Re: Free Agents, years and money
posted at 11/7/2013 10:30 AM EST
In response to andrewmitch's comment:
In response to moonslav59's comment:
In response to Flapjack07's comment:
He can't make 30 starts or come close to 200 IP's
He came within 1 start and 10.2 IP of these marks all of one season ago, so that's unlikely.
and he can't finish a season strong.
As he has a career ERA of 3.87 in August and 3.27 in September, that's also unlikely.
I believe in 6 seasons he's had 3 over 150 IP (Big Whoop) and 3 seasons at or below 100 IP (Horrific)
As I'm sure you know, Buchholz started 2008 in the major leagues, wasn't ready, went back to the minors, and returned in the summer of 2009, so injuries weren't the reason for his low IP totals in those years, as you imply. (In MLB/MiLB combined, Clay started 26 games in '08 and 32 games in '09.) That's like saying Bogaerts and Bradley aren't durable because they each played in <40 major league games this season.
So Buchholz has had four seasons (2010-13) in which he was on the major league roster all season, or would have been if not for injury. In two of those four, he started 28-29 games and pitched 170-190 innings, numbers that don't exactly scream "workhorse," but not "Mr. Glass," either. The other two, obviously, have been cut very short due to injury.
Do two injured years over a four-year period mean a player can never be relied upon, and will never live up to their potential? I'll leave that to you to judge...but you might want to take a look at the results of the age 27-28 seasons of, say, Curt Schilling or Roy Halladay.
I get that what was supposed to be a little boo boo ended up meaning three months on the DL...I'm frustrated by that as much as anybody, and by the fact that his career so far has not been all that it could be. I'm certainly not saying Buchholz has been a picture of durability (or consistent performance). But I am saying I wouldn't give up on him yet, and if I let him go it would not be cheaply. ("The equivalent of a draft pick"? Letting Stephen Drew walk will get you that.) The guy had, what, a 1.70 ERA? He was one of the best pitchers in baseball this year when he pitched. That's worth a little bit of patience.
Nice research flap.
Here's the total GS'd and IP by season:
'07 26 (3/23)
'08 26 (15/11)
'09 32 (16/16)
'10 29 (28/1)
'11 14 (14/0)
'12 30 (29/1)
'13 18 (16/2)
'07 148 (23/125)
'08 135 (76/59)
'09 192 (92/99)
'10 178 (174/4)
'11 83 (83/0)
'12 191 (189/2)
'13 112 (108/4)
Surely you're not comparing Day to Day Clay w/ Schilling and Halladay. Or are you?
Halladay failed to reach 200 IP and 30 starts in 5 of his first 8 seasons. Should the Jays have traded him for the equivalent of a draft pick?