Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20121222-no-compensation-for-sox-after-ross-walks.ece

    1. Ross takes the offer.  (Ells in CF, Ross in RF) Which makes more sense, Victorino for three years or one year of Ross for the same price for 2013? 

    or

    2. If Ross turned down the offer, the Sox would have received a back half of 1st round compensation pick plus the extra $1M or so MLB-permitted signing bonus pool that comes with it.  Trade Ells sign Victorino.  ( SV in CF,  Kalish in RF, plus pick and $1M)

    or

    3. Ross takes the offer, SV is signed to play CF, and Ells is traded. (SV in CF, CR in RF)

    or

    4.  Ross takes offer,  (CR in LF, JE in CF,  SV in RF).

    My guess is Ross would have walked and a win - win was available, but Ben missed it.

    At the moment:  SV in RF, JE in CF, and no pick.

     

     

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    I was saying this and really thought they would extend an offer. I figured he would get a 2 or 3 year deal worth more than 13.3M in value. I was surprised when they didnt.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    I personally think that Vic makes more sense over 3 than Ross over 1, because after this year you can let Ells walk and still have a switch hitting GG CF w/ 15 HR pop in 2014.

    Vic is Ells insurance.  Also, if Vic returns to career averages (verry possible), he has trade value.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    I dont think they wanted Ross and Gomes.  Therefore I dont think that Vic is the correct comparison.  If Ross accepted the 13M/yr (which he would have, considering his Fenway success), I think we would have still signed Vic.  We wouldnt have signed Gomes.

    I think they preferred 2@ 5 for Gomes than 1 @ 13 for Ross.  Considering the similarities, its hard to argue their position.  I dont think Gomes and Ross makes sense because you are hurting against righties (which is 2/3 of the time) and I dont want to see either in RF.  Ever.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I personally think that Vic makes more sense over 3 than Ross over 1, because after this year you can let Ells walk and still have a switch hitting GG CF w/ 15 HR pop in 2014.

    Vic is Ells insurance.  Also, if Vic returns to career averages (verry possible), he has trade value.

    [/QUOTE]

    Fair point.  Bradley JR  DOB  4-19-90  So in 2014 he will be 24 yo.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    No, had we made Ross a qualifying offer, we'd be paying him $13.3M for 2013.

    A little much for a 22-HR hitting LF who has a weak glove and can't hit righties, don't you think?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Drewski5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I personally think that Vic makes more sense over 3 than Ross over 1, because after this year you can let Ells walk and still have a switch hitting GG CF w/ 15 HR pop in 2014.

    Vic is Ells insurance.  Also, if Vic returns to career averages (verry possible), he has trade value.

    [/QUOTE]

    Fair point.  Bradley JR  DOB  4-19-90  So in 2014 he will be 24 yo.

    [/QUOTE]

    If Bradley Jr emerges, we can either shift Vic to RF or trade him.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    Arizona might not have signed Cody Ross if the signing had cost the Diamondbacks their No. 15 pick in the June 2013 draft.

    The compensation pick would be in the sandwich round.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    No, had we made Ross a qualifying offer, we'd be paying him $13.3M for 2013.

    A little much for a 22-HR hitting LF who has a weak glove and can't hit righties, don't you think?

    [/QUOTE]

    2011 Josh Willingham 2/17/79  136 games .810 OPS   -10.2 UZR/150  2.0 WAR

    2012 Cody Ross 12/23/80        130 games   .807 OPS    3.9 UZR/150   2.4 WAR

    2011 Michael Cuddyer 3/27/79  139 games  .805 OPS    0.1 UZR/150   3.0  WAR     

     

    Willingham 3 yr $21M

    Ross 3 yr $26M

    Cuddyer 3 yr $31.5

    Even with comp pick ball and chain, my guess is he would've walked.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Soxdog67. Show Soxdog67's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    How about this...maybe the Red Sox didn't think Cody Ross was worth the value of a qualifying offer thus further explaining why he wasn't offered a 3 year deal from them either.

    It is fairly obvious this offseason that if the Sox are truly interested in a player they are willing to pay market or over market value to get them.

