A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to jcri's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Having fun in FM beach, boat ride up town, walks on beach, trip to Englewood, my top secret Fla. location.  Going to Jet Blue on Thurs. to see first full squad workout.  Big article in local paper about Pierz. who started here for Twins 20 years ago.  Will try to do a "sights and sounds" report on Thurs. night.  This weather is perfect...

    [/QUOTE]

    I envy you.

    We may be going to Cancun in March, so I guess I can't complain.

    [/QUOTE]

    Counting the days...be there on the 25th.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    I love the Cordero pick up but I think we may still add another reliever. Cherington is all about depth, and then more depth!

    Moon, this data is right up your alley, regarding catcher defense:

    http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I love the Cordero pick up but I think we may still add another reliever. Cherington is all about depth, and then more depth!

    Moon, this data is right up your alley, regarding catcher defense:

    http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

    [/QUOTE]

    Interesting that Salty was...

    6th in 2011 at +13.8  (7500+ sample size/8th out of 33 with 5000+)

    5th in 2012 at +6.8 (10th out of 31 with 5000+ sample size)

    7th in 2013 at -2.6 (17th out of 32 with 5000+ sample size)

    ...in catcher framing.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    With all apologies to Jid, your reporter will give his impressions on his first visit ever to Jet Blue Park in sunny 85 degrees FM.  Stopped at Denny's for a "Grand Slam" which delayed arrival.  Rushed out to back fields to see lots of work on pitchers' fielding drills (which have been going on all week according to papers and maybe a special point of emphasis this year).  Butterfield, a good Maine boy, hitting grounders right at mound, throws to first; bunts to 3rd side, throws to 3rd, bunts in front of home, hard charge, catch in glove (surprise to me), throw underhand to catcher.  Watched all young pitchers as starters were throwing further out.  OK I don't know who Celestino is but wow, is he tall.  De La Rosa looks sort of fat to me.  Webster and Britton fumbled a couple of times.  Owens is also very tall and Barnes looks very crisp on drills.  Infrequently Butterfield would stop a player as he completed his throw, pull him off a few feet, and talk quietly, point a little with his bat.  He did the same running the base running drills.

    OK, only one guy in the park was wearing a suit--John Henry with a black umbrella.  When he walked up to the cage to watch bp, he got a hand from the crowd.  One other guy got a hand whenever he walked by--Big Papi.  

    In the running drills which went on for some time, they all looked good to me with the exception of Carp who looked slower and a little awkward.  Sometimes Butterfield would tell them to slow down but he was particular "how" they did it.  Once he squatted close to 1st with his finger pointing at the very corner and told them to push off exactly there one by one.  Gomes looked especially good to me, really put himself into it.

    Batting next.  Middie, Bogie, Sizemore all tall, Middie looks especially big and strong.  Papi slim, the best I've ever seen him.  Bogie looks strong too.  This was the first full squad practice, but as they phased through several times they started looking better, hitting line drives.  The two guys who got oohs and ahhs today were Naps and Bogie who started hitting big looping drives deep in the outfield.  Bogie hit almost everything to right center.  Gomes didn't hit the ball deep but had a very live bat, lots of noise, and he literally jumped into the cage each time, looking like he wanted to kick a little...Maybe this is why guys love him.  

    Pedey went first every time, the Captain?  He and Sizemore did everything easily.  Butterfield talked more to Sizemore than the others.

    Sorry if this is boring, hope everyone got something of interest.  The park is beautiful and Jid will be there to take over next week.  Critter

     

     

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Thanks for the report. I love hearing first hand stuff like this.

    I can't wait to see a real game.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Crit sounds like you had a great day. As I've written, the times spent on the back fields are often more interesting than the games, especially the real early games. Interesting point about the sound of Gomes BP; there's no doubt that strong guys making strong contact also make a different noise than average guys.

