A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    This team is probably not as good as last years but it still should contend. We will miss Ellsbury and it is unlikely our pitching holds up as well as it did last year ( the starters at least ) but I'm not here to be a negative nancy. I think we should still be favored to win the division. Buchholz and Bogaerts might be the keys this year. If we can get a full year of solid performance from Buchholz we go a long way to winning the division right there and Lackey, Lester, Peavy and Doubront look to be consistent. Workman looks like a solid #6. 

    As with every team, having top starting pitching sets everything else up.

    I expect some dip from Napoli. I'm not sure I think Ortiz losing so much weight is actually a good thing. 

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from javaukti1. Show javaukti1's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    [/QUOTE]


    Yes, there's a few positions with high potential for big gains, but Pedey has done it already, so it's bit more believable, especially when you consider he is still in mid-prime.

    Another interesting case could be made for Napoli. He has had a pretty unigue career trend: every third year is a big one. This is year 3.

    OPS   Year

    .815  2006

    .794  2007

    .960  2008

    .842  2009

    .784  2010

    1.046  2011

    .812  2012

    .842  2013

    ____  2014

    [/QUOTE]

    I think one year removed from catcher, he could be more comfortable as a full time first baseman.  Of course then again, the way he played the position last year one could argue he handled the full time transition with complete ease.  I think there is a very good chance we get a least the same level of production from him next year. 

    The slumps can be a headache at times, but overall he is a very valuable player.  One thing I find very interesting is that Mike Napoli led ALL of baseball with pitches seen per plate appearance last year.  So even when he was slumping, he made pitchers work.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I can't think of ANY reason why Nap's triannual production jump is anything but a bit of statistical flotsam. BAsed on calandar he is no more due to have a big year at Fenway than I am.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I can't think of ANY reason why Nap's triannual production jump is anything but a bit of statistical flotsam. BAsed on calandar he is no more due to have a big year at Fenway than I am.

    I don't trust the 3 year trend either, but it does show that periodically, Napoli puts together a solid season. We all know he isas  streaky as they get, so maybe his good seasons are just about having an extra long good streak, more than one good streak, or a shorter bad streak.

    My point is, we have potential to see a big gain at 1B. I'm not predicting it, but the chance is there. I think we have a better chance at seeing a big gain at 3B, due to how bad the numbers were last year and not so much about a high faith in MIddy- Cecchini or Bogey at 3B.

    I see 2B as our next best chance for a large gain and maybe SS our 3rd best chance.

    Although a lot has been said about losing Ellsbury, and I agree it is a big loss, his OPS is not that hard to approach. We had a .771 CF OPS last year- the third worst position on the team- just barely ahead of SS.

    Here's another look at the 2013 positional OPS:

    .958 DH

     

    .841 1B

     

    .790  LF

    .787   C

    .786  2B

    .786  RF

     

    .774  CF

    .771  SS

     

    .683  3B

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from javaukti1. Show javaukti1's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I can't think of ANY reason why Nap's triannual production jump is anything but a bit of statistical flotsam. BAsed on calandar he is no more due to have a big year at Fenway than I am.

    I don't trust the 3 year trend either, but it does show that periodically, Napoli puts together a solid season. We all know he isas  streaky as they get, so maybe his good seasons are just about having an extra long good streak, more than one good streak, or a shorter bad streak.

    My point is, we have potential to see a big gain at 1B. I'm not predicting it, but the chance is there. I think we have a better chance at seeing a big gain at 3B, due to how bad the numbers were last year and not so much about a high faith in MIddy- Cecchini or Bogey at 3B.

    I see 2B as our next best chance for a large gain and maybe SS our 3rd best chance.

    Although a lot has been said about losing Ellsbury, and I agree it is a big loss, his OPS is not that hard to approach. We had a .771 CF OPS last year- the third worst position on the team- just barely ahead of SS.

    Here's another look at the 2013 positional OPS:

    .958 DH

     

    .841 1B

     

    .790  LF

    .787   C

    .786  2B

    .786  RF

     

    .774  CF

    .771  SS

     

    .683  3B

    [/QUOTE]
    Now it makes sense. He's a streaky player who has had break out years in the past, and he's due. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What a great team! Can't wait for the Duck boats. Tickets were going for as high as $12000 for this game? Unreal!

    2nd team to win the series after finishing the previous season in last place! Wow!

    It will be extremely interesting what they do next year. The only guy I see them retaining though is potentially Napoli. They need a 1st baseman and he is probably the best one available. Defensively he was solid and with Bogaerts at SS next year that will be even more important. He can hit good pitching, which is vastly underated as a player characteristic. Not saying I'm enamored with him but we probably bring him back if at all reasonable.

