Darn...Tigers signing Davis

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
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    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    In response to Iceman4's comment:
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    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
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    In response to Iceman4's comment:
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    same here..........what has JBJ shown us that gives us total confidence in him anchoring CF and replacing Ellsbury?.........if he fails , what is the backup plan?

    He had a shot last year and faltered.

    [/QUOTE]

    People need to stop using last year as a basis for having no confidence in JBJ.  He was rushed to the majors last year, even if you go by normal minor league promotions triple A was an aggressive assignment.  In 2012 he didn't even have a half a season worth of at-bats above single A ball....he effectively jumped from one year to the next starting in the Majors from SINGLE A.  There is every reason to assume he is only going to get better, because he is.

    I would 100% agree that we need depth in the outfield and someone to play and help JBJ....but we need to have some confidence and patience in him as well.  His defense is ready, and he plays a defensive premium position.

    It's not as if he's spent several years in the minors and had multiple long looks at the MLB level and faltered.

    I think JBJ is going to be a pleasant surprise next year.

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    not against him CT..........but like you said depth is the concern........hearing alot of JBJ will be the CF and it will be great......not sold on that just yet. Give him the slot but have something decent to back him up.

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    Agreed....Just two points though.

    Insurance shouldn't be going out and getting a starter, because you will pay for that in money and prospects.  You buy and trade for holes you have no depth, you get back up and insurance for an area you are plugging a top rookie into.

    Any guy we could get that can help JBJ is not going to be the ideal player that many in here would want.....In other words if a guy isn't already a starter.....he's not going to put up starter numbers.

    If we wanted a starter we should have resigned Jacoby Ellsbury if there was no faith in JBJ, otherwise a RHH who can hit lefties and add speed like Raja Davis would have been useful, but he's gone. 

    There is no doubt that giving the keys over to JBJ is a risk, but to me it's the kind of risks an organization should take.  I'd feel much better with that kind of risk than trading for a Matt Kemp type, who is probably a corner outfielder at this point and may be in a serious decline (and will be grossly overpaid).  To me those are the kind of risks you pay dearly for, and for years.  If JBJ doesn't pan out this year, then it's a sting for one year and we can re-evaluate the position next year. 

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    I'll play along with this and others above.  We do not need a compliment, we need a starter.  JBJ, carp, nava, gomes...none of these guys are starters.  Nava is closest.  We have the compliment guys.  What we do not have is a starter.  Until JBJ has a solid full year+ in AAA or at least a half year of solid play as a fill in or compliment(300 ab's or so) at the MLB level then I have zero confidence of him being the startyer here.  He is simply not ready YET.  I have every confidence that he will be.  A choo or Kemp has proven they are starters.  Yes they are expensive and/or risky, but they have proven that their talent translates.  JBJ has no such track record.  Additionally, Boggie and WMB are also far from guarentees.  I am fine for 1 or maybe even 2 of these guys being counted on as starters, but 3 is simply poor planning.  They must not be done shopping yet or we are in for a long season.

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    The thing is, if you really believe Bradley is a good bet to succeed, how can you justify taking on long-term contracts of Kemp or Choo?  

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    Exactly, and at that point we would be either over the salary cap, or going with much weaker options at 1B/C 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from Iceman4. Show Iceman4's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis


    do we think the same way with Middy????

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to Iceman4's comment:
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    do we think the same way with Middy????

    [/QUOTE]


    There are 3 OF spots.  We have 2 more years with Victorino.  JBJ is likely the future.  Nava/carp/Gomes are simply fillins on short and/or inexpensive deals.  If we were to sign/trade for a starter, then the following year you end up with Choo/Kemp, Victorino,and JBJ in the OF.  The Gomes/Carp/Nava fill ins simply fade away.  No issue here.  The issue is if JBJ falters and you are counting on Nava, Victorino, Gomes/Carp as your OF.  Now we have problems.  Similarily, Are we ready to not have a backup for Bogie and WMB?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    Yes, because we should expect him to move up the learning curve as well....and we also have a prospect who is more highly regarded than he ever was in Pawtucket next year who could even be ready by mid-year. 

    why pay millions for a starter when you have two potential starter in AAA/MLB?

    If Middy fails, Cecchini might be right there to take his place.  Keep in mind that Middlebrooks had 32 HR in his first 162 games, and there were only 7 players that put up 32 or more last season.  Power has seriously diminished in MLB.  30 HR's is the new 40.

    He is young and still moving up the learning curve, I'd expect his OBP/AVG to improve next year but not by much.  I think it is very reasonable to assume Middy can put up a .250/.310/.480 slash line with good defense.  He very well may even put up better numbers than that.

