Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Immortal9. Show Immortal9's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I would not trade Ellsbury.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Red Sox do not need Ellsbury for 2012 and beyond, anymore than they needed to pay 142M for Crawford. Red Sox need:

    A. Top tier Starting pitching (Ellsbury will not net that)

    B. Talented young RH OF (Ellsbury will net that)

    C. 2nd tier pitching staff depth (Ellsbury will net that)

    Pretty obvious that the trade to make is an NL trade for Hanley or Upton, now that Kemp has his parking space reserved. Ellsbury plus Lowrie plus blocked prospects is the trade to make this winter. Clear as a bell.

    Hanley may do alright in the OF, but I think he's better at 3B. That means trading Youk for lesser value.

    I'm not sure why AZ would trade 4 years of control on Upton for 2 of "Jake". Upton is still owed about $45M/4 and Jacoby will probably get about $19-25M total the next 2 years, but I don't see that as being reason enough to trade 4 for 2.

    I like Upton a lot. I'd trade Jacoby for him straight up, but I don't see it happening. He's much younger than Ellsbury and already has 2 good seasons under his belt. He started in the majors about 4 years before Ellsbury (by age), and they both have very similar OBPs. This is certainly more realistic than the Jake for Kemp fantasy.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from GoUconn13. Show GoUconn13's posts

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    I would not want anyone from Seattle except Felix!!!

    Ellsbury is a far better players than any Seattle players you all mentioned above!!!

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]2010 doesn't count for Ellsbury. Sure it does. Every full season counts. Part of player value is average games played. In 2011 he was the best all-around performer on the team. He is the reigning best performer, on the empirical record. Long list of performers who had one career year way out of line with averages. I would like to see his numbers in the 3 spot, where the true best performer was situated. A player who plays with injuries before FA contract years, vs one who does not. And if reigning best performer means anything, it carries with it the face of a loser. Ellsbury was and is not the answer to improving the Red Sox, particularly since InEpstein signed Crawford.  Two-thirds of an outfield as "adequate," if even that holds, is not sufficient, especially since Crawford, the other third, has yet to show that he has the goods in Boston. Anyone ready for an outfield of Crawford, Kalish, Reddick? Boston needs Ellsbury in the outfield now. He will probably be traded, sooner or later . You ignore Crawford's career averaegs and what Ellsbury nets in trade. Red Sox do not need Ellsbury for 2012 and beyond, anymore than they needed to pay 142M for Crawford. Red Sox need: A. Top tier Starting pitching (Ellsbury will not net that) B. Talented young RH OF (Ellsbury will net that) C. 2nd tier pitching staff depth (Ellsbury will net that) Pretty obvious that the trade to make is an NL trade for Hanley or Upton, now that Kemp has his parking space reserved. Ellsbury plus Lowrie plus blocked prospects is the trade to make this winter. Clear as a bell.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
    Ellsbury was one of the few Sox players who emerged from the season with the face of a winner. Lots of superior players have and do perform on teams that lose and lose big. That does not affect their value as individuals. 
    I do not ignore Crawford's career averages. I await his Boston averages.
    Right, there is a long list of performers with anomalous seasons. Maybe 2010 will turn out to have been one for Ellsbury. Maybe. At the moment he looks like a very valuable performer. His value in a trade remains to be determined, given all the variables I mentioned in a previous post. The Sox and the other team(s) will make that assessment.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

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    Ellsbury plus for Kemp offer was no fantasy, even though it most surely was never made.

    Arizona market is a different market. Ellsbury plus blocked prospects might net Upton, this winter. Most certainly would net Hanley.

    Ellsbury trade market value is an opinion that changes from year to year. Assessment has been as of this winter.  
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : I agree that the Sox need to fix the pitching, that is why an Ellsbury trade makes sense if it is to fix the pitching.  The Sox offense does not live and die with Ellsbury, so I don't think the offense takes too big a hit.  If they get a CF like Gutierrez back, the defense is still there. Yes, the offense is better with Ellsbury than without, but will the team be better with more pitching depth, quality young pitchers? That is the deal that should be made if it can be.  As for Ellsbury being the best all-around player on the team, that is an opinion, not fact.  You have the right to that opinion, and based on last year have stats to back it up.  Right now I would say he is the third best player behind Gonzalez and Pedroia.  But, that is also just an opinion.
    Posted by fizsh[/QUOTE]
    The Sox offense may not "live and die" with Ellsbury, but he infuses a lot of oxygen into it. A lot. Gutierrez would suck quite a bit of that out. Who leads off for Boston?
    "Quality" young pitchers with short careers in other venues or possessed merely of "potential" may or may not perform in Fenway. A pitcher with an established pedigree might be another question.
    Pedroia is an outstanding player, but unless 2011 was a major fluke for Ellsbury he is not at the moment quite on that level. Gonzalez is an outstanding player, but he was signed in part to hit many more homers than he did. People talk about a regression for Ellsbury. Shouldn't, then, a BA regression be in order for Gonzalez? He plays a less demanding position as well.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]The idea of trading Jacoby makes a lot of sense, if we are able to upgrade our pitching staff considerably. The odds are very slight that jacoby will be hre after 2013. I wouldn't trade him just for the sake of getting rid of him, but his value is very high right now. Maybe we can pry a couple pitchers from the Braves of Giants.
    Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
    What pitchers with a realistic chance of being obtained do you have in mind?
    Who plays centerfield for Boston? Who leads off?
    Would you be satisfied with Crawfor/Kalish/Reddick/McDonald? It seems to be coming down to that arrangement. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