    Totally unrelated, the signing of Capuano could ba a big move for little money. I don't know him personally, but being from western Mass I know a lot of people who know him well and everybody raves about what a great kid he is and what a great family he comes from. A Cathedral guy Amp. He bailed out the Dodgers last year in a playoff game with some very solid relief. Also has the best pick-off move in MLB.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Me too Moon but I found out it's harder than it looks--you can't be everywhere at once so you have to choose.  These three were all close so I could easily jump from one to next while starters were much further off, so I didn't go out.  Big happy crowd and I left out one thing:  Piersinzski came to batting cage from further fields, chatted with the manager and jumped in to hit.  He looks big.  At some point a raspy voice yelled from the crowd, "Hey Fella, welcome to Bawston!"  He looked good hitting.  Jid will do better with the steak and potatoes next week.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from jcri. Show jcri's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Hey Jid, it was a wonderful day.  It was a dream.  The baton is back with you--I was just holding your place...

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Thanks Crit...Great Job! Really!

    Capuano is the new Morales! Looks like another LOOGY to me, mainly a long relief LOOGY. If he was good enough to make the Dodgers playoff roster, he's probably good enough to play for us.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Thanks Crit...Great Job! Really!

    Capuano is the new Morales! Looks like another LOOGY to me, mainly a long relief LOOGY. If he was good enough to make the Dodgers playoff roster, he's probably good enough to play for us.

    [/QUOTE]

    The last 3 years Capuano has started 84 games and relieved in 5. Based on this, it appears he is more of a spot starter- long relief guy than a lefty specialist. However, when you look at his splits, I see your point:

    OPS against

                   2013  2012  2011

    vs LHPs  .566    .599   .653

    vs RHPs  .858   .746   .818

    This shows his striking ability to get lefties out, but can he do it in short relief situations?  Hard to know.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from ampoule. Show ampoule's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to jidgef's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Crit sounds like you had a great day. As I've written, the times spent on the back fields are often more interesting than the games, especially the real early games. Interesting point about the sound of Gomes BP; there's no doubt that strong guys making strong contact also make a different noise than average guys.

    Totally unrelated, the signing of Capuano could ba a big move for little money. I don't know him personally, but being from western Mass I know a lot of people who know him well and everybody raves about what a great kid he is and what a great family he comes from. A Cathedral guy Amp. He bailed out the Dodgers last year in a playoff game with some very solid relief. Also has the best pick-off move in MLB.

    [/QUOTE]


    Hey Jid, West Springield resident too I think I read. 

    I worked in WS for years and have been tapping into my memory banks to try to remember if the family were customers....no luck....oh well.

    Look forward to reading your GREAT reports.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Updated with Capuano's expected signing...

    2014 Red Sox Player Payroll Budget

    (Luxury Tax Dollars)

    $ 16.5M Lackey (then 1 year at league min)

    $16M  Napoli (1 year then FA)

    $14.5M Peavy (then FA)

    $13.75M Pedroia

    $ 13M Ortiz (then FA)

    $13M Victorino (to ’15)

    $13M Lester (then FA)

    $8.25M AJ P (then FA)

    $7.5M Buchholz (to ’15, then club options at $13M & $13.5M)

    $5M Gomes (then FA)

    $4.75M Mujica (to '15, then FA)

    $4.25M Uehara (option is vested)

    $3.125M Breslow ($4M club option in ’15 w. $0.1M buyout)

    $3.1M Ross (then FA)

    $2.25M Capuano (then FA)

    $2.15 Badenhop (then FA)

    $1.9M Miller (then FA)

    $1.4M Carp

    $1.3M Herrera (then 1 arb)

    $1.275M Tazawa (then 2 arbs)

    $0.75M Sizemore (+$1.25 Roster bonuses & 4M performance bones)

     

    Sub TOTAL: ~$148M 

     

    Estimated Pre-Arb  Player Total: $12M

    Doubront, Nava,  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Britton, Butler, Cecchini, de la Rosa, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

     

    Total Estimated 2014 Red Sox Payroll Budget:$160M 

    Add the player pension fee of about $10.8M and the $3.9M payment to the Dodgers... 