    But you know, as crazy as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Ortiz at 1st some next year with another solution potentially available some at DH. He's really not that bad defensively and it we an add a Carlos Beltran or some other player with Napoli's salary and still have Nava, Carp and others available to share 1st is that all that bad an option?

    It's too dangerous in terms of him getting hurt but it sure is tempting. It is at least worthy of consideration. Maybe for about 6 nanoseconds before saying....NAHH! 

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think we can risk an inury to Papi playing 1B.

    I still think Bogery at 3B and Middy at 1B might be our future.

    We need a #4/5 hitter to protect Papi, but does not play 1B.

    [/QUOTE]

    I also have to say no to Papi at 1B for the same reason moon.  I still want to see how Lav looks if they give him time at 1B otherwise the kid deserves a shot with another club ASAP by means of trade.  I also agree Bogy might eventually be our 3B (another Machado type) if Middy struggles but with Nap still here Middy may not be around long enough to see 1B. 

    Checchini may end up the guy to change positions over to 1B when Naps contract is over.  Or who knows maybe Checchini will finally improve his defense at 3B and Bogy could grow into 1B.  Either way, with or without Middy we seem to have two pretty good OB guys in Garin and Bogy at some point even if Chec turns into our next DH.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I also have to say no to Papi at 1B for the same reason moon.  I still want to see how Lav looks if they give him time at 1B otherwise the kid deserves a shot with another club ASAP by means of trade.  I also agree Bogy might eventually be our 3B (another Machado type) if Middy struggles but with Nap still here Middy may not be around long enough to see 1B. 

    Checchini may end up the guy to change positions over to 1B when Naps contract is over.  Or who knows maybe Checchini will finally improve his defense at 3B and Bogy could grow into 1B.  Either way, with or without Middy we seem to have two pretty good OB guys in Garin and Bogy at some point even if Chec turns into our next DH.

    My guess is we will fill the 3B, 1B and DH positions in our extended future from within the system. These are often expensive positions to fill and stay even or better than most clubs.

    3B: Middy, (Rivero), Bogey, Cecchini, Devers (Betts?)

    1B: (Napoli/Carp/Papi) Middy, Cecchini, Bogey, Lava, Snyder, T Shaw

    DH: (Papi/Gomes/Carp/Nava) Cecchini, Betts, Middy, Lava, Hassan, Brentz

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Fangraphs put out their top 100 prospects list:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-100-prospects/

    7 in the top 98!

    6 in the top 72!!

     

    2) Bogaerts

    35) Bradley

    51) Cecchini

    59) Betts

    66) Swihart

    72) Owens

    98) Barnes

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think we might keep David around another 3 years even. The guy looks like he wants to keep playing. With 3 more years he is probably a lock for the hall. I know things can change quickly for a guy with his body type but he sure looked good last year and even if he ends up hitting .260 with 20 HR he might be worth keeping around.

    I don't see Betts as a DH but lots of people will want to get him in the lineup somewhere if he keeps producing like last yer.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Fangraphs put out their top 100 prospects list:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-100-prospects/

    7 in the top 98!

    6 in the top 72!!

     

    2) Bogaerts

    35) Bradley

    51) Cecchini

    59) Betts

    66) Swihart

    72) Owens

    98) Barnes

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Cechinni was rated higher than Moran, who was a top 5 or 6 type pick last year. Matilda, we have a stud coming up the turnpike!

    Man, Ranaudo just isn't getting much love is he, even after a real decent year in 2013. Can't say I disagree but he's almost definitely a mlb starter I would think, even though the odds are against most guys at his projected level. When the going gets tough he still can throw in a downward plane and at least be decent for an NL team I would think. 

    He needs that breaking ball to be a stud. Kind of giving up on his change. And can he stay healthy another year? He is nearing whatever he is going to be. By the end of this year, play him or trade him.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Fangraphs put out their top 100 prospects list:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-top-100-prospects/

    7 in the top 98!

    6 in the top 72!!

     

    2) Bogaerts

    35) Bradley

    51) Cecchini

    59) Betts

    66) Swihart

    72) Owens

    98) Barnes

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Cechinni was rated higher than Moran, who was a top 5 or 6 type pick last year. Matilda, we have a stud coming up the turnpike!

    Man, Ranaudo just isn't getting much love is he, even after a real decent year in 2013. Can't say I disagree but he's almost definitely a mlb starter I would think, even though the odds are against most guys at his projected level. When the going gets tough he still can throw in a downward plane and at least be decent for an NL team I would think. 

    He needs that breaking ball to be a stud. Kind of giving up on his change. And can he stay healthy another year? He is nearing whatever he is going to be. By the end of this year, play him or trade him.

    [/QUOTE]

    If he stays healthy another year he will get some love.  Truth be told he just doesn't have that high of a ceiling, but I also think he probably has a floor as high or higher than 1/2 those guys in the top 100, but I'd say his lower ceiling mixed in with his inability to stay health for two consecutive seasons is really hurting him.

