Re: Cherington lying in the weeds waiting to spring a trade for Matt Kemp?
posted at 12/9/2013 9:53 AM EST
In response to Hingham Hammer's comment:
In response to southpaw777's comment:
In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
OK>>>> might be back to hating the idea of trading for Kemp again
I think you guys are really underestimating the effects of Kemp's lengthy injury history here. This isn't like Ellsbury where he just had a broken bone that needed to heal, and now it's as good as new. This isn't even like Tommy John surgery which is traumatic but has a long history of success and a well-established rehab routine.
This is multiple shoulder injuries (including a torn labrum and damage to the A/C joint), which is widely regarded as one of the most career-threatening injuries a baseball player can suffer. These two links mainly discuss it in the context of pitchers, but such an injury is equally devastating for hitters. Kemp's left shoulder is his lead shoulder, and recovering from that injury will cause significant disruption to his hitting mechanics. Adrian Gonzalez and Jacoby Ellsbury had similar, but less serious repairs on their shoulders, and both have struggled to hit with the same power since coming back. Gonzalez's home run rate is way down even 2+ years after his surgery (his recent HR/FB is literally half of what it was during his peak years), and while it's too early to tell with Ellsbury, he struggled to drive the ball in the first half of the year as well. (By the way, this is the same injury Kalish had, which is why I think why wishcasting him as the same prospect he was is a fool's errand.)
That's not even to mention the ankle injury which required a microfracture procedure to his ankle, which only has a 75-85% success rate (that success rate goes down with age, by the way). Even if it "succeeds", the microfracture procedure adds a thin layer of fibrocartilage to protect the talus dome, but that new cartilage often starts to break down again within 2-3 years because it isn't as strong as the kind you're born with. If that happens and he suffers a talus dome fracture, his career is over.
Oh yeah, and have I mentioned the chronic soft-tissue injuries? He's pulled his hamstring multiple times (September 2013, May 2012, Spring Training 2012), and that's the kind of injury that's going to pop up again and again.
Yes, Kemp was a fabulously talented player back in 2011, before this whole ordeal started. But he's suffered three distinct injuries since then that are the sort that never go away. This isn't a question of "trade for him if he's healthy", because with the injuries he's suffered, there's no such thing as "fully healthy" for him anymore. He'll never be that guy again, because a surgically-repaired shoulder and a post-microfracture ankle and a chronically sore hamstring don't just magically go away with treatment. Sure, you can take the chance that he can manage those injuries well enough to stay on the field, but even then, the best-case scenario is that he's 80% of the guy he was but with the threat of a career-ending ankle injury forever hanging over his head. I really can't fathom committing six years and $15m+ to a player with a risk profile like that.
Read more: http://forum.soxprospects.com/thread/1369/2013-offseason-red-sox-thread?page=62#ixzz2mxEwD88L
No way. People remember Kemps bat a few years ago. Hes NOT that guy anymore and never will be. Move on people.
Exactly. Now Stanton is a guy worth talking about.
Stanton has had his share of soft tissue injuries as well. Obviously not near the level of Kemp, but hes had 1 season with over 123 games played in his 4 years. Id wait to bid on him in 3 years when hes a FA. Hes not expesnsive for the Fish this year, so the haul of prospects would be enormous. Next year he should be officially made available by the team, unless someone wants to foolishly empty their farm before then. The Sox wont do that this year.