A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Spring training invites are completely separate. The 25 man roster is which players can actually play a regular season or playoff game. The 40 man is who is eligible for a call up for a regular season game or in some instances during an injury in a playoff game. They could invite 100 players to spring training if they wanted but it is operationally inefficient.

    Houston's payroll is so low though that something is going to give. They must be incredibly overleveraged if they are having any issues at all financially given the cash flow coming in year to year. Even if they bought the team completely on credit they should have no problem with meeting bill payments. Maybe they had to put up quite a bit up front in cash and are maxed out. That could well be a problem.

    You know what...I actually want Henry to get his $40 mil. The guy deserves every bit of support we have given him and his group. 3 WS wins so far and a competitive team almost every year. The guy is fantastic to me and I hope he makes billions.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If it's true we actually didn't even make a $100 mil run at Tanaka I'd be surprised. I hope we don't go into some huge conservative spending freeze. I have no problem with the current spending level but if the mlb agreement means we can't get revenue sharing dollars any more in 2016 and we are in the running I'd like to see us go after top guys again some at that point at least. We can afford it. Maybe it's prudent right now because of the $40 mil but I don't want it to become a consistent policy every year. If a major talent becomes available like a Tanaka and Darvish I don't want to just punt. At least try a $100 mil deal for Tanaka. 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    So far, the Sox have invied 12 non-roster players to spring training:

    Blake Swihart

    Henry Owens

    Matt Barnes

    Dalier Hinojosa

    John Ely

    Tommy Layne

    Deven Marrero

    Noe Ramirez

    Mike McCoy

    Brandon Snyder

    Travis Shaw

    Heiker Meneses

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I hate to ask stupid questions...but sometimes I do anyway. :-)

     

    Is this in addition to the 40?  And not the 25?

    And where do you find this information?

    [/QUOTE]

    These guys are in addition to the players on the 40-man roster who will all, presumably, be invited to ST. There may also be a group of veteran free-agent invitees as there is most years; haven't heard about any of those yet.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    So far, the Sox have invied 12 non-roster players to spring training:

    Blake Swihart

    Henry Owens

    Matt Barnes

    Dalier Hinojosa

    John Ely

    Tommy Layne

    Deven Marrero

    Noe Ramirez

    Mike McCoy

    Brandon Snyder

    Travis Shaw

    Heiker Meneses

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I hate to ask stupid questions...but sometimes I do anyway. :-)

     

    Is this in addition to the 40?  And not the 25?

    And where do you find this information?

    [/QUOTE]

    These guys are in addition to the players on the 40-man roster who will all, presumably, be invited to ST. There may also be a group of veteran free-agent invitees as there is most years; haven't heard about any of those yet.

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, not on the 40 man roster... here's the link:

    http://news.soxprospects.com/2014/01/owens-swihart-barnes-highlight-spring.html

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If it's true we actually didn't even make a $100 mil run at Tanaka I'd be surprised. I hope we don't go into some huge conservative spending freeze. I have no problem with the current spending level but if the mlb agreement means we can't get revenue sharing dollars any more in 2016 and we are in the running I'd like to see us go after top guys again some at that point at least. We can afford it. Maybe it's prudent right now because of the $40 mil but I don't want it to become a consistent policy every year. If a major talent becomes available like a Tanaka and Darvish I don't want to just punt. At least try a $100 mil deal for Tanaka. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Have to agree that I think in the end J.Henry will do his best to put a winner in Boston every year. But the one thing that Henry believes in very strongly and stated from the beginning is having a strong farm system. The problem with Tanaka is everyone wants to make him out to a Darvish, and not a Matsuzaka. If your the RS and have a bunch of up and comers in Owens / Barnes / Workman / Raunado is the risk reward there? If you sign Tanaka to a long term deal you know you've just guaranteed him a rotation spot for 6 yrs. The one thing that has happened with alot of Japanese imports from Japan like Matsuzaka / Nomo is they tend to fade after their 3rd yr in MLB, possibly due to all the IP in Japan? Have heard alot of scouts say his fastball can be flat and many times when his misses w/ fastball its up, ok in Japan usually a foul balll back but a big no-no in MLB.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I


    Hey Jid, are you bound for the Fort for ST and are you making your reports?  I hope so as I thought you did a great job--especially since much of what you reported seeing proved true as the season started...have been reading here daily as usual, but haven't been feeling like commenting on recent topics.  My engine will start up as ST nears and as we get into some more signings when the pitching/ss situations clear up...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Hey Jid, are you bound for the Fort for ST and are you making your reports?  I hope so as I thought you did a great job--especially since much of what you reported seeing proved true as the season started...have been reading here daily as usual, but haven't been feeling like commenting on recent topics.  My engine will start up as ST nears and as we get into some more signings when the pitching/ss situations clear up...

