Re: Ellsbury - The Market
posted at 10/11/2012 12:23 AM EDT
In response to seabeachfred's comment:
In response to jasko2248's comment:
In response to notin's comment:
Many feel the Sox will deal Ellbury this offseason. And they might.
But for who? Sure, the Sox need a SP, but who will deal one for a single year of Ellsbury. Given that he is a free agent after 2013 and represented by Scott Boras (and everyone knows what that means), his appeal will be limited to teams hoping to contend, also known as teams not dealing starting pitching.
Also, this might be the wrong year to deal a CF. The FA market OF talent pretty much all plays CF, with Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Victorino, Ichiro, Pagan and even Melky available. Why surrender talent?
So what are the epxectations if Ellsbury is dealt?
I'm guessing they don't move him, unless they get an "overpay," and I just don't see it. As you mentioned, there are plenty of free agent centerfielders, he's not going to agree to a sign and trade and he'll likely go to the highest bidder after next year. He's also been injury prone (kind of flukey), so I'm not sure what kind of value he will have.
I think the Sox would be more than happy to hope he has a big year next year and gladly let him walk, take the draft pick and hope Bradley or Kalish is ready in 2014. If they plan on contending next year, they are likely better off keeping him.
Jasko, Notin's right!!! We are stuck between a rock and hard place concerning Ellsbury. No team unless they are in need of a CF and have excess starting pitching of a high quality will want to trade for a guy who will walk after 2013, and with Boras as agent any team that tries to keep him after one year will have to ante up the big boodle of cash. I just don't see it unless we trade him for just average pitching and what good does that does us? I wonder if Ells would just tell Boras he wants to stay with the Sox and to get a new deal done. I doubt that will happen, but consider that there are going to be a lot of CF's available this winter and most are not as injury prone as Jacoby has been, and I don't think any of them are represented by Boras.
Looks like a bad scene from where I sit.
Why is it a "bad scene?" Having a fairly young centerfielder one year removed from an MVP caliber season playing for a contract next year isn't such a bad thing.
By the way, Ellsbury is not bringing back a "high quality" starting pitcher, so they might as well keep him, unless, again, a team overpays for some strange reason and offers some quality prospects.
They aren't going to field a team of "kids" next year along with some retreads. They have the nucleus to be competitive and they may "overpay" on some short term deals for a Jake Peavy type, because thanks to the Dodgers, they now have all of the flexibility in the world.