Ellsbury - The Market

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    This team has the nucleus to be competitive next year and they WILL put together a team that should be competitive "on paper." As it stands right now, theyarguably have a better roster than Baltimore. It doesn't have to be by signing "every big name free agent," either.

    We'd need to sign Hamilton, Greinke & Peavy and then trade for a 1Bman like Morneau just to have an outside chance at a ring.

    As an example, if they sign a Peavy and a Hunter, and trade for a decent 1st base bat, they should be very competitive. They also have the resources to add significant depth, something they weren't able to do last year. This whole idea that the Sox are going to have 4 or 5 kids ready in 2014 isn't reality. Some will regress, get injured, traded, etc...They don't have to blow up the roster this winter to be competitive again. It's already been done...

     

    We are not coming close to winning next year with Peavy, Hunter and a decent 1B bat.

    We will have a better chance in 2014 than 2013. It's not just about kids becomming ready, but also about guys like Middlebrooks, Doubront, Morales, Moretnsen, Tazawa, and others getting closer to prime, and no important players going post-prime.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    In response to jasko2248's comment:
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    In response to moonslav59's comment:
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    Why do you want to cut him loose when we can sign him and trade him for something?

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    It's all probbly moot, as it wouldn't seem likely that he would accept arbitration anyway..

    We can disagree, but I'd still like to know why you think the Sox will give up on getting something for Aviles in favor of letting Aviles go to free agency and make his own deal. The only reason we'd let him go is if...

    1) We think nobody wants him.

    2) We think he will win his arb case and will be too over-priced to trade without us having to pay part of his contract.

    Do you think either of these cases is or can be true?

     

    He has no choice. He is bound to arbitration for 2 more years.

    The Sox determine his fate, and they will certainly offer him arb, probably sign him before they go to arb like they always do, then trade him to a team like the A's for a good B Level prospect, or as part of a package for a better player.

    Mike's career OPS is .715. That is better than 20 team's SS OPS in 2012. He has enough value to trade, especially since he seems to be a pretty decent fielder as well.

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    I'll agree to disagree.  I don't think they offer him arbitration and they let him find his own deal.  I guess we'll see...

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    Aviles wants to have an opportunity to start and he won't get that here.  His agent will almost certainly ask the Sox to let him walk.  I think they'll give him the opportunity to do so, and there is always the possibility that he won't be happy if they offer him arbitration.  He could then to go to a hearing and they end up paying him 3 million next year to play somewhere else.  I could certainly be wrong, but I don't think they go the arbitration route with him.

      Believe it or not, teams will let a well respected player go to give them an another opportunity with another team.  An example is David Murphy in the Gagne trade.  That was all about the Sox giving a player a shot who wasn't going to get one in Boston at the time.  I could certainly be wrong on the Aviles situation, only time will tell... 

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasko2248. Show jasko2248's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This team has the nucleus to be competitive next year and they WILL put together a team that should be competitive "on paper." As it stands right now, theyarguably have a better roster than Baltimore. It doesn't have to be by signing "every big name free agent," either.

    We'd need to  "sign Hamilton, Greinke & Peavy and then trade for a 1Bman like Morneau just to have an outside chance at a ring".  An "outside chance?!?!?" A lineup with Ells, Pedey, Hamilton, Ortiz, Morneau, Middlebrooks, Salty, Kalish, Iglesias and a rotation of Greinke, Peavy, Buch, Lester, Doubront, Lackey, Morale etc..only has an "outside shot" on paper???? That's ridiculous. They aren't interested in Greinke or Hamilton, so your proposal is pie in the sky, but I'm not sure why you think they can't be competitive with this nucleus.  Would you trade this 25 man roster for Baltimore's or Oakland's?  I doubt it...

    That's your opinion, but it makes absolutely no sense to me.  All star teams don't win Championships by the way. 

    As an example, if they sign a Peavy and a Hunter, and trade for a decent 1st base bat, they should be very competitive. They also have the resources to add significant depth, something they weren't able to do last year. This whole idea that the Sox are going to have 4 or 5 kids ready in 2014 isn't reality. Some will regress, get injured, traded, etc...They don't have to blow up the roster this winter to be competitive again. It's already been done...

     

    We are not coming close to winning next year with Peavy, Hunter and a decent 1B bat.

