Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to slasher9's comment:

    he has a TON of innings on his arm already.  this move will be a disaster in 3 or 4 years.

    name a lefty with that many IP before 25 that pitched well at 30?

     




    Sabathia has always been a horse. He had pitched over 1100 innings when he turned 25.

    But, it may be catching up to him now.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    he has a TON of innings on his arm already.  this move will be a disaster in 3 or 4 years.

    name a lefty with that many IP before 25 that pitched well at 30?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Sabathia has always been a horse.

    But, it may be catching up to him now.

    [/QUOTE]


    yup - good one.  CC pitched well at age 30.

    CC at age 25 had thrown 1,163 innings.

    $30MM man at age 25 has thrown 1,180.  so the camparison is valid.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ThefourBs. Show ThefourBs's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    he has a TON of innings on his arm already.  this move will be a disaster in 3 or 4 years.

    name a lefty with that many IP before 25 that pitched well at 30?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Sabathia has always been a horse.

    But, it may be catching up to him now.

    [/QUOTE]


    yup - good one.  CC pitched well at age 30.

    CC at age 25 had thrown 1,163 innings.

    $30MM man at age 25 has thrown 1,180.  so the camparison is valid.

    [/QUOTE]


    Kershaw isn't built like CC.

    It'll be interesting to see how he holds up.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Beantowne's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BMav's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to cassvt2004's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This will likely push Jon Lester's market value up into the 23-25 mil per year range.  I was hoping they'd be able to sign him for around 5/100m, but now its looking closer to a 6/135-140m deal for Lester...

    [/QUOTE]

    Baseball Refference has Kershaw at 6.83 WAR average over the last 3 seasons. At 6 million per WAR, thats 41 million a year. Add the fact he is 25 and will not likely be getting worse any time soon and you could agrue this is a bargain.

    Lester on the other hand has averaged 2.7 WAR the last 3 seasons. At 6 million a year that is 16.2 million. Add the fact that Lester is 30 and that the last two seasons Lesters WAR is even worse[1.9] and Kershaw is even better[7.0] and the idea that Kershaw and Lester are even in the same ball park does not make sense.

    Lester is not Kershaw. He is not Cole Hamels either. He is less then a 20 million dollar pitcher.

    I think Jared Weaver and C.J. Wilson are better comps. And they are getting 16 and 17 million a year.

    [/QUOTE]

    I would agree that Lester today is not in Kershaws league given thier respective perfromances in the last two years, but his signing does and will effect the cost of signing top of the rotation free agent starters and will have a trickle down effect on all pitchers salaries moving forward. David Price and his agent are both having a champagne breakfast this morning....The Ray's front office are probably shaking thier heads..

    That said, If Lester were on the market this offseason after his postseason performance and his body of work career to date, given he's healthy, he'd be the number 1 target, too include Tanaka. When Weaver and Wislon's signed thier contracts. I believe Santana and Sabathia represented the top end @ 23M per. Weaver signed an extension with the Angels and thus never went to market. Both he and Wilson's deals were in line with free agent contracts signed by Lackey and AJ Burnett. Top end guys were in the 20M to 23M range with the second tier in the 16M to 18M range....In 2013 the Tigers inflated the market for top guys when they signed Verlander to a 7/180M extension, where starting in 2015 he'll make 28M per for four years....Kershaw's deal has now set another bar @ 30M. So if we use basic math, Weaver's annual salary at the time calculates to 73% of the value of Sabathia's.

    Thus if the market follows the same pattern and Lester falls into the same category in terms of comp wages and perfromance profile as Weaver to Sabathia based on the math of 73% of the top wage of 30M, he'd be in line for a minimum of 22M. As a free agent if he pitches well in 2014 30 starts, 210 innings with a sub 3.75 ERA and almost as important finishes the year healthy....it's not a huge leap to assume he'd get offers in the 4 to 5 year range @ 24 to 26M per...

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Sox do not have to sign Lester. Let him walk to get filthy rich on someone else money. He can be replaced .And people aready saying to me .... With who?.... If Lester ever got hurt do you think Sox would replace him? YES !!! and with a another arm that would make up for him.People think players  can't be replaced  and need the team to shell out multi millions to keep them. Thats crap if you believe that. If every team laughed at Kershaws demand would he settle for way less ? Dam right he would.That goes for every players demands. You don't need that problem.Bring the game back to the Fans wallet and lets not put Baseball for only the rich. To the posters on here  who love to spend others money to get a so called must have player have no clue.Bring your family of four to a game or buy a season ticket ?  The fans are in control and don't even know it.

