Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton
posted at 12/27/2012 11:24 PM EST
In response to hill55's comment:
Given the years of team control, the Diamondbacks would be reasonable in asking for Bogaerts, Barnes and Jacobs in a trade of Justin Upton.
I agree hill55, the Diamondbacks would be reasonable to ask for those players. However, not all 1-2 prospects are equal. In this case, Kelley was ranked 31 by BA and Rizzo 75. In comparison, I expect Bogaerts to be ranked about 10 and Barnes to be in the 40-50 range. Personally, I have Bogearts 8th and Barnes 35th. Going by just the likely BA rankings, I would guess that Bogaerts and Barnes have 50% more value then Kelly and Rizzo did combined. I personally value Bogaerts alone more then Rizzo and Kelley combined.
Secondly is the WAR values. Career wise according to FG, the difference is as you stated. However, BR's WAR values likes Upton less. And if you look at 1, 2 or 3 year numbers in either WAR system, Upton comes out more like betwen 25-50% less valuable then AGon.
Then there are the intangibles like attitude and park factors.
Finally, although its true that AGon was under control for only 1 year, it was at 6 million vs. Upton at around 13 million. As well as the extreme likelyhood that Agon was going to sign with Boston anyway, which was a huge factor in the deal and its value.
The only advantages Upton has is with age and length. For me, not enough to offset the AGon advantages.
Personally, I am against trading for Upton on many fronts. It would go against everything the Sox have done this off season. In particular from an attitude perspective. But I would definately be against this Bogaerts-Barnes-Jacobs proposal from a simple value stand point. Somewhat close, but a bad deal for the Red Sox.