Fangraph's Top Free Agents

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    Sox have 4 of the top 13...

     

    1) Cano  $196M/8

    2) Ellsbury  $112M/6

    3) Choo  $81M/5

    4) McCann $59M/4

    5) Garza $59M/4

    6) Granderson $56M/4

    7) Nolasco $50M/4

    8) Jimenez $49M/4

    9) Salty $45M/4

    10) Lincecum $40M/3

    11) E Santana $40M/3

    12) Napoli $40M/3

    13) S Drew $33M/3

    14) K Morales $33M/3

    15) N Cruz $32M/3

    16) Kuroda $30M/2

    17) Infante $28M/3

    18) C Beltran $27M/2

    19) Feldman $27M/3

    20) Nathan $21M/2

    21) Burnett $26M/2

    22) J Johnson $20M/2

    23) Haren $19M/2

    24) Halladay $18M/2

    25) Hudson $17M/2

    26) C Ruiz $17M/2

    27) Arroyo $17M/2

    28) Kazmir (16M/2

    29) Uribe $16M/2

    30) P Hughes $16M/2

    Then, Balfour, Loney, Byrd, J Hammel, Rodney, Maholm, Floyd, C Young, D Murphy, DeJesus, J Crain, McLouth, Mujica, M Ellis,  Colon, Pierzynski, R Hernandez

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     
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  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    If I had to sign just 3 guys from this list for the 2014 Red Sox (by value per dollar listed), I'd take Salty, C Beltran and Mujica.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to titomanageroftheyear's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    No way Drew gets that much guaranteed, sporting that smooth .050 BA and .700's OPS in part-time season work for 2013. 

    Choo and Morales look like possible market values and fits.

    I like looking ahead, on the eve of the WS. Good thread, Moongov.

    [/QUOTE]

    I think Choo gets more than $81M/5, and the Morales number looks low compared to others.

    I could see taking Choo, Morales and Salty as the best 3 for the money.

     

    BTW, Mijica had $11.5M/2 for his numbers.

    Other sleepers?

    Maholm $14M/2

    DeJesus $12.5M/2 (The Rays have an option.)

    J Crain $12M/2

    Colon $8M/1

    AJ Pier $7.6M/1

     

     

     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from fl+adam,. Show fl+adam,'s posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    jake, salty, naps or choo, mccann, morales.  If above numbers are correct then second option saves 1 year of total commitment and 1.29m per year.  Using last years stats the second trio would have a little more power and OBP, and a little less speed.

     

    Drew is another matter entirely.  He has earned another contract, and probably even the one proposed above, but I do not know if the Sox would want to go three years with him with bogarts and middie already there.  Tough choice.  Might be better with a super utility guy like Infante who can and has played all over the diamond.  2nd, 3rd, ss, LF, RF.  Together he gets 100 games, but no more than 25 games at any position.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from maxbialystock. Show maxbialystock's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents


    Great find, thanks, moonslav.  I don't think any of the four Sox salaries are way out of line, but I still think Ben C only goes after two of them. 

     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    To me Salty is the only one you have to sign.  It would be great to have Ells back, but not at that money. Naps and Drew are both replaceable, although I would not be upset to have either back at the money proposed.

    With Drew it seems to depend on what they think of Middlebrooks because I think Bogaerts starts next year.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from soxnewmex. Show soxnewmex's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    I'd re-sign Drew only.  More and more disinclined to over-pay for these guys when the low-priced subs won't be much if any drop-off.  We didn't sign any high-priced FAs for 2013 and here we are in the World Series.  Instead we went for several better than average guys with great attitudes.  I look at Tampa and Oakland, then I look at New York and Anaheim, and I say, it just doesn't make any sense to go that expensive top-dog free-agent route.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Great find, thanks, moonslav.  I don't think any of the four Sox salaries are way out of line, but I still think Ben C only goes after two of them. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think all 4 will get close to what is listed.

    2) Ellsbury  $112M/6

    I project he gets $90/5 or $105/6

     

    9) Salty $45M/4

    I project he gets $50M/5, hopefully with us.

     

    12) Napoli $40M/3

    He probably gets 3 years from someone, but I'd offer $26M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $30M/2 and maybe a club option 3rd year.

     

     

    13) S Drew $33M/3

    If we don't sign Napoli or Morales, I could see moving Middy to 1B and Bogey to 3B and signing Drew, but not for 3 years.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

     

    Saltalamacchia is a bit of a dilemma.

     

     

    He certainly was better as a catcher, but let’s not pretend he became an elite defender, or even close to one.