    We will have a better chance in 2014 than 2013. It's not just about kids becomming ready, but also about guys like Middlebrooks, Doubront, Morales, Moretnsen, Tazawa, and others getting closer to prime, and no important players going post-prime.

    [/QUOTE]


     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    This team has the nucleus to be competitive next year and they WILL put together a team that should be competitive "on paper." As it stands right now, theyarguably have a better roster than Baltimore. It doesn't have to be by signing "every big name free agent," either.

    We'd need to sign Hamilton, Greinke & Peavy and then trade for a 1Bman like Morneau just to have an outside chance at a ring.

    As an example, if they sign a Peavy and a Hunter, and trade for a decent 1st base bat, they should be very competitive. They also have the resources to add significant depth, something they weren't able to do last year. This whole idea that the Sox are going to have 4 or 5 kids ready in 2014 isn't reality. Some will regress, get injured, traded, etc...They don't have to blow up the roster this winter to be competitive again. It's already been done...

     

    We are not coming close to winning next year with Peavy, Hunter and a decent 1B bat.

    We will have a better chance in 2014 than 2013. It's not just about kids becomming ready, but also about guys like Middlebrooks, Doubront, Morales, Moretnsen, Tazawa, and others getting closer to prime, and no important players going post-prime.

    [/QUOTE]


    Sorry Moon, but I think this team has a core of players that are capable of competing in 2013. World Series? I guess anything can happen in MLB, just ask the A's and O's.

    A couple good moves, better health, and yea a little luck from the baseball Gods, and anything is possible...

    Ells, Pedey, Papi, WMB, Ross, Salty, Buch, Lester, Doubront is a nice batch of players that are very capable of competing...Add the right pieces to that mix with the right coaching staff and we'll see what happens come 2013. Me, I'll take that core of players any day.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Sorry Moon, but I think this team has a core of players that are capable of competing in 2013. World Series? I guess anything can happen in MLB, just ask the A's and O's.

    Yes, they can, but realistically, I'm not even close to thinking it is probable. 

    A couple good moves, better health, and yea a little luck from the baseball Gods, and anything is possible...

    Of course, but we need to be pragmatic and take a serious look at our chances. Yes, we can make a strong push to be highly competitive in 2013, but unfortuneatley, this is a bad year for top ticket FAs, and I fear we may make the same mistake again (comparing to signing Lackey, CC and extending Beckett).

    Ells, Pedey, Papi, WMB, Ross, Salty, Buch, Lester, Doubront is a nice batch of players that are very capable of competing...Add the right pieces to that mix with the right coaching staff and we'll see what happens come 2013. Me, I'll take that core of players any day.

    You listed 9 players and spoke of adding 3 more (Peavy, Hunter & a 1Bman). The 9 you listed are all question marks with the exception of maybe Pedey and Buch...maybe. Hunter is ancient and in decline. Peavy is questionable as well. We'd need all 12 of these guys to be near the top of their game just to have an outside shot at making the playoffs let alone being a favorite to win a ring. 

    I do think we should make some moves to help be us be more competitive in 2013, but they should be geared towards 2014 and beyond as well. By saying we should trade Ellsbury is not saying I don't want to add several players that will make us better. I have laid out several proposals that include trading for J Upton and Brett Anderson along with signing some younger pitchers like McCarthey (if he is healthy). I'm also OK with signing "bridge players" to 1 year deals to carry us to 2014, but I am not expecting a 2013 miracle. I will be rooting for the Sox in 2013 as I always have, but I am trying to be realistic. I have a lot of faith in several Sox players improving over their 2012 season, but I just see 2014 & 2015 as our best chance at winning it all. I know the Papi and Ellsbury window may be closed by then, but if we can get something for Ellsbury, make some key trades and signings this winter for players under team control for 3+ years, we will be stronger in 2013, but more importantly, better positioned for 2014 and beyond.

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Aviles wants to have an opportunity to start and he won't get that here.  His agent will almost certainly ask the Sox to let him walk.  I think they'll give him the opportunity to do so, and there is always the possibility that he won't be happy if they offer him arbitration.  He could then to go to a hearing and they end up paying him 3 million next year to play somewhere else.  I could certainly be wrong, but I don't think they go the arbitration route with him.

      Believe it or not, teams will let a well respected player go to give them an another opportunity with another team.  An example is David Murphy in the Gagne trade.  That was all about the Sox giving a player a shot who wasn't going to get one in Boston at the time.  I could certainly be wrong on the Aviles situation, only time will tell... 