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    Arizona market is a different market. Ellsbury plus blocked prospects might net Upton, this winter. Most certainly would net Hanley.

    The only blocked positions are 1B and 2B...we have little there of worth (in prospects). Who did you have in mind? be specific.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Plastics017. Show Plastics017's posts

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    Do not ever get rid of Ellsbury for any reason.  He is young, and awesome.  Build the team around him!
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Ellbury for Kemp
    Ellsbury for Hanley
    Ellsbury for anyone that can pick up a bat....

    I would actually be more open to the idea of trading for Ellsbury if it was for something we need.......like pitching.  Sure a RH hitting OF would be nice, but on one of the most potent offensive teams in the league it is a LUXURY when the pitching has struggled.

    I think the new management gets it.  Don't expect Ellsbury gone this winter....I wouldn't be surprised to see him shopped next year, especially if Kalish/Reddick have a good 2011 or a Brentz type looks MLB ready for 2013
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from parhunter1. Show parhunter1's posts

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    Seems like a legitimate trade proposal.  If the Mariners offered it, I think that Ben would be smart to take it.  It also seems to me that Ellsbury's offensive numbers would take a hit in Seattle, especially the power numbers, this reducing his contract demands upon his free agency.  Yes, the offense would take a hit, but if Crawford returned to form, then the offense would still be one of the best in all of baseball.  And the starting pitching would have upgraded their depth quite a bit.

    What I would then like to see is a trade of Beckett for a power hitting RHed RFer and a top-notch closer.  You'd have a rotation of Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Aceves (or Doubront) and Pineda, with a couple of really good arms in development, along with said closer, Jenks, Melancon, Morales, Doubront (or Aceves), Albers, Bowden, Tazawa and Hill possibly in July (if he'll take a minor league contract).  The bonus is that you get rid of the biggest fat head on the team and the RFer would make up in offense what was lost in trading Ellsbury. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hankwilliams. Show hankwilliams's posts

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    Mooslob, already been specific. Lowrie was part of Hanley offer, as well as blocked OF farm prospect and one other blocked prospect. There is at least one blocked farm prospect at SS, OF if trade was done.
     
    You are the one who is never specific. I am always specific, but your brain is so fried from pig farm days that you need to be reminded over and over.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]Mooslob, already been specific. Lowrie was part of Hanley offer, as well as blocked OF farm prospect and one other blocked prospect. There is at least one blocked farm prospect at SS, OF if trade was done.   You are the one who is never specific. I am always specific, but your brain is so fried from pig farm days that you need to be reminded over and over.
    Posted by hankwilliams[/QUOTE]
    Who is "you'?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from MichFan. Show MichFan's posts

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    I flat out would not trade Ellsbury....
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

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    Do they need Ichiro and Ellsbury?  Don't they serve the same purpose in line up.  Do they need $30 million tied up in CF and RF?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from S5. Show S5's posts

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    Let's see... what do second-tier teams do?  They trade their proven stars at the height of their performance (because their value is high) for someone whom they hope will make their team better.  Trade a known quantity for a "hope". That sounds like a recipe to me - a recipe for becoming a second-tier team. 

    Here's a thought;  What if last year WASN'T his best year?  What if he has two more years just as good as last year?

    Ya know what you've got.  Hold onto him for at least one more year, then see what happens. 
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtyWaterLover. Show DirtyWaterLover's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]Let's see... what do second-tier teams do?  They trade their proven stars at the height of their performance (because their value is high) for someone whom they hope will make their team better.  Trade a known quantity for a "hope". That sounds like a recipe to me - a recipe for becoming a second-tier team.  Here's a thought;  What if last year WASN'T his best year?  What if he has two more years just as good as last year? Ya know what you've got.  Hold onto him for at least one more year, then see what happens. 
    Posted by S5[/QUOTE]

    The Sox have holes in the rotation.  They don't have any depth in the minors.  I think they need to trade for a front line starting pitcher.  I don't think they can pick up a good quality starter by trading minor leaguers because they don;t have the depth - they traded everyone away to get gonzo.

