Re: CIRIACO < DREW?
posted at 12/27/2012 12:24 PM EST
In response to Strangeglove's comment:
If Ciriaco had been given the chance to start in 2013, is it fair to assume he would have given us average to above ave. defense which at least is equals to Drews?
Here's my guess on say 140 games of either as a regular...
Ciriaco: 260ave. 310 OBP 10hr 35 SB
Drew: 250ave. 330 OBP 12hr. 8 SB
Fair guess? If so, then wouldn't Ciriaco seem to be the better choice to start? - Of course, its not going to happen now.
I like Beantowne's post. I do question his assertion, however, that being (all of) 28, there is a reason that he has struggled to make a big league team. While true, think of all the "late bloomers" who flew under the radar. Top of my head - Wade Boggs, Tim Wakefield, etc.. (prob.better examples,but you get the point)...Maybe the kid has finally found himself??
As far as I can see, the best predictor of major league success is minor league K/W, adjusted for age/level. After his first minor league year, Boggs never had an OBP < .395. PC is at .299 in the minors.
There are late bloomers, but there aren't a lot of them. And most have far better K/W.
The biggest issue for me is that he was a donut his last 34 games. .518 OPS, 22/5 K/W, 12 runs and 3 RBIs. I'm seeing very little to suggest he can hit at all.