A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Iglesias would come in pretty handy right now. Wouldn't he.

    I should hurry up and take Burrito off ignore and read his post before either he gets banned or the post gets deleted anyway. I wouldn't want to miss anything important.

    Oh yeah, another fine post from our illustrious village idiot.

    Crit, I nailed this season as much as anyone. The only major thing I got wrong was that I didn't think Ortiz would be as good and I didn't even want to re sign him so that was pretty much a disaster. How would that have worked out once we got to the world series if we even made it that far. I thought he was probably a PED user but he made it through this year clean and as far as I'm concerned now he has my vote for the HOF. The guy has been passing blood test after blood test. No mtter what he has done in the past or is doing now, he's passing the tests and we need to just assume he's clean. It's the right thing to do.

    I also thought Middlebrooks would do better but who didn't. I think I was on target a heck of a lot more than just about anyone else here regarding the projected record of the redsox even when almost everyone thought they were no where near the playoffs.  I think I was right about Salty, Lackey, Ellsbury, the pen etc...but no one remembers such things so who cares. 

    I never expected them to sign Kuroda this winter but I still think he would help us more than Napoli will. I didn't expect hardly anything I proposed this winter to happen but I said what I thought they should do and we will see what ends up being the best course.

    Who wants to bet that Napoli doesn't have as good a year as Kuroda, Choo or Tanaka. I bet it's not even close. But no one will remember it anyway.

    [/QUOTE]

    Boom, you did get a lot right last year...kudos.

    I may be wrtong, but I thought you expected a bigger year from Ellsbury than he gave us, and I thought you were down on Salty, but like you said, "no onw will remember anyway", and I'll add, unless you are wrong.

    Of course nobody expects Napoli to have a better year than Choo, and that's why they were paid much differently.

    I do expect at least as good a year in 2014 as 2013 for Naps. I may end up being wrong, but I think he will have a big year, although he will go through rough stretches as always.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thinking about it Moon, both Dempster or Drew would be injury depth options to me so I think I would still prefer Dempster. Most would think Dempster is less likely to earn his keep though but we are more likely to need a starter due to an injury. We don't have good depth at SS though so it's maybe a wash.

    [/QUOTE]

    Your supreme faith in Middy rivals that of ....  say...

    ... Josh Reddick.

    Undecided

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think I have supreme faith in either of them but notice that Reddick is still a starting level player for a division champ! When others thought he was a probable washout.

    He has not played well enough to start for the Sox, defense aside.

    He has done way worse than many here expected offensively, and he had about as brief a moment of greatness as Middy has had thus far. 

    I hope Middy's offensive path does not go as Josh's did. I do not think it will, but it obviously concerns me more than you.

     

    I don't expect Middlebrooks to be an all star but I do think he will be a solid regular and put up 2-3 really solid HR years at some point. I think his taste in women has gone decidedly downhill. I thought his first girlfriend was incredibly hot. Why change?

    Middy has to adjust. That's always a guess as to whether he can sufficiently or not. I hope you are right.

     

    My favorite farm players:

    Bogaerts

    Cechinni

    Betts

    Swihart

    I like JBJ a lot also but he is around #5 for me.

    [/QUOTE]


    My faves are:

    1) Bogey

    2) Cecchini

    3) Owens

    4) Betts

    5) JBJ

     

    My sleepers:

    1) W Rijo

    2) Hassan (I'm an OBP nut)

    3) Luis Diaz

    4) Simon Mercedes

    5) Tzu-Wei Lin

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This is probably far from "realistic", so maybe it should not be mentioned on this thread, but here is one extreme idea:

    Trade: Peavy ($14.5M), Dempster ($13.25M) and Gomes ($5M) for prospects*

    Sign: Tanaka (~$20M x 6) and Drew (~$9M x 1)

    Trade: Middlebrooks, Bradley, Lavarnway, Betts, Linares,  de la Rosa and prospects*

    For G. Stanton & S Cishek

    2014 Sox:

    1) Victorino CF

    2) Pedroia 2B

    3) Ortiz  DH

    4) Stanton RF

    5) Napoli 1B

    6) Nava/Carp LF

    7) Bogaerts 3B

    8) Drew SS

    9) Pierzynski C

    Bench: (one: Carp/Nava), Herrera, Ross, one: Holt, Snyder, Hassan, Brentz

     