     

     

    The pitching staff has a familiarity with him, which is a definite bonus.  Also, he is fairly young for a free agent.

     

     

    But he was a very lucky hitter, with most of his offensive improvement bolstered by a lofty .372BABIP.    His xBABIP is a bit lower, at .330.   This means his .273 / .338 / .466 (.804) really should have been closer to .247 / .314 / .440 (.754).    Is he really worth that deal with an OPS 50 points lower?   The BA and OBP are identical to numbers posted by Ryan Doumit last year.

     

     

    Pros and cons…

     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from 37stories. Show 37stories's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Saltalamacchia is a bit of a dilemma.

     

     

    He certainly was better as a catcher, but let’s not pretend he became an elite defender, or even close to one.

     

     

    The pitching staff has a familiarity with him, which is a definite bonus.  Also, he is fairly young for a free agent.

     

     

    But he was a very lucky hitter, with most of his offensive improvement bolstered by a lofty .372BABIP.    His xBABIP is a bit lower, at .330.   This means his .273 / .338 / .466 (.804) really should have been closer to .247 / .314 / .440 (.754).    Is he really worth that deal with an OPS 50 points lower?   The BA and OBP are identical to numbers posted by Ryan Doumit last year.

     

     

    Pros and cons…

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Doumit only caught 43 games last year. The rest of his time was at DH or in the OF. Which underscores the point.

    Salty is not great, but for a catcher he is pretty darn good.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from notin. Show notin's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to 37stories' comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to notin's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

    Saltalamacchia is a bit of a dilemma.

     

     

    He certainly was better as a catcher, but let’s not pretend he became an elite defender, or even close to one.

     

     

    The pitching staff has a familiarity with him, which is a definite bonus.  Also, he is fairly young for a free agent.

     

     

    But he was a very lucky hitter, with most of his offensive improvement bolstered by a lofty .372BABIP.    His xBABIP is a bit lower, at .330.   This means his .273 / .338 / .466 (.804) really should have been closer to .247 / .314 / .440 (.754).    Is he really worth that deal with an OPS 50 points lower?   The BA and OBP are identical to numbers posted by Ryan Doumit last year.

     

     

    Pros and cons…

     

    [/QUOTE]

    Doumit only caught 43 games last year. The rest of his time was at DH or in the OF. Which underscores the point.

    Salty is not great, but for a catcher he is pretty darn good.

    [/QUOTE]


    Yeah, but Doumit was the closest offensive equivalent.  Salvado Perez had a similar OPS, but he is like 23 and its really not the same thing...

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to notin's comment:

     

    Saltalamacchia is a bit of a dilemma.

     

     

    He certainly was better as a catcher, but let’s not pretend he became an elite defender, or even close to one.

     

     

    The pitching staff has a familiarity with him, which is a definite bonus.  Also, he is fairly young for a free agent.

     

     

    But he was a very lucky hitter, with most of his offensive improvement bolstered by a lofty .372BABIP.    His xBABIP is a bit lower, at .330.   This means his .273 / .338 / .466 (.804) really should have been closer to .247 / .314 / .440 (.754).    Is he really worth that deal with an OPS 50 points lower?   The BA and OBP are identical to numbers posted by Ryan Doumit last year.

     

     

    Pros and cons…

     



    Salty did not have too much "familiarity" with Dempster, Lackey, Uehara, and others, but your point is well taken.

    On the higher than normal BAbip, I'm not going to argue that he wasn't luckier than normal, but maybe this had something to do with it ...

    LD%:

    2011: 21.3%

    2012: 22.8%

    2013: 28.6%

    (His GB% also went up from 30.6% to 32.8%.)

    He had 20 more ABs than 2012 and 21 more Line Drives. I'm not saying all those extra line drives accounted for the increase in BA and BAbip, but I'm sure it probably was part of it. (He had 26 more hits overall in 2013 to 2012.)

    For argument's sake, if you took away 21 hits (his extra line drives) from 2013's numbers his BA would go from .273 to .224.

    His BA in 2012 was .222.

    His high BAbip was probably some luck mixed in with hitting the ball harder than ever before (just not for HRs).

    Also, his BB% went from 8.5% to 9.1%, so that alone accounts for quite a bit on the OBP rise and not just the BAbip increase.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    6) Granderson $56M/4

    14) K Morales $33M/3

    22) J Johnson $20M/2

    30) P Hughes $16M/2

    These all look like stretches to me.  JJ was 2-8, with a 6.20, and a 1.66 Whip.  Hughes was 4-14 with a 5.19 and a 1.455 Whip.  I would love to see someone in our division sign those two guys for a combined $18M.

