Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Do you try and extend him?  If so, for how many years and what base do you offer?

    If not, do you keep paying arbitration years for his final two years?

    If not, when do you trade him?

    If you trade him, what are you looking to get in return?

    Explain the reason for your decision. A GM has to plan in advance to do his job, so fans should not cheer or complain after the fact unless they are on the record about what they would do now.

    I would ship him before the end of the trade deadline this summer, and stress to the NL suitors that he is a budding star who is just now hitting his peak power years to go with the most excited baserunner in major league baseball. A sure Type A player who will net compensation picks for the small market suitors or a great value with the 2 arbitration years and compensation picks if a large market team is unable to extend him or sign him as a FA.  I would seek a star RH corner slugging OF late 20's or early 30's salary dump where the other team eats a large percentage of the remaining contract and a solid MLB catching prospect.


    (Note: I understand Boras' approach is to go to FA, but that doesn't mean Ellsbury would turn down a 4 year deal that gives him the financial security he currently doesn't have (it was rumored that he was a Madoff client), yet still allows him to become a FA at age 31. Since Theo says that speed doesn't age like power, Ellsbury should be in his prime when he hits FA. Boras would object because he only serves his personal interest, not his client, but Ellsbury might have hard time turning a big signing bonus and a guaranteed 30 to 40 million net after agency fees and taxes. Right now, he's one more injury away from losing 10's of millions, which would likely affect the dreams of his he and his family. Good time to approach him for an extension. He has said that the Red Sox have not discussed the idea of a possible extension)
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    I give him the entire season to prove himself - if I were to move him it would only be after this season - its time for Elles to put up the numbers, now or never, and here in Boston.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    In Response to Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?:
    [QUOTE]I give him the entire season to prove himself - if I were to move him it would only be after this season - its time for Elles to put up the numbers, now or never, and here in Boston.
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    Like he hasn't proved himself already.
    Lame.



     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    I think you try to sign him to a 4 year deal. He gives up 2 years of abritration to get a 4 year deal. However the wildcard here is Boras. He may incourage him to wait it out. Especially if Reyes get 7/140 which he really could.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    I agree, Burrito, but selling high and buying low is also a part of being succesful for building and reloading teams. If you wait and then he puts up big numbers, are you thinking from the point of view of keeping him then? Or would you sell high?

    I'd say if he puts up half decent numbers by this summer, particularly if he has a career high homer number, start shopping him hard. This team's success, short and long, will depend upon starting pitching. The offense stars are already in place. Just my two dollars, because of accrued inflation under Obama.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    In Response to Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury? : Like he hasn't proved himself already. Lame.
    Posted by harness[/QUOTE]


    Open your eyes - I am an Elles supporter and am only saying this is the season he must do what his potential has always suggested.

    Thus far he is still a player (oft-injured) who gets juggled between the 9 and 1 spot based on the fact he is inconsistent.

    Elles has NOT proved himself to be the player the front office had suggested he to be.

    What we need is for him to finally be the lead-off hitter of the team - and a good one.  Not the player who every year you end up dumping in and out of the 9th spot because he cannot stay consistent.





     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    BaseballGM if Elles finally proves himself this year I am for keeping him - of course now that Crawford is inked for 7 years even an all*star Elles becomes tradable, as no doubt his agent will ask for the moon, and I know we cannot carry to mega contracts for two lead-off type players.

    note:  Thanks to Crawford unmovable contract the Sox should be concentrating dollars for Youk and Pedroia before they even consider over-paying Elles. Crawford for all intense and purpose should be the future lead-off player on this team even if he has a high home-rum average.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    NWIH they extend him. He is planning for a big payday. Not going to happen.
     
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    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    BoJo and Harness are buying long term on Ellsbury, for the record.

    Burrito is hedging with warrants and puts.

    BaseballGM is selling in the next 2011 summer to winter amplitude in relation to the moving average.
     
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    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Rang hasn't indicated his plan.

    Rang, since you say there is no way Ellsbury would overrule his agent and agree to an extension along the lines of Pedroia, Youk, Lester, et al, do you trade him or ride him out and hope to sign him as a FA or hope that you get compensation under the next CBA?
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    harness are we to gather from your post that Elles is already the superior on base lead-off hitter that the team can count on to perform at a high level game in and game out, month to month, and year to year?

    Will you go on record on this?  Here and now?
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Too many variables.

    Q1-Kalish-If you think he's ready, and if you think he can play CF, then trade Ells for the RF equivalent of Ells.

    But if the answer is no, then you need a CF.

    So you move down the departure date.  Do we think Westmoreland will recover and play CF?  If the answer is yes, your best is probably letting him play through and getting two picks for him.

    But if the answer is no, then you need a CF.

    Again, it is always a matter of replacement value.  Our non-dealing with paps probably had as much to do with Bard as it did with Paps.  You're not going to offer Paps $10M when you might get a replacement for $1M.  Nor would you extend Ellsbury for $10M if we had a minor league replacement.

