Re: Ellsbury - The Market
posted at 10/11/2012 3:01 PM EDT
moon - Aviles will be a free agent. He won't be offered arbitration.
He will be offered arb, get a small raise, and be traded to one of several teams with poor SSs (like Oakland, who tried to trade for him this year).
Lavarnway isn't worth anything right now...
He is too. Not all GM make definitive judgements based on puny sample sizes.
and Breslow is another of lots of relievers.
Breslow is a quality lefty reliever that does pretty well vs RHBs as well. As part of a package, he adds value. Alone- not so much.
Given Ellsbury's contract status, the Red Sox would have to throw in a top 5 prospect.
The thing is, the team we will trade Ellsbury to will be a contender looking to improve next year. They will more likely want guys that can help in 2013. That is why I brought up the names of players that will be FAs soon for us, not prospects. The "prospect: they would get in return is the sandwich pick they get after Ells walks following the 2013 season.
And a question for you: Do you think Oakland would take Ellsbury for a year and give up a 25 year old Anderson?
It may take a 3 team deal. Or, they may just take Aviles, Lavarnway, Brentz, and Tazawa.
Can they afford Ellsbury?
No. We'd have to pay part of his arb deal or involve a 3rd team.
Has their formula worked?
Yes, they trade players like Anderson away almost every year. (See Giom last year.)
The same can be said for Tampa. Those teams won't give up that pitching for a player they'll get one year out of.
TB is proven to be hawks for those sandwich picks. They'd value that dearly, but you are right, they'd want prospects not Ellsbury.