    Keep in mind that during his 2012 campaign he put up a line of .288/.325/.509 then he hurt his wrist.  Wrist injuries are nortorious for slowing down a players bat speed, and often times takes a player a full year to recover. When Papi hurt his wrist he went a full year with a OPS of .794 and everyone talked of his demise.  It took him over a year to recover and hasn't put up an OPS south of .899 since.

    One could even make the argument that with a full season under his belt, and a full season removed from injury....that Will Middlebrooks could end up putting up very good numbers (at the very least compared to what people project out of him). 

    So yes.....I take that same chance with Middy. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    Here's a question.

    What do you guys expect from a backup?

    a back up is a back up for a reason.  If a back up was capable of producing better than what these guys will likely give you then they wouldn't be back ups they would be starters getting paid a starters salary.

    You're not going to get guys that will put up sexy numbers as a back up short stop or a center fielder. And you're not going to go out and pay a starters salary for a guy to back up. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    I wish Ben got C Gentry

    Then if he could move Gomes, deal for Trumbo

    Get Drew at a team friendly deal

    The offense will be better than average....


    Bench of WMB, 1 of Trumbo or Nava, 1 of Gentry or JBJ, and Carp

    i'd be more concerned about the rotation

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to Iceman4's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    same here..........what has JBJ shown us that gives us total confidence in him anchoring CF and replacing Ellsbury?.........if he fails , what is the backup plan?

    He had a shot last year and faltered.

    [/QUOTE]

    How many 19 yr olds are great in the first year? Ok... Now how great was Crawford we wanted so bad? Gonzo ? Why do teams always dump can't miss  big money superstars? We can get this guy or that guy if team eats some contract?  Lets spend big and be happy until we fail and play the blame game. Not saying JBJis the answer just would like to see him do well  and hopefully our future. Your ifs go both ways . Ells was a if ? Pedrioa stunk the joint out when he came up the first few months?....Lucky those guys didn't  fail in the eyes that matter most. OR !!! we could have had a broken down long gone superstar in cf and 2nd....

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to andrewmitch's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I wish Ben got C Gentry

    Then if he could move Gomes, deal for Trumbo

    Get Drew at a team friendly deal

    The offense will be better than average....


    Bench of WMB, 1 of Trumbo or Nava, 1 of Gentry or JBJ, and Carp

    i'd be more concerned about the rotation

    [/QUOTE]

    You don't bench a guy like WMB, if he is not starting for us we trade him.  If you have a guy on your bench who has a starter potential he will always be much more valuable to your team elsewhere. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    If I was GM, I trade for Kemp, and sign Drew for no more than 2 years.  I start JBJ in AAA and make Bogie my U INF/super sub and use him to spell SS, 3B, and 2B, similar to last year.  I realize the salary would go well over the cap.  i would also trade one of Dempster/Peavy/Lackey along with Morales and at least one of Lavarnway, wright, etc who are fringe guys who are blocked for prospects or towards Kemp.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If I was GM, I trade for Kemp, and sign Drew for no more than 2 years.  I start JBJ in AAA and make Bogie my U INF/super sub and use him to spell SS, 3B, and 2B, similar to last year.  I realize the salary would go well over the cap.  i would also trade one of Dempster/Peavy/Lackey along with Morales and at least one of Lavarnway, wright, etc who are fringe guys who are blocked for prospects or towards Kemp.

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    If you were GM, do you trade for Kemp without demanding that Dodgers eat some of Kemp's salary?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
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    If I was GM, I trade for Kemp, and sign Drew for no more than 2 years.  I start JBJ in AAA and make Bogie my U INF/super sub and use him to spell SS, 3B, and 2B, similar to last year.  I realize the salary would go well over the cap.  i would also trade one of Dempster/Peavy/Lackey along with Morales and at least one of Lavarnway, wright, etc who are fringe guys who are blocked for prospects or towards Kemp.

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    If you were GM, do you trade for Kemp without demanding that Dodgers eat some of Kemp's salary?

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    Of coarse not.  I bet you can get them to eating about 30-40% of the total, or take on a dempster as part of the trade in exchange for a year's worth of "eating".  Maybe dempster, morales, Renaldo and they eat 30m starting year 2.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If I was GM, I trade for Kemp, and sign Drew for no more than 2 years.  I start JBJ in AAA and make Bogie my U INF/super sub and use him to spell SS, 3B, and 2B, similar to last year.  I realize the salary would go well over the cap.  i would also trade one of Dempster/Peavy/Lackey along with Morales and at least one of Lavarnway, wright, etc who are fringe guys who are blocked for prospects or towards Kemp.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think you need to do some studying on Kemps recent injury history, and also educate yourself on the "type" on injuries he's had.  Like I said in an earlier post.  I have an education and a background in health and human performance and while I'm not the god all knowing of everything on this subject I can say that it is pretty basic that his type of injury's do not bode well for his future.

