ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from levasseujj. Show levasseujj's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Bowdens idea is stupid.  Suck up a couple of years of mediocrity and let the kids that they feel are real life pieces to the puzzle develop (Boegarts, Bradley, Barnes).  Fill in with mercenaries like Drew and Victorino until they are ready (Boegarts will be playing short for the sox by the trade deadline).  I would hold fast on Napoli and force him down to a 2 year protected deal with a 3rd year option.  There is on way they are going after Laroche....he costs a 2nd round pick and more importantly, a huge chunk of draft pick $$ that would be lost.  If the Napoli things falls thru I would expect a trade for someone to platoon with Gomez at first.  Someone mentioned Hosmer....not going to happen unless the sox give up one of the top 3 prospects or Lester/Bucholz. 

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from levasseujj. Show levasseujj's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to bruinsGENIUS' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    LAROCHE!

    [/QUOTE]


    not gonna happen....draft pick and draft pick $ compensation required for Laroche, Bourn, and Lohse.  None of those guys are worth giving up a 3yr plus contract AND a draft pick as well as limit the ability to sign all of the draft picks.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from levasseujj. Show levasseujj's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to Mt200's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    only trade Bogaerts in a deal for Stanton. Upton is extremely overrated.

     

    Upton career .255 with RISP is god AWFUL. He'll be another JD Drew in Boston. Complimtary piece, not a main piece. Stay away.

    [/QUOTE]
    agree completely. The only deal that Boegarts is included in would be for Stanton, provided the sox could negotiate a long term contract as part of the deal.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to donrd4's comment:

    They can ask for whatever....Istill think ...NOT !!! And about this WAR CRAP.....Value... you say valule ??? Any way you can twist things to make it look like it's all good. You can only wait til  season is over to judge any player on your stupid value or WAR CRAP ! What might be great one year can be a bust the next. I for one do not believe in paper work to value a player.



    I'm interested in your opinion. How do you assess a player's value? How do you determine "What might be great one year can be a bust the next"?

     

    [/QUOTE]


    OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not. You reference the past couple years and see if thre is a trend. Look at similar players at that age and see how they faired as they progressed. I mean you don't have to attach a nonsensical number to determine if a player is good or not. You are probably in the Jim Rice is not a HOFer camp.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Upton is the best impact player that is obviously available.

     
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  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not. You reference the past couple years and see if thre is a trend. Look at similar players at that age and see how they faired as they progressed. I mean you don't have to attach a nonsensical number to determine if a player is good or not. You are probably in the Jim Rice is not a HOFer camp.


    Is Jacoby Ellsbury's career OPS+ of 106 (93 before 2011 and 83 since) the best way to determine his worth? Ellsbury's career OPS of .791 (.749 before 2011 and .682 since)?

    Justin Upton has a career OPS+ of 117 and a career OPS of .832.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not. You reference the past couple years and see if thre is a trend. Look at similar players at that age and see how they faired as they progressed. I mean you don't have to attach a nonsensical number to determine if a player is good or not. You are probably in the Jim Rice is not a HOFer camp.



    Is Jacoby Ellsbury's career OPS+ of 106 (93 before 2011 and 83 since) the best way to determine his worth? Ellsbury's career OPS of .791 (.749 before 2011 and .682 since)?

     

    Justin Upton has a career OPS+ of 117 and a career OPS of .832.

    [/QUOTE]

    Not sure why you continue to compare Upton and Ellsbury's? Both are pretty good ball players with vastly different games. 

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:

    OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not. You reference the past couple years and see if thre is a trend. Look at similar players at that age and see how they faired as they progressed. I mean you don't have to attach a nonsensical number to determine if a player is good or not. You are probably in the Jim Rice is not a HOFer camp.



    Is Jacoby Ellsbury's career OPS+ of 106 (93 before 2011 and 83 since) the best way to determine his worth? Ellsbury's career OPS of .791 (.749 before 2011 and .682 since)?

     

    Justin Upton has a career OPS+ of 117 and a career OPS of .832.

