Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

  1. This post has been removed.

     
  2. This post has been removed.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    talking to yourself is getting old pike.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    I have no problem with people trashing Pike if it floats their boat but I wish they'd find a separate thread to do it in.  I found the Bill James story to be interesting.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have no problem with people trashing Pike if it floats their boat but I wish they'd find a separate thread to do it in.  I found the Bill James story to be interesting.

    [/QUOTE]

    Just focus on the post, that's all.  When Softlaw is in his 'bash all things RS', then I feel free to ridicule the content of the threads.

    At other times, he can be fairly insightful, and I respond accordingly.

    Bill James is always interesting.  The haters are not going to like this one bit, and I already know what their various reactions will be.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    As I stated on my "positive thread", the Sox offense has a legitimate chance of improving their OPS at every position taken one by one.

    It's the rotation that scares me, and I think James was being a bit generous with our starters.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As I stated on my "positive thread", the Sox offense has a legitimate chance of improving their OPS at every position taken one by one.

    It's the rotation that scares me, and I think James was being a bit generous with our starters.

    [/QUOTE]

    We have a very difficult rotation to predict.

    Two guys with ace potential, coming off of bad years.

    A very good pitcher switching leagues, and 36.

    A #2 type coming off of surgery and not at a young age.

    A sophomore with good, but uneven stats.

    With not a lot of variables going south, we could be bottom-5, and with just a handful of variables going north, we could be top-5 in SP.  Just for fun

    • Lester 2011  3.47
    • Buchholz 2011  3.48
    • Dempster 2012 + 0.33 for league  3.71
    • Lackey last healthy season 4.40
    • Doubront 2012 FIP  4.37

    It is unlikely for all five events to occur, but these aren't once in a lifetime events either.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to S5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I have no problem with people trashing Pike if it floats their boat but I wish they'd find a separate thread to do it in.  I found the Bill James story to be interesting.

    [/QUOTE]

    Just focus on the post, that's all.  When Softlaw is in his 'bash all things RS', then I feel free to ridicule the content of the threads.

    At other times, he can be fairly insightful, and I respond accordingly.

    Bill James is always interesting.  The haters are not going to like this one bit, and I already know what their various reactions will be.

    [/QUOTE]

    I know, Joe.  Thanks for the props.  I just get tired of seeing the same anti-Pike posts in thread after thread disrupting the stuff that's worth reading, and sometimes it bubbles to the top with me.  :-) 

     

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As I stated on my "positive thread", the Sox offense has a legitimate chance of improving their OPS at every position taken one by one.

    It's the rotation that scares me, and I think James was being a bit generous with our starters.

    [/QUOTE]

    We have a very difficult rotation to predict.

    Two guys with ace potential, coming off of bad years.

    A very good pitcher switching leagues, and 36.

    A #2 type coming off of surgery and not at a young age.

    A sophomore with good, but uneven stats.

    With not a lot of variables going south, we could be bottom-5, and with just a handful of variables going north, we could be top-5 in SP.  Just for fun

    • Lester 2011  3.47
    • Buchholz 2011  3.48
    • Dempster 2012 + 0.33 for league  3.71
    • Lackey last healthy season 4.40
    • Doubront 2012 FIP  4.37

    It is unlikely for all five events to occur, but these aren't once in a lifetime events either.

    [/QUOTE]

    if you look at the names of that 5...that's a pretty damn good 5...on paper...i'm not like everybody who see's doom all the time...and i think that 5 will be alright.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to raider3524's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As I stated on my "positive thread", the Sox offense has a legitimate chance of improving their OPS at every position taken one by one.

    It's the rotation that scares me, and I think James was being a bit generous with our starters.

    [/QUOTE]

    We have a very difficult rotation to predict.

    Two guys with ace potential, coming off of bad years.

    A very good pitcher switching leagues, and 36.

    A #2 type coming off of surgery and not at a young age.

    A sophomore with good, but uneven stats.