    He will get an opportunity to start with another team (like the A's) after we sign him and trade him for a prospect.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
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    Cherry was recently quoted as they are working towards a contract extenstion offer for Ellsbury, past 2013. Of course, he provides zero reason for doing so. Without a doubt, Cherry has no clue what he's doing.

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    Maybe he is baiting somone into a trade. You don't tell the world you think very little of a player you are trying to trade.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    How about trading Ellsbury for Sergio Romo & Hector Sanchez, then deal away Lava or Salty to a team in dire need of catching help (there are about 10 of them)?

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Skadude22. Show Skadude22's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Anderson is not the guy to target.  For one, I think trading Ellsbury would be done for top prospects, not for an impact player. Two, if you get back Anderson, do you honestly think the team as constructed (minus Ellsbury), is only one pitcher away from contending? You don't trade for impact players if you aren't close to competing, especially pitchers that only play once every 5 games.  You trade Ellsbury for the best prospect package possible, or you don't trade him. 

     

    The idea is to load up on young talent.  It increases the likelihood that you have prospects pan out, and it makes it more likely that you will have an influx of talent from the farm for the coming years.  This creates extreme payroll flexibility (with the whole 6 years of control rule) and allows you the freedom to add that one piece when the time is right.  This plan is predicated on the idea that you put a great deal of emphasis on scouting, so the prospects you get are guys that you are confident will develop and be successful.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to Skadude22's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anderson is not the guy to target.  For one, I think trading Ellsbury would be done for top prospects, not for an impact player. Two, if you get back Anderson, do you honestly think the team as constructed (minus Ellsbury), is only one pitcher away from contending? You don't trade for impact players if you aren't close to competing, especially pitchers that only play once every 5 games.  You trade Ellsbury for the best prospect package possible, or you don't trade him. 

     

    The idea is to load up on young talent.  It increases the likelihood that you have prospects pan out, and it makes it more likely that you will have an influx of talent from the farm for the coming years.  This creates extreme payroll flexibility (with the whole 6 years of control rule) and allows you the freedom to add that one piece when the time is right.  This plan is predicated on the idea that you put a great deal of emphasis on scouting, so the prospects you get are guys that you are confident will develop and be successful.

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    While I agree that it is much more likely that Ellsbury is traded for prospects, Anderson is under team control for 3 years. I never said Anderson puts us over the top, but he gets us closer for 2014 and 2015 than the draft pick we get when Ellsbury walks after 2013. We need more than just one solid starter, so trading 1 year of Ells & a draft pick for 3 yrs of Anderson is worth it.

    BTW, I think if we also trade for Upton and sign another SP, we will be very well placed for 2014 and beyond.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from SinceYaz. Show SinceYaz's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to seabeachfred's comment:
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    Jasko, Notin's right!!!  We are stuck between a rock and hard place concerning Ellsbury.  No team unless they are in need of a CF and have excess starting pitching of a high quality will want to trade for a guy who will walk after 2013, and with Boras as agent any team that tries to keep him after one year will have to ante up the big boodle of cash.  I just don't see it unless we trade him for just average pitching and what good does that does us?  I wonder if Ells would just tell Boras he wants to stay with the Sox and to get a new deal done.  I doubt that will happen, but consider that there are going to be a lot of CF's available this winter and most are not as injury prone as Jacoby has been, and I don't think any of them are represented by Boras.

    Looks like a bad scene from where I sit.

     

     

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    Fred,  It supposedly take three things coming together to make a perfect storm.  Notin and you have outlined that quite well here with Ells.   Only Hamilton seems to have injury or other issues that keeps him from playing.  So, the FA market for CFs seems overdone for this season. Boras is a serious sticking point, but he seems to be losing some cache.  Clubs are tired of his heavy handedness. 

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Sorry Moon, but I think this team has a core of players that are capable of competing in 2013. World Series? I guess anything can happen in MLB, just ask the A's and O's.

    Yes, they can, but realistically, I'm not even close to thinking it is probable. 

    A couple good moves, better health, and yea a little luck from the baseball Gods, and anything is possible...

    Of course, but we need to be pragmatic and take a serious look at our chances. Yes, we can make a strong push to be highly competitive in 2013, but unfortuneatley, this is a bad year for top ticket FAs, and I fear we may make the same mistake again (comparing to signing Lackey, CC and extending Beckett).