     

    Total Luxury Limit Budget for 2014: ~$175M

     

     

    This leaves about $14M to spend and still be below the 

     

    limit,assuming Sizemore and others do not reach their

     

    bonus qualifications.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Capuano will get 5 million if he hits targets - for appearances or days not on DL I would assume.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Capuano will get 5 million if he hits targets - for appearances or days not on DL I would assume.

    [/QUOTE]

    True, and others, especially Sizemore, have significant bonuses.

    One reason I think the Sox like the budget space wiggle room that Dempster provided to keep us under the luxury limit this season.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but some huge shoes to fill:

    Papi, Lester, Victorino, Lackey, Uehara...

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from 808soxfan. Show 808soxfan's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but some huge shoes to fill:

    Papi, Lester, Victorino, Lackey, Uehara...

    [/QUOTE]


    That is true, but Stanton will be "unaffordable" by Miami standards next year. He got a 12-fold increase in salary to $6.5M this year. Imagine if he has a good season in 2014.

    I wonder what will happen if some of our young prospects get a chance to show their talent early this year, and Miami is well out of it by the trade deadline...


    Just sayin....

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Just don't think this is the RS way. Think they have learned a lesson. Only place I see RS spending some $ would be 1B in 2 years unless they decide to move WMB over if Cecchini forces his way onto to team. Just think RS have been burned by big contracts too much. Think we are now starting to see the player developemental machine that we sort of got sidetracked away from after the 07 season, when it became all about the TV ratings and feeding the monster so to speak. RS will spend, but I really think they will be VERY PICKY. They were willing to resign Ells the $ just got too high and they stuck to their plan. Just because RS will have $ to spend not sure they will do just for the sake of spending it. With all the young pitching [both starters and relief] and young position talent w/ exception of 1B, unless something goes very wrong, not sure I see RS spending big in FA?

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 



    Just don't think this is the RS way. Think they have learned a lesson. Only place I see RS spending some $ would be 1B in 2 years unless they decide to move WMB over if Cecchini forces his way onto to team. Just think RS have been burned by big contracts too much. Think we are now starting to see the player developemental machine that we sort of got sidetracked away from after the 07 season, when it became all about the TV ratings and feeding the monster so to speak. RS will spend, but I really think they will be VERY PICKY. They were willing to resign Ells the $ just got too high and they stuck to their plan. Just because RS will have $ to spend not sure they will do just for the sake of spending it. With all the young pitching [both starters and relief] and young position talent w/ exception of 1B, unless something goes very wrong, not sure I see RS spending big in FA?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The Sox are also not going to be a team that spends less than 100 million a year.  THey have 32 million on the books for 2016....they are going to be spending somewhere.  yes about 24 million will go to arbitration and medical benefits.  But that still leaves them 133 under the cap.

    Heck if they might be able to extend Lester and Ortiz and still have 100 million to spend that year (of course they will have others on the books by then)

    I'm all about not spending like the dodgers and the Yankees, but I don't want to operate like the Kansas City Royals as well.  The Sox will sign big time free agents, when the time is right.  Lucchino even eluded to that today,  If the Sox had over 100 million a year to spend and Kershaw hit FA, you better believe they would bid on him.

    I think they will continue to look for the Drew/Napoli/Victorino types, and try to leverage those deals to get more draft picks when they can.  They will continue to use that Q.O. to not just lock up a good player for another year or gain draft picks, but also improve their position to negotiate. 

    When the time is right, they will spend big....it will happen eventually.  As long as they put the farm first and use their wealth to extend our own talent first I'am absolutely fine with that, but if the timing is right I don't mind the big name either.

    I also think if Cecchini and WMB are ever on the same team, it's Cecchini at 1B of LF...everything I've heard about the two has Will as the better defender.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, but some huge shoes to fill:

    Papi, Lester, Victorino, Lackey, Uehara...

    [/QUOTE]


    I'm sure are pitching depth will be adequate to replace 2/3 of those pitchers.  And I think we will be at some kind of rotational DH by then as well.  With WMB/Bogaerts/Betts/Pedroia/Cecchini all here or in the pipeline I think we will be ok. 