    SP: Lester, Buchholz, Tanaka, Lackey, Doubront, (Workman & others AAA)

    RP: Uehara, Cishek, Mujica, Breslow, Tazawa, Miller, Badenhop

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Stanton is one of the more overated players in baseball. He probably has some huge power yers but he also will be on the disabled list a lot and hit for some years with very low average and never field that well. I wouldn't trade all those guys for him. I don't care much at all about Linares and relatively little for De Larosa but he still has solid potential at least as a reliever. You know I give Lavarnway more credit than most here ( Besides Bill maybe! ) but Betts is a huge prospect and Bradley is a probable starting level guy under control for over 5 years and I do think Middlebrooks will give us most of the power that Stanton gives you with better fielding value.

    All that said, I bet most people on message boards would do your proposed trade in a heartbeat and then some.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I don't think I was far off with Ellsbury this year. He did have a solid year even through some significant injuries. Led the league in steals at a high percentage and was real solid overall. He didn't replicate 2011 but it might have been his 2nd best year. I thought he would be good and he was good. 

    I was down on Salty, and it looks like every GM in baseball was also with the possible exception of the one in Miami. He wasn't worth a QO. He wasn't worth a 30 mil contract. I was more right on Salty than you, Southpa...etc. Just saying. He was the guy benched in the WS for making dumbell decisions. He did not get the big contract. The Redsox did not bring him back.

    I have no problem admitting I'm wrong and do it regularly. As with Ortiz and Middlebrooks last year. But I don't think I was far off at all with Ellsbury and I never said Reddick was going to be an all star. He's doing about as well as expected overall. Good power, solid defense. poor OBP and plate discipline. I thought he was more a keeper than Kalish and that sure turned out to be right.

    To be completely honest, I have been right a lot, but it is clear as a bell that it doesn't get noticed so who cares any more. So be it.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I don't think I was far off with Ellsbury this year. He did have a solid year even through some significant injuries. Led the league in steals at a high percentage and was real solid overall. He didn't replicate 2011 but it might have been his 2nd best year. I thought he would be good and he was good. 

    I thought you projected a better OBP and power. My bad.

     

    I was down on Salty, and it looks like every GM in baseball was also with the possible exception of the one in Miami. He wasn't worth a QO. He wasn't worth a 30 mil contract. I was more right on Salty than you, Southpa...etc. Just saying. He was the guy benched in the WS for making dumbell decisions. He did not get the big contract. The Redsox did not bring him back.

    I was talking about his fine 2013 season. I thought you were talking about his 2013 performance when you said this..."I think I was right about Salty, Lackey, Ellsbury, the pen etc...but no one remembers such things so who cares. ". Last winter, I expected further improvement from Salty and suggested we either extend him or trade him rather than lose him after 2013 with nothing in return. I'm not sure how that is "more wrong" than your position.

    I never thought we'd resign him this winter. I clearly stated that the Sox showed a lack of confidence in Salty by benching him the final 3 games of the WS for a guy like Ross. 

    I had hoped we'd sign him, and mentioned we could trade him later, if a kid proved himself ready, but I never expected it to happen.

     

    I have no problem admitting I'm wrong and do it t his 2013regularly. As with Ortiz and Middlebrooks last year. But I don't think I was far off at all with Ellsbury and I never said Reddick was going to be an all star. He's doing about as well as expected overall. Good power, solid defense. poor OBP and plate discipline. I thought he was more a keeper than Kalish and that sure turned out to be right.

    You were very high on Reddick. Yes, you mentioned that just his defense was enough to make him a valuable starter, but I am pretty certain you expected much better offense from him than what he has done since his great half year start with the A's. I am afraid Middy might go the same route as Reddick, but without the spectacular defense to keep his value on the plus side.

     

    To be completely honest, I have been right a lot, but it is clear as a bell that it doesn't get noticed so who cares any more. So be it.

    Boom, I have given you many props on being right this year... all through the year. I have also admitted to being wrong a lot this year, and I recognize you are one of the few to admit your mistakes as well. I appreciate that.