    Ells, Pedey, Papi, WMB, Ross, Salty, Buch, Lester, Doubront is a nice batch of players that are very capable of competing...Add the right pieces to that mix with the right coaching staff and we'll see what happens come 2013. Me, I'll take that core of players any day.

    You listed 9 players and spoke of adding 3 more (Peavy, Hunter & a 1Bman). The 9 you listed are all question marks with the exception of maybe Pedey and Buch...maybe. Hunter is ancient and in decline. Peavy is questionable as well. We'd need all 12 of these guys to be near the top of their game just to have an outside shot at making the playoffs let alone being a favorite to win a ring. 

    I do think we should make some moves to help be us be more competitive in 2013, but they should be geared towards 2014 and beyond as well. By saying we should trade Ellsbury is not saying I don't want to add several players that will make us better. I have laid out several proposals that include trading for J Upton and Brett Anderson along with signing some younger pitchers like McCarthey (if he is healthy). I'm also OK with signing "bridge players" to 1 year deals to carry us to 2014, but I am not expecting a 2013 miracle. I will be rooting for the Sox in 2013 as I always have, but I am trying to be realistic. I have a lot of faith in several Sox players improving over their 2012 season, but I just see 2014 & 2015 as our best chance at winning it all. I know the Papi and Ellsbury window may be closed by then, but if we can get something for Ellsbury, make some key trades and signings this winter for players under team control for 3+ years, we will be stronger in 2013, but more importantly, better positioned for 2014 and beyond.

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    I obviously coulve named more than nine. I just decided to stop there. I never named players to add to this team in my post, that was jasko. While I agree that we should be better in 2014, I dont discount the fact that we dont have to rely on the FA market to repeat past mistakes and can look to make some wise trades as well. They dont have to be blockbusters, just ones that make the current team better to be competitive in 2013 and beyond.

    I would rather get the best haul of prospects if dealing Ells. You know I think anyone with the last name Upton is a huge mistake, so we wont even go there. But If they could somehow make a deal for a top young pitcher that included Ells and more prospects I would go for that as well. It   would have to be a Gio Gonzalez type though.

    This lineup/pitching has as much, if not more potential talent than a lot of clubs out there, including 2 that went to the playoffs this year. O's and A's...Although i would never say were a WS contender, I do believe that they will put a very competitive team on the field next year that has the talent and could surprise some people.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Getting back to one of Hill55's points, Ellsbury isn't worth much at the break unless he is having a great year. And we lose the pick if he doesn't have a great year also. It is a little dangerous holding onto him. A team like Philly could really use him, assuming they are a contender next year. 

    All that said, a guy like Ellsbury can potentially carry a team into the playoffs if we can find a way to piece 5 good starters together. I'm not ruling out next year but I recognize it will not be easy. All we all that different from the Rays lineup next year if our starters step up, maybe with the addition of 1-2 more solid guys. Lackey may well come back strong. Buchholz may well emerge as one of the top guys in the league. Maybe we add a Kuroda or Sanchez and maybe Lester and Doubront/Morales/La Rosa give us a solid #5. I'm not giving up on next year.

    If we can get a solid return for Ellsbury I'm fine with it but if not I have no problem keeping him and hoping he returns to 2011 form ( which he might well do ).

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from southpaw777. Show southpaw777's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to RedsoxProspects' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Getting back to one of Hill55's points, Ellsbury isn't worth much at the break unless he is having a great year. And we lose the pick if he doesn't have a great year also. It is a little dangerous holding onto him. A team like Philly could really use him, assuming they are a contender next year. 

    All that said, a guy like Ellsbury can potentially carry a team into the playoffs if we can find a way to piece 5 good starters together. I'm not ruling out next year but I recognize it will not be easy. All we all that different from the Rays lineup next year if our starters step up, maybe with the addition of 1-2 more solid guys. Lackey may well come back strong. Buchholz may well emerge as one of the top guys in the league. Maybe we add a Kuroda or Sanchez and maybe Lester and Doubront/Morales/La Rosa give us a solid #5. I'm not giving up on next year.

    If we can get a solid return for Ellsbury I'm fine with it but if not I have no problem keeping him and hoping he returns to 2011 form ( which he might well do ).

    [/QUOTE]


    Same here Boom...If we can involve Ells in a trade that nets us a very solid return, then he should stay and play out his final year in the hopes he performs at a high level in his walk year and get compensation if/when he does walk.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Why is it a "bad scene?" Having a fairly young centerfielder one year removed from an MVP caliber season playing for a contract next year isn't such a bad thing. 

