Re: Do the Math
posted at 5/24/2012 9:10 AM EDT
Yes, with 3 guys out of our line-up, we have scored 4 or less runs a little too often, but when we have, we should have 3 more wins. The staff let us down by not pitching well enough to get about 3 more wins.
You have posted a lot of drivel with fractions for "expected wins". You claim to have me on ignore, yet you have polluted this thread with your demented elderly rainman brain of bilge charts of nonsense so absurd that it says nothing while attempting to bugaboo as "sceintific aggreagate averages".
I wasn't aware that I had to notify you and bthe board when I chose to take you off ignore.
My charts show how we are doing as compared to other American League teams in games where a specific amount of runs are scored or allowed. Your whole crazy theory is based on observing each game and assigning blame accordingly. You then changed your criteria (as you always do when your theory disintegrates) to the offense now needing to score 'early", thereby you still blame the offense if the they score 5 or 6 runs later in the game and we lose 6-5 or 7-6. Your methodology is patently absurd.
Nobody is doubting that we have too many games with 3 or less runs scored. Most of us think that will change once Ellsbury, Sweeney, CC, return and now that we have Youk back. You won't see it that way, because you refuse to accept that Ellsbury will be a plus on offense over Byrd. More patent absurdity.
You are like the idiots who can't play a lick of golf but who use stats and talk about "strokes saved in putting".
When you posted "yes we have scored 4 runs or less a little to often, you get the idiots award. The Red Sox have scored 3 runs or less a little too often, you moron!
We have scored 3 and less as well as 4 and less to often. The league winning percent when scoring 4 runs is just barely over 50%. To make the playoffs, scoring 5 runs jumps the percent from .537 to .648. If you knew anything about baseball, you'd know that .537 will not make the playoffs, but .648 will. That's math, not "science".
Actually, my point is exactly what the W/L record says when the team scores 3 runs or less or 4 runs or more.
And the point you keep missing and refuse to even address is that when we do score 3 runs or less or 4 runs or less, we have lost more than the normal American League average winning percent in those low scoring games. Our pitching has not risen to the occasion enough to win our share of low scoring games. Expecting us to nefver score less than 4 runms a game is absurd. Thinking the only way to win is to avoid doing so, is even more absurd.
We have scored 1-3 runs 15 times this year. That doesn't and should mean we should be 0-15 in those games. We are 1-14 in those games, while the leagu average is 4-10. Yet, you lay 100% of the blame for those 14 losses on the offense. You won't even respond to the fact that other teams have staff's that out-duel other team's pitchers when they are doing well. The Rays have actually scored 1-3 runs more than us! Guess what. They are 6-13 in those games. See, it can be done with top quality pitching.
My point is not "the offense isn't good enough", you moron, it's when the offense does what it must do for the Red Sox to have a winning identity it, in fact, wins almost every time!!!!!!
This is a blatant lie. You have continously been calling on the Sox to trade for a big RH'd bat from Kemp to now Upton. You claim that the reason we are not winning is because our offense needs repair, not our pitching. Unlike you, I am not misrepresenting your position.
Of course if we score more runs, we should win more games, but so far this year, the reason we are not above .500 is more on the pitching than the hitting. Only a silly clown would argue otherwise.
Why not try and actually watch some games.
My point is that the Red Sox have been big losers ever since managment evidently is as stupid as you are and not as smart as Dan Duquette and understands that Manny hasn't been replaced...
See, you are contradicting yourself from one paragraph to the next.
You are claiming that the offense is not "doing what it must do", but the fact is, they are, even short-handed! It's the staff that overall, has not done what it must do to get us a few more wins... like letting up one less run in low scoring games,m orm like not losing games when we score 9 or 12 runs for them.
TB has 19 games of scoring 1-3 runs (20 of 0-4). We have 15 games with 1-3 and 17 games with 0-4 runs scored.
In 2011, the Sox scored 0 runs 11 times and 1-3 runs 44 times (11-33). Last year we won 25% of the games we scored 1-3 runs, this year we have won under 7% of those games. Last year, the rays were shut out 15 times! (4 more than us.) They also scored 1-3 runs 55 times (11 more times than us!) That's 15 more times the TB offense scored 0-3 runs!!!!! They were 14-41 in games of 1-3 runs scored. (About as 26% win %)
It is clearly not just the amount of games an offense scores 3 or under that determines playoff likelihood, pitcghing plays a key role. Sox history is full of times we had the best offense and missed out on even making the playoffs. It was only when we got Pedro, Curt, and Josh, did we really have a significant shot at some rings. (Having one ace was never enough.)