    Like I said, I hope you are right about Middy. I hope he returns to something like his first 40 MLB games, but I am more worried about his last 88 MLB games. I know injuries were part of the decline, but these numbers do not lie:

    In the 88 games since June 24, 2012, Middlebrooks has hit .210 with a .246 OBP and he was slugging .299 with 15 homers, 46 RBI and 93 whiffs. Yes, that is still close to 30 HR power over 160 games, but that does not even come close to making up for a .545 OPS and iffy defense. 

     




     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Reddick is barely above being a replacement player now but take him out of Oakland and his offensive numbers would improve some. I actually liked that trade overall. I never expected him to be an all star. Bailey was a good deal if he didn't get hurt.

    I did expect bigger power numbers from Ellsbury but overall he did have a solid year and was about at expectations except for the pop. He was above my expectations in many other categories like steals and steal percentage.

    Being right doesn't count for much though does it so why bother? Who was right more than me last year? I projected 93 or so wins. No one predicted that last winter, no matter what they say now. Maybe one or two 91 win guys. No one expected a big comback from Lester and Lackey. Or solid years from Doubront did they?

    Middy's recent numbers are not looking all that great admittedly, and I never liked him in the minors until he got to AA ball and showed his power potential, but RH power is in tremendous demand right now and I really do think injuries were a big factor. He's never going to be a high average hitter but .270-.280 with 25-35 HR pop is real fine in my book, especially for a cheap and controllable 3rd baseman who is only a slightly below average fielder. I question his range at 3rd. That is my biggest concern and his plate discipline but believe it or not to me I'm more concerned with his range. The guy is stiff. He doesn't hit the ground like many other players. The ball seems to scoot by him regularly.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Reddick is barely above being a replacement player now but take him out of Oakland and his offensive numbers would improve some. I actually liked that trade overall. I never expected him to be an all star. Bailey was a good deal if he didn't get hurt.

    Big parks usually improve your BA but hurt power numbers.

    Reddick H & A with Oakland

                          Home  /  Away  BA & Hrs

    2012: .247 18 HRs/ .238 14 HRs

    2013: .200  2 HRs/ .254 10 HRs

    Overall his numbers are pretty close home and away with Oakland.

    Home (571 PAs)  .228  20  75 (OBP .305/SLG .407)

    Away  (543 PAs) .244  24  66 (OBP .306/ SLG .455)

    I know you never said he'd be an allstar, but I think you expected better offense than .244/.306/.455/.761  (his road splits).

     

    I did expect bigger power numbers from Ellsbury but overall he did have a solid year and was about at expectations except for the pop. He was above my expectations in many other categories like steals and steal percentage.

    Being right doesn't count for much though does it so why bother? Who was right more than me last year? I projected 93 or so wins. No one predicted that last winter, no matter what they say now. Maybe one or two 91 win guys. No one expected a big comback from Lester and Lackey. Or solid years from Doubront did they?

    Several posters projected 90+ wins. Not me.

     

    Middy's recent numbers are not looking all that great admittedly, and I never liked him in the minors until he got to AA ball and showed his power potential, but RH power is in tremendous demand right now and I really do think injuries were a big factor. He's never going to be a high average hitter but .270-.280 with 25-35 HR pop is real fine in my book, especially for a cheap and controllable 3rd baseman who is only a slightly below average fielder. I question his range at 3rd. That is my biggest concern and his plate discipline but believe it or not to me I'm more concerned with his range. The guy is stiff. He doesn't hit the ground like many other players. The ball seems to scoot by him regularly.

    That's one reason I wanted him moved to 1B and bogey to 3B last year.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If Middy's bat doesn't play at 3rd it probably will not play at 1st. If you are alluding to the defensive issue then a platoon with Carp made some sense didn't it. Oh well, so much for that option.

