Re: Billy Butler is available
posted at 12/29/2012 1:48 AM EST
In response to Joebreidey's comment:
In response to BMav's comment:
In response to Drewski5's comment:
A realistic package:
Lester or Buchh, Webster, Brentz
Doubront, Middlebrooks, Brentz gets it done. Not sure though.
He's 26, is a proven .300 hitter and hit 29 last year. You just cant find that in the MLB.
I would not trade Lester or Middlebrooks straight up for him. Let alone add anything else. He is a DH. There is a reason no DH has ever made 15 million a season. They have limited value. You could play him at 1st base, but his defense is awful and his base running too. A younger version of Mike Napoli, only with more stick and less power. Only has 3 years of control and will average over 9 million a year. Pay Napoli 4 million more and you don't have to give up anything.
I would happily take him and give something up of quality, but BB is a very limited player and I think you over rate his value. Maybe Doubront and Brentz. Or Buchholtz alone.
I'm not even a WMB fan, but he had a 2.1 WAR in 286 PAs, while it Butler had a 3.2 in 679 PAs. On a WAR/PA basis, WMB was much better last year.
Fast forward to this year, and James projects an .858 OPS for Butler and an .806 for WMB. The difference of 52 points is easily made up by WMB playing 3B.
I happen to think that .858 is on the low side. When Butler came up, he was touted as a future batting crown champion. He has batted .315+ in 2 of the last 3 years, and last year at 26, he finally showed the high slg% he had throughout the minors. His minor league slg %, age (26), make it appears like the HR power we saw last year is an indication of what we can expect through his prime years (25-30 HR). Combined w/ .315 BA (.375 OBP), I think .858 is a bit low.
ALso, this isnt the MLB of 3 yrs ago. Back then, the difference of .05 OPS points may have been covered by Middlebrooks ability to play avg-above avg defense; however, .858 1B/DH arent easy to find anymore. Its not like the free agency is loaded with .830 OPS 1B/DH that can be had on teh cheap. The downgrade that people give to great hitters who dont have a position is overstated. There are very few hitters who have .850 OPS floors, and if you can add one, you take the hit to 1B defense.
I would be hesitant to give up Lester or Buchh; however, I am sure they would push this. I would be willing to include Middlebrooks, especially considering that Boegarts is a third baseman. Using Middlebrooks to bring in Butler is a better solution than converting MB to 1B (as some have suggested). Middlebrooks' swing isnt made to hit .315 over a full season nad Billy Butler's is. Middlebrooks + Doubront probably no.
Middlebrooks, Morales, Brentz