Re: Ellsbury Replacement?.... not sure I like this one
posted at 11/14/2013 11:34 AM EST
In response to RedSoxDOrtiz's comment:
Young would not replace Ells, JBJ would replace Ells and Young would be the utility outfielder would would be insurance in case Victorino or JBJ get injured or are underperforming. He had a down year last year and had some good pop in Arizona. He is a better hitter than his numbers with the A's showed and he gets on base at a good clip with 20 HR power. I think he is an excellent 5th outfielder. I posted this in another Ellsbury thread, but thought it was worth reposting here as well since we are analyzing why the Sox need to have some insurance in case JBJ can't perform in the show.
I love JBJ, but we must be realistic and temper our expectations of the kid.
2012 AA--229 AB-- 271 Avg, 6 HR, 373 OBP, 437 SLG, 809 OPS, 8 SB, 3 CS
2013 AAA--320 AB-- 275 Avg, 10 HR, 374 OBP, 469 SLG, 842 OPS, 7 SB, 7 CS
2013 MLB--95 AB-- 189 Avg, 3 HR, 280 OBP, 337 SLG, 617 OPS, 2 SB, 0 CS
Ells career averages
2912 AB, 65 HR, 297 Avg, 350 OBP, 439 SLG, 789 OPS, 241 SB, 46 CS
Those numbers for Ells might be a little pulled up because of that one freak year he had when he was in the running for league MVP (cough cough enhanced season)... he has never hit more than 10 homers in a season before or after, his slugging never exceedeed his career average of 439 except his rookie year... that's how much of a difference the power season of Ells had on his career numbers. That said, there is enough of a sample size to see that Ells had better career numbers in the majors than Jackie did in the minors.
We can expect a large drop off of production on the base paths as Bradley is a smart base runner like Pedroia as he has good instincts and gets good jumps, but isn't a true base stealing threat. Ells has game changing speed and a solid career average. The top side of what we can expect from JBJ in terms of average will be less than the career average for Ells. That said, JBJ appears to have a better eye and will walk more than Ells with slightly equal to slightly more power (except for Ellsbury's juiced up season). The freakish 9.1 WAR in Ells enhanced season makes up for the injury seasons and his average WAR is 3.95 per season... or 4 to be modest and is projected to have a 4.2 WAR next year.
JBJ is projected to have a 252 Avg, 334 OBP, 399 SLG and 0.3 WAR next season (partially due to them only projecting him to get 133 at bats, but that number goes up to about 1.2-1.8 with a full season). That is a 4 win drop off from what Ells gave us this year. It is basically in line with what Nava gave us this season.
So in a nutshell, what people should expect from JBJ is Daniel Nava with better defense... not Ells. Now that makes for a solid major league player, especially since Bradley has elite defense and a great arm... but people should not expect JBJ to be a player he is not. He is what he is and his ceiling isn't as high as other prospects but his floor isn't as low either. He is going to come as a quasi finished product and won't probably improve too too much besides adding a bit of power over time and possibly improve K rates and BB rates. This will be the equivallent of going from Johnny Damon to Coco Crisp... both very good players, but a very clear step down.
[/QUOTE] better on base paths & probably a better arm