    [/QUOTE]


    No body on this board has claimed tgat Ellsbury is the next Manny Rameriz like Softy did with Upton. Lets be honest there are tons of guys that can hit 275 from the right side and give you 17 home runs. Look at Cody Ross. What you have in Ellsbury is harder to find.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Argue, argue, argue. Debate. disagree. What else is there to do say the trolls?

    [/QUOTE]


    Wow banter on a baseball forum...

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Not sure why you continue to compare Upton and Ellsbury's? Both are pretty good ball players with vastly different games. 

    That's why I used Jacoby Ellsbury as a familiar point of reference in assessing the relative value (not skills) of Justin Upton.   I brought Ellsbury back into the discussion when a poster contended that "OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not." I don't think OPS and OPS+ accurately measure the overall value of Ellsbury.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from hill55. Show hill55's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to EdithBRTN's comment:

    Argue, argue, argue. Debate. disagree. What else is there to do say the trolls?


    Does the forum discourage debates?

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    I do think OPS and OPS+ are good measures of hitting, but it does leave our other aspects of offense like baserunning, moving runners over, etc...

    WAR does help add some other aspects of a player's skillset, but I think sometimes the fielding portion is out of proportion.

    I will say that I'd much rather have Upton over Ellsbury even if they both were under team control for 3 years at the same cost. 

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to hill55's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    Not sure why you continue to compare Upton and Ellsbury's? Both are pretty good ball players with vastly different games. 

     

    That's why I used Jacoby Ellsbury as a familiar point of reference in assessing the relative value (not skills) of Justin Upton.   I brought Ellsbury back into the discussion when a poster contended that "OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not." I don't think OPS and OPS+ accurately measure the overall value of Ellsbury.

    [/QUOTE]

    As I know you're aware hitting statistics whether you use the old school BA-HR-RBI or the new age OPS are weighted differently based on where you hit in the lineup...It's not hard to arrive at the conclusion that a player with a higher OBP has a greater plate disipline than one who is lower...lost in the data however is how the other teams pitch to each hitter given the game circumstances. Often dictated by the risk...

    Ellsbury is prototypical leadoff hitter that plays center field. Upton's a corner outfielder who profiles as a #5 hitter on a good team...If we judge them based on the value of thier positions using defensive metrics? Ellsbury is clearly the better player of the two...

    Offensively if we leave base stealing out of the equasion, they're really apples and oranges...What I will contend is that Ellsbury is a far better leadoff hitter, than Upton is as a 3 or 4 hole hitter, based on league averages, when compared to thier respective contemporaties. However if you move Upton into the 5 hole he then becomes equal too or greater than Ellsbury when you look at the gold standards top 5 OPS hitting teams based on the batting order...

    Last season in ML the average production from each postion in the lineup...

    1# 99 R 13 HR 58 RBI while hitting 261-323-392-715 (750 OPS is the gold standard)

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/109/sort/OPS/order/true

    #3 95 R 26 HR 95 RBI while hitting 274-350-463-813 (900 OPS is the gold standard)

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/111/sort/OPS/order/true

    #5 80 R 23 HR 90 RBI while hitting 259-322-436-758 (850 OPS is the gold standard)

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/113/sort/OPS/order/true

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Not sure why you continue to compare Upton and Ellsbury's? Both are pretty good ball players with vastly different games. 

     

    That's why I used Jacoby Ellsbury as a familiar point of reference in assessing the relative value (not skills) of Justin Upton.   I brought Ellsbury back into the discussion when a poster contended that "OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not." I don't think OPS and OPS+ accurately measure the overall value of Ellsbury.

    [/QUOTE]

    Perhaps the poster meant to say "OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a player is a good batter or not."  I agree with that.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from SonicsMonksLyresVicars. Show SonicsMonksLyresVicars's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I will say that I'd much rather have Upton over Ellsbury even if they both were under team control for 3 years at the same cost. 

    [/QUOTE]

    Not sure I'd agree with MUCH rather.  Ellsbury's 2011 was better than Upton's best season (also 2011) and Ellsbury's development through his 3 full seasons was significant.  However "unlucky" Ells' 2010 and 2012 injuries were, they did happen and he turns 30 in September.

    I think Upton is a safer bet over the next 3 years but Ellsbury might have a higher ceiling.  Ells 2013 is going to be a fascinating story.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to SonicsMonksLyresVicars's comment:
    [QUOTE]Not sure why you continue to compare Upton and Ellsbury's? Both are pretty good ball players with vastly different games. 