    But you have to be fairly sure about the replacement.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    In Response to Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?:
    [QUOTE]harness are we to gather from your post that Elles is already the superior on base lead-off hitter that the team can count on to perform at a high level game in and game out, month to month, and year to year? Will you go on record on this?  Here and now?
    Posted by BurritoT[/QUOTE]

    I'll go on record for that one.  Still doesn't mean I wouldn't trade him if the alignment is right.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from BurritoT. Show BurritoT's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    You could trade him now if the team is willing to have Crawford lead-off for the next few seasons - 
     
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    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Since CF is more about defense than offense, in terms of what's out there, I think it's pretty safe to say that the Red Sox will have no problem finding a cheap defensive replacement, inside or out, for CF if Ellsbury is traded. A solid RH Of is needed, for sure, either way. Crawford is signed long term, so that just leaves one starter spot. The Red Sox are loaded with left handed hitting good OF prospects. Crawford can be moved to CF, if needed. If Kalish isn't ready by 2012, Reddick has experience and could easily be a marginal one year platoon guy who can play CF with another cheap defensive replacement.

    Crawford is effectively Ellsbury's offensive replacement. The Red Sox need a solid young RH OF slugger. That leaves one OF slot. If a cheap platoon is used for CF, with one weaker hitting but strong fielding CF'er, the Red Sox get a better defensive OF and a more balanced and productive OF long term.

    I don't deem Ellsbury a long term value fit worthy of an extension, but what do I know. Most agree an extension is unlikely, and there is no guarantee the next CBA will give the compensation of now or whether Ellsbury will ever reach Type A status if the old system is renewed. Thus, planning has to be made in advance to avoid the kind of panic reaction moves that has trapped Theo on a number of occassions.


     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    True, Burrito, but it's a harder sell until he gets his BA above the mendoza line and gets his OBP up to his career average range. He can only go North from here, so once he gets around his career averages the trade green light is certainly on. Of course, Theo can just idle and burn gas at the second green light, he doesn't have to go.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Jacoby Ellsbury:

    2007 - Rookie year -    .353 BA  .393 OBP  (33 Games)
    2008 - 1st full season: .280 BA  .336 OBP  50 SB
    2009- 2nd full season:  .301 BA  .355 OBP  70 steals (lead league).
    2010 - hurt.

    He's proven himself at this stage in his career. 

    Here's a comparison:

    Carl Yastrzemski:

    1961 - 1st full season:  .266 BA  .324 OBP
    1962 - 2nd full season: .296 BA  .363 OBP

    Try using proper terminology. I can't read minds. There's a difference between "Proving" and "improving".

    Players do tend to improve after two full seasons.
    My stance on him is similar to Joe's: It depends on replacement value. Once CRAWBURY becomes apparent, replacing its value to the team by trading Jake will be problematic.

    If a deal can be made that would net Boston a more valuable piece, I'm all for it.

    Otherwise, extending him instead of losing him in 3 years makes sense.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    I don't think Boras or Ellsbury have shown any indication of wanting to do an extension deal. That's why NWIH. They want the big payday.  I think they are projecting the next few years to be solid and are looking for a big contract. If I were Ellsbury, I wouldn't be getting married any time soon. The big bucks are waiting for him if he performs as projected. I think he may even end up a type A  ( Edited ). 

    The Sox may want to extend him but I don't see it happening. They will hope for the 2 picks. ( Edited )
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Boomerangsdotcom. Show Boomerangsdotcom's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Personally, I think one place Ellsbury may end up fitting long term with this team is in RF. I think he could be an asset in RF for us if he continues to put up improved offensive numbers. His arm isn't that bad and he would have terrific range in Fenway's RF.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from BaseballGM. Show BaseballGM's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Here's a comparison:

    Carl Yastrzemski:

    1961 - 1st full season:  .266 BA  .324 OBP
    1962 - 2nd full season: .296 BA  .363 OBP

    I think Yaz was 22 in 1961, and do you have the other hitting numbers?

    Yaz was an all-star in his 3rd year in the majors.

    Harness is buying high on Ellsbury as a budding star in the Yaz mold. Interesting.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    His arm stinks.
    His fielding asset is his speed.
     
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    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Yaz hit 30 homers in his first two years in the majors.

    Ellsbury has a different profile than Yaz, as Ellsbury is a speed player. Ellsbury's OBP is the most important stat, and he's been unimpressive in that department for a speed profile.

    Anyway, good thread to get all the posters on the record.

    Rang, I don't there is any chance that Ellsbury and his arm will ever play everyday RF in Fenway. His arm is very weak, and he has serious issues with depth perception and running routes with a quiet upper body and a graceful stride which is essential to being a really good defensive outfielder. He's an offensive CF'er profile with a weak arm corner OF defensive profile. I think he's trying to uppercut more off his back foot to try and raise his homer numbers, because he's hard sell for a big long term contract in CF.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from harness. Show harness's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    I'm not comparing skill-set in my Yaz/Jake analogy.
    Only the fact that we are talking about TWO FULL SEASONS.

    Drawing any conclusions from TWO FULL SEASONS means you don't feel there's much area for improvement. I think he will improve - in several areas.

    I didn't judge Yaz on his first two years. I won't judge Jake any differently.
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from carnie. Show carnie's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Given the OF depth in the minors, I think he's trade bait. I wouldn't sell low on him however. Ells is a very good ballplayer. He does have a weak arm, which means he doesn't profile in right, but he's a good hitter who covers a lot od ground in the outfield. Plus he seems to be developing more pop as he gains experience.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from RSF4Life234. Show RSF4Life234's posts

    Re: Do you try and extend Ellsbury?

    Could go either way, i think if they can extend him for relatively cheap they will, but hes a Boras client so i dont know if thats possible. But for his current contract hes a good value.

     

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