    You guys can speculate these scenarios all you like, but it doesn't change the fact of how the 'Red Sox' organization valued Cody Ross.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Arizona might not have signed Cody Ross if the signing had cost the Diamondbacks their No. 15 pick in the June 2013 draft.

    The compensation pick would in the sandwich round.

    [/QUOTE]

    Spot on.  The #15 pick is probably worth a good $5M in value.

    Another way of looking at it is, what is the highest pick surrendered to far?  Teams take into consideration the total cost of the signing.  If AZ had to surrender the #15, they'd have factored that into their offer.

    Another unbiased way to look at it is to see who was offered.  Ross was rated #22, and only 9 players got qualifying offers.  Pagan, Victorino, and Hunter are better OFs and did not receive offers.  Martin and Napoli are better players as well, with no offers.

     
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  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Red Sox got it right on this one issue, Ross v. Gomes. They were correnct in not making a qualifying offer, as it would have dropped his market value enough to where he would likely have accepted the one year higher base and done another season of padding his numbers at home and embarrassing himself on the road.

    [/QUOTE]

    +1

    Ross and Gomes are just nice fill-in ballplayers.  I'd argue that Gomes is about $1M pa overpaid.  Ross is ridiculous.  His OPS+ over the past 3 years is 105.  Given that he is basically a below-average LF, his average of 17 HRs and a .260 average over three years, is just about replacement value.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    The Sox made the right move on this one. Ross and Gomes are very similar players as well as good clubhouse guys. I liked Cody, but not at the price AZ paid. Good for him though.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Drewski5. Show Drewski5's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Red Sox got it right on this one issue, Ross v. Gomes. They were correnct in not making a qualifying offer, as it would have dropped his market value enough to where he would likely have accepted the one year higher base and done another season of padding his numbers at home and embarrassing himself on the road.

    [/QUOTE]

    Great point.  If I'm Ross , I take the 1 yr @13.  Get a second season of "Fenway Park stats" and hit free agency again, at 33, w/ 2 20+ Hr seasons in a row.  Thats a recipe for an overpay.  It only takes 1 incompetent GM.  Make a nice 13M in the process too.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Arizona might not have signed Cody Ross if the signing had cost the Diamondbacks their No. 15 pick in the June 2013 draft.

    The compensation pick would in the sandwich round.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree about Arizona but it is irrelevant to the Sox.  Ross would've made his decision knowing the comp pick problem.   His contract is right in the middle of the Willingham and Cuddyer deals, as their FA year WARs indicated.   Given the up and down nature of Ross's career, I doubt he would have turned down the chance of a 3 year deal in the $21M to $26M range.

    After all his poor 2011 ( 1.0 WAR) cost him dearly.  If he took the Sox offer and slumped (maybe if he didn't) he could've been platooned with Kalish and seen his 2013 off-season value plumet.  A leftie smasher might only get 200 to 250 ABs.

    The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/cody-ross-heads-west/

    Arizona is more homer friendly for RHH tradionally, and Fenway is more singles and doubles (higher BABIP) friendly.

    "Ross might therefore see a slight decline in overall offensive performance." Mike Podhorzer

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Arizona might not have signed Cody Ross if the signing had cost the Diamondbacks their No. 15 pick in the June 2013 draft.

    The compensation pick would in the sandwich round.

    [/QUOTE]

    I agree about Arizona but it is irrelevant to the Sox.  Ross would've made his decision knowing the comp pick problem.   His contract is right in the middle of the Willingham and Cuddyer deals, as their FA year WARs indicated.   Given the up and down nature of Ross's career, I doubt he would have turned down the chance of a 3 year deal in the $21M to $26M range.

    After all his poor 2011 ( 1.0 WAR) cost him dearly.  If he took the Sox offer and slumped (maybe if he didn't) he could've been platooned with Kalish and seen his 2013 off-season value plumet.  A leftie smasher might only get 200 to 250 ABs.

    The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:

    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/cody-ross-heads-west/

    Arizona is more homer friendly for RHH tradionally, and Fenway is more singles and doubles (higher BABIP) friendly.