    I think if he stayed healthy in 2012 he could have easily been in the 50-75 range.  In the end, the only thing that matters is if he can/can't help the big league team down the line.

    I hope he uses the snub to motivate himself, we've have yet to see him healthy in back to back seasons, and that could do wonders for his progress.  He very well may contribute to the big league team later this year.  I remember he was drafted with Workman and I always kinda tied them two in together when following prospects and we saw Workman reach the majors last year.  I suspect Ranaudo has the same projection as workman right now.  Not an elite pitcher but a solid starter who can stick in a role in a MLB rotation.  

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to craze4sox's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    What a great team! Can't wait for the Duck boats. Tickets were going for as high as $12000 for this game? Unreal!

    2nd team to win the series after finishing the previous season in last place! Wow!

    It will be extremely interesting what they do next year. The only guy I see them retaining though is potentially Napoli. They need a 1st baseman and he is probably the best one available. Defensively he was solid and with Bogaerts at SS next year that will be even more important. He can hit good pitching, which is vastly underated as a player characteristic. Not saying I'm enamored with him but we probably bring him back if at all reasonable.

    But you know, as crazy as it sounds, I wouldn't mind seeing Ortiz at 1st some next year with another solution potentially available some at DH. He's really not that bad defensively and it we an add a Carlos Beltran or some other player with Napoli's salary and still have Nava, Carp and others available to share 1st is that all that bad an option?

    It's too dangerous in terms of him getting hurt but it sure is tempting. It is at least worthy of consideration. Maybe for about 6 nanoseconds before saying....NAHH! 

    [/QUOTE]

    I don't think we can risk an inury to Papi playing 1B.

    I still think Bogery at 3B and Middy at 1B might be our future.

    We need a #4/5 hitter to protect Papi, but does not play 1B.

    [/QUOTE]

    I also have to say no to Papi at 1B for the same reason moon.  I still want to see how Lav looks if they give him time at 1B otherwise the kid deserves a shot with another club ASAP by means of trade.  I also agree Bogy might eventually be our 3B (another Machado type) if Middy struggles but with Nap still here Middy may not be around long enough to see 1B. 

    Checchini may end up the guy to change positions over to 1B when Naps contract is over.  Or who knows maybe Checchini will finally improve his defense at 3B and Bogy could grow into 1B.  Either way, with or without Middy we seem to have two pretty good OB guys in Garin and Bogy at some point even if Chec turns into our next DH.

    [/QUOTE]


    Machado may still move back to SS with Hardy a FA after this year. Hes only at 3b because Hardy is signed. It wasnt because he couldnt play SS, but because he was ready and needed a spot. Kinda like Bogaerts last year. I agree He may just well end up there for his career though.

    I really think WMB will be better this year (fingers crossed). Id love to see an IF of Middy 3b Bogey SS Pedey 2b. Not sure about 1b right now with Naps there for at least this year, Cecchini should be ready for his debut this year and FT play in 2015 (whether he stays at 3b will depend), and Lavarnway now being worked in at 1b (FINALLY!!!). This is why we NEED to play all these kids fulltime this year, and why I dont want to resign Drew. Lets see what we have and start to solidify some positions.

    They all have good defense, so Im really not worried where they play. Maybe not GG defense but none of them are even close to a liability.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Machado may still move back to SS with Hardy a FA after this year. Hes only at 3b because Hardy is signed. It wasnt because he couldnt play SS, but because he was ready and needed a spot. Kinda like Bogaerts last year. I agree He may just well end up there for his career though.

    I heard rumors of the O's working on extending Hardy.

     

    I really think WMB will be better this year (fingers crossed). Id love to see an IF of Middy 3b Bogey SS Pedey 2b. Not sure about 1b right now with Naps there for at least this year, Cecchini should be ready for his debut this year and FT play in 2015 (whether he stays at 3b will depend), and Lavarnway now being worked in at 1b (FINALLY!!!).

    Naps is signed for 2 years.

     

    This is why we NEED to play all these kids fulltime this year, and why I dont want to resign Drew. Lets see what we have and start to solidify some positions.

    I agree, but  I can see the merit of keeping Bogey in AAA to gain the extra year of control and to learn 3B. In this way, Bogey would still get 600+ PAs over the season, Drew would get 550+, and Middy could get 550+ as long as he does well.

    I like our team as is, but going with 3 kids (Bogey, JBJ & Middy) after a WS ring is pretty risky.

    They all have good defense, so Im really not worried where they play. Maybe not GG defense but none of them are even close to a liability.

