Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Aviles / Punto / Iglesias ?

    I highly doubt Ben (or Theo) would let 75 ABs sway them.   I remember Theo saying he didn't put much weight into September call-up numbers, I can't see the apple (Ben) falling far from the tree.  Two major problems:  sample size and uneven competition.  Will numbers against Danial Bard (trying out his 3rd and 4th pitches) mean much this ST?

    Indians manager Manny Acta said that he expects the battle for the team’s third base job to last all spring.

    However, we are lead to believe that an insanely small sample size of about 60-80 plate appearances in spring training – a good amount of which will either come against major league pitchers that are simply trying to work on things in preparation of the new season or pitchers that are soon destined to start their 2012 season in the minor leagues – will somehow prove or disprove the opinions of said scouts, coaches and front office staff that have been following Chisenhall’s progression for the last four years.



    http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/basing_roster_decisions_on_spring_training_performance_doesnt_make_any_sense/10060168

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from lowelll. Show lowelll's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    They have not only ST to figure things out but during the season also by running the shuttle between Fenway and Pawtucket. Things will fall into place eventually and decisions will be made.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from JB-3. Show JB-3's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    I agree, it is stupid to make personnel decisions based on the results of such a small sample size.  That doesn't mean that making decisions based on ST is dumb though.  ST offers a unique opportunity to see players side by side allowing for easy comparisons between players both offensively and defensively.

    ST is especially important for a team with a new manager.  What does Bobby V want to build his team around?  If it's defense, Iggy certainly has a leg up on the competition.  Versatility?  Then give the nod to the combo of Aviles/Punto.  How well does each of Iggy/Aviles/Punto take instruction?  Bobby V should have an idea by the end of ST.

    On the pitching side of things, the same general idea applies.  How is a pitchers pure stuff?  How's their command?  How quickly to they delivery the ball to the plate?  Is their delivery easy to repeat?  All important things to know about your team when making final roster decisions.

    That being said, the actual numbers from ST don't really matter.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TBSHBT1969. Show TBSHBT1969's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    You make it sound like ST is only about the games. 

    There's a heck of alot of practice that goes on during these two months that help them make the decisions.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ZILLAGOD. Show ZILLAGOD's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Personally, when faced with tough decisions, I drag out the ouija board and tarot cards.

    But, what the hell, football games start with a coin toss, you would think that by now something more high tech would decide who gets to kick and who gets to receive.

    Listen. all kidding aside (bet you don't believe I am capable of serious thoughts !), these coaches have scouting reports and all kinds of stats and video on every player in the organization from the time they drafted them and before. The small sample size of spring training is only used to reinforce what they already know, and to make sure that a guy has been training in the off season, not being a coach potato, like many of us. A player likely can't win a roster spot based on spring training alone, but , I'll bet a veterean could lose a roster spot based on spring training performance and attitude.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    It all depends on the players involved.
    If you have a fight for 3rd let's say between Youk and Middlebrooks ST would probably mean nothing.
    However a ST fight for SS between Inglesias and Aviles would go a  long way to determine who starts.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    [QUOTE]It all depends on the players involved. If you have a fight for 3rd let's say between Youk and Middlebrooks ST would probably mean nothing. However a ST fight for SS between Inglesias and Aviles would go a  long way to determine who starts.
    Posted by JimfromFlorida[/QUOTE]

    I disagree Jim.  ST will supply the FO with a bit of information to inform the decision, but almost none of that will come from 30 - 60  something AB.  What can Iglesias do during games that will propel him to starter?  Of course, his fielding will impress but, he can't prove he can hit in such a small sample.

    Spring Training      AB     OPS

    2010 + 2011  Iglesias 37   .780
    2009             Punto    34   .895
    2010             Punto    43   .629
    2010             Aviles    51   1.243   
    2011             Aviles    59   .988


    Red Sox shortstop: Mike Aviles vs. Jose Iglesias
    Aviles hit .317/.340/.436 in 107 plate appearances with a 0.6 WARP last season after the Red Sox acquired him from the Royals at the trade deadline. That performance and the desire to clear payroll prompted the Red Sox to trade Marco Scutaro to the Rockies this winter. Iglesias has the defensive chops but just six plate appearances in the major leagues.