    With not a lot of variables going south, we could be bottom-5, and with just a handful of variables going north, we could be top-5 in SP.  Just for fun

    • Lester 2011  3.47
    • Buchholz 2011  3.48
    • Dempster 2012 + 0.33 for league  3.71
    • Lackey last healthy season 4.40
    • Doubront 2012 FIP  4.37

    It is unlikely for all five events to occur, but these aren't once in a lifetime events either.

    [/QUOTE]

    if you look at the names of that 5...that's a pretty damn good 5...on paper...i'm not like everybody who see's doom all the time...and i think that 5 will be alright.

    [/QUOTE]


    same here. lester, lackey and buch will al rebound nicely. hopefully doobie will build off of a pretty solid rookie season and Dempster makes the transition well. we also have some pretty decent depth in Aceves/Morales and eventually RDLR (probably won't be available until the AS break-ish).

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    I know, Joe.  Thanks for the props.  I just get tired of seeing the same anti-Pike posts in thread after thread disrupting the stuff that's worth reading, and sometimes it bubbles to the top with me.  :-)

    I have no idea, really, who Pike is.  There are posts that I just scroll through or I don't.  I don't really look too much, to see what the name is attached to the post, before I decide to comment on it.  It's either interesting or it is not.

    Half the time, when they accuse someone of being Pike, there is no similarity at all in the writing forensics.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to raider3524's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As I stated on my "positive thread", the Sox offense has a legitimate chance of improving their OPS at every position taken one by one.

    It's the rotation that scares me, and I think James was being a bit generous with our starters.

    [/QUOTE]

    We have a very difficult rotation to predict.

    Two guys with ace potential, coming off of bad years.

    A very good pitcher switching leagues, and 36.

    A #2 type coming off of surgery and not at a young age.

    A sophomore with good, but uneven stats.

    With not a lot of variables going south, we could be bottom-5, and with just a handful of variables going north, we could be top-5 in SP.  Just for fun

    • Lester 2011  3.47
    • Buchholz 2011  3.48
    • Dempster 2012 + 0.33 for league  3.71
    • Lackey last healthy season 4.40
    • Doubront 2012 FIP  4.37

    It is unlikely for all five events to occur, but these aren't once in a lifetime events either.

    [/QUOTE]

    if you look at the names of that 5...that's a pretty damn good 5...on paper...i'm not like everybody who see's doom all the time...and i think that 5 will be alright.

    [/QUOTE]


    same here. lester, lackey and buch will al rebound nicely. hopefully doobie will build off of a pretty solid rookie season and Dempster makes the transition well. we also have some pretty decent depth in Aceves/Morales and eventually RDLR (probably won't be available until the AS break-ish).

    [/QUOTE]

    and john farrell is our manager...he's good with pitchers.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from raider3524. Show raider3524's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I know, Joe.  Thanks for the props.  I just get tired of seeing the same anti-Pike posts in thread after thread disrupting the stuff that's worth reading, and sometimes it bubbles to the top with me.  :-)

    I have no idea, really, who Pike is.  There are posts that I just scroll through or I don't.  I don't really look too much, to see what the name is attached to the post, before I decide to comment on it.  It's either interesting or it is not.

    Half the time, when they accuse someone of being Pike, there is no similarity at all in the writing forensics.

    [/QUOTE]


    i'm in the same boat..who is pike?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    It's an interesting take. I'm not sure a whole lot of posters here would agree with his projections. To me, the offensive projections look pretty reasonable, but his projections for the rotation are more what would look to me like a best case scenario.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to mef429's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to raider3524's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Joebreidey's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    As I stated on my "positive thread", the Sox offense has a legitimate chance of improving their OPS at every position taken one by one.

    It's the rotation that scares me, and I think James was being a bit generous with our starters.

    [/QUOTE]

    We have a very difficult rotation to predict.

    Two guys with ace potential, coming off of bad years.

    A very good pitcher switching leagues, and 36.

