Re: Ellsbury vs Granderson
posted at 11/25/2013 12:44 PM EST
In response to S5's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
Ellsbury easy cuz he is a perfect lead off guy.
While a .350 OBP is very good, it is not "perfect" for a leadoff hitter.
Ellsbury had the 9th best OPS on the Red Sox last year (players with 230+ PAs).
7th best OPS out of all Sox players with 470+ PAs.
I don't pay $18M+ x 5+ years for that.
We will miss him, but for $18M, we can add two decent players at high need areas. The added draft pick is the gravy for the future.
With all due respect, is it possible that in being a stats guy you ignore the eyeball test?
I have eyes. I am getting tired of posters assuming that just because somebody uses stats to support their position, likes numbers, and likes metrics, they somehow can not understand the human element or intangibles not measured by data.
I know Ellsbury brings a lot more to the table than OPS. He makes hitting easier for the guys up after him when he is at 1B. His SBs and great SB% is sometimes worth more than just turning a single into a dbl.
He is worth much more than a .350 OBP and .780 OPS kind of player. I get that.
My eyes tell me that Ellsbury makes the offense go. When he gets on base good things happen. I know at one point you did some research on how many singles or BB's get turned into doubles with a SB and that made his numbers look better. Something that can't be quantified is that is being on base also often times causes a realignment of the IF's to give Victorino and Pedey a hole on the right side to hit through - which they're both very adept at.
Agreed, but 1Bmen hold almost all runners when on 1B. It's more about the pitcher being distracted.
And of course there's the fact that Ellsbury's just being on base gets the hitters behind him more FB's to hit along with more "mistake pitches".
Very true, but I also think some hitters are distracted by a baserunner taking off. They feel they have to "protect" him.
I certainly wouldn't question his numbers - they are what they are - but IMO they don't tell the whole story of how valuable he is to the offense.
Like I said, we will miss him, but with only about $30M to spend and 3-4 big holes to fill, I can't see spending about 2/3rds of that budget on 1 guy, especially a guy who was just the 7th best OPS guy. As much as SBs and defense in CF add to Jacoby's value, OPS is a very important piece to a player's overall value, and he just is not high enough for me to fork over $100M/6 or more.
I certainly want him back.
I certainly know our team will suffer his loss.
I'm not softy.
I am looking at what else we can get for $100M plus the value of the draft pick and how much we have to suffer at other high need areas if we pay Ellsbury to play here.