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes Crit. Fly down on the 25th of February and the college double-header is the 27th I believe. I will be at every home game, drop in on some minor league games, and even try to catch some college games at the old Fort Myers ballpark like I did last year. I will have my "internet device" with me (something called a chromebook) and will report as best I can. Not sure how well my predictions went; I did forecast a winning season which it certainly was, but I also forecast ROY for Bradley Jr (maybe a year ahead of myself?) and possible CY for Clay (possible if he stayed healthy). I thought Napoli would be excellent at first and he was and I thought both Nava and Ellsbury would have good years, which they did. I also thought coming out of ST that our pitching would be our greatest strength and it was and looks to be again this year. I'm really excited about this team this year and anxious to get down there ASAP, especially since it's ten degrees and snowing sideways here in Western Mass.!

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If it's true we actually didn't even make a $100 mil run at Tanaka I'd be surprised. I hope we don't go into some huge conservative spending freeze. I have no problem with the current spending level but if the mlb agreement means we can't get revenue sharing dollars any more in 2016 and we are in the running I'd like to see us go after top guys again some at that point at least. We can afford it. Maybe it's prudent right now because of the $40 mil but I don't want it to become a consistent policy every year. If a major talent becomes available like a Tanaka and Darvish I don't want to just punt. At least try a $100 mil deal for Tanaka. 

    [/QUOTE]


    Have to agree that I think in the end J.Henry will do his best to put a winner in Boston every year. But the one thing that Henry believes in very strongly and stated from the beginning is having a strong farm system. The problem with Tanaka is everyone wants to make him out to a Darvish, and not a Matsuzaka. If your the RS and have a bunch of up and comers in Owens / Barnes / Workman / Raunado is the risk reward there? If you sign Tanaka to a long term deal you know you've just guaranteed him a rotation spot for 6 yrs. The one thing that has happened with alot of Japanese imports from Japan like Matsuzaka / Nomo is they tend to fade after their 3rd yr in MLB, possibly due to all the IP in Japan? Have heard alot of scouts say his fastball can be flat and many times when his misses w/ fastball its up, ok in Japan usually a foul balll back but a big no-no in MLB.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Generally I agree with this but I'm not that hopeful any of our starting pitching prospects ever become #1 level potential studs and at some point we are going to need at least 1, and hopefully 2. that's ok, they still are of a lot of value, but we also need some front end starters for when Lackey, Buchholz, Lester are gone.

    I especially agree that the way to beat Tanaka is probably through the HR. He pitches from almost a crouch with little downhill plane and a straight fastball. As he ages that is a potential big problem but he may well be one of the best 10 pitchers in mlb for the next few years. He would really be a great fit in LA but Kuroda has done very well in Yankee Stadium with very similar stuff. I think he would put up better numbers than anyone we have except Buchholz, and considering Buchholz now looks like an Treblinka refugee I don't think we can count on him at this point. He may never recover from where he was just a while ago.

    And as I've documented several times here, I'm pretty sure Henry's group is clearing $200 mil per year in revenue from their local TV deal alone ( $60 mil directly to the team, $140 mil to the NESN ownership company). Throw in the $40 mil in revenue sharing and all the cash from attendance and concessions, advertising etc...and they can clearly afford Tanaka.

    I have no problem signing Tanaka and then trading Dempster and even 2 starting pitching prospects as long as we keep several near mlb ready plus Workman. That secures the staff long term, and substantially upgrades our rotation in 2014. And our AAA level pitching prospects are worth a lot right now.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    First, I know Dice-K turned out to be a dissapointment, but injuries played a big role. He was a very talented pitcher. Yes, perhaps the overwork in Japan played a role in his injuries, but I still think the Sox played a role in his demise.

    Now, to this post...

     

    Generally I agree with this but I'm not that hopeful any of our starting pitching prospects ever become #1 level potential studs and at some point we are going to need at least 1, and hopefully 2. that's ok, they still are of a lot of value, but we also need some front end starters for when Lackey, Buchholz, Lester are gone.