    True, unless Middy plays 3B like he did last year.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    • The Red Sox haven't offered Drew a contract for longer than one year, John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports (via Twitter).  Drew would like at least a one-year contract and an option, a source tells Tomase.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    • The Red Sox haven't offered Drew a contract for longer than one year, John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports (via Twitter).  Drew would like at least a one-year contract and an option, a source tells Tomase.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew had a chance to take Boston's QO.  Boras and Drew have close to zero leverage.  

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    • The Red Sox haven't offered Drew a contract for longer than one year, John Tomase of the Boston Herald reports (via Twitter).  Drew would like at least a one-year contract and an option, a source tells Tomase.

    [/QUOTE]

    Drew had a chance to take Boston's QO.  Boras and Drew have close to zero leverage.  

    [/QUOTE]

    What are the odds he doesn't sign until after the draft, and we get no pick?

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think it's possible but still not very likely Moon. My bet is still the Yanks.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:

    Drew had a chance to take Boston's QO.  Boras and Drew have close to zero leverage.  

    Scott Boras and Stephen Drew could have some leverage if the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Twins and any mystery team maintain an interest.

    The leverage drops significantly when the number of suitors drops to one.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think it's possible but still not very likely Moon. My bet is still the Yanks.

    [/QUOTE]

    Maybe if his price drops more. I doubt the Yanks would have signed Roberts, Ryan and Johnson, if Drew was even remotely on their radar.

    I do think Drew would make them a much better team, if Jeter would move to 2B (or 3B), but that's not happening.

    Word is, HanRam is probably going to extend with the Dodgers, so a 2-3 year deal with Drew makes more sense with the Yanks than with the Mets or Sox, but I think the Yanks are looking to beef up their staff more than infield.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I think the Yanks will be a heck of a lot more interested in Drew if Hanley extends with the Dodgers. And that could well happen in spring training. 

    Drew is really a good fit for the Yanks. Good pop to RF. Ability to play in a big market. Solid, dependable defense. 

    I think they want to sign him but they just want to get their cost down. Drew knows what his value is and doesn't want to give in. It's an impasse. The Yanks have spent a ton of money and are not digging that 50% or so tax penalty. Drew expects at least a $40 mil deal. With Boras as his agents it's like 2 Rhinos charging at each other and that collision is not pretty!

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I think the Yanks will be a heck of a lot more interested in Drew if Hanley extends with the Dodgers. And that could well happen in spring training. 

    Drew is really a good fit for the Yanks. Good pop to RF. Ability to play in a big market. Solid, dependable defense. 

    I think they want to sign him but they just want to get their cost down. Drew knows what his value is and doesn't want to give in. It's an impasse. The Yanks have spent a ton of money and are not digging that 50% or so tax penalty. Drew expects at least a $40 mil deal. With Boras as his agents it's like 2 Rhinos charging at each other and that collision is not pretty!

    [/QUOTE]

    The Yanks appear to be the only team that can afford to sign him for 3 years, something I'm sure he wants more than anything, otherwise he'd have taken the QO.

    Now that Jete is retiring, Drew can slid into the FT SS role next year and 2016 as well. With Jete's health a concern and sketchy players at 2B and 3B, he seems to be a fit, but with their budget issues and a higher need in the pen, I'm not sure the price will ever get to a point both can agree on.

    Maybe Drew settles on a 1 year deal and tries again to prove his high worth. If HanRam extends, he'd be the top of the SS free agent market next winter.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Yankees are scouting Cuban prospect Aledmys Diaz.  If they sign him that could be their SS solution.  Diaz may also be the final thing determining Drew's fate. 

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Yankees are scouting Cuban prospect Aledmys Diaz.  If they sign him that could be their SS solution.  Diaz may also be the final thing determining Drew's fate. 

    [/QUOTE]

    True enough.

    And, the Yanks are rumored to be poised to spend big on international free agents.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Jid, I am in Fort Myers Beach this week--15-21 Feb.  I don't know if you're there yet but I would like to meet you at the workouts if you are.  Could you respond and let me know?  If you are there we could chose a day...Thanks.  If not, I'm looking forward to your reports...Critter

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jid, I am in Fort Myers Beach this week--15-21 Feb.  I don't know if you're there yet but I would like to meet you at the workouts if you are.  Could you respond and let me know?  If you are there we could chose a day...Thanks.  If not, I'm looking forward to your reports...Critter

    [/QUOTE]

    We're all looking forwards to those reports: great reads last year!

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Jid, I am in Fort Myers Beach this week--15-21 Feb.  I don't know if you're there yet but I would like to meet you at the workouts if you are.  Could you respond and let me know?  If you are there we could chose a day...Thanks.  If not, I'm looking forward to your reports...Critter

    [/QUOTE]

    Not there until the 25th, sorry. Believe me with the weather we've had here lately I wish I was there two weeks ago! Yesterday was another 15 inches of snow with more due tomorrow. Getting too old for this....

     

Share