Re: Ellsbury - The Market
posted at 10/15/2012 10:52 PM EDT
In response to TrotterNixon's comment:
I do not think Ellsbury wants to play on the Red Sox,
Ya think...........................the guy hasn't played much for the Red Sox in the last three years.
In the big picture if the return in a trade doesn't net us a player that can be part of the nucleaus in 2014 and beyond then there's really no reason to trade him. Which then allows Cherington a full season to look for a replacement all the while spending this off season in search of a legit middle of the order hitter...
In reality, Ellsbury represents a high draft pick and one season for someone who needs an old veteran CF'er. Your myopia is in thinking that trading Ellsbury is it. In fact, trading Ellsbury would and should be part of a package of farm talent that the Red Sox, after the trade, have no need for. Thus, if the Red Sox trade for the only starter worth trading for, Felix, something I don't advocate, it would mean that the Red Sox can let the Mariners have Barnes and Webster and De Pipedram et al from the farm pitching prospect pool but Bogearts Brentz and Bradley, Jr., would be off the table. and the Mariners would get Ellspuff for one season and the high draft compesnation they will get if they get the same loser the Red Sox have had to put up with. I don't see the Mariners doing it, which is a good thing for the Red Sox because Felix has high miles and isn't going to be any difference maker pitching every 5 days for the Red Sox. If the Red Sox traded for J. Upton, that means Brentz and even Bogaerts would be part of a pool of players from the farm that would not include Barnes and Bradley, Jr..
Trading Ellsbury is obvious for the following reasons:
1. Why pay 10 million dollars for a player who is no difference maker (Every season, last season and certainly this season proved it) and will not be part of the Red Sox future, when one year patches and platoon can be signed for much cheaper, as Bradley, Jr., not Ellsbury, is the future CF'er for the Red Sox
2. Red Sox fan support doesn't require Ellsbury to fill up the seats or watch on the media outlets
3. Using Ellsbury and his draft pick as part of a trade package is far better than paying him 10 million to FA for the draft compensation. As part of a trade package, he's attractive because of the draft compensation and because it allows other contenders to stay away from any long term contract until Ellsbury plays a full season for them, at which time they can cash in or cash out.
It iwll be total incompetence if Cherry panders to the Red Sox fan base and pays 10 million for the last Red Sox season of Ellsbury. He was a bigger embarrassment this year than he was in 2010, and he was absolutely no difference maker in 2011.
The draft pick with Ellsbury hardly justifies the trade if you have to giveup anything. "Hey, we gave up a great prospect/player, but we got one year of this guy and maybe, if we drat right, we get a good prospect/player back and break even."
Now that the draft pick compensation has been reduced to a sandwich pick, it is nowhere near as valuable as before, when late first rounders were at stake. If teams want a sandwich pick, there will be cheaper Type A's to trade for and acquire one. The pick is not unique to Ellsbury.
Ellsbury's appeal is to a team that wants to win now. The problem is, there will be nearly a dozen other decent CF's also available this offseason. Why pay heavily for ellsbury when you can simply sign Pagan or settle for the significantly cheaper Peter Bourjos? You may not get your draft pick, but you probably get to keep the prospect it would cost to get Ellsbury, which is definitely favorable...