turn into the next Xander Bogaerts when the reality is that just doesn't happen.  But we do have talent down there, our system could be weaker or just as strong depending on how they develop, and of course we add talent every year.  I hope the Sox continue to focus heavily on scouting and developing talent and try to keep the farm consistently strong. Are we going to be a top 3 system every year? no but if we could consistently remain in the top half I'd be happy. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    There seems to me to be a big drop off when you get down to A ball. Betts seems like the only guy who is highly likely to excel to me. Some of those guys like Longhi, Ball and Denney might end up being great or they could also end up being worthless. It's way too early to tell.

    The guys in AA ball and AAA ball though look to be as solid as any in the minors.

    I hope they chose to spenmd their money on real premium guys and allow some of the younger guys to get some PT like Bogaerts, Workman, Lavarnway, Britton, JBJ, even Cechinni. Webster, De Larosa by year end. Why not use them? It saves money and builds value. If some don't work out go on to plan B.

    This team is good enough to take some chances on young guys. Again, if they don't work out move on but give some of these guys a chance.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    What about Luis Diaz and others listed below that were in A Ball this year?

     

     

    8. Swihart

    9. T. Ball

    10. Betts

    14. Margot

    15. B Johnson

    16. Stankiweicz

    19. Denny

    20. Rijo

    22. Diaz

    23. Buttrey

    24. Callahan

    25. Devers

    27. Coyle

    28. Kukuk

    31. Ramos

    32. de la Cruz

    33. Mercedes

    34. S Gomez

    35. Light

    36. McGrath

    37. Lin

    38. M Smith

    39. Littrell

    40. Longhi

    I'm not saying a bunch of names on this list jump out at me, but there is a lot of talent here. In a year or two, don't be surprised if several guys here are near the top of our prospect list.

    Plus, we will be adding several decent draftees to that level next spring.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    All it takes is 1 big year next year and next thing you know your in the top 10 knocking on the door. Next year could be a Lin #37 [big $ Int FA] or Light # 35 / Buttrey #23 / or Denney #19 former high picks who have that big year that moves them into top 10, like Owens did with his big season last year. But the thing you have to like about RS system there seems to be ALOT of guys possible of making that jump. Other systems might be just a few names that fans can hope for this kind of jump. Its the depth of talent the RS have in the system that is most impressive, while most won't make it big, odds are in the RS favor w/ the total # of talented propects, that quite a few will.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    How many single A players are called "blue chip" on any team?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm not saying none of these other guys make it but there is really no one there which would be considered blue chip beyond Betts, Ball and Swihart. And it's too early to tell with Ball.

    I thought of Swihart being in AA ball as that is where he should start next year.

    [/QUOTE]

    A lot of teams don't even have one blue chip prospect.

    [/QUOTE]

    Agreed. I guess my point is that many assume we have a ton of talent in A ball, maybe in part because the system is so strong right now in AA an above. I don't see any indication that the talent we had down in A ball beyond Swihart, Betts and Coyle is nearly as good as what we have at the higher levels. Last year's Greenville team was pretty miserble. I grant that the guys who were in rookie ball look pretty decent.

    [/QUOTE]

    I like Luis Diaz, Rijo, johnson, Denny and Devers a lot.

    My guess is we are as strong as anyone else below the AA level.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    AJ in: Salty out.

    No Bailey and his ~$4M arb.

    No Kalish and his DLs.

     

    $30M minus what AJ gets to pay for a 1Bman, an insurance to JBJ, plus maybe a utility IF'er and another pen arm.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    AJ in: Salty out.

    No Bailey and his ~$4M arb.

    No Kalish and his DLs.

     

    $30M minus what AJ gets to pay for a 1Bman, an insurance to JBJ, plus maybe a utility IF'er and another pen arm.

    [/QUOTE]


    Word is that the Sox are looking to trade for a CF'er. They dont trust JBJ with the FT duties yet. Just a rumor though, so take it how you wish. They offered Ellsbury 5/100 from what I understand.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    AJ in: Salty out.

    No Bailey and his ~$4M arb.

    No Kalish and his DLs.

     

    $30M minus what AJ gets to pay for a 1Bman, an insurance to JBJ, plus maybe a utility IF'er and another pen arm.

    [/QUOTE]


    Word is that the Sox are looking to trade for a CF'er. They dont trust JBJ with the FT duties yet. Just a rumor though, so take it how you wish. They offered Ellsbury 5/100 from what I understand.