     

    That's why I used Jacoby Ellsbury as a familiar point of reference in assessing the relative value (not skills) of Justin Upton.   I brought Ellsbury back into the discussion when a poster contended that "OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a batter is a good player or not." I don't think OPS and OPS+ accurately measure the overall value of Ellsbury.

    [/QUOTE]

    Perhaps the poster meant to say "OPS and OPS+ are simply the best way to determine if a player is a good batter or not."  I agree with that.

    [/QUOTE]


    My issue with OPS as a measure of a players ability to hit is that IMHO slugging pct is weighted to heavily.

    Example;

    Player 1 .204 .333 .468 .800 (Ranked #30 in OPS)

    Player 2 .290 .345 .449 .797 (Ranked #31 IN OPS)

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/league/al/sort/OPS/order/true

    Cleary player two is the better hitter...if batting average and OBP is what determines a better hitter...Player 1 simply hits for more power and thus his 20 point advantage in slugging moves him higher on the list....

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Offensively if we leave base stealing out of the equasion, they're really apples and oranges...What I will contend is that Ellsbury is a far better leadoff hitter, than Upton is as a 3 or 4 hole hitter, based on league averages, when compared to thier respective contemporaties. However if you move Upton into the 5 hole he then becomes equal too or greater than Ellsbury when you look at the gold standards top 5 OPS hitting teams based on the batting order...

    Ellsbury's base stealing is now an unknown value.

    Ellsbury's playing time is the wildcard.

    Ellsbury's return to 2011 form is an unknown.

    Ellsbury will walk after 2013. We may get a draft pick when he does.

    Upton is more of a known value.

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Upton turns 26 next year as Ellsbury turns 30.

    Upton has 3 years of team control at a reasonable cost.

     

    It is apples to oranges, but one is  a shiny crispy apple, and the other is a shriveled dried-up orange.

     

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Offensively if we leave base stealing out of the equasion, they're really apples and oranges...What I will contend is that Ellsbury is a far better leadoff hitter, than Upton is as a 3 or 4 hole hitter, based on league averages, when compared to thier respective contemporaties. However if you move Upton into the 5 hole he then becomes equal too or greater than Ellsbury when you look at the gold standards top 5 OPS hitting teams based on the batting order...

    Ellsbury's base stealing is now an unknown value.

    Ellsbury's playing time is the wildcard.

    Ellsbury's return to 2011 form is an unknown.

    Ellsbury will walk after 2013. We may get a draft pick when he does.

    Upton is more of a known value.

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Upton turns 26 next year as Ellsbury turns 30.

    Upton has 3 years of team control at a reasonable cost.

     

    It is apples to oranges, but one is  a shiny crispy apple, and the other is a shriveled dried-up orange.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    So correct me if I'm wrong but you're not a big fan of Ellsbury.

    Ellsbury's base stealing is now an unknown value.

    Not sure I agree....the risk of his reinjuring his shoulder was at the heart of his decreased attempts after coming back...40 steals is not out of the realm of probability

    Ellsbury's playing time is the wildcard.

    He has certainly had his share on injuries, none however are of the chronic variety and in both case it was hustle plays that did him in...

    Ellsbury's return to 2011 form is an unknown.

    I think he'll fall somewhere in between and fact of the matter is that he should benefit from and entire offseason of conditioning and come to camp ready to swing the bat...

    Ellsbury will walk after 2013. We may get a draft pick when he does.

    We'll certainly get a draft pick if for no other reason then it makes sense to offer him arbitration knowing that he'd likely not get a huge increase and we'd be assured of one more year with no long term commitment.

    Upton is more of a known value.

    Not sure I agree that he's a more known value without understanding your definition of value...If it's realated to health. Then his past value is higher based on games missed but he's not superman either and the types of injuries that befelled Ells could happen to him too. Though he might fair better in a collision with Beltre....

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Fact of the matter is that his three year month by month splits don't support your contensions...(I posted it on this thread a few day back). Unless you consider a swing of 200 points in OPS from his best to worst months over the coarse of a season to be consistent?

