Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I
posted at 1/24/2014 2:00 PM EST
In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
Some really great data on the likelihood of a BA top 100 player making it in mlb:
3 out of 4 top 100 pitchers fail. 2 out of 3 top 100 position players. As I said earlier, if we get 2 or 3 guys out of that group we have in AAA we are doing well.
Regarding Tanaka and the Yanks, I think it was a great move for them. Most scouts do think Darvish is better but if you look at Darvish's last 3 years in Japanese baseball and compare it to Tanaka's, Tanaka was the one with the lower ERA and lower WHIP over that 3 year period. That is apples and apples with important data, over a 3 year sample. Tanaka is probably an animal.
And if you really look at Darvish's numbers you could make a case that he is the best pitcher in baseball over the last 2 years. Not saying he was but he is in the conversation. Pitching in Texas in the AL is not easy. It's different than Kershaw's situation in the NL. I'd probably still take Kershaw but Darvish is in the conversation. This means that Tanaka is potentially a top 5 starter in mlb.
He's a potential game changer. If the Yanks continue to improve their roster some I think they are right there with us as favorites in the division. I know most people disagree but they have added a lot of talent and I don't think we have gotten better.
The Yanks have improved, and even without Mo, Grandy and a few others, they should be much better this year.
While on paper it looks like we have not improved, I think there is a lot of things that could happen to make us just as good, if not slightly better than last year. A combination of a few of these things could make us significantly better, but we are going to have to stay relatively healthy.
Mujica taking the place of Hanrahan, Bailey, and Aceves
Buchholz from 16 GS to 32 GS
Doubront continuing to improve
Peavy from 10 GS to 25+ GS
Dempster from 29 GS to less than 10
Uehara as closer from day one (worked less though)
Miller available all year
Youngsters with a year more experience: Workman, Britton, Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, plus Hinojosa, Wright & others.
Pierzynski > Salty
Ross all year > Lava
2012 & 2014 Middy > 2013 Middy
JBJ > Jacoby
Hopefully no Nava/Gomes/Carp in RF
Herrera > Holt/Snyder/Ciriaco
Victorino with 30 more starts
Pedey returning to career norm (about 50 more points in OPS)
Gomes hitting LHPs like he did before 2013
Bogey possibly outhitting the 2013 Drew
Middy hitting more like 2012 than 2013
Napoli hitting like he normally has done every 3 years (this is his "due year")
Carp getting more PAs
While it's true, a list of possible declines is long as well, there is great potential for something special to happen again in 2014. I really would not be shocked if we score the same amount of runs as last year. I think our pitching is better on paper, and our fielding is close to the same (worse at SS, but better at C, CF and maybe 3B & RF)