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from slasher9. Show slasher9's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to ThefourBs' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to slasher9's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    he has a TON of innings on his arm already.  this move will be a disaster in 3 or 4 years.

    name a lefty with that many IP before 25 that pitched well at 30?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    Sabathia has always been a horse.

    But, it may be catching up to him now.

    [/QUOTE]


    yup - good one.  CC pitched well at age 30.

    CC at age 25 had thrown 1,163 innings.

    $30MM man at age 25 has thrown 1,180.  so the camparison is valid.

    [/QUOTE]


    Kershaw isn't built like CC.

    It'll be interesting to see how he holds up.

    [/QUOTE]


    another good point.

    more LHP comparisons IP thru age 25:

    Dontrelle by age 25:  1,021 IP.

    Jim Abbott :  1,060 IP. 

    Kazmir:  1,015 (jury still out)

    Lester only had about 500ip thru 25.

     

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from charliedarling. Show charliedarling's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    No one can blame Kershaw for accepting this contract because all of us would have also signed it, too.

    BUT, a million per start for seven years just does not seem quite right to this old boy.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from CablesWyndBairn. Show CablesWyndBairn's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to southpaw777's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Lester should get at least 5/100M deal.

    You cant really go by what LAD and NYY pay guys. Thats not the norm. But I fingure 20-23M per over 4-5 years for Lester is realistic.

    [/QUOTE]


    I agree the Kershaw contract is out of the normal range, but I think Lester knows that the Sox aren't Kansas City, either. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Flapjack07's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/dodgers-to-extend-clayton-kershaw.html

     

    I figured this deserved a thread. Biggest deal ever for a pitcher and first contract with $30 million AAV.

    Think they'll still be in on Tanaka for $100 million-plus? Wow.

    [/QUOTE]

         The Dodgers are insane to pay that much for Kershaw. This could have a detrimental  effect on the Lester extension talks.

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million


    Sox do not have to sign Lester. Let him walk to get filthy rich on someone else money. He can be replaced .And people aready saying to me .... With who?.... If Lester ever got hurt do you think Sox would replace him? YES !!! and with a another arm that would make up for him.People think players can't be replaced and need the team to shell out multi millions to keep them. Thats crap if you believe that. If every team laughed at Kershaws demand would he settle for way less ? Dam right he would.That goes for every players demands. You don't need that problem.Bring the game back to the Fans wallet and lets not put Baseball for only the rich. To the posters on here who love to spend others money to get a so called must have player have no clue.Bring your family of four to a game or buy a season ticket ? The fans are in control and don't even know it.

    Don,

    I get your agnst about the entire financial model that is baseball. End of the day not sure that your apparent discust with the moneys players are paid and the cost of attending a game will effect change...It's called capitalism...We the fans support the game with our hard earned moneys and while it's true that the entire "empire" of MLB would crumble without we the fans. Fact is that attendence has increased year over year for more than a decade. So why would any team let alone everyteam stand firm and not sign a player like Kershaw when in fact the owners are themselves are reaping billions in franchise values.

    As for Lester, true we don't need him and as you stated everyone is replaceable...but why would the Sox let him walk if they felt as though he was worth the investment...it's not like they'd replace him with someone of equal value for less.

     

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from donrd4. Show donrd4's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Beantowne's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Sox do not have to sign Lester. Let him walk to get filthy rich on someone else money. He can be replaced .And people aready saying to me .... With who?.... If Lester ever got hurt do you think Sox would replace him? YES !!! and with a another arm that would make up for him.People think players can't be replaced and need the team to shell out multi millions to keep them. Thats crap if you believe that. If every team laughed at Kershaws demand would he settle for way less ? Dam right he would.That goes for every players demands. You don't need that problem.Bring the game back to the Fans wallet and lets not put Baseball for only the rich. To the posters on here who love to spend others money to get a so called must have player have no clue.Bring your family of four to a game or buy a season ticket ? The fans are in control and don't even know it.

