Re: Gordon Edes says bat Crawford 2nd
posted at 2/26/2012 4:39 PM EST
In Response to Re: Gordon Edes says bat Crawford 2nd:
Last year, we faced 55 LH'd starters (34%). That's a very signifcant amount of games and PAs. CC does hit some LHPs well, so maybe we are talking about 25% of the games that he is not even close to being justified slotted 2nd... NOT EVEN CLOSE! Over the corse of a season our #2 slot gets about 770 PAs, so we are talking about over 190+ PAs. Last year we got a .371 OBP from our 2 slot. Should we really change that to .333? Crawford: Career: .333 vs RHPs: .343 vs LHPs: .308 Here's the breakdown of lost men on base over 770 PAs: 2011: .371 (On base293 per 767 PAs .393 Pedey (226/576) .351 Others (67/191) Give CC 700 PAs in the 2 slot and give the others 1 .350 OBP lie last year: .308 CC (215/700) .351 others (25/70) Total: .312 (240/770) That's a loss of 53 men on base over 770 PAs. Even if CC steals 70 bases, it wouldn't make up for 53 less men on base in front of AGon, Youk and Papi. And, these numbers are based on CC's career numbers, not his most recent numbers (which are worse, particularly vs LHPs.) This seems so clear to me. I find it hard to believe so many posters here are for this idea. Maybe it is because, as fans, we have been deprived of watching speed on our team for so long, there is a tendency to dream about how it would be so nice to see us have it for once.I'm not sure you can look at it as simplistically as that Moon. For one, don't you think with the better protection hitting around him that his OBP is likely to improve? Plus if Ells is on base, Crawford's likely to see more fastballs.
Posted by moonslav59
1) CC had some good hitters right behind him in TB as well. Yes, it would help CC's numbers batting 2nd vs 6th, but the offset does not tip the balnce of the negatives.
2) I do not see his OBP being much higher than .330-.340, and never being higher than .310 vs LHPs-- a horrible number for a Sox 2 slot hitter.But even it didn't, the 53 less men on base in front of Papi, Youk, and Agon from the #2 spot would be somewhat made up for in Pedroia batting in front of them in the #3 slot, wouldn't it?
No, our 3 slot would actually be worse. AGon is better than Pedey in the 3 slot, esp against RHP. This is my major point. Moving CC to the 2nd slot does this:
1) The 2 slot will have a way lower OBP than if Pedey stays there.
2) The 3 slot will be downgraded from AGon to Pedey.
3) The 4 slot will be improved vs RHPs with AGon over Youk, but maybe worse vs LHPs with AGon vs Youk.
4) The 5 and 6 slots get improved. I did mentione that CC up 2nd "lengthens" our line-up by imroving our 6 slot, but nobody is going to convince me that downgrading the 2/3 slots is worth upgrading the 5/6 slots. What about CC getting about 75 more PAs than Papi and Youk? (Or that Pedey, AGon, Youk and Papi all get about 20 less PAs each over a season.)
Also, the increased production from the #6 slot would compensate for some of that.
I understand that the guys at the top of the line up get more ABs, but my feeling is that while you may be better off in one regard by making a line up change, that benefit will be cancelled out by weakening another part of your line up.
If every slot got 775 PAs over a season, maybe you could make this point, but it doesn't happen that way. Also, I see the greatest need for our line-up is to get as many people on base ahead of AGon, Youk and Papi as possible. This far outweighs any advantage of having 2 instead of 1 speedy guy up ahead of these 3 great hitters.
I also see a strong possibility that Bobby V won't even run these two ragged in front of the big 3 hitters. The dangers of running into outs has got to the point where both of these guys CS rates are close to the point of being not worth trying to steal (esp vs LHPs). I realize baserunning is much more than just SBs and CSs. CC will likely score more from 1B on a 2B than Pedey, although Pedey is a very good head-up base-runner in his own rights.
Pedey also had 26 SBs last year and 8 CSs in 2011, so is the upgrade to CC really that much of a game-changers in terms of speed?That's why I was wondering how many runs difference we are talking about over the course of the season, not just from the #2 hole, but from the team altogether. My understanding is that there wouldn't be much of a difference, but I honestly don't know.
I am near certain that having a .350 OBP vs RHPs and a .310 vs LHPs in the 2 slot, instead of a .370-.390 overall OBP from Pedey will have a huge negative impact on the run scoring of this team.
And I mentioned one of the reasons for batting Crawford 2nd was because that's where he seems most comfortable. It's not to protect his ego, it's to help his comfort level, hence his confidence level. There's a difference, IMO. Baseball players are very much creatures of habit.
I think this is a false paradigm.
People have said the same about Pedey... even moreso.
Pedey has hit very well in the 4 slot.
People said the same about Jacoby in the 1 slot, until last year.
People said the same about Papi in the 3 slot, but when they moved him to the 5th slot, he took off and hasn't looked back.
CC was injured last year. He was under a hot spot light. He was in a new fishbowl. A new park. A new batting slot. Are we really so certain, he did so poorly because of the uncomfortable batting slot? If he is the type of player that gets psyched out by this type of change, then he's not as great as many of you think he is. He is also likely to get upset or "uncomfortable" in high pressure situations as well.
He'll adjust to the 6th slot.
Oh, by the way, these recent numbers might surprise you. CC is not most comfortable in the 2 slot:
7th slot: .915 (141 PAs)
6th slot: .742 (196)
8th slot: .629 (113)
2nd slot: .460 (45)
3 slot: .890 (207 PAs)
2 slot: .833 (456)
2 slot: 668 out of 672 PAs (.817) (On base in 2 of 4 PAs not in 2 slot)
3 slot: .814 (99)
2 slot: .698 (381)
2 slot: .854
1 slot: .823
3 slot: .777
others: 2 hits in 3 PAs, including an HR
2 slot: .915 (381)
3 slot: .757 (176)
1 slot: .633 (96)
The 4 years from 2008-2011, I don't see any support for the idea that CC is most comfortable up 2nd. Before 2008, yes.