    We may not end up with a " #1 stud", but I think we have a pretty good chance that one will, or perhaps 2-3 might become very good #2s or #3s and maybe 2-3 more decent #3s or 4s

    Owens (21)

    Barnes (23)

    Ranaudo (24)

    Webster (23)

    Workman (25)

    T Ball (19)

    Britton (24)

    Stankiewicz (20)

    Johnson (23)

    Callahan (19)

    Mercedes (21)

    Buttrey (20)

    L Diaz (21)

    Hinojosa (27)

    Wright (29)

    Kukuk (20)

    Smith (21)

    Littrell (21)

    Gomez (20)

    McGrath (19)

     

    This is 20 guys!

     

    If I had to bet, from this group above, I'd say we end up with a solid, if not spectacular #1, #2, #3 and #4, plus possibly 2-5 decent #4-5 types. If we miss out on a legit #1, but end up with 2-3 solid #2s or #s, we can maybe get one through free agency, especially since we could be saving a lot of money with low cost 2-5 starters who came up through our system.

     

     

    I especially agree that the way to beat Tanaka is probably through the HR. He pitches from almost a crouch with little downhill plane and a straight fastball. As he ages that is a potential big problem but he may well be one of the best 10 pitchers in mlb for the next few years. He would really be a great fit in LA but Kuroda has done very well in Yankee Stadium with very similar stuff. I think he would put up better numbers than anyone we have except Buchholz, and considering Buchholz now looks like an Treblinka refugee I don't think we can count on him at this point. He may never recover from where he was just a while ago.

    It's hard to know if Buch is done. His type of injury is not hard to project. He looked pretty good when he came back last year, and modern medicine is improving by leaps and bounds.

     

    And as I've documented several times here, I'm pretty sure Henry's group is clearing $200 mil per year in revenue from their local TV deal alone ( $60 mil directly to the team, $140 mil to the NESN ownership company). Throw in the $40 mil in revenue sharing and all the cash from attendance and concessions, advertising etc...and they can clearly afford Tanaka.

    I agree. Maybe they just don't project him to be as good as some of us think he might be.

    I don't think it is stinginess that kept Henry from opening up the purse strings, I think the management team set a value and knew their price would not win, so they chose not to even make an offer.

     

    I have no problem signing Tanaka and then trading Dempster and even 2 starting pitching prospects as long as we keep several near mlb ready plus Workman. That secures the staff long term, and substantially upgrades our rotation in 2014. And our AAA level pitching prospects are worth a lot right now.

    I feel the same way, but I trust Sox management to set the value. I'd have been happy if we got him, but I'm not going criticize Ben or Henry for not going long & large on Tanaka.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    What is Buchs problem?  I don't think I ever heard.  Last I heard the doctors told him he had to pitch through some pain.  He looked like a cadaver to me when he came back, eyes bugging out, but maybe he always looks like that...

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I don't fault the Henry group one single bit for not going after Tanaka. I think they liked their starter depth quite a bit and are trying to develop their own starters given the cost of other options. That's why they rolled the dice on Trey Ball in the last pick when he was undoubtedly a very risky pick. Ideally we want great YOUNG pitchers, saving a ton of money and maybe getting a young stud under control for 6 years of optimal performance. I understand the approach. And if  we are comparing what we have to Tanaka we might well have 1 of those guys end up with comparable numbers for a whole lot less.

    Cherington said the other day that if you have some guys you believe in you've got to give them a chance. I think he's going to do that with his pitching depth in AAA. I really don't think he's going after Tanaka but if you read the comments he made last night in the hot stove event, he said they talked to Tanaka and his agent. He didn't say they passed on him. He just said they would respect the process. Its the same answer he would probably give even if he did make an offer.

    I would have bid for sure but Cherington is a different person than I am. I think he didn't make a competitive bid. They want to stay under the cap and get that revenue sharing and they want to give the AAA guys a chance as injury depth, reserve guys. I do think they will trade Dempster though. I see no reason to keep him. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    If those guys in AAA ball end up with at least one #2 and one #3 I'd be happy as heck. Out of the numbers available in AAA alone we have a chance of that.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What is Buchs problem?  I don't think I ever heard.  Last I heard the doctors told him he had to pitch through some pain.  He looked like a cadaver to me when he came back, eyes bugging out, but maybe he always looks like that...