     

    It's not just not a bad thing, we are in almost perfect position.

    1-We have a player looking for contract year, and I'm a huge fan of contract years.

    2-We have a player exactly one year away from starting in CF.

    3-We make a qualifying off and pick up a #1.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Of course, once he has his contract year, the fans will once again be behind retaining Ellsbury, which will be next to impossible.

     

    I do think the trade market for him will be weak, so it is probably most likely he is back in Boston.  And were I to make a prediction, I think that is what I would choose.

     

    The only viable longshot might be a crazy deal where the Sox swap him for Cliff Lee.  There are obviously pros and cons to that scenario...

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    I would rather get the best haul of prospects if dealing Ells....But If they could somehow make a deal for a top young pitcher that included Ells and more prospects I would go for that as well. It   would have to be a Gio Gonzalez type though.

    Nobody thought the 2011 Gio was going to be the 2012 Gio.  It's not easy identifyin the next Gio, but I do think Brett Anderson has the potential.

    This lineup/pitching has as much, if not more potential talent than a lot of clubs out there, including 2 that went to the playoffs this year. O's and A's...

    Assuming we keep Papi, Ross, and add a decent 1Bman and Hunter, yes we should be slightly better than the O's on offense, and better than the A's offense on paper (although the A's offensive numbers are hurt by their park), I still think just adding  Peavy to a rotation that had an ERA over 5 this year is not nearly enough to be serious contenders for a ring.

    Although i would never say were a WS contender, I do believe that they will put a very competitive team on the field next year that has the talent and could surprise some people.

    My point is, if we can't be serious WS contenders in 2013, we should make moves to better position ourselves to be stronger WS contenders in 2014 and beyond, hence the need to deal Ellsbury before 2013 begins.

    I think we can surprise some people in 2013 by doing better than expected without Ellsbury, but with some other key acquisitions that improve our team not just for 2013, but beyond as well.

     

     

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from RedsoxProspects. Show RedsoxProspects's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Moon, I don't want to sound too negative on the trade ellsbury option, as it does have a lot of merit, but they better get some good talent in return if they do and I would think ( as I believe you do as well ) that it should be long term talent and not a 1 year rental.

    And JoeB makes a good point that it is not such a bad situation to keep him also. We may get excellent value also if we keep him.

    Call me crazy but even with Boras as his agent the Redsox did say they want to explore a contract extention. These are the same people ( except for Theo ) who offered Crawford a whole lot of money just a couple years ago. It could happen! 

    It sems that anything is possible now. We are desparate for top, controllable talent worthy of building a team around going forward.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    It's not just not a bad thing, we are in almost perfect position.

    1-We have a player looking for contract year, and I'm a huge fan of contract years.

    There are many players that do worse in contract years, but assuming you are right, maybe there are GMs out there that believe like you and will  value Ellsbury higher due to the hope that he will have a great year.

    I also think that even if Ellsbury has a better year than 2011, and we add some players this winter, it still won't be enough to seriously compete, so what did we end up gaining for 2014 and beyond? Just a darft pick and maybe a lower original pick because we placed a little higher by winning 85 games not 75-80.

    2-We have a player exactly one year away from starting in CF.

    He may be ready now, He may not be ready until 2015, but your point is well taken.

    3-We make a qualifying off and pick up a #1.

    Actually it would be a sandwich pick which makes it more like a high 2nd round choice not a #1.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    Moon, I don't want to sound too negative on the trade ellsbury option, as it does have a lot of merit, but they better get some good talent in return if they do and I would think ( as I believe you do as well ) that it should be long term talent and not a 1 year rental.

    Agree: I am not for trading him for a 1 year rental. I do think we will get a good return. The draft choice attached is worth a nice prospect by itself. There are several teams looking to seriously compete in 2013 that would love to have Ellsbury and the draft pick.

    And JoeB makes a good point that it is not such a bad situation to keep him also. We may get excellent value also if we keep him.

    Yes, but much of the value is placed solely in the 2013 season: a season that is all but lost as I see it.

    Call me crazy but even with Boras as his agent the Redsox did say they want to explore a contract extention. These are the same people ( except for Theo ) who offered Crawford a whole lot of money just a couple years ago. It could happen! 