    Guys, I think Tanaka is going to cost some team between $142 - $150 mil. Wow. for a guy who has never played a second of mlb baseball.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    25 years old- not 30-32 like most top free agent pitchers these days.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    So, unless we make a deal or someone gets hurt, this looks like this will be our 25 man roster to start the year:

    Pierzynski

    Ross

    Napoli

    Carp

    Ortiz

    Pedroia

    Herrera

    Bogaerts

    Middlebrooks

    Nava

    Gomes

    Bradley

    Victorino

    Lester

    Buchholz

    Lackey

    Peavy

    Doubront

    Dempster

    Uehara

    Mujica

    Tazawa

    Breslow

    Miller

    Badenhop

     

    Players that may to see time in Boston (maybe too far away):

    C: Lavarnway (Butler/Vazquez)

    1B: Snyder

    2B: Holt (Betts/Coyle)

    SS: Holt, McCoy, Meneses (Marrero)

    3B: Cecchini, Snyder, Holt

    LF: Hassan, Linares

    CF: Linares (Ramos)

    RF: Brentz, Linares

    DH: Lavarnway (Coyle)

    SP: Workman, Britton, Webster, Wright, Ranaudo, Barnes, Hinojosa (Owens)

    RP: Workman, Britton, de la Rosa, Villareal, A Wilson, Hernandez, Ely, Layne, Watanabe (N Ramirez, Kurcz, Balcom-Miller)

     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The Red Sox were mentioned in FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan's analysis of depth in the starting rotation:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/revisiting-the-myth-of-the-five-man-rotation/

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Red Sox were mentioned in FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan's analysis of depth in the starting rotation:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/revisiting-the-myth-of-the-five-man-rotation/

    [/QUOTE]

    Good article.

    I think with Workman, Britton, Webster, Wright, Hinojosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, and maybe even Owens at some point, the Sox can cobble together a decent 6th starter to take Dempster's spot.

    Trade Dempster. Pay a small part of his deal if needed.

    We can use the budget flex space in June or July.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    I know you never said he'd be an allstar, but I think you expected better offense than .244/.306/.455/.761  (his road splits).

    You were very high on Reddick. Yes, you mentioned that just his defense was enough to make him a valuable starter, but I am pretty certain you expected much better offense from him than what he has done since his great half year start with the A's. I am afraid Middy might go the same route as Reddick, but without the spectacular defense to keep his value on the plus side.

     

    After enjoying a breakout campaign in 2012 that included 32 home runs, Reddick plummeted back to earth in 2013. We can attribute much of Reddick’s poor play tothe sprained wrist that he played through for part of the season. He has undergone successful surgery and is expected to be ready by spring training. ...  the 14 percent HR/FB ratio that he posted in his breakout 2012 or his 8.9 percent rate from 2013. For what it’s worth, his career rate is 10.8 percent and that seems like a good place to rest your expectations....... His year-to-year ISO fell from .221 in 2012 to .153 in 2013. Wrist injuries are known to sap power and it can take more than a year in some cases for a player to fully recover their power  http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/josh-reddick-mr-replacement/

     

    Don't write off Reddick or Middy because of the wrist injuries.  Reddick's Steamer and Oliver projections for ISO: 190 and 157.  If he plays 155 games with a .173 ISO  = ~ 26 HR

    WAR since leaving for JR = 7.2  8th best in MLB for RF  (Victorino 8.5 ) 

    I would not be surprised if JR has a higher WAR than SV for '14 plus '15.

    Boom, I will give you credit for knowing your baseball.

     

     



     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    I know you never said he'd be an allstar, but I think you expected better offense than .244/.306/.455/.761  (his road splits).

    You were very high on Reddick. Yes, you mentioned that just his defense was enough to make him a valuable starter, but I am pretty certain you expected much better offense from him than what he has done since his great half year start with the A's. I am afraid Middy might go the same route as Reddick, but without the spectacular defense to keep his value on the plus side.

     

    After enjoying a breakout campaign in 2012 that included 32 home runs, Reddick plummeted back to earth in 2013. We can attribute much of Reddick’s poor play tothe sprained wrist that he played through for part of the season. He has undergone successful surgery and is expected to be ready by spring training. ...  the 14 percent HR/FB ratio that he posted in his breakout 2012 or his 8.9 percent rate from 2013. For what it’s worth, his career rate is 10.8 percent and that seems like a good place to rest your expectations....... His year-to-year ISO fell from .221 in 2012 to .153 in 2013. Wrist injuries are known to sap power and it can take more than a year in some cases for a player to fully recover their power  http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/josh-reddick-mr-replacement/

     

    Don't write off Reddick or Middy because of the wrist injuries.  Reddick's Steamer and Oliver projections for ISO: 190 and 157.  If he plays 155 games with a .173 ISO  = ~ 26 HR

    WAR since leaving for JR = 7.2  8th best in MLB for RF  (Victorino 8.5 ) 

    I would not be surprised if JR has a higher WAR than SV for '14 plus '15.

