Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Seems reasonable except for Gonzo.  Except for playing at Petco, I think Gonzo would've been ~ .950 every year.  Youk seems slightly high also.  I assume he's his reverting to his norm, but the switch to 3B and his age argue against such a positive regression.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Youk was hurt for August and September.  His batting average dropped 30 points and he had 15 HRs.  If healthy, I can see him batting .280 with 20 HRs.

    Reddick is a wild card.  He was all over the place last year.  Batted 400 one month 200 another so who knows.

    Ortiz is also a wild card.  Who knows what he's goin to do.  His career has been a roller coaster - granted he smoothed out between 2003 to 2007, but he was up and down before that and after that.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Reddick is the glaring mark for me with the projected 19 HRs. Seems like a lot for him.  However, he did hit 7 in almost 90 games last year so maybe him playing more games coupled with him a little more comfortable at the MLB level it is possible.  It also looks like he is projecting a realitively 'healthy' lineup and that is something you can never truly count on. 
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Anyone can predict any numbers they want to, so what Bill James gives for the upcoming year is strictly a crap shot. Of course he uses numbers complied from the previous year and figures out the average per player. He doesn't allow for any player having a break out year such as Ellsbury in 2011. Bill James numbers make for good reading in Dec., but to me mean little, and they certainly don't make winners out of anybody.
    Player's put up good or bad numbers by the way they prepare for the season, or injuries play a major part in the numbers game. I'm sure anyone connected with baseball are not reading number's and accessing their upcoming season on Bill James number's, well maybe the Sox are[were], but I hope that mentality went out with the former manager and GM.
     
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    I would be curious to see his 2011 projections compared to actual to see how close he was. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from attic-dan. Show attic-dan's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

      Numbers as a rule seem low, with the exception of Ortiz, who I think is too high. The Sox better fix their bull-pen because with those numbers I see a lot of close games.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Bill just said Sox will suk next season in a different way.  He thinks almost every player will have downturn expect few.  That's the way to predict after getting new manager, coaches etc... smart guy..
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmitch. Show andrewmitch's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Seems like #1-4 is not getting enough credit while #5-9 is getting too much credit

    And I'll take the "UNDER" on Carl please, thank you
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    I hope he is right, those are highly productive numbers. 
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?:
    [QUOTE]I hope he is right, those are highly productive numbers. 
    Posted by proftom[/QUOTE]

      Unless he has big production from bench the Sox are going to average about 4.5 runs per game, that's not enough with their current pitching staff. Offenses across the board will have to revert to Sixties level for Sox to thrive.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup? :   Unless he has big production from bench the Sox are going to average about 4.5 runs per game, that's not enough with their current pitching staff. Offenses across the board will have to revert to Sixties level for Sox to thrive.
    Posted by attic-dan[/QUOTE]
    Dan you are only looking at the RBI total for the starters which is 676.
    Last years RBI #'s total was 842. The bench contributed 165 RBIs.
    So if the bench contributes just 150 they will be only 16 short of last year RBI totals.

    BTW last year Runs scored was 875. So RBIs alone (by the starters) does not mean only scoring 4.5 runs per game. You need to look at Runs scored or as last year showed 875 / 162 = 5.40 per game. If the RS come within 25 of last year they will have a 5.24 per game runs scored.

    In the last 10 yrs the Runs scored low has been 818 the high 945 with an average around 877 per year. The starters have averaged 2/3 of the total every year. The bench and other reasons have been 1/3.

    So if the 2012 RS starters score 2/3 as has been the case for 10 yrs the starters will score 567 runs and the bench+ will be 284.
    Which will keep them at the top of the AL.

    BTW they still have to fix their BP & SP for 2012. The Runs scored last year was what kept them as close as they were all year.
    If they can score runs similarly to the past 10 yrs and reduce their over all ERA by 0.40 to 0.50 they will win it all. BTW that is back to a more normal number for past RS staffs. Especially the WS years.
     
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup? : Dan you are only looking at the RBI total for the starters which is
    Posted by JimfromFlorida[/QUOTE]

      The only positions that will be platooned are RF and Catcher, but don't see replacements getting the needed 150 plus runs the Sox will need. I still stand by post that Sox will need a serious upgrade in pitching to compete on championship level.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Teakus. Show Teakus's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    While it's fun to speculate, who can say? He certainly went conservative with his power numbers. I'd add 5 homers to literally everyone listed except Reddick, who I'd lower by 4-5. I also accounted for Ellsbury missing more than 4 games for the year-a wildly optimistic number, and I'm assuming Salty plays 120ish games. If anyone suggests Shoppach will cut into his AB's as a "defensive late inning replacement", I might just throw up. Kelly's defense is about as good as his offense, which is horrid and below MLB level. He should be used to rest Salty ONLY. We're gonna score some runs this year. And with our spooky looking bullpen, we're probably gonna need to.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup? :   The only positions that will be platooned are RF and Catcher, but don't see replacements getting the needed 150 plus runs the Sox will need. I still stand by post that Sox will need a serious upgrade in pitching to compete on championship level.
    Posted by attic-dan[/QUOTE]
    You answered before I finished looking up the numbers. It also has little to do with platooning but about injuries, platooning, etc....

    Numbers say 1/3 of runs scored come from the bench for the past 10 years.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from traven. Show traven's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Looks like he is wrong already if the rumors are true concerning Bailey coming to the Sox for Reddick.  Sox will have a RF that was not there last year it appears.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    I'll be happy if Youk can come back and put up those numbers.  I also think the HR totals for Pedroia and Ellsbury are low.  But by the same token, I am skeptical of Papi reaching 30 HRs and 104 RBI.  In any case, he is predicting a very good offensive team.  Seems a safe bet.
     
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    In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?:
    [QUOTE]Looks like he is wrong already if the rumors are true concerning Bailey coming to the Sox for Reddick.  Sox will have a RF that was not there last year it appears.
    Posted by traven[/QUOTE]

    Well I guess that we'll have to forgive Bill James for not foreseeing the departure of Reddick in a trade.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from sindarin-erebor. Show sindarin-erebor's posts

    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    No. I see many problems with his "projections". Youk playing 135 games, not a chance, Ells only hitting 19, I see him hitting more than that, Gonzo's average at .301, really?, Crawford's numbers overall seem too productive. I could go on, but see many glaring opportunities for him to be wrong. James himself admits these are only projections and that he has been "way wrong" in the past.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    Who cares?
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    No I disagree. I like
    Ellsbury
    Pedroia
    Crawford
    Gonzalez
    Youk
    Ortiz
    Sweeney
    Salty
    Scutaro
    I think Crawford bounces back and no way will he hit 6th.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    If Bobby Valentine will try Carl Crawford in RF in a number of parks and Ryan Lavarway in LF, the lineup in the post just before this could be very explosive, adding just that bit of righthanded power.  In other parks, playing Ryan Kalish in RF with Crawford in RF could be very productive.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

     I'm sure anyone connected with baseball are not reading number's and accessing their upcoming season on Bill James number's, well maybe the Sox are[were], but I hope that mentality went out with the former manager and GM.

    Of course they read them.  Just because you don't like numbers doesn't mean that the rest of the world doesn't rely on them.
     
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    Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?

    In Response to Re: Do you agree with Bill James projections for the 2012 Red Sox lineup?:
    [QUOTE]Bill just said Sox will suk next season in a different way.  He thinks almost every player will have downturn expect few.  That's the way to predict after getting new manager, coaches etc... smart guy..
    Posted by seannybboi[/QUOTE]

    I assume you didn't check that.  The overall OPS is slightly down, and the HRs are slightly up.
     

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