Re: Cherrington's thought on the SP's MAY be.....
posted at 12/5/2012 8:26 PM EST
...this. He may be banking on the idea that Dubrount will continue to develop,
He's got a lot of further developing to go to improve on his God-awful WHIP.
...and that Lester/Buchholz will return to form assuming they are healthy, and we've not heard that they aren't.
They were healthy last year for the most part. What are the odds they both stay healthy and have big years? Both? maybe 60-40? 50-50?
Neither of those are far fetched ideas, especially when we consider the stability Farrell would bring in compared to the circus of 2012.
Neither are far fetched, but the chances all 3 have better years is pretty darn close to "far-fetched".
If that happens, you already have a solid foundation there. Next, you hope that a healthy Lackey could possibly return to a 2009 type form.
All 4? Now, we are beyond far-fetched.
This also, while certainly not guaranteed, is not beyond possibility--it's been done before many times. If you add to that the Tazawa's and Morales' of the system for backup, and make a trade using Ellsbury & co. to get a 1 or 1a SP to top your rotation, the pitching is in respectable shape.
Elssbury can only be traded to a contender, and no contender is giving a quality SP to get a questionable CF'er for 1 year. We could involve a 3rd team and add some other players and/or prospects to get a better SP, but until we do, this rotation is a joke or a pipedream.
The down side is that (as we've seen all to often recently) the worst could happen. That is, Dubrount does not progress, and possibly gets hurt or regresses, Lester and Buchholz never return to form, and Lackey, well, is Lackey again. If that happens, the Sox will be left with a 1 or 1a horse, and 4 nags. Welcome back to last place. But on balance, it's not a bad risk IF that's the path Cherrington chooses. Also, IF Lackey would return to form enough to hold his own even as a #3 caliber (certainly a possibility), you'd have him for the league minimun in 2014, freeing up a lot of cash to augment the lineup or staff. It's a risk, but on the whole not a terrible one. We'll see what the Sox have on the burner......
I am almsot certain we will sign someone, but I hope it is not the J Gomes or S Victorino of the pitching choices.