    Boom, I will give you credit for knowing your baseball.

     

     



    [/QUOTE]

    I haven't written off Middy by a long shot, but we all should be concerned about what he might give us in 2014. Even if it was all wrist-related, sometimes it takes over a year to get back to 100% from those injuries (see Papi).

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    I know you never said he'd be an allstar, but I think you expected better offense than .244/.306/.455/.761  (his road splits).

    You were very high on Reddick. Yes, you mentioned that just his defense was enough to make him a valuable starter, but I am pretty certain you expected much better offense from him than what he has done since his great half year start with the A's. I am afraid Middy might go the same route as Reddick, but without the spectacular defense to keep his value on the plus side.

     

    After enjoying a breakout campaign in 2012 that included 32 home runs, Reddick plummeted back to earth in 2013. We can attribute much of Reddick’s poor play tothe sprained wrist that he played through for part of the season. He has undergone successful surgery and is expected to be ready by spring training. ...  the 14 percent HR/FB ratio that he posted in his breakout 2012 or his 8.9 percent rate from 2013. For what it’s worth, his career rate is 10.8 percent and that seems like a good place to rest your expectations....... His year-to-year ISO fell from .221 in 2012 to .153 in 2013. Wrist injuries are known to sap power and it can take more than a year in some cases for a player to fully recover their power  http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/josh-reddick-mr-replacement/

     

    Don't write off Reddick or Middy because of the wrist injuries.  Reddick's Steamer and Oliver projections for ISO: 190 and 157.  If he plays 155 games with a .173 ISO  = ~ 26 HR

    WAR since leaving for JR = 7.2  8th best in MLB for RF  (Victorino 8.5 ) 

    I would not be surprised if JR has a higher WAR than SV for '14 plus '15.

    Boom, I will give you credit for knowing your baseball.

     

     



    [/QUOTE]

    This is a perfect example of what a top poster is. Real insight presented in a cogent fashion with enough data to reach an appropriate conclusion. Tom, you, Hill55, Jete, Zac, Joebriety and a few others are my top posters for what it's worth.

    So many people are looking at Middlebrooks as near worthless when it is probably inappropriate. Even Moon is concerned but wouldn't sign Drew which is basically my position also. I'm maybe just less concerned about Middlebrooks. Lots or people are advocating signing Drew. I think that is a poor use of resources.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Red Sox were mentioned in FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan's analysis of depth in the starting rotation:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/revisiting-the-myth-of-the-five-man-rotation/

    [/QUOTE]

    Your team doesn't want Tanaka huh Hill! They would probably prefer Dempster I'm sure!

    Just kidding!

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Quite a bit of buzz that Seattle might even be the team that signs Tanaka. My bet is that either LA or NYY will not be overbid. This one is going to get crazy.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    So many people are looking at Middlebrooks as near worthless when it is probably inappropriate. Even Moon is concerned but wouldn't sign Drew which is basically my position also. I'm maybe just less concerned about Middlebrooks. Lots or people are advocating signing Drew. I think that is a poor use of resources.

    I agree, and although I am concerned about a few things this year, I still think we have a good shot at a ring.

    By biggest concerns:

    1) Health

    2) Middlebrooks (Bogey or Cecchini may do well in his place, but if it is Bogey, who plays SS?)

    3) JBJ (Victorino would do fine in CF, but no way do I want Nava in RF FT and Gomes/Carp in LF FT)

    4) SS defense

    5) Team speed

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The revenue changes of mlb are the most underreported and misunderstood aspects of the game. I spent 10 years in the TV business. I have followed TV revenue growth issues in the trade journals and such. I'm telling you guys that the world has changed and will continue to change. Media revenues are increasing by over 10% a year. That's over 50% growth in 5 years. A $10 mil contract is over $15 mil 5 years from now potentially. It depends of course in what the owners do with their money but it is very likely salaries increase a lot. Now is a great time to start locking up some top players. So far that isn't happening. 

