Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion
posted at 8/3/2011 8:48 PM EDT
In Response to Re: FENWAY FACTOR - The Great Distortion
[QUOTE]Since hitting and pitching numbers are greatly effected by things like park dimensions and more specifically home park dimensions and related factors, distortions do occur. However, even though there are distortions (major ones in some cases like Boston or Oakland/Seattle/SD) and a team's "numbers" may go down if they were moved to another home park, it doesn't mean they are any better or worse than before: just their numbers change not their skill level. I get your point: if Boston played 81 games in Seattle, their offensive numbers would not be leading the league anymore, and their pitching numbers would be much better. The overall +/- differental might not change much, so wins and losses might be pretty close.
I seem to recall past years where the Sox home and road differentials were even greater than this year. There are some metrics that supposdly take venue into consdieration, but I am not sure they "do enough". There are certainly many Sox hitters who have "pumped up" numbers due to home field wonders. There are also many Sox pitchers who are passed over due to their "high" (unadjsted) ERA / WHIP, etc... This year our pitching staff has a very significant differential: Home: 4.28 / 1.355 (Opp's OPS: .730) Away: 3.53 / 1.172 (Opp's OPS: .663) Our "worst/best" pitchers at home (70+ PAs) are: 1) Miller 1.070 Opps's OPS 2) Lackey .869 3) Lester .777 4) Wake .769 5) Dice .743 6) Buch .718 7) Wheel .677 8) Albers .634 9) Aceves .631 10) Paps .623 11) Beck .560 12) Bard .467 Our worst/best away are: 1) Lackey .829 2) Wake .808 3) Miller .754 4) Wheel .745 5) Buch .698 6) Acev .651 7) Lest .632 8) Paps .601 9) Bard .594 10) Beck .521 11) Dice .491 12) Albers .479 Only 3 pitchers have done better on the road ( in red ). Our starters' ERA/WHIP home/away: Beckett 1.99 /1.011 2.38/0.846 Lester 3.86/1.449 2.75/ 1.030 Buch 3.94/1.469 3.20/1.184 Wake 5.29/ 1.235 4.81/1.397 Lackey 6.56/2.250 5.77/1.511 Miller 6.91/2.163 4.81/1.731 Dice-K 7.03/1.726 2.08/1.000 Only Wake has a better WHIP at home. Only Beckett has a better ERA. It is no wonder the lefty differentials are usually near the greatest. Some hitters and pitchers will be hurt or helped more than others by the dimensions of Fenway. It is hard to quantify and "adjust" the numbers accordingly. It's interesting to look at Wake's career home/awy splits (including his numbers with Pitt): Home: .744 OPS (4.31 ERA/1.325 WHIP) Away: .745 OPS (4.50 ERA/ 1.374 WHIP) Fenway: .750 (4.43/1.315) He's a flyball pitcher who has done pretty close to the same at Fenway or away. Josh Beckett: Home (Bos/Fla)/Away OPS: home: .681/ away .708 ERA/WHIP 3.84/3.78 & 1.207/1.228 Overall: (.694 OPS against) AL: 4.01/1.207 NL: 3.46/1.235 Fenway: .702 (4.28/1.207) Florida: .649 (3.15/1.214) Josh's OPS against and WHIP are pretty close at Fenway and AL overall. His ERA is 0.27 higher at Fenway than his overall AL ERA.
Posted by moonslav59
Precisely my point, Moon
. Wins/losses playing in another park would likely equal out, which is why Lackey, for ex, will win the same avg. number of games in Boston as he did in CA. More RA, but better support. Now, if he'd pitched for a losing franchise in CA, he would have a higher ceiling in Boston because he isn't a dominant pitcher. Poor defense could compromise him. Think how much Belanger/Robinson helped Cuellar and Dobson once they came from their respective teams.
I, too, don't buy into stat site venue adj. because places like Fenway or Wrigley defy the norm. The RedSox are the RedSox where ever they play. But the numbers they post reflect venue over personnel. Boston fans see AGONE as a .350+ hitter. That's Fenway induced. He wasn't anything close to that in SD, where his BA in Petco was between .265-.272 I think. Thus, fan perception was different.
Regarding the individual pitching splits, pitchers over time can learn to get the most out of Fenway. If you look at Wake's first 7or so years in Boston, his away numbers were clearly better than his home ones (take note DC).
But he eventually improved his command and had hitters hitting to the more specious parts of the park. That's a big reason why switch hitters hit righty against him.
Beckett is another good example. In 2007, his home ERA was almost double
his road ERA. And his record was reflective (9-5 at home/11-2 away).
What would CC's numbers have been pitching half his games in Fenway???
That CY YOUNG was Beckett's. It was a travesty. I think CC faced Boston/NY once
that whole year. When the playoffs began, CC took a dump against better comp. He was compromised by venue. But Josh took his game up a notch. Result? Egg on the voter's faces...
Since then, Beckett has learned to use the park's dimensions in better fashion.