    "Ross might therefore see a slight decline in overall offensive performance." Mike Podhorzer

     

    [/QUOTE]

    It wouldn't make sense to gamble on a $21M/3 contract.  The marginal gain is $7.7M/2, more than a one-year deal for $13.3M.  The downside is that he gets hurt and loses $7.7M.  The upside is that he is healthy and gets the same offer next year.

    I think it is telling that only 9 players got qualifying offers.  Napoli is clearly a better ballplayer.  Hunter and martin are better players.  Pagan is better.  There is no way to make a case for those guys not getting offers, and the $3M Ross getting one.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

     

    It wouldn't make sense to gamble on a $21M/3 contract.  The marginal gain is $7.7M/2, more than a one-year deal for $13.3M.  The downside is that he gets hurt and loses $7.7M.  The upside is that he is healthy and gets the same offer next year.

    We will have to agree to disagree on that point Joe.   The downside is not just related to injury.  Playing time, performance like 2011 (105 RC+) or even worse 2010 (96 wRC+), and or age are all factors.  IMO it would be a close call.

    I think it is telling that only 9 players got qualifying offers.  Napoli is clearly a better ballplayer.  Hunter and martin are better players.  Pagan is better.  There is no way to make a case for those guys not getting offers, and the $3M Ross getting one.

    Texas undoubtedly should have made Napoli an offer, unless his hip was on their mind.  If the hip was a major issue to Texas also, then no Napoli is not currently a better ballplayer than Ross.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    If you have Ross, Victorino, Ellsbury, Gomes where will Kalish fit in not to mention a guy like Linares and others

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to tom-uk's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    It wouldn't make sense to gamble on a $21M/3 contract.  The marginal gain is $7.7M/2, more than a one-year deal for $13.3M.  The downside is that he gets hurt and loses $7.7M.  The upside is that he is healthy and gets the same offer next year.

    We will have to are to disagree on that point Joe.   The downside is not just related to injury.  Playing time, performance like 2011 (105 RC+) or even worse 2010 (96 wRC+), and or age are all factors.  IMO it would be a close call.

    I think it is telling that only 9 players got qualifying offers.  Napoli is clearly a better ballplayer.  Hunter and martin are better players.  Pagan is better.  There is no way to make a case for those guys not getting offers, and the $3M Ross getting one.

    Texas undoubtdly should have made Napoli an offer, unless his hip was on their mind.  If the hip was a major issue to Texas also then no Napoli is not currently a better ballplayer than Ross.

    [/QUOTE]


    [/QUOTE]

    Napoli was clearly a mistake.  It would be expected that he would decline, because it would be expected that he'd get an offer $30M/3+.  He was already making $9.4M.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to JimfromFlorida's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If you have Ross, Victorino, Ellsbury, Gomes where will Kalish fit in not to mention a guy like Linares and others

    [/QUOTE]

    AAA or 4th/5th OF, Jim.  Where do you think Kalish, Linares and the others should fit in today vis a vis the 2013 season?  Me?  I'd say AAA or 4th/5th OF.

     
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  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Fenway factor is largely a myth in boosting a RHH:

    A myth can't be "largely a myth". It's either a myth, or it's not.

    2012  C. Ross splits  Home  BA  .298  OBP  .356  SLG  .565  OPS .921

    2012                          Away BA  .232   OBP  .294  SLG ..390  OPS .684

    Doesn't look like much of a myth to me. SLG .565 Home and an embarrassing .390 Away

     

     

    [/QUOTE]


    You have this one right softy. Ross and Gomes are essentially the same ballplayer. Why on earth would you give C Ross 8.5 X 3 when you can get Gomes for 5 X 2?

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Ben should have made Ross a qualifying offer.

    In response to Softlaw1's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have Dumpster and S. Drew and Shane right, too. I have them all right.

    [/QUOTE]


    You're wrong a lot more often than you're right. Dempster will likely pitch 200 innings of a little better than .500 baseball. Drew will give the Sox a better SS than Iglesias would this year. Victorino will give the Sox about the same offensive production as a healthy Ellsbury, with the added plus that he can actually, you know, throw the baseball.

     

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