    So we are in a modified Tampa Bay mode. We dodn't sign many top FA and we depend on the draft. We better have a boatload of picks if we expect that to work. At least we do have some solid core players but when Lester, Ortiz and some others leave we better have some replacements ready. Even with 6 top starting pitching prospects in the minors I would feel better having one probably stud lined up. I think the FO will adjust accordingly but so far it doesn't appear to be happening.

    Will Tanaka be the first example of this?

    I believe Tanaka is actually younger than Workman. And look at the numbers he has put up in 7 years of Japanese baseball.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Quite a bit of buzz that Seattle might even be the team that signs Tanaka. My bet is that either LA or NYY will not be overbid. This one is going to get crazy.

    [/QUOTE]

    The Dodgers' rotation would be awesome.

    Kershaw

    Greinke

    Tanaka

    Ryu

    Haren

    Beckett/Billingsley

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    The revenue changes of mlb are the most underreported and misunderstood aspects of the game. I spent 10 years in the TV business. I have followed TV revenue growth issues in the trade journals and such. I'm telling you guys that the world has changed and will continue to change. Media revenues are increasing by over 10% a year. That's over 50% growth in 5 years. A $10 mil contract is over $15 mil 5 years from now potentially. It depends of course in what the owners do with their money but it is very likely salaries increase a lot. Now is a great time to start locking up some top players. So far that isn't happening. 

    I agree, boom, and there seems to be a fear among this site's posters of longterm deals. The CC deal back-fired and suddenly nobody is worth a long contract.

    We should lock up Lester and maybe even some of our pre-arb kids like the Rays did with Longoria and Moore.

     

    So we are in a modified Tampa Bay mode. We dodn't sign many top FA and we depend on the draft.

    Actually, the Rays draft has not helped them much in recent years, it has been their trades of players about to reach free agency or decline for young prospects that has kept them afloat.

     

    We better have a boatload of picks if we expect that to work.

    We do: 3 this year and maybe 3  more next year for Lester, Ortiz, and Peavy. In 2016, we have Napoli and Victorino as possible QO players.

     

    At least we do have some solid core players but when Lester, Ortiz and some others leave we better have some replacements ready. Even with 6 top starting pitching prospects in the minors I would feel better having one probably stud lined up. I think the FO will adjust accordingly but so far it doesn't appear to be happening.

    I have made this point for soem time. I'd prefer a bit more quality than quantity in our minor league system, especially SP'ers. Owens may be "the man", but the others do not look like Ace material. Maybe solid #2 types at best.

     

    Will Tanaka be the first example of this?

    The more I think about this 25 year pitcher, I'd like to see us go strong to get him, but I doubt we even get to the final 3 bidders.

     

    I believe Tanaka is actually younger than Workman. And look at the numbers he has put up in 7 years of Japanese baseball.

    He's got a pitch that batters can't hit even though they know what is coming.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Supposedly the best Forkball in Japanese baseball, maybe all of baseball. Better than Kuroda's or Kojis supposedly. With a better fastball and terrific command. All this fluctuates of course but put me down for 7 years and $126 mil on top of the $20 mil signing deal. 

    I know it's risky but the guy is a probable game changer. We just won the freaking world series. I want to do that again and if this guy helps that process as much as I think he would I think then I sure hope they make a run.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from NegativeTrollsAbound. Show NegativeTrollsAbound's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Sources confirm Sox not in on Tanaka still all.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Supposedly the best Forkball in Japanese baseball, maybe all of baseball. Better than Kuroda's or Kojis supposedly. With a better fastball and terrific command. All this fluctuates of course but put me down for 7 years and $126 mil on top of the $20 mil signing deal. 

    I know it's risky but the guy is a probable game changer. We just won the freaking world series. I want to do that again and if this guy helps that process as much as I think he would I think then I sure hope they make a run.

    [/QUOTE]

    That sounds about right: $126/7.

    I'd think about $160M/10.

     

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