    [/QUOTE]

    I guess Rajai Davis is not an option.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Critter23. Show Critter23's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I'm good with the AJP deal--used to think he was a jerk, but I just checked his stats vs. Salty and was shocked to see how similar they were.  Doesn't strike out as much as Salty, pretty good defensively, doesn't grind as much as some of our guys do.  Won't hit as many HR's as Salty, but his pitchers have a better ERA.  Good SERA catcher,  Moon?  I like this in other ways too:  save some money for other needs, bridge to young catchers, we can can him in a year if we want to, and we get a draft pick for Salty right?  He's one of those guy you hate when he's on the other team but love when he's on yours.  They say he really wants to win, and I like a couple of guys on a team who can be a little "edgy."  I think I like this...but of course I liked Bobby V. too, and we all know how that turned out.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $13.25M Dempster (then FA)

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $8.25M AJ P (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    Sub TOTAL: ~$129M 

     

    Estimated Arbitration (2013 salary):

    $2.3M  Morales 3 of 3 ($1.49M)

    $2.2M  Miller 3 of 3 ($1.48M)

    $2.2M Badenhop 3 of 3 ($1.55M)

    $1.7M  Tazawa 1 of 3 ($0.82M)

    $1.6M  Carp 1 of 3 ($0.51M)

    Estimated Arb Total: $10M

    Estimated Pre-Arb Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava, Villarreal, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster,  Bradley, Beato, Berry, Bogaerts, Britton, Butler, Castellanos, de la Rosa, de la Torre, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:$141M 

    Add the player pension fee of about $10M and the $3.9M payment to the Dodgers... 

     

    Total Luxury Limit Budget for 2014: $165M

     

    This leaves about $24M to spend and still be below the limit.

     

     

    2014 FAs:

    $13M Napoli (including $5M in bonuses)   QO

    $9.5M Drew  QO

    $9M Ellsbury  QO

    $7.04M Hanrahan

    $4.5M Saltalamacchia 

    $1.5M McDonald

     

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm good with the AJP deal--used to think he was a jerk, but I just checked his stats vs. Salty and was shocked to see how similar they were.  Doesn't strike out as much as Salty, pretty good defensively, doesn't grind as much as some of our guys do.  Won't hit as many HR's as Salty, but his pitchers have a better ERA.  Good SERA catcher,  Moon?  I like this in other ways too:  save some money for other needs, bridge to young catchers, we can can him in a year if we want to, and we get a draft pick for Salty right?  He's one of those guy you hate when he's on the other team but love when he's on yours.  They say he really wants to win, and I like a couple of guys on a team who can be a little "edgy."  I think I like this...but of course I liked Bobby V. too, and we all know how that turned out.

    [/QUOTE]

    I'll check his pitcher by pitcher CERA tonight.

    Although overall CERA is near meaningless, unless all catchers caugfht the same pitchers to closely the same percent, here are those numbers:

     

    TEX 2013:

    AJ P 3.60  (.695 OPS against) in 1005 innings

    G Soto 3.67 (.721) in 431

     

    CWS 2012:

    AJ P  4.06  (.725) in 1071

    Flowers  4.04 (.728) in 361

     

    CWS 2011:

    AJ P: 4.04  (.713) in 1008

    Flowers: 3.96  (.699) in 257

    R Castro: 4.28 (.722) in 174

     

    CWS 2010:

    AJ P:  3.95  (.708) in 1092

    Castro  4.48  (.759)  in 279

     

    One noticable thing that jumps out at me is the consistent innings caught by AJ.

    He's been over 1,000 while salty just eeked over 1,000 for the first time this year:

    1004, 852, 856, 53, 714...

     

     

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Critter23's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'm good with the AJP deal--used to think he was a jerk, but I just checked his stats vs. Salty and was shocked to see how similar they were.  Doesn't strike out as much as Salty, pretty good defensively, doesn't grind as much as some of our guys do.  Won't hit as many HR's as Salty, but his pitchers have a better ERA.  Good SERA catcher,  Moon?  I like this in other ways too:  save some money for other needs, bridge to young catchers, we can can him in a year if we want to, and we get a draft pick for Salty right?  He's one of those guy you hate when he's on the other team but love when he's on yours.  They say he really wants to win, and I like a couple of guys on a team who can be a little "edgy."  I think I like this...but of course I liked Bobby V. too, and we all know how that turned out.

    [/QUOTE]


    No, he wasnt offered a QO.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I like the Piezynsky deal. I would have just gone with Lavarnway but this way we have a good sub waiting in AAA ball, and we probably will need him. 

    I like intelligent catchers. We got a winner.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Cross Ellsbury of your Christmas list.

    $153M/7 to the Yanks with an option on year 8.

     

    Cross Salty off the list.

    $21M/3 to Miami.

     

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