    There are only 3 tradeable players - Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury.  I think they could get a lot for Pedroia but how can you trade the heart and soul of the team?  I think Youk has some trade value, but he's a top notch 3rd baseman and is important to the line up.  And Youk probably isn't enough by himself to get the quality of pitcher the sox need.

    Ellsbury had a great year last year and I don't want to see him traded.  But, he plays the role that they got Crawford to play.  If they had known what Ells was going to do, they don't get crawford.  But since they got crawford and his salary is too high to trade, then they almost have to trade ellsbury.

    The made a mistake last year getting Crawford - not because Crawford didn't produce but because Ellsbury out performed expectations.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from georom4. Show georom4's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    let's not trade our best player...
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from ctredsoxfanhugh. Show ctredsoxfanhugh's posts

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    [QUOTE]let's not trade our best player...
    Posted by georom4[/QUOTE]

    what he said

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from DirtDawgSox. Show DirtDawgSox's posts

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    In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?:
    [QUOTE]I flat out would not trade Ellsbury....
    Posted by MichFan[/QUOTE]
    In my opinion, this is an idiotic idea...trading Ellsbury. How can you people watch all the Sox games year after year and suggest something as bone-headed as this?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

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    [QUOTE]I'd think the Mariners are unlikely to give up 5 years of Pineda, especially after a great start to his first year, for 2 years of Ellsbury. 
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Agreed, an automatic deal breaker....not to mention it's 2 years of near-open market cost Ellsbury.

    As for the "local guy" issue....I would instantly fire any GM that assigned any significant value to that.  Not to mention the fact that Ellsbury is from a different state from Washington!
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from expitch. Show expitch's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : The Sox have holes in the rotation.  They don't have any depth in the minors.  I think they need to trade for a front line starting pitcher.  I don't think they can pick up a good quality starter by trading minor leaguers because they don;t have the depth - they traded everyone away to get gonzo. There are only 3 tradeable players - Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury.  I think they could get a lot for Pedroia but how can you trade the heart and soul of the team?  I think Youk has some trade value, but he's a top notch 3rd baseman and is important to the line up.  And Youk probably isn't enough by himself to get the quality of pitcher the sox need. Ellsbury had a great year last year and I don't want to see him traded.  But, he plays the role that they got Crawford to play.  If they had known what Ells was going to do, they don't get crawford.  But since they got crawford and his salary is too high to trade, then they almost have to trade ellsbury. The made a mistake last year getting Crawford - not because Crawford didn't produce but because Ellsbury out performed expectations.
    Posted by DirtyWaterLover[/QUOTE]

    If one assumes that Ellsbury will skip town after 2013, the question becomes when and for whom.  I say not now unless it's a WHOM. Even then I might balk.
    Gotta have names.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts? : There are some reasons to trade Ellsbury. 1) He is only signed for 2 more years, and will hit free agency , unlike Lester and Pedroia, who have signed extensions.  Ellsbury is very unlikely to sign an extension; its not the Scott Boras Way. 2) His value is very unlikely to ever be higher. 3) The Sox have OF depth at his positon, but are very thin in others (PITCHING!!!) that he could be dealt for. 4) If the Sox actually want a good pitcher, they are not going to get one for a package of Lars Anderson and Jed Lowrie.  Quality has to be invoved. Also, he is 28, not 23.  28 is not really baseball youth. THere are also good reasons to keep Ellsbury and then let him walk.  It's very possible his next two years will be the best two he has left (health permitting).  Then let him walk and let someone else overpay for his decline....
    Posted by notin[/QUOTE]

    Notin - I agree with all your points but (and I realise I'm preaching to the choir here) re nbr 2 the time for another team to trade for Ellsbury was last winter.  If his value today is, say, 12 quatlubes, then last winter it was 6 quatlubes at best.  Unless there is a great fit available - and as we have no other CF options, there isn't - let's keep riding our winning horse rather than just swapping 6 of this for a half dozen of that.

    STGameTrisk.jpg
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    Further, I think the Mariners would instantly turn down an offer of Ellsbury straight up for Pineda...they would demand another prospect or two in addition to Ellsbury if they would do it at all.

    But they wouldn't....as great as Ellsbury is/is becoming....the Mariners are not going anywhere in '12/13 and Ellsbury will be going to the highest bidder after '13.  Whereas Pineda could well become a superstar in '12 or '13....plus 3 more years of team control.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from dgalehouse. Show dgalehouse's posts

    Re: Ellsbury Trade Idea - Thoughts?

    I think we are getting a little overly concerned that somebody might leave as a free agent after two more years.  A lot of things can happen in two years.    Why not try to focus on putting together a team that can win in 2012?  I understand the Sox' salary problems , but if this club drops to fourth or fifth place , there will be some very disgruntled fans.  Melancon is no Papelbon , and mediocrities like Shoppach and Punto are not going to be much help.  Trading Ellsbury would be a major gamble. I think we are getting a little carried away with some of these trade scenarios.
     

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