    [/QUOTE]

    He has always looked haughty. I mean can't they feed him intravenously or something?

    He missed 3 months last year due to a "shoulder injury", then looked troubled in the WS.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:

     

    I don't fault the Henry group one single bit for not going after Tanaka. I think they liked their starter depth quite a bit and are trying to develop their own starters given the cost of other options. That's why they rolled the dice on Trey Ball in the last pick when he was undoubtedly a very risky pick. Ideally we want great YOUNG pitchers, saving a ton of money and maybe getting a young stud under control for 6 years of optimal performance. I understand the approach. And if  we are comparing what we have to Tanaka we might well have 1 of those guys end up with comparable numbers for a whole lot less.

    Cherington said the other day that if you have some guys you believe in you've got to give them a chance. I think he's going to do that with his pitching depth in AAA. I really don't think he's going after Tanaka but if you read the comments he made last night in the hot stove event, he said they talked to Tanaka and his agent. He didn't say they passed on him. He just said they would respect the process. Its the same answer he would probably give even if he did make an offer.

    I would have bid for sure but Cherington is a different person than I am. I think he didn't make a competitive bid. They want to stay under the cap and get that revenue sharing and they want to give the AAA guys a chance as injury depth, reserve guys. I do think they will trade Dempster though. I see no reason to keep him. 

     



    Any team with a lot of young pitching talent coming to spring training would LOVE to have a guy like Ryan Dempster around.  I'm not saying he will be in Boston the entire season, although it's very possible, as his value goes way beyond the "stats," but to say that you "see no reason to keep him" is clearly an opinion that is based on his "stats."  My guess is that Peavy gets moved before Dempster does, but it obviously all depends on the return.  

    Dempster allows the team a ton of flexibility as he takes the ball every 5th day, keeps the team in most games & he has no issues going to the pen, where he can be pretty effective as well. He also has the kind of attitude that you want every young pitcher to emulate and it doesn't hurt that  he can pretty much impersonate anyone and is a great guy to have around to help keep things loose.  One of the biggest reasons he was signed last year was because he was the "anti-Beckett" when it came to setting an example.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Any team with a lot of young pitching talent coming to spring training would LOVE to have a guy like Ryan Dempster around.  I'm not saying he will be in Boston the entire season, although it's very possible, as his value goes way beyond the "stats," but to say that you "see no reason to keep him" is clearly an opinion that is based on his "stats."  

    Couldn't it be based on the idea that Workman, Britton, Webster and others might be better than Dempster, and that being more about valuing the kids highly not Dempster lowly?

     

    My guess is that Peavy gets moved before Dempster does, but it obviously all depends on the return.  

    I can see Peavy bringing much more return, so it being him not Dempster dealt. 

    I'm not sure we wait until the dealine, as that would only save us about $15M not $14.5M.

     

    Dempster allows the team a ton of flexibility as he takes the ball every 5th day, keeps the team in most games & he has no issues going to the pen, where he can be pretty effective as well. He also has the kind of attitude that you want every young pitcher to emulate and it doesn't hurt that  he can pretty much impersonate anyone and is a great guy to have around to help keep things loose.  One of the biggest reasons he was signed last year was because he was the "anti-Beckett" when it came to setting an example.

    Excellent point. I do think Peavy has a nice attitude as well, but Dempster is a good role model for everyone on the team... not just the kids.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    MLBTR reports...

    Cherington On Additions, Starters, Drew By  Jeff Todd [January 21 at 10:53pm CST]

    Red Sox GM Ben Cherington spoke with reporters today, touching on a number of relevant topics. He left the impression that Boston has done most of the heavy lifting for 2014, but is still working to make several improvements.

     

    • The club is not done adding to the roster, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports, with Cherington citing the bullpen, outfield, and infield as possible areas where an acquisition could be made. "I think it's likely we'll add to the roster," said Cherington. "Whether it be in the form of a major league deal or a minor league deal remains to be seen. But [I am] confident that we'll add some players before Spring Training. We're actively working on that now."
    • Cherington indicated that he does not foresee making any significant trades, Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com tweets. Though the post-Tanaka pitching market blitz could result in interest in Sox starters, Cherington said that the club does not expect to deal from its starting depth, as Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald notes.
    • Cherington did not, however, give any indication that progress had been made with free agent shortstop Stephen Drew. Though he said that dialogue has continued, as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal tweets, the GM explained that "the time spent on it publicly is not consistent with the time we're spending on it."
     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Mr. Tanaka says "How do you like me now?"