    Upton turns 26 next year as Ellsbury turns 30.

    Which is the primary reason I support the concept of signing the guy...I like players that are just entering thier primes with a track record of success. The next three seasons IMHO will define who is for the remainder of his career...which IMHO today is a prototypical # 5 hitter that should be playing leftfield...

    Upton has 3 years of team control at a reasonable cost.

    However he plays for the D-back and not the Sox...So you have to include the cost of the prospects we'd have to trade to aquire him. If he doesn't sign an extension and comes to market in 2017 as a player still in his prime and shows little improvement over the player he is today. Depending on whom we have playing left count me among those that would be just fine signing him....

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Offensively if we leave base stealing out of the equasion, they're really apples and oranges...What I will contend is that Ellsbury is a far better leadoff hitter, than Upton is as a 3 or 4 hole hitter, based on league averages, when compared to thier respective contemporaties. However if you move Upton into the 5 hole he then becomes equal too or greater than Ellsbury when you look at the gold standards top 5 OPS hitting teams based on the batting order...

    Ellsbury's base stealing is now an unknown value.

    Ellsbury's playing time is the wildcard.

    Ellsbury's return to 2011 form is an unknown.

    Ellsbury will walk after 2013. We may get a draft pick when he does.

    Upton is more of a known value.

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Upton turns 26 next year as Ellsbury turns 30.

    Upton has 3 years of team control at a reasonable cost.

     

    It is apples to oranges, but one is  a shiny crispy apple, and the other is a shriveled dried-up orange.

     

    [/QUOTE]

    So correct me if I'm wrong but you're not a big fan of Ellsbury.

    You are wrong. I spent hours and hours arguing with softy about Jacoby's value and potential. I am looking at the Sox future, and with one year left on his contract and the left coast lifestyle beckoning him westward, I see Upton as a vastly superior option than Ellsbury going forward. Just because I like 3 years of Upton over 1 year of Ellsbury does not mean I dislike Jacoby.

    Ellsbury's base stealing is now an unknown value.

    Not sure I agree....the risk of his reinjuring his shoulder was at the heart of his decreased attempts after coming back...40 steals is not out of the realm of probability

    I agree, but as I said, it is still an unknown value, especially if he bats 3rd. He also has made more than his share of baserunning blunders.

    Ellsbury's playing time is the wildcard.

    He has certainly had his share on injuries, none however are of the chronic variety and in both case it was hustle plays that did him in...

    I agree, but he seemed to take more time to heal than usual. I would bet that even though this is a contract year for jacoby, Upton will play more games in 213. Care to wager?

    Ellsbury's return to 2011 form is an unknown.

    I think he'll fall somewhere in between and fact of the matter is that he should benefit from and entire offseason of conditioning and come to camp ready to swing the bat...

    If he falls somewhere between 2011 numbers and his career average, which I think will happen if he is healthy, that would certainly be near the top of a leadoff hitter's expectations, but rather pedestrian if batting 3rd. I see the chance of an upswing from Upton as probable, and so that tilts the equation even more to Justin's side. The guy will be 26.

    Ellsbury will walk after 2013. We may get a draft pick when he does.

    We'll certainly get a draft pick if for no other reason then it makes sense to offer him arbitration knowing that he'd likely not get a huge increase and we'd be assured of one more year with no long term commitment.

    Yes, if he is still here after the 2013 season, we'll get a draft pick.

    Upton is more of a known value.

    Not sure I agree that he's a more known value without understanding your definition of value...If it's realated to health. Then his past value is higher based on games missed but he's not superman either and the types of injuries that befelled Ells could happen to him too. Though he might fair better in a collision with Beltre....

    His OPS has been within a pretty narrow range, especially for someone ages 21-25. I feel more confident projecting Justin's 2013 production than Ellsbury's... that was my meaning here.

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Fact of the matter is that his three year month by month splits don't support your contensions...(I posted it on this thread a few day back). Unless you consider a swing of 200 points in OPS from his best to worst months over the coarse of a season to be consistent?

    I'm talking year-to-year as monthy splits are small sample sizes arbitrarily divided by a calander. Also, if you want to use injuries to explain Jacoby's numbers drop, Justin battled through injuries at various times in his career, and perhaps his numbers were effected by playing through injuries instead of bolting to Arizona to rehab.