    1) I do not want it to happen as it would have to be at a very very high contract cost.

    2) Why give an extension before we see if he can repeat 2011 or not?

    It sems that anything is possible now. We are desparate for top, controllable talent worthy of building a team around going forward.

    Yes, but we should not gauge the proposed Ellsbury deal on a criteria that insists on the deal being a huge difference maker going forward. If the deal helps us significantly improve in 2014 and beyond, then it should be seriously considered.

    Most likely, the deal would be to a contender for 2-3 decent propsects. Those prospects should be weighed against the potential value of the supplemental sandwich draft choice lost that would not likely help us intil 2017 or later, if at all. Combine this idea with my idea of trading away almost all our players who will be FAs in 2014 or 2015 (unless we extend them) for prospects or decent players with longer team control, we will be much better placed to make a key trade or two using our huge stockpile of farm talent to get the bigger difference maker(s) that an Ellsbury alone trade will net us.

    Nobody is going to trade us a decent ML starting pitcher under team control for more than just 2013 for Ellsbury alone. Maybe if we involve a 3rd team and add some prospects or other guys like Aviles, Breslow, Aceves, or one of our catchers, we can find a difference maker with 3+ years of control, but it is more likely we'd trade Jacoby for prospects or for a couple of ML guys like Sergio Romo and Hector Sanchez.

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    There are many players that do worse in contract years, but assuming you are right, maybe there are GMs out there that believe like you and will  value Ellsbury higher due to the hope that he will have a great year.

    I also think that even if Ellsbury has a better year than 2011, and we add some players this winter, it still won't be enough to seriously compete, so what did we end up gaining for 2014 and beyond? Just a darft pick and maybe a lower original pick because we placed a little higher by winning 85 games not 75-80.

    I'm not a believer that we cannot compete.  I think with a regular manager, we'd have won about 79 games (4-5 games lost to tactical decisions, an almost impossible to calculate number of games lost to being the Drama Queen distractions)..  The return from injuries should cover another 5 games.  A return to trend should cover another 5 games or so.

    We should be plus games at 2nd (+1), 3rd (+2), LF (+2), CF (+3), and DH (+1).  We should be plus games with Lester (+3), Buchholz (+2), Doubront (+1), Lackey (over Bard, et al) (+2), closer (+3).

    This assumes re-signing Papi and Ross, and an adequate/good LFer.  You'll notice 4 SPs, so that is a big question mark.  If we can land an ace, it wouldn't take too much to improve to 90+ wins pretty quickly, thought surely they have some work to do.

     

    3-We make a qualifying off and pick up a #1.

    Actually it would be a sandwich pick which makes it more like a high 2nd round choice not a #1.

    Posted Nov. 25, 2011 3:37 pm by Jim Callis
    Filed under: Draft Dope

    The Type A/Type B free-agent compensation system will be eliminated under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement. In the final offseason of the old system, MLB and the MLB Players Association made some modifications.

    The compensation for Type A free agents remains the same: A first-round pick from the signing team, as well as a supplemental first-round choice.

    ???

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    In response to Skadude22's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Anderson is not the guy to target.  For one, I think trading Ellsbury would be done for top prospects, not for an impact player. Two, if you get back Anderson, do you honestly think the team as constructed (minus Ellsbury), is only one pitcher away from contending? You don't trade for impact players if you aren't close to competing, especially pitchers that only play once every 5 games.  You trade Ellsbury for the best prospect package possible, or you don't trade him. 

     

    The idea is to load up on young talent.  It increases the likelihood that you have prospects pan out, and it makes it more likely that you will have an influx of talent from the farm for the coming years.  This creates extreme payroll flexibility (with the whole 6 years of control rule) and allows you the freedom to add that one piece when the time is right.  This plan is predicated on the idea that you put a great deal of emphasis on scouting, so the prospects you get are guys that you are confident will develop and be successful.

    [/QUOTE]


    Teams that operate this way typically do so more for budgetary reasons as opposed to actual strategy.

     

    All the years spent rebuilding represent lost revenue.  Very doubtful the Sox spend 2013 trying to rebuild the attendance numbers in Portland and Pawtucket and hope it translates to Fenway down the road...

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury - The Market

    The compensation for Type A free agents remains the same: A first-round pick from the signing team, as well as a supplemental first-round choice.

    ???

    The team signing him loses a pick, but we don't get it. Nobody does. We just get the supp. pick.

     

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