Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million
posted at 1/16/2014 8:14 AM EST
In response to BMav's comment:
In response to cassvt2004's comment:
This will likely push Jon Lester's market value up into the 23-25 mil per year range. I was hoping they'd be able to sign him for around 5/100m, but now its looking closer to a 6/135-140m deal for Lester...
Baseball Refference has Kershaw at 6.83 WAR average over the last 3 seasons. At 6 million per WAR, thats 41 million a year. Add the fact he is 25 and will not likely be getting worse any time soon and you could agrue this is a bargain.
Lester on the other hand has averaged 2.7 WAR the last 3 seasons. At 6 million a year that is 16.2 million. Add the fact that Lester is 30 and that the last two seasons Lesters WAR is even worse[1.9] and Kershaw is even better[7.0] and the idea that Kershaw and Lester are even in the same ball park does not make sense.
Lester is not Kershaw. He is not Cole Hamels either. He is less then a 20 million dollar pitcher.
I think Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson are better comps. And they are getting 16 and 17 million a year.
I would agree that Lester today is not in Kershaws league given thier respective perfromances in the last two years, but his signing does and will effect the cost of signing top of the rotation free agent starters and will have a trickle down effect on all pitchers salaries moving forward. David Price and his agent are both having a champagne breakfast this morning....The Ray's front office are probably shaking thier heads..
That said, If Lester were on the market this offseason after his postseason performance and his body of work career to date, given he's healthy, he'd be the number 1 target, too include Tanaka. When Weaver and Wislon's signed thier contracts. I believe Santana and Sabathia represented the top end @ 23M per. Weaver signed an extension with the Angels and thus never went to market. Both he and Wilson's deals were in line with free agent contracts signed by Lackey and AJ Burnett. Top end guys were in the 20M to 23M range with the second tier in the 16M to 18M range....In 2013 the Tigers inflated the market for top guys when they signed Verlander to a 7/180M extension, where starting in 2015 he'll make 28M per for four years....Kershaw's deal has now set another bar @ 30M. So if we use basic math, Weaver's annual salary at the time calculates to 73% of the value of Sabathia's.
Thus if the market follows the same pattern and Lester falls into the same category in terms of comp wages and perfromance profile as Weaver to Sabathia based on the math of 73% of the top wage of 30M, he'd be in line for a minimum of 22M. As a free agent if he pitches well in 2014 30 starts, 210 innings with a sub 3.75 ERA and almost as important finishes the year healthy....it's not a huge leap to assume he'd get offers in the 4 to 5 year range @ 24 to 26M per...