    Don,

    I get your agnst about the entire financial model that is baseball. End of the day not sure that your apparent discust with the moneys players are paid and the cost of attending a game will effect change...It's called capitalism...We the fans support the game with our hard earned moneys and while it's true that the entire "empire" of MLB would crumble without we the fans. Fact is that attendence has increased year over year for more than a decade. So why would any team let alone everyteam stand firm and not sign a player like Kershaw when in fact the owners are themselves are reaping billions in franchise values.

    As for Lester, true we don't need him and as you stated everyone is replaceable...but why would the Sox let him walk if they felt as though he was worth the investment...it's not like they'd replace him with someone of equal value for less.

     

    Agree with most of what you said..... But only way owners can reap billions if we the fans give in and pay whatever to these filthy rich and getting richer owners. We are suckers and thats why your 300 million dollar player isn't that far off.... We fans did this and now we pay the price . Lets empty Dodger stadium and see what 215 mil is really worth.......

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from J-BAY. Show J-BAY's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    Dodgers GM met with Tankaks agent,  everyday of this past week. Rumor has it Tanaka and his wife, prefer the West Coast. Dodgers just keep printing money. 

     

    Even after signing Clayton Kershaw to a record-breaking deal, the Dodgers remain in active talks with Masahiro Tanaka’s agent.

    General Manager Ned Colletti said he has spoken with agent Casey Close every day this week except Thursday.

    Tanaka is expected to land a contract worth more than $100 million. In addition to that, the team that signs Tanaka will owe a $20-million posting fee to his Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles.

    Close also represents Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Kershaw said he hasn’t been asked to help recruit Tanaka to the Dodgers.

    According to Japanese news reports, Tanaka’s personal assistant said Tanaka still hasn’t decided where he wants to play.

    “I don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Yoshiki Sato, the former public relations director for the Golden Eagles.

     



    http://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgersnow/la-sp-dn-dodgers-active-talks-masahiro-tanaka-agent-20140117,0,2823172.story#ixzz2qmTW0RqU

     

     

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    I think the Kershaw deal was a win / win. The guy is an absolute stud and in case you haven't noticed the price of top talent has been escalating a lot recently.

    Part of that is the new TV deals being cut all over mlb, including the national deals which may well result in revenue sharing money of up to $40 mil or more per year as of this year. A team like the Marlins or Houston don't even have to have any fans with revenue sharing deals like that but they also have their own regional TV deals as well. Any team in mlb can now buy top talent if they want to. At least on a selective basis.

    What Lester gets will depend on what he does next year. If he has another year like 2013 he could well net a $150 mil deal himself. Crazy but the data supports it. The guy was an animal in the playoffs after a decent overall year.

     

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    A lot of people think we extend Lester in ST but I think I would wait it out. I don't think he's offering a hometown discount and why wouldn't he wait to see what he gets in the open market unless he is not confident he can put up solid numbers in 2014?

    He may be great again or maybe not. It's a gamble.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hfxsoxnut. Show Hfxsoxnut's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    It's quite possible the Sox already have an extension agreement with Lester but are waiting till the season starts to make it official, thereby keeping his AAV for 2014 at 13 million.  They've used this ploy on several occasions over the years, most recently with A-Gon and Beckett. 

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from fanonymost. Show fanonymost's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    this is just STUPID money :

    $1M per start??? ...

    $1.5M per win??? ...

    $3M per victory above 50-50??? 

    "C'mon man!"

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    In response to Hfxsoxnut's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    It's quite possible the Sox already have an extension agreement with Lester but are waiting till the season starts to make it official, thereby keeping his AAV for 2014 at 13 million.  They've used this ploy on several occasions over the years, most recently with A-Gon and Beckett. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Certainly plausible and makes a ton of sense.

    Things have been eerily quiet on Yawkey way of late. I would think that once Tanaka signs, they'll be a flurry of signings of the top starters left on the market. Then teams who miss out on the top guys and still need pitching will look to make trades. I would think that Drew, Cruz and Morales all will land somewhere could be that the teams that have interest in signing them are also in on one of the remaining starters....The next two or three weeks could get interesting.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ice-Cream. Show Ice-Cream's posts

    Re: Dodgers Extend Kershaw for 7 years, $215 million

    If Kershaw is getting $30 million per year then imagine how much Trout will get.  

     

     

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