    Scout's take: "Aviles will hit, but he's not going to catch the ball consistently, and for me, he's not a shortstop on a championship club. Iglesias is a potential Gold Glover, and I know Bobby Valentine is going to love him because he'll remind him of Rey Ordonez. I still think you need defense up the middle to win, and that's why I like Iglesias better than Aviles. I can guarantee you now that if the Red Sox are in contention on August 1, neither one will be the starting shortstop."http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16094

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Tom, why shouldnt the players battle it out for contested spots on the field??? i thought we were trying something different this year as opposed to past years when players felt entitled and worked very little during ST....

    I have no idea who should play ss...but whomever plays the best in ST, should start...there is plenty of time to see how things go after that...
     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Lowrie was thought, by some, to be an elite SS based upon small sample size. Spring training is but one factor in making roster spot decisions.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Tom, is that a picture of Obama back when he was a member of the Young Communist Party High School Chapter?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    The only major psoition perhaps depending on ST is the last pitching slot. I think Bobby already knows what Iggy can bring to th table and what Aviles brings as well. I seriously doubt that a .350 ST by Iggy will have made a difference anyways. 

    If CC was (or is) healthy in ST, then maybe DMac's job may depend on a good spring or not.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Tom, why shouldnt the players battle it out for contested spots on the field??? i thought we were trying something different this year as opposed to past years when players felt entitled and worked very little during ST.... I have no idea who should play ss...but whomever plays the best in ST, should start...there is plenty of time to see how things go after that...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    Geo there are a few problems with this statement.  As shown above, year to year ST numbers tell us very little.  Was Josh Reddick ready to start in 2009 (1.010) and 2010 (1.091) but not 2011 (.539)?  Performance over 30 to 60 AB TELLS US NOTHING.

    reddick     ST     Regular Season
    09         1.010     .549
    10         1.091     .529
    11           .539      .784

    All this proves is what we already know.  Stiffler can play like Yaz for a few weeks followed by a Vlad Guerrero impression without the contact.

    Other small sample wonders:
    Nick Green
    Daniel Nava

    there is plenty of time to see how things go after that...

    Service time makes it a poor decision to play Iglesias in April rather than wait a few months until his clock is delayed another year. 

    Take possibly the most over-rated player in the AL East, Teixeira.

                ST        Reg Season April

    2009    1.285       .738
    2010    1.019       .559
    2011    0.978       .907

    So 2 of the last 3 seasons he hits in March but not April.  Those who say go with the hot hand should realize it doesn't always work that way.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    In Response to Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid:
    [QUOTE]I thought the old saying was '' you don't judge kids in ST or sept '' but it's common to have players compete against each other in ST for a job but I don't think  the actual numbers are as important   as what the mgr sees take that you stat geeks ;-)
    Posted by pinstripezac[/QUOTE]

    As a rule every team when they're discussing promoting a young player from the minors to the big leagues. Must first assertain if they think the kid is ready for the next step and if there's any benefit to his toiling for another year in the minors. If they arrive at the conclusion that they posses the intangables to compete at the next level and have the requisit skills to do so and there's little or no benefit to them spending another season developing. As such young players can't win a jobs in the spring nor lose one. Merely during the two months of spring training rookies can show the MLB coaches and players that they're ready for the challenge or not, based on how they handle themselves while in camp, not just in the games but during drills and workouts.  

    Thus spring training only serves to re-affirm those beliefs and in the case of Iglesias. All he has to do this spring is to show that he's the best SS in camp and if he does then he'll be given the chance to play and once he's in the lineup he then has to prove that he can be productive and consistant over the duration of the season. It's not like they don't know what they have in the kid. the question that Valentine has to answer is are we a better team with him at SS or Avilies.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    I think ST is more for tie-breaking.

    And a lot of times, it's a threat to the player to come in in the best possible shape.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliamsjr. Show hankwilliamsjr's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    It's an idle threat. The MLBPA does not allow any owner to require players under MLB contracts to come into camp in shape.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from slomag. Show slomag's posts

    Re: Basing positional player roster decisions on ST performance is stupid

    Everybody (the FO included) is trying to make Iglesias seem ready, but he's not.  I don't care if he hits .400 during spring training (he hit .320 last season), if you bring him up now, he's going to be horribly over-matched, and even defensively, he may not be able to just shrug that off when he takes the field.  

    From the team make-up position, it would be perfect if Iglesias could start, because that means you have Aviles available in the perfect role for the Sox - a RH bat who could fill in at nearly any position.  With Ross in the OF, you would probably see DMac released, and we would have a very good, balanced offense (with the exception of the starting ss).  Maybe next year - for now, Aviles should get the start.  He was actually an above-average SS the last time he played the position consistently.  That was 4 years ago, but I would take average or even slightly below before throwing Iglesias into the fire.


     

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