    Morales had a .787 and .785 over the past two years, no speed, and is strictly a DH.  Both Carp and Nava might be better players.

    Granderson is still good, but 4 years is too long.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from mef429. Show mef429's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    Salty should still be trending upwards too. he is just entering his prime. that should also be taken into consideration.

     

    PS nice rebuttle moon.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from OutofTownPATS Fan. Show OutofTownPATS Fan's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Great find, thanks, moonslav.  I don't think any of the four Sox salaries are way out of line, but I still think Ben C only goes after two of them. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think all 4 will get close to what is listed.

    2) Ellsbury  $112M/6

    I project he gets $90/5 or $105/6

     

    9) Salty $45M/4

    I project he gets $50M/5, hopefully with us.

     

    12) Napoli $40M/3

    He probably gets 3 years from someone, but I'd offer $26M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $30M/2 and maybe a club option 3rd year.

     

     

    13) S Drew $33M/3

    If we don't sign Napoli or Morales, I could see moving Middy to 1B and Bogey to 3B and signing Drew, but not for 3 years.

    [/QUOTE]

    what was the original contract offer to Naps prior to him settling on the 1 year deal 

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Joebreidey. Show Joebreidey's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    what was the original contract offer to Naps prior to him settling on the 1 year deal 

    39/3

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to OutofTownPATS Fan's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to moonslav59's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to maxbialystock's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Great find, thanks, moonslav.  I don't think any of the four Sox salaries are way out of line, but I still think Ben C only goes after two of them. 

     

    [/QUOTE]

    I think all 4 will get close to what is listed.

    2) Ellsbury  $112M/6

    I project he gets $90/5 or $105/6

     

    9) Salty $45M/4

    I project he gets $50M/5, hopefully with us.

     

    12) Napoli $40M/3

    He probably gets 3 years from someone, but I'd offer $26M/2 with PA incentives that could bring him to $30M/2 and maybe a club option 3rd year.

     

     

    13) S Drew $33M/3

    If we don't sign Napoli or Morales, I could see moving Middy to 1B and Bogey to 3B and signing Drew, but not for 3 years.

    [/QUOTE]

    what was the original contract offer to Naps prior to him settling on the 1 year deal 

    [/QUOTE]

    I think $40M/3.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from OutofTownPATS Fan. Show OutofTownPATS Fan's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    I think $40M/3.

    Thanks. why not throw him the same offer or the 2 yr like you mentioned up top w/ incentives. hopefully thats enuff to keep him

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    The thijg with Salty is how often do you see catchers reach FA at 28 he is a young guy. Even if he gets 5 years he will only be 33. I think teams will risk extra years because of his age.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from BosoxJoe5. Show BosoxJoe5's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    I think you can sign two the three of Drew, Napoli, and Ellsbury. The team doesnt have an easy replacement for Ellsbury so ideally it would come down to Napoli or Drew. I think Drew is more likely to get a multiyear from another team.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from moonslav59. Show moonslav59's posts

    Re: Fangraph's Top Free Agents

    In response to BosoxJoe5's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    The thijg with Salty is how often do you see catchers reach FA at 28 he is a young guy. Even if he gets 5 years he will only be 33. I think teams will risk extra years because of his age.

    [/QUOTE]

    And, many catchers "peak" later than other positional players. Take VTek for instance, he led the league in PBs at ages 27 and 28; he did not begin to dominate in CERA until age 35 (2007) , he did not hit over .270 for a full season until he was 31 years old; and he did not have 200+ PAs and an OBP over .350 until 31 years old. His best 5 year stretch was easily from ages 31 to 35 (2003 to 2007). There are examples of catchers doing very well at earlier ages, but I think more than any other position, the catching position has more "late bloomers" than any other every day position.

    Note on VTek:

    1997-2002: 2028 PAs  .264  54  260  (.335/.427/.762)

    2003-2007: 2530 PAs  .270  94  351  (.361/.464/.825)

    Even his numbers at 36 and beyond are nit that bad for a catcher, especially the HR and RBIs per PA:

    2008 - 2011:  1281 PAs  .218  45 146 (.308/.393/.701)

     

    I'm not assuming Salty is cut from the same mold as VTek, but they both were never good at throwing out runners, and maybe Salty will continue to improve his defense and staff handling as he ages. 

    Salty's 50 point spike in OBP this year may be a bit lucky, but he did improve his BB% and LD% significantly. He cut down of fly outs. I can see the odds being better that he continues to improve or stay the same rather than begin a decline at age 29.

     

     

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