    Upton turns 26 next year as Ellsbury turns 30.

    Which is the primary reason I support the concept of signing the guy...I like players that are just entering thier primes with a track record of success. The next three seasons IMHO will define who is for the remainder of his career...which IMHO today is a prototypical # 5 hitter that should be playing leftfield...

    Signing Ellsbury? He will want 5+ years, and a player's prime is usually about 28-31 or 32. Upton is already signed and has more ML experience than most 25-26 year olds. He rated to have 3 seasons better than his career norm. (~.280 25 80  / .360/.475/.835, but more like .850 his last 4 years)

    Upton has 3 years of team control at a reasonable cost.

    However he plays for the D-back and not the Sox...So you have to include the cost of the prospects we'd have to trade to aquire him. If he doesn't sign an extension and comes to market in 2017 as a player still in his prime and shows little improvement over the player he is today. Depending on whom we have playing left count me among those that would be just fine signing him....

    Yes, the cost of prospects will be high, but the contract costs at todays market value will be very low. He'd probably get $60M/3 as a FA.

     Plus, we will get a draft pick if he is not extended

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Fact of the matter is that his three year month by month splits don't support your contensions...(I posted it on this thread a few day back). Unless you consider a swing of 200 points in OPS from his best to worst months over the coarse of a season to be consistent?

    I'm talking year-to-year as monthy splits are small sample sizes arbitrarily divided by a calander. Also, if you want to use injuries to explain Jacoby's numbers drop, Justin battled through injuries at various times in his career, and perhaps his numbers were effected by playing through injuries instead of bolting to Arizona to rehab.

    Moon,

    Not sure that I agree that a three year month by month breakdown where the sample for each month is greater than the 100 bats used by most to determine a hitters "ave" to be relevent as a statisical measure to begin a season, can be defined as small. Regardless of how you split a seasons worth of stats to look for trends...by games, at bats by the month, pre and post All Star etc. Consistency is definded by players that don't have large swings in batting average during a particular season. Uptons swing is close to 100 points over that span. In the end if he is to become the player that many thought he could be given his other worldly tool he needs to lessen the valleys while maintainig the peaks...

    The post I refered too is below;

    Count me among the group that would love to see Justin Upton in a Red Sox uniform. Comparing him to Ellsbury is irrelent in the big picture.

    In arriving at what would be fair value in return for his services. The aquiring team has to elimanate the word potential, from the conversation and look at his current production and growth curve since arriving in Arizona. What you arrive at is. In Upton you get a player that is just now entering his prime. One that is a streaky hitter where is upside is huge but is prone to prolonged slumps. Who has had to learn to play the outfiled in the big leagues and to date hasn't shown that he's a threat to win a gold glove anytime soon. Who'll steal you 20 bases and come to the park everyday ready to play...

    So if you look at his numbers over the last three seasons by month. Therein lyes some of the answers to his value and it's fairy obvious, that his inabilty to consistantly put the ball in play has an adverse effect on his overall numbers. When his K/W ratio is close to or below 2 to 1 he's an impact player (see below). Conversley when it's 2.4 to 1 or above he's still a productive player, but not a guy that warrants hitting in the middle of the lineup.

    April 244-342-425-767 (K/W 76-34 or 2.23 to 1)

    May  263-333-458-791 (K/W 84-30 or 2.8 to 1)

    June 344-430-514-944 (K/W 67-35 or 1.9 to 1)

    July 286-371-516-887 (K/W 63-40 1.5 to 1)

    Aug 268-335-417-752 (K/W 65-27 2.4 to 1)

    Sept 275-344-507-847 (K/W 42-18 2.3 to 1)

     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    In response to Beantowne's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    Upton has not been as inconsistent as many here believe.

    Fact of the matter is that his three year month by month splits don't support your contensions...(I posted it on this thread a few day back). Unless you consider a swing of 200 points in OPS from his best to worst months over the coarse of a season to be consistent?

    I'm talking year-to-year as monthy splits are small sample sizes arbitrarily divided by a calander. Also, if you want to use injuries to explain Jacoby's numbers drop, Justin battled through injuries at various times in his career, and perhaps his numbers were effected by playing through injuries instead of bolting to Arizona to rehab.