    First of all he has had re-occurring injuries, not just freak ellsburyish accidents, but re-injuring the same thing.  he seems to keep re-injuring his hamstring, and his ankle....and i would have serious doubts about his shoulder going into the future. 

    He's also had soft tissue damage - bones grow back stronger, but when you tear a rotator cuff, or a Labrum.   These types of injury's often don't heal back 100% like a broken bone and often impede physical performance for the rest of ones life.

    He's also going to be 30 next year.

    Just say NO to KEMP!

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to SpacemanEephus' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    If I was GM, I trade for Kemp, and sign Drew for no more than 2 years.  I start JBJ in AAA and make Bogie my U INF/super sub and use him to spell SS, 3B, and 2B, similar to last year.  I realize the salary would go well over the cap.  i would also trade one of Dempster/Peavy/Lackey along with Morales and at least one of Lavarnway, wright, etc who are fringe guys who are blocked for prospects or towards Kemp.

    [/QUOTE]

    If you were GM, do you trade for Kemp without demanding that Dodgers eat some of Kemp's salary?

    [/QUOTE]


    Of coarse not.  I bet you can get them to eating about 30-40% of the total, or take on a dempster as part of the trade in exchange for a year's worth of "eating".  Maybe dempster, morales, Renaldo and they eat 30m starting year 2.

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    Heres the thing though, If LA eats salary they are going to want prospects in return.  Which will leave us with a depleted farm system for a guy who is highly probable to end up back on the D.L. and then we will have to turn to a depleted farm system for a guy to plug in...this makes no sense.

    If LA was going to eat a LARGE amount of his salary with a very small prospect return then that would make zero sense for LA...because at that point they are better off keeping him and seeing if he can stay healthy.  I mean why pay for him to play elsewhere with his talent if they aren't going to get back prospects?

    Just say NO to Kemp!

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    Well if we say no to Kemp and JBJ this year then lets start talking about Choo.  I actually like him better than ellsbury anyhow...

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Well if we say no to Kemp and JBJ this year then lets start talking about Choo.  I actually like him better than ellsbury anyhow...

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    STay away from Choo.  Choo/agent have been getting alof of offers, and still he/agent isnt accepting it.  Sound like they are trying to find the best offer as they can.  More likely they will find an offer that is slightly less than Ellsbury (approximately $108mm/6 years or 5yrs/90mm dollars contracts)

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Well if we say no to Kemp and JBJ this year then lets start talking about Choo.  I actually like him better than ellsbury anyhow...

    [/QUOTE]

    Sub par defense, platoon splits, and will likely command a $20 million a year contract.  He is 31 years old and will turn 32 next July...so whoever signs him will be paying 20 million plus a year for a guy into his late 30's.

    Have we learned nothing from these 20 million dollar contracts to 30 year old players?

    I don't like the idea of an upgrade for a sake of an upgrade.  I don't mind going out and overspending in FA, but I think that a team will be 100 times better off when they dish out the money for a position they have no options at and/or zero depth at. 

    But then his OBP is still respectable vs. LHP and corner outfield is an area of weakness...but a Gomes/Nava platoon gives you about the same production as Choo...and those two players combined will cost less than Choo.

    This is of course assuming you move Choo to LF because we already have a right fielder, so maybe his defense becomes good in left, but it is slightly subpar in right field. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    Although FWIW I'd rather roll the dice on Choo than Kemp........but I'm fine with a Nava/Gomes platoon for one more year. 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:

    Well if we say no to Kemp and JBJ this year then lets start talking about Choo.  I actually like him better than ellsbury anyhow...



    I would say that Cherrington should certainly keep an eye on the Choo market.  But, at this juncture, it certainly seems as if the FA mark-up is going to be steep on Choo.  Seems foolish to go long on years and money for a modest upgrade.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    A modest upgrade over Jake I would agree.  A steep upgrade over gomes/carp/nava.  A huge amount less risk and unknown upgrade over JBJ.  We have no idea if this guy can cut it at all guys.  None.  His shot last year to open the year showed he is not ready.  If Choo gets over 6 years I'm out, but I think the market is weak on him or he would be signed.  Him and drew I think are depressed market due to the draft pick attached.  I don't go over 6 and 16 for him.  I don't go over equivalent of 15/per for Kemp either.  JBJ needs to start in AAA.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from FL33178. Show FL33178's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A modest upgrade over Jake I would agree.  A steep upgrade over gomes/carp/nava.  A huge amount less risk and unknown upgrade over JBJ.  We have no idea if this guy can cut it at all guys.  None.  His shot last year to open the year showed he is not ready.  If Choo gets over 6 years I'm out, but I think the market is weak on him or he would be signed.  Him and drew I think are depressed market due to the draft pick attached.  I don't go over 6 and 16 for him.  I don't go over equivalent of 15/per for Kemp either.  JBJ needs to start in AAA.