    Victorino is a big hole, I think we either trade or sign a big time corner outfielder within the next year and a half.

    But we will have a ridiculous amount of money to spend the next couple years.  Even accounting for all the arbitration contracts and assuming we extend Lester and Ortiz through 2015.  We will a TON of money to spend.  Of course I'm hoping we use it to extend some of our own guys, but for the right guy.....I'd loe to bring in some talent.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Just don't think this is the RS way. Think they have learned a lesson. Only place I see RS spending some $ would be 1B in 2 years unless they decide to move WMB over if Cecchini forces his way onto to team. Just think RS have been burned by big contracts too much. Think we are now starting to see the player developemental machine that we sort of got sidetracked away from after the 07 season, when it became all about the TV ratings and feeding the monster so to speak. RS will spend, but I really think they will be VERY PICKY. They were willing to resign Ells the $ just got too high and they stuck to their plan. Just because RS will have $ to spend not sure they will do just for the sake of spending it. With all the young pitching [both starters and relief] and young position talent w/ exception of 1B, unless something goes very wrong, not sure I see RS spending big in FA?

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think when the tsime is right, and the player is right, the Sox will spend big and long. It very well may be at 1B in a couple years or pitching sooner than we may hope.

    I like the idea of supplementing our homegrown players with mid tier FAs- preferably the best of the non QO free agent types. I like balance over a couple grossly high paid superstars.

    I like our direction both here and now and going forward. We have prospects ready now or very close to being ready, but also some very highly regarded talent still years away from the bigs. Add 3 draft picks out of the top 37 or so, and we're talking blue skies for a long time... in theory.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Let's assume we extend Lester and Papi, here's what 2015 might look like:

    $ 0.8M Lackey 

    $16M  Napoli 

    $13.75M Pedroia

    ~$ 15M Ortiz 

    $13M Victorino 

    ~$20M Lester 

    $7.5M Buchholz 

    $4.75M Mujica 

    $3.14 Breslow 

    ~$1.8M Carp

    ~$1.5M Herrera 

    ~$1.5M Tazawa

    Plus: Douubront, Nava,  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Britton, Butler, Cecchini, de la Rosa, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

    This may total about $110M, add about $15M for the benefits and Dodger payoff, and we'd be at about $125M, but we have a few holes to fill, if the prospects don't pan out:

    C (No AJP/Ross)

    SP (No Peavy)

    4th OF (No Gomes)

    Closer (No Uehara)

    Pen (Several players gone, including Miller & Bedenhop)

     

    Having over $60M to spend on filling those roles, should be more than enough. Like I said, our future looks bright.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from garyhow. Show garyhow's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to garyhow's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Looking ahead to later this year, the Sox have tons of money to spend the next 2 years in free agency. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Just don't think this is the RS way. Think they have learned a lesson. Only place I see RS spending some $ would be 1B in 2 years unless they decide to move WMB over if Cecchini forces his way onto to team. Just think RS have been burned by big contracts too much. Think we are now starting to see the player developemental machine that we sort of got sidetracked away from after the 07 season, when it became all about the TV ratings and feeding the monster so to speak. RS will spend, but I really think they will be VERY PICKY. They were willing to resign Ells the $ just got too high and they stuck to their plan. Just because RS will have $ to spend not sure they will do just for the sake of spending it. With all the young pitching [both starters and relief] and young position talent w/ exception of 1B, unless something goes very wrong, not sure I see RS spending big in FA?

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    The Sox are also not going to be a team that spends less than 100 million a year.  THey have 32 million on the books for 2016....they are going to be spending somewhere.  yes about 24 million will go to arbitration and medical benefits.  But that still leaves them 133 under the cap.