    Moon,

    Not sure that I agree that a three year month by month breakdown where the sample for each month is greater than the 100 bats used by most to determine a hitters "ave" to be relevent as a statisical measure to begin a season, can be defined as small. Regardless of how you split a seasons worth of stats to look for trends...by games, at bats by the month, pre and post All Star etc. Consistency is definded by players that don't have large swings in batting average during a particular season. Uptons swing is close to 100 points over that span. In the end if he is to become the player that many thought he could be given his other worldly tool he needs to lessen the valleys while maintainig the peaks...

    The post I refered too is below;

    Count me among the group that would love to see Justin Upton in a Red Sox uniform. Comparing him to Ellsbury is irrelent in the big picture.

    In arriving at what would be fair value in return for his services. The aquiring team has to elimanate the word potential, from the conversation and look at his current production and growth curve since arriving in Arizona. What you arrive at is. In Upton you get a player that is just now entering his prime. One that is a streaky hitter where is upside is huge but is prone to prolonged slumps. Who has had to learn to play the outfiled in the big leagues and to date hasn't shown that he's a threat to win a gold glove anytime soon. Who'll steal you 20 bases and come to the park everyday ready to play...

    So if you look at his numbers over the last three seasons by month. Therein lyes some of the answers to his value and it's fairy obvious, that his inabilty to consistantly put the ball in play has an adverse effect on his overall numbers. When his K/W ratio is close to or below 2 to 1 he's an impact player (see below). Conversley when it's 2.4 to 1 or above he's still a productive player, but not a guy that warrants hitting in the middle of the lineup.

    April 244-342-425-767 (K/W 76-34 or 2.23 to 1)

    May  263-333-458-791 (K/W 84-30 or 2.8 to 1)

    June 344-430-514-944 (K/W 67-35 or 1.9 to 1)

    July 286-371-516-887 (K/W 63-40 1.5 to 1)

    Aug 268-335-417-752 (K/W 65-27 2.4 to 1)

    Sept 275-344-507-847 (K/W 42-18 2.3 to 1)

    [/QUOTE]

    I guess we can just agree to disagree. I don't see 100 PAs as a significant sample size to make definitive judgements over.

    Also, most players have wide swings in OPS from month to month.

    My point about arbitrary monthly data is valid. Have you done 30 day comparisons from the 15th of one month to the next? Maybe we'd see vastly different numbers with nearly the exact same sample size comparisons.

    Here's Jacoby's monthly splits in his 3 full seasons of play:

    2008: 836, 771, 591, 566, 741, 889  (323 differential from best to worst)

    2009: 671, 730, 879, 810, 748, 803  (208 differential)

    2011: 805, 827, 803, 1130, 912, 1067 (327 differential)

    Half season comparatives:

    Ellsbury:

    720/741  (21)

    747/796  (49)

    867/1000 (133)

    Avg Diff: 67

    Upton:

    918/862  (56)

    787/822  (35)

    881/922  (41)

    755/817  (62)

    Avg Diff: 49

     

     

    Full season comparisons:

    Ellsbury:

    729, 770, 928  (199 differential)

    Upton:

    899, 799, 898, 785 (123 differential)

     

    I just don't see Upton as being any more inconsistent as anyone else.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: ESPN proposes Sox trade for JUpton

    Moon,

    I think we're both making compelling arguments. however you appear to be stuck in the same mind set of hill55. while we can agree to disagree on the definition of consistency...I am not trying to arrive at nor argue which is the better player. 

    Ellsbury is a gold glove centerfielder and his stats place him among the best leadoff hitters the game. 

    Upton is a below average right fielder who is a middle of the pack #3 hitter. Who if he doesn't improve would be best suited to hit 5th...not too many five hole guys making 20M. What no one can project in the next two or three years is that either player will improve or regress.

    Which is the more valuable to their respective teams cleary that would be the younger player under the teams control. However if you're looking for a lead off hitter to play center Ellsbury would then be more valuable....if you're looking for a corner outfielder that projects to be an above average 5 hole hitter....Upton's your man....

     

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