    [/QUOTE]

    +1

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SpacemanEephus. Show SpacemanEephus's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A modest upgrade over Jake I would agree.  A steep upgrade over gomes/carp/nava.  A huge amount less risk and unknown upgrade over JBJ.  We have no idea if this guy can cut it at all guys.  None.  His shot last year to open the year showed he is not ready.  If Choo gets over 6 years I'm out, but I think the market is weak on him or he would be signed.  Him and drew I think are depressed market due to the draft pick attached.  I don't go over 6 and 16 for him.  I don't go over equivalent of 15/per for Kemp either.  JBJ needs to start in AAA.

    [/QUOTE]

    OK.  Not sure Choo is a 'steep' upgrade over Navacarpgomes.  But lets just say he is for arguement.  And of course it is possible that JBJ isn't ready this year.  

    And, like I said, I think Cherrington should have his eye on the market for Choo.  But, I think, even a depressed market for Choo goes well over 6/16.  And, no way I go 6 years on him.  5 max.  And no way LA eats enough of Kemp's contract to equal 15 per unless we give up a litany of blue chips.  

    Hey, if you are right and te market for Choo comes down to reasonable levels, fo sho, jump on him.  But no reason to be in any hurry there.  

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Flapjack07. Show Flapjack07's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Although FWIW I'd rather roll the dice on Choo than Kemp........but I'm fine with a Nava/Gomes platoon for one more year. 

    [/QUOTE]


    A lot of people probably don't realize our left fielders provided the third-best OPS from the position in MLB last season. The Nava/Gomes combination proved to be incredibly productive and should again in 2014.

    Kind of feels like we are searching for $100 million solutions where there really isn't a problem. Luckily, I doubt Ben C is.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Although FWIW I'd rather roll the dice on Choo than Kemp........but I'm fine with a Nava/Gomes platoon for one more year. 

    [/QUOTE]


    A lot of people probably don't realize our left fielders provided the third-best OPS from the position in MLB last season. The Nava/Gomes combination proved to be incredibly productive and should again in 2014.

    Kind of feels like we are searching for $100 million solutions where there really isn't a problem. Luckily, I doubt Ben C is.

    [/QUOTE]


    What are the odds we catch lightening in that bottle again.  Heck, last year was great.  Alot of the "fringe" moves we all hated at the time worked.  Drew, naps, Carp, Gomes, etc all played great.  I just hate to count on all of them doing it again PLUS JBJ, WMB, and Boggie playing as well as those other guys did.  Sometimes good enough just isn't quite enough...

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to fl+adam,'s comment:
    [QUOTE]

    A modest upgrade over Jake I would agree.  A steep upgrade over gomes/carp/nava.  A huge amount less risk and unknown upgrade over JBJ.  We have no idea if this guy can cut it at all guys.  None.  His shot last year to open the year showed he is not ready.  If Choo gets over 6 years I'm out, but I think the market is weak on him or he would be signed.  Him and drew I think are depressed market due to the draft pick attached.  I don't go over 6 and 16 for him.  I don't go over equivalent of 15/per for Kemp either.  JBJ needs to start in AAA.

    [/QUOTE]

    Red Sox production from LF last year was .278/.356/.434 with an .790 OPS 18 HR and 101 RBI's

    Choo posted a .285/.423/.462with a .835 OPS 15 HR's and 54 RBI's 

    Now the RBI's may be a function of the Red Sox having an overall better lineup, but the only real upgrade is the OBP skills.

    Choo is not a great defender but perhaps he would be average to above average in Fenway out in left.  So maybe you get a defensive upgrade there.

    For 16 million a year, I would be open for Choo.....but he's going to be getting more around 21/7.  And for that price tag I'll take the much cheaper Gomes/Nava Platoon. 

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Darn...Tigers signing Davis

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ctredsoxfanhugh's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Although FWIW I'd rather roll the dice on Choo than Kemp........but I'm fine with a Nava/Gomes platoon for one more year. 

    [/QUOTE]


    A lot of people probably don't realize our left fielders provided the third-best OPS from the position in MLB last season. The Nava/Gomes combination proved to be incredibly productive and should again in 2014.

    Kind of feels like we are searching for $100 million solutions where there really isn't a problem. Luckily, I doubt Ben C is.

    [/QUOTE]

    +2 

     

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