    Heck if they might be able to extend Lester and Ortiz and still have 100 million to spend that year (of course they will have others on the books by then)

    I'm all about not spending like the dodgers and the Yankees, but I don't want to operate like the Kansas City Royals as well.  The Sox will sign big time free agents, when the time is right.  Lucchino even eluded to that today,  If the Sox had over 100 million a year to spend and Kershaw hit FA, you better believe they would bid on him.

    I think they will continue to look for the Drew/Napoli/Victorino types, and try to leverage those deals to get more draft picks when they can.  They will continue to use that Q.O. to not just lock up a good player for another year or gain draft picks, but also improve their position to negotiate. 

    When the time is right, they will spend big....it will happen eventually.  As long as they put the farm first and use their wealth to extend our own talent first I'am absolutely fine with that, but if the timing is right I don't mind the big name either.

    I also think if Cecchini and WMB are ever on the same team, it's Cecchini at 1B of LF...everything I've heard about the two has Will as the better defender.

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Like I said RS will spend $. Or more likely will trade some top prospects for a very close to being superstar that another team likely feels it cannot afford [G.Stanton] or other. Just don't see the RS getting involved in the Josh Hamilton or Zach Greinke type sweepstakes any time soon do to the state of there farm system or giving 175 mil to a pitcher from Japan who has yet to throw 1 MLB pitch [risk vs reward not their for RS w/ state of their farm system]. But think RS will be more involved in signing their own guys to extensions [Lester] or young guys [Owens/Barnes/Swihart] similar to what they did with [Pedroia/Lester/Buchholz]. FA has changed a great deal the past few yrs, more and more teams have $ to spend w/ all the new TV deals, just a couple of yrs ago the Brewers were forced to watch CC and Fielder leave via FA, even after strong bids to retain. This yr able to sign one of the top starters on the mkt [Garza]. FA is not the place teams will find value and RS will avoid over paying for talent same reason they let Ells walk, while a great player in his prime not worth the contract he received. This is the RS way and so far it has worked. Now lets see how all the spending works for Yanks and can it be done this way? Time will tell but I have my doubts.

     

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from craze4sox. Show craze4sox's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Let's assume we extend Lester and Papi, here's what 2015 might look like:

    $ 0.8M Lackey 

    $16M  Napoli 

    $13.75M Pedroia

    ~$ 15M Ortiz 

    $13M Victorino 

    ~$20M Lester 

    $7.5M Buchholz 

    $4.75M Mujica 

    $3.14 Breslow 

    ~$1.8M Carp

    ~$1.5M Herrera 

    ~$1.5M Tazawa

    Plus: Douubront, Nava,  Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Snyder, Webster, Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Britton, Butler, Cecchini, de la Rosa, Hassan, Holt, Vazquez, Wilson, Workman, Wright

    This may total about $110M, add about $15M for the benefits and Dodger payoff, and we'd be at about $125M, but we have a few holes to fill, if the prospects don't pan out:

    C (No AJP/Ross)

    SP (No Peavy)

    4th OF (No Gomes)

    Closer (No Uehara)

    Pen (Several players gone, including Miller & Bedenhop)

     

    Having over $60M to spend on filling those roles, should be more than enough. Like I said, our future looks bright.

    [/QUOTE]

    Without a doubt moon,

    Ben, Nieves and Farrell were great choices and our FO has done a great job getting our organization back on track very quickly which wasn't a small task.  I also think a few of the above players like Lav, Snyder and Holt will probably be replaced by other young upcoming talent.  Same may be said about Gomes, Nava and Carp if the Sox finally trade for another bonified hitter who can play every day, or in other words someone with more natural ability and a strong glove.

    There are always ways to improve an already good club and still maintain good chemistry. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from jidgef. Show jidgef's posts

    Re: A Realistic View at 2014: Part I

    Moon I'd look for that Lackey number to go up. If he looks good this spring, and all indications are that he looks great (I'll see first hand in a few days.) I think they renegotiate his deal to a much more player-friendly multiple-year deal. I doubt he ever throws another pitch for the MLB minimum. He's got lots of miles on him but he is a big, strong horse. And usually a pitcher is even better in the second year after TJS.

     

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