    The Yanks effectively paid around $175 mil to get him if we count the posting fee. $25 mil a year or about $5 mil more per year than any player we have. And he has never even sniffed a mlb mound.

    And the evil empire isn't done this winter by any means.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Tanaka will be real good. I hope he's not good enough to lead the yanks to a big year.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mr. Tanaka says "How do you like me now?"

    The Yanks effectively paid around $175 mil to get him if we count the posting fee. $25 mil a year or about $5 mil more per year than any player we have. And he has never even sniffed a mlb mound.

    And the evil empire isn't done this winter by any means.

    [/QUOTE]

    Think of it this way, if Tanaka is halfway decent he will opt out of his contract after 4 years.  which means that 20 posting fee plus his salary costs the Yankees 27 million a year, If you want to make the argument that his contract is the one that puts them over the 189 million mark then effectively the cost of NY signing Tanaka will be 38 Million a year for the next 4 years....of course this has nothing to do with their salary cap.  But that is a sizable investment for an unproven player. 

     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Well, I'm just glad Tanaka has signed so we can get on with it.  I was ok with going after him but that's a lot of moohlah and the powers that be must have decided "no." I'm ok with their decisions as they've been "on" so far.  I think now we'll see if anyone's interested in any of our pitchers.  With the progress of Britton, Workman last year and those coming, I'm ok with either Demps or Peavey going--whichever gets us what we need.  Moon, a while back you had a list of all our pitching talent graduated from top to bottom, not major league.  I was glad not to see Wright on the bottom as some place him.  I know I always tout his skills, but I really see his "potential" as being huge for this team just as Wake was at his best.  If he matures and grows, a knuckler is so versatile, start or relieve, fill up lots of junk innings and save others, contrast starts with fastball pitchers, other teams don't see them regularly, etc. that they can be a huge boost if used deftly...anyway, I was glad you didn't bury him on your list, think you had him about 2/3 way through. 

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think Wright has a lot of potential also. His stuff is good enough, as I understand it, but he struggles to control it. He's worth keeping on the roster as starter depth. 

    I'm a little excited about the prospect of having Peavy back again also, maybe a little more removed from his injury and hopefully healthier next year. His value just went way up. He could well be worth a QO if he has a good year. Let's hope he does!

    I'm not against Dempster. I think he would be better next year than he was this year. I just want to clear some salary so we can add some OF depth and maybe a reliever or have the ability to add someone at the break next year if necessary due to an injury. And I do think we have plenty of starter depth to replace him. He's not even our #7 right now, as I think Workman probably slots over him at this point. Do we want to spend that kind of money for our #7? He's gone, baby gone.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Mr. Tanaka says "How do you like me now?"

    The Yanks effectively paid around $175 mil to get him if we count the posting fee. $25 mil a year or about $5 mil more per year than any player we have. And he has never even sniffed a mlb mound.

    And the evil empire isn't done this winter by any means.

    [/QUOTE]

    Think of it this way, if Tanaka is halfway decent he will opt out of his contract after 4 years.  which means that 20 posting fee plus his salary costs the Yankees 27 million a year, If you want to make the argument that his contract is the one that puts them over the 189 million mark then effectively the cost of NY signing Tanaka will be 38 Million a year for the next 4 years....of course this has nothing to do with their salary cap.  But that is a sizable investment for an unproven player. 

    [/QUOTE]

    That's a ton of money isn't it. Paying a 50% penalty must be just killing little Hank! I think it's funny as heck but I think he made the right decision still. I just wanted us to make a play for Tanaka but no way I'd go $175 mil. He will be an excellent starter though in my opinion. He's a problem.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I agree.

    $175M/7 was too high, but I have a feeling Tanaka is going to be real real good.

     
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    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Red Sox Designate Brayan Villarreal For Assignment By  Jeff Todd [January 22 at 6:33pm CST]

    In order to clear roster space for Grady Sizemore, the Red Sox have designated right-handed reliever Brayan Villarreal for assignment, reports Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald (via Twitter). Villarreal came to Boston as part of the last year's Jake Peavy deal.

     

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