Re: Gordon Edes says bat Crawford 2nd
posted at 2/26/2012 2:34 PM EST
In Response to Re: Gordon Edes says bat Crawford 2nd
[QUOTE] Last year, we faced 55 LH'd starters (34%). That's a very signifcant amount of games and PAs. CC does hit some LHPs well, so maybe we are talking about 25% of the games that he is not even close to being justified slotted 2nd... NOT EVEN CLOSE! Over the corse of a season our #2 slot gets about 770 PAs, so we are talking about over 190+ PAs. Last year we got a .371 OBP from our 2 slot. Should we really change that to .333? Crawford: Career: .333 vs RHPs: .343 vs LHPs: .308 Here's the breakdown of lost men on base over 770 PAs: 2011: .371 (On base293 per 767 PAs .393 Pedey (226/576) .351 Others (67/191) Give CC 700 PAs in the 2 slot and give the others 1 .350 OBP lie last year: .308 CC (215/700) .351 others (25/70) Total: .312 (240/770) That's a loss of 53 men on base over 770 PAs. Even if CC steals 70 bases, it wouldn't make up for 53 less men on base in front of AGon, Youk and Papi. And, these numbers are based on CC's career numbers, not his most recent numbers (which are worse, particularly vs LHPs.) This seems so clear to me. I find it hard to believe so many posters here are for this idea. Maybe it is because, as fans, we have been deprived of watching speed on our team for so long, there is a tendency to dream about how it would be so nice to see us have it for once.
Posted by moonslav59[/QUOTE]
I'm not sure you can look at it as simplistically as that Moon. For one, don't you think with the better protection hitting around him that his OBP is likely to improve? Plus if Ells is on base, Crawford's likely to see more fastballs.
But even it didn't, the 53 less men on base in front of Papi, Youk, and Agon from the #2 spot would be somewhat made up for in Pedroia batting in front of them in the #3 slot, wouldn't it?
Also, the increased production from the #6 slot would compensate for some of that.
I understand that the guys at the top of the line up get more ABs, but my feeling is that while you may be better off in one regard by making a line up change, that benefit will be cancelled out by weakening another part of your line up.
That's why I was wondering how many runs difference we are talking about over the course of the season, not just from the #2 hole, but from the team altogether. My understanding is that there wouldn't be much of a difference, but I honestly don't know.
And I mentioned one of the reasons for batting Crawford 2nd was because that's where he seems most comfortable. It's not to protect his ego, it's to help his comfort level, hence his confidence level. There's a difference, IMO. Baseball players are very much creatures of habit.