    A #2 type coming off of surgery and not at a young age.

    A sophomore with good, but uneven stats.

    With not a lot of variables going south, we could be bottom-5, and with just a handful of variables going north, we could be top-5 in SP.  Just for fun

    • Lester 2011  3.47
    • Buchholz 2011  3.48
    • Dempster 2012 + 0.33 for league  3.71
    • Lackey last healthy season 4.40
    • Doubront 2012 FIP  4.37

    It is unlikely for all five events to occur, but these aren't once in a lifetime events either.

    [/QUOTE]

    if you look at the names of that 5...that's a pretty damn good 5...on paper...i'm not like everybody who see's doom all the time...and i think that 5 will be alright.

    [/QUOTE]


    same here. lester, lackey and buch will al rebound nicely. hopefully doobie will build off of a pretty solid rookie season and Dempster makes the transition well. we also have some pretty decent depth in Aceves/Morales and eventually RDLR (probably won't be available until the AS break-ish).

    [/QUOTE]

    If I were just doing an accounting exercise, I'd have promoted Morales instead of paying $12M+ for Dempster.  But at least now, we should have a little bit of depth.  I've posted this a few times, but it bears repeating.

    In 2004, we got 157 starts from our regular 5.

    In 2007, we got 140 starts from our regular 5, with great support from our 6/7/8, Lester, Gabbard, and Buchholz.

    BB can be amazingly simply sometimes.  In the regular season, you just need a solid offense, with a preponderance of quality starts.  Even good teams will lose if they dip too deeply into their 6/7/8 with having quality pitchers.

    If we get 140 starts from our rotation, and 22 from Morales, Aceves, Tazawa, and DLR, we should be fine.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    The Sox rotation certainly has the potential to be near top 5, if everything goes right, but seriously, would any of you really rather have our rotation over these?

    Rays: Price, Hellickson, Moore, Niemann, Cobb

    Yanks: Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Nova/Phelps

    Jays: Dickey, Johnson, Buehrle, Romero, Morrow/Happ

    (That's just in our own division)

    Now, some other selected AL teams:

    Tigers: Verlander, Fister, A Sanchez, Scherzer, Porcello/Smyly

    A's: Anderson, Milone, Parker, Griffin, Straily/Colon

    Angels: Weaver, Wilson, Vargas, Hanson, Blanton

    CWS: Sale, Peavy, Floyd, Quintana, Santiago

    Royals: Shields, E Santana, Guthrie, W Davis, B Chen

    Rangers: Harrison, Darvish, Holland, Ogando, Lewis/Perez

    Yes, one could argue we may be better than 1 or 2 on this list, but it is clear to me that, on paper, we might be lucky to be ranked 8th or 9th best in the AL alone. (Maybe 7th)

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    I hadn't heard James had moved to Colorado or Washington!

    So let me get this straight the O is pretty darn good and the ERAs are great, but all the starters are ~.500.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from tom-uk. Show tom-uk's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    2012 ERA rank qualified AL starters with BJ '13 projections interspersed:


    Price

    Verlander

    Weaver 

    Sale

    Hernandez

    Hellickson

    Harrison

    Kurado

    Peavy 

    Sabathia

    Shields 

    Diamond

    BUCHHOLZ 3.64

    DOUB 3.70

    LESTER 3.71

    DEMPSTER 3.74

    Scherzer

    Millone

    Moore

    Wilson

    Vargas

    Darvish

    WY Chen  

    LACKEY 4.05

    Hughes

    Floyd

     

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    if our hitters hit like that and pitchers get those ERA's...then those wins will be way off.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonTrollSpanker. Show BostonTrollSpanker's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    "I have no problem with people trashing Pike if it floats their boat but I wish they'd find a separate thread to do it in."

    But he trashes people in their own threads all the time. Would you say the same to him or do you apply the usual weak internet argument double standard? 

    Do you know that it's possible to cover two topics in one post to a thread? I know it's a mind-blowing concept. 

