That's pretty deep all around, but you never know what can happen in a season. I still think we can afford to trade Dempster and barely notice he is gone. We should have enough in-house solutions to solve any issue that arises. The biggest problem might be having to go through 4-5 of these guys to finally find one that does well. By then, we may be 8 out and the hole to deep to get out of.
IMO might make more sense to trade Peavy. Dempster could more easily move to bullpen role due to previous expierence. Think Peavy has more value to other teams and of the 2 and is more likely to breakdown?
Certainly Peavy would bring back a better return, and I agree that Dempster could transition to the pen much easier than Peavy, but I don't see paying a long/middle relief pitcher $13M. I'd rather just trade both.
Last year we used 26 pitchers, including 18 with over 20 IP, but we only used 12 pitchers for over 40 IP: Lester, Lackey, Dempster, Doubront, Buchholz, Uehara, Tazawa, Breslow, Miller, Bailey, Peavy and Workman. Only Bailey from this list did not finish the season on the 25 man roster.
Health to pitching staff has been a key to all 3 of our last WS winning staffs. Last year good health to the starters, lots of depth in the pen and a brilliant job by Koji. This year we could suffer an injury or 2 and would not surprise me if we did not miss a beat.
You really can see a strong corelation between WS rings and the lack of injuries to the starting rotation.
2003- 139 GS from out original top 5 starters (+10 Suppan, 5 Kim & 5 Mendoza)
2004- 157 GS from out original top 5 starters ... WOW!
2005- 138 GS from out original top 5 starters (+16 by W Miller)
2006- 114 GS from out original top 5 starters (+ 10 Snyder, 8 D Wells, 6 Tav, DiNardo & Johnsn)
2007- 128 GS from out original top 5 starters (+ Tavarez & 7 Gabbard)
2008- 126 GS from out original top 5 starters (+15 Buch, 9 Mastrsn, & 8 Byrd)
2009- 108 GS from out original top 5 starters (+54 by Wake, Buch, Mastrsn, Byrd, Taz & Bowdn)
2010- 139 GS from out original top 5 starters (+19 by Wake)
2011- 110 GS from out original top 5 starters (+23 by Wake & 39 Buch, Miller, Bedard & Weiland)
2012- 123 GS from out original top 5 starters (+ 28 from Cook & Bard)
2013- 139 GS from out original top 5 starters (+10 by Peavy)
Workman played a big role for us last year, but so many other pitchers got a chance before him: Webster, Wright, Aceves, Mortensen, Morales, Wilson, Hanrahan, Bard, de la Torre, Beato, and probably others.
Yes, there may be multiple injuries this year, but there are few other factors to take into account:
1) Uehara will start the year as our closer. That's good, but his workload will have to be managed well to avoid burnout or injury. He probably should not repeat his 74 IP of 2013.
Think the Mujica signing really helps here, and the way Miller was pitching when he went down probably could have filled in that role as well.
We could see Breslow and Taz close a game here and there as well.
2) Buchholz could go from 16 to 32 starts.
Would love to see it but til it happens not so sure. I would like to see him just show up healthy for ST. He's a big key for us, he stays healthy for entire year he probably finishes top 5 in CY voting.
Agreed. I wouldn't bet on it, but he just represents one of many chances of getting more IP in 2014 than 2013.
3) Peavy could go from 10 to 32 starts. That's 38 more starts total that we did not have in 2013.
This one I definately don't see happening. Think RS would be smart to manage his starts and give some of the young guns a chance at times. Think Peavy's yrs of 30 starts are behind him. Make up an injury give him a couple of weeks off a couple times in season to keep him strong.
I think the 22 more starts from Peavy that (in theory) take the place of Webster's and some of Dempster's starts could be a big bonanza, if he pitches like he can and has.
4) Doubront could go from 162 IP to 190+, but he needs to improve on his control/ pitch count.
This I could see happening. Really could see Doubie making the biggest jump of all the starters this year. Really believe with his stuff if he's physically ready he could become a solid #3. Think what he accomplished in the WS will only help him.
I have been harsh on Doubie and his conditioning, and even though his WHIP did not improve that much last year, I saw improvement. He still needs another step up to be a force, but as I have always said, "the kid has nasty stuff".
5) Miller missed a lot of time last year. He could go from 31 IP to 50ish.
Another guy who really seems to be just coming into his own and could dominate late in games. RS have the makings of an unbelievable BP.
Coupled with Breslow, we have a strong left-side combo in the pen. (Britton in the wings could help again.)
6) Workman and Britton had 63 IP in 2013, but started in AAA. They could go from 63 to 163 easily.
I really like what Workman did for RS last yr. Believe better suited to be a starter, but on RS no place to go. But think he should get 1st opportunity if someone goes down. Britton wouldn't surprise me if he starts yr as starter in Pawtucket to get built back up. Tough being a pitcher on RS team these days. Both these guys belong on MLB roster unfortunately not going to happen due to options and depth of staff.
I wouldn't be surprised if Workman starts out as a starter in AAA.
7) Wright, Ely and Hinojosa are question marks, but if one is doing well in AAA, they could help.
8) The pitching prospects are one year older and closer to joining the big club: Webster, de la Rosa, Ranaudo, Barnes, Owens and/or Pena could all get a chance to start.
After Workman see the order being [depending on how they're pitching in minors] Webster- De la Rosa- Raunado- Wright- Hinojosa w/ Barnes/ Owens a possibility if throwing well late in the year.
I don't disagree, but if Wright is throwing well, he could be first.
9) The pen could be bolstered by some from the list above or Wilson, Ramirez, Layne, Villareal, Mijares, Watanabe, and/or Valdez.
One thing I have togive Ben a lot of credit is the depth he has assembled for the entire roster, but most importantly the pitching staff. Even with all the young up and comers, signing a guy like Mujica is a very wise move.
I was calling for signing Mujica weeks before Ben got him. I agree: great signing!
10) We should have a better staff supporting catching group this year with a healthy Ross and Pierzynski replacing Salty. There may be a learning curve, but overall, it could be a significant help to this year's staff. (Plus, this is the second year under new coaching/managing, so expectations are known, and comfort with the routine should be improved.)
This scares me a little. Two late 30's catchers could come back to haunt us. I know AJ has a terrific track record for staying on the field. But at some point this could catch up to him. But Butler and hopefully Vasquez could be ready early if one went down. I have no faith in Lavarnway as a catcher and think RS should do him a favor and give him a chance elsewhere.
In terms of just getting the most out of the pitching staff, I can't see any of our current catchers other than Lava doing worse than Salty/Lava did last year.