    As for James, it's truly amazing that someone deep on the Sox management payroll promised a more prominent roll is optimistic about the Sox. 

    His view of our starting pitching is optimistic to say the least. 

    James also assumes Napoli is healthy and his contract issues behind him, a pretty big assumption. I think he's optimistic on Ortiz' production also. If Ellsbury has a bounce back year as James projects it will be bittersweet, I still hope they find a way to trade him for pitching talent which we sorely need. 

    That said, I think James is more on target with the hitting than the pitching. Heck, I hope he's right about all of it but   I worry that his optimism about our starting rotation will convince Sox management to stand pat. 

    If James turns out to be right and I'm wrong, I'll be glad to be wrong.

     
  21. This post has been removed.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    Maybe our great pen will win the no decisions.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Sox rotation certainly has the potential to be near top 5, if everything goes right, but seriously, would any of you really rather have our rotation over these?

    Rays: Price, Hellickson, Moore, Niemann, Cobb

    Yanks: Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Nova/Phelps

    Jays: Dickey, Johnson, Buehrle, Romero, Morrow/Happ

    (That's just in our own division)

    Now, some other selected AL teams:

    Tigers: Verlander, Fister, A Sanchez, Scherzer, Porcello/Smyly

    A's: Anderson, Milone, Parker, Griffin, Straily/Colon

    Angels: Weaver, Wilson, Vargas, Hanson, Blanton

    CWS: Sale, Peavy, Floyd, Quintana, Santiago

    Royals: Shields, E Santana, Guthrie, W Davis, B Chen

    Rangers: Harrison, Darvish, Holland, Ogando, Lewis/Perez

    Yes, one could argue we may be better than 1 or 2 on this list, but it is clear to me that, on paper, we might be lucky to be ranked 8th or 9th best in the AL alone. (Maybe 7th)

    [/QUOTE]


    Based on this list (thank you moonslav59), I like Oakland and Toronto. 

    Oakland's rookie pitching staff handled pressure very well despite losing McCarthy and Anderson to injuries and being in a tight race with the Angels and Rangers. 

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    In response to Ice-Cream's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The Sox rotation certainly has the potential to be near top 5, if everything goes right, but seriously, would any of you really rather have our rotation over these?

    Rays: Price, Hellickson, Moore, Niemann, Cobb

    Yanks: Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Nova/Phelps

    Jays: Dickey, Johnson, Buehrle, Romero, Morrow/Happ

    (That's just in our own division)

    Now, some other selected AL teams:

    Tigers: Verlander, Fister, A Sanchez, Scherzer, Porcello/Smyly

    A's: Anderson, Milone, Parker, Griffin, Straily/Colon

    Angels: Weaver, Wilson, Vargas, Hanson, Blanton

    CWS: Sale, Peavy, Floyd, Quintana, Santiago

    Royals: Shields, E Santana, Guthrie, W Davis, B Chen

    Rangers: Harrison, Darvish, Holland, Ogando, Lewis/Perez

    Yes, one could argue we may be better than 1 or 2 on this list, but it is clear to me that, on paper, we might be lucky to be ranked 8th or 9th best in the AL alone. (Maybe 7th)

    [/QUOTE]


    Based on this list (thank you moonslav59), I like Oakland and Toronto. 

    Oakland's rookie pitching staff handled pressure very well despite losing McCarthy and Anderson to injuries and being in a tight race with the Angels and Rangers. 

    [/QUOTE]

    There are other AL teams with starters about as good as ours that I didn't list.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from proftom. Show proftom's posts

    Re: Bill James Projects the 2013 Red Sox

    Couple of years again I got a Bill James book for Christmas. yep, what to get an aging boomer for Christmas.  Gotta admit it was fun to use during the games that year. It was better than average at predicting trends and tendencies. I find his work doesn't take into account career years too well. 

